Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[TheEmu]

They were waiting for the school halls?

…or one of the 100 GP Superclinics to open…

 

[Dino84]

Re: Federal Election Sept 7, 2013 - Discussion and Comments

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd calls September 7 federal election - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)


Live blog: Prime Minister Kevin Rudd calls September 7 election - ABC News (Australian Broadcasting Corporation)

Looks like it's going to be early voting for me again then.

Scott.

 

[amaroo]

…or one of the 100 GP Superclinics to open…

Maybe he was just waiting until 2020 to do it all.

 

[quokka77]

Pre poll for me too, we'll be in the usa.

 

[spudseamus]

You never vote in the opposition you vote out the government if they deserve it !

 

[777]

Re: The "should we run a surplus" debate it's really important to understand that government revenue has collapsed in the fact of a global recession. (Apologies for the very boring graph from the treasury papers.)


The reason the government has been running a deficit is because they are taxing less (as a percentage of GDP and -- for a few years - in actual dollar terms) than under Howard and not because they have been spending wildly.

You can have an actual debate about whether the right thing to do in those circumstances is to cut spending or not but let's at least start that debate on the basis of what an incoming government will have to decide. The Liberals will have to choose between slashing expenditure and raising taxes. They can't have both. I'm genuinely interested to see what they are going to propose.

 

[quokka77]

@777 Yes it is an interesting dilemma. They have stated they will legislate all savings Labor has proposed. So that will get them to a $4billion dollar surplus in 2016. But a real solution would be to raise taxes *slightly* (income, GST) or merely freeze bracket indexation. Slowly moving away from negative gearing concessions on property would also be forward-thinking.

 

[amaroo]

Numbers, numbers, numbers......

TOTAL TAXATION REVENUE


SUMMARY

A feature of the Australian federal system is that the Commonwealth Government levies and collects all income tax, from individuals as well as from enterprises. It also collects a portion of other taxes, including taxes on the provision of goods and services. The revenue base of state governments consists of taxes on property, on employers' payroll, and on the provision and use of goods and services. The sole source of taxation revenue for local governments is taxes on property.

Taxes on income increased $26,310m (13%) while taxes on property increased $286m (1%) and taxes on provisions of goods and services increased $2,172m (2%). Taxes on income represented 59% of total taxation revenue for all levels of government and taxes on provision of goods and services, including the goods and services tax (GST) represented 24%.

[TABLE="width: 100%"]
[TR]
[TD="class: DefaultTextBold, width: 100%, colspan: 7"]

TOTAL TAXATION REVENUE​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 100%, colspan: 7"]

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[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 43%"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 9%"]

2006–07​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 9%"]

2007–08​

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[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 9%"]

2008–09​

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[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 9%"]

2009–10​

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[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 9%"]

2010–11​

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[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 10%"]

2011–12​

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[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 43%"]

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

$m​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

$m​

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[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

$m​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

$m​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

$m​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 10%"]

$m​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 100%, colspan: 7"]

---

COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 100%, colspan: 7"]

---

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 43%"]Taxes on income[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

189 066​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

208 233​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

200 997​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

186 660​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

204 546​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 10%"]

230 871​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 43%"]Employers' payroll taxes[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

350​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

381​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

377​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

507​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

505​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 10%"]

528​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 43%"]Taxes on property[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

15​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

15​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

16​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

12​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

13​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 10%"]

13​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 43%"]Taxes on provision of goods and services[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

71 452​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

75 863​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

75 141​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

78 865​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

81 788​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 10%"]

83 377​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 43%"]Taxes on use of goods and performance of activities[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

1 218​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

1 462​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

1 831​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

1 513​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

2 272​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 10%"]

3 099​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 43%"]Total taxation revenue[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

262 101​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

285 954​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

278 363​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

267 556​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 9%"]

289 124​

[/TD]
[TD="class: TableText, width: 10%"]

317 888​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="class: TableTextBold, width: 100%, colspan: 7"]

---

​

[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[777]

Numbers, numbers, numbers......

Those numbers prove the point. Even ignoring inflation the last Howard budget (07-08) collected $7b more in taxes than the 1st Rudd budget on and nearly $20b more than the second one. Under the "big taxing ALP" revenue took three years to return to Howard levels not including indexing for inflation. Take the '07 budget and index for inflation and the 11-12 revenue should have been about $10-20b higher.

Yep, the govt has run up a deficit but revenue has tanked. Whoever is elected next month will have to deal with this and i hope we actually get to hear what they're both going to do about it.

 

[amaroo]

Those numbers prove the point. Even ignoring inflation the last Howard budget (07-08) collected $7b more in taxes than the 1st Rudd budget on and nearly $20b more than the second one. Under the "big taxing ALP" revenue took three years to return to Howard levels not including indexing for inflation. Take the '07 budget and index for inflation and the 11-12 revenue should have been about $10-20b higher.

Yep, the govt has run up a deficit but revenue has tanked. Whoever is elected next month will have to deal with this and i hope we actually get to hear what they're both going to do about it.

Hmmm, the 2007 election was held Nov 24. Given caretaker provisions I.E. 39 days of the actual election campaign.....Howard was in the chair for around 1/3 of the 07/08 year.

Did tax receipts decrease? Sure, however, 10/11 and 11/12 look pretty good.

 

[Pukka]

You never vote in the opposition you vote out the government if they deserve it !

And they do deserve it.

 

[medhead]

They were waiting for the school halls?

Howard built school halls as well? Guess that explains his failure to build critical infrastructure. Pretty poor considering the alp is building school halls and infrastructure.

 

[medhead]

Numbers, numbers, numbers......

And it seems numbers are something that confuses you. If income and production(GDP) has increase, income tax also increasing means nothing. I'm sorry but try comparing to an actual base rather than cherry picking numbers that are bovine excrement.

 

[777]

Hmmm, the 2007 election was held Nov 24. Given caretaker provisions I.E. 39 days of the actual election campaign.....Howard was in the chair for around 1/3 of the 07/08 year.

The 2007/2008 financial year budget was delivered by Peter Costello on the 8th of May 2007. If you really want to fact check that you can read the whole exciting hansard speech here: 2007-08 Commonwealth Budget - Budget Speech

The first Rudd/Swan budget was delivered a year later on May 13th 2008. If you really want to endure the pain, you can read that one here: Wayne Swan's full 2008 Federal Budget speech | Townsville Bulletin News

Did tax receipts decrease? Sure, however, 10/11 and 11/12 look pretty good.

Costello increased taxes by 23b in the last year he was treasurer. It took 4 years for labor to increase them by that much again.

 

[cove]

Four of us will have to vote in London.

 

[777]

And it seems numbers are something that confuses you. If income and production(GDP) has increase, income tax also increasing means nothing. I'm sorry but try comparing to an actual base rather than cherry picking numbers that are bovine excrement.

There's no cherry picking there. Those numbers are a straight up explanation of what happened. Revenue collapsed because the federal government was over-reliant on a range of taxes on things that were hit hard by the GFC - corporate income taxes being a major one. As they collapsed (despite the country maintaining economic growth) any attempt to move the tax burden onto areas where there was more revenue and profits was resisted by the coalition and other vested interests as labor going mad with taxation.

For anyone who actually cares about tax policy, it is seriously worth reading the main recommendations of the Henry Review. Henry was Peter Costello's head of treasury and when Rudd came in he kept him in the role and appointed him to review the tax system as a whole. The report is long but to summarise it basically says that the economy is facing big structural shifts and we need to shift the tax base away from those doing it tough and towards those who can afford it. It then has a long list of recommendations to encourage competitiveness, promote growth, and capture the benefits of the resource boom for future generations. Rudd was smart to commission it and was (depending how you read it) inept at implementing it or knifed before he could.

I am not a massively partisan person but i am genuinely interested in policy. If Tony Abbott says he can dump the mining tax, dump the carbon tax, spend billions on "direct action", keep the carbon tax cut cuts, fund the Gonski education reforms, support the NDIS, introduce a massively expensive paid parental leave system and all the other stuff he says he will do then i'd be genuinely impressed if he can produce the numbers. Obviously labor are going mad with their $70b black hole stuff which i am sure is a worse case scenario in the same way that Turbull's "the NBN will cost $90b" line is but at the end of the day you really can't do all those things at once.

The coalition will have to make a choice between a lot of contradictory statements and i'd love to know what they are actually going to choose before we have to vote for them. Some of those choices may be hard but they'd earn my respect. Some, would probably do a lot of damage. But pretending there is no need for tough choices because, you know Howard-Costello we're better and all that, is campaigning for PM of fairyland.

 

[HarryB]

I am not a massively partisan person but i am genuinely interested in policy. If Tony Abbott says he can dump the mining tax, dump the carbon tax, spend billions on "direct action", keep the carbon tax cut cuts, fund the Gonski education reforms, support the NDIS, introduce a massively expensive paid parental leave system and all the other stuff he says he will do then i'd be genuinely impressed if he can produce the numbers.

Well, he has had an easy ride for three years so hopefully he is taken to task on his promises. Talk is cheap, lets see if he backs it up with something other than sprouting slogans.

 

[Hvr]

Interesting to hear Tony Abbott say that if there is a hung parliament he will not negotiate with the independents/minor parties (except I assume the National Party ) to form government.

Maybe he understands his limitations in not being able to deal with people who don't adhere to his dogma?

 

[drsmithy]

For anyone who actually cares about tax policy, it is seriously worth reading the main recommendations of the Henry Review. Henry was Peter Costello's head of treasury and when Rudd came in he kept him in the role and appointed him to review the tax system as a whole. The report is long but to summarise it basically says that the economy is facing big structural shifts and we need to shift the tax base away from those doing it tough and towards those who can afford it. It then has a long list of recommendations to encourage competitiveness, promote growth, and capture the benefits of the resource boom for future generations. Rudd was smart to commission it and was (depending how you read it) inept at implementing it or knifed before he could.

+1

There's a lot of good stuff in the Henry Tax Review, in particular a broad-based land tax, which would be a big help in bringing down real estate prices (or triggering a crash, depending on how you feel). Personally I think we also do need a fairly high top tax bracket that kicks in for, say, the top 1% of incomes, but other than that I struggle to find anything disagreeable in Henry's recommendations.

The coalition will have to make a choice between a lot of contradictory statements and i'd love to know what they are actually going to choose before we have to vote for them. Some of those choices may be hard but they'd earn my respect. Some, would probably do a lot of damage. But pretending there is no need for tough choices because, you know Howard-Costello we're better and all that, is campaigning for PM of fairyland.

If there's one thing we can be confident of from previous experience, the Liberals will be happy to give as much help as they can to those who don't really need it, while trying as hard as possible to make those who do need help feel guilty as sin that they're getting any.

 

[777]

Interesting to hear Tony Abbott say that if there is a hung parliament he will not negotiate with the independents/minor parties (except I assume the National Party ) to form government.

The irony is that the Liberal party is ALWAYS in minority govt federally. The coalition federally made up of: the Liberal Party of Australia, the Liberal National Party of Queensland, the National Party of Australia, The National Party of WA and the Country Liberal Party (NT). While it looks kind of coherent from the outside it's only a few years ago that the National party formed a government with Labor in South Australia and they have often threatened to do so in other states.

If he is saying "I will only form a Liberal party only government" he will need extra 20 seats!