Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[PLC]

Not directed at you 777. Just a general comment.

I think it is way more relevant to ask who you are going to vote for, rather than who you like. The first determines the result, the latter a popularity contest that ebbs and flows.

It is true that voting intention is the only reliable way to predict an election result. That is the 2-party preferred figure.

Better PM, who is more or less popular with women / men / cats / dogs etc may be interesting, but these measures have a bigger impact on column inches in newspapers than election results.

 

[Pushka]

The unemployment rate varies as to whether you use the political or economic standard.

 

[eastwest101]

Really, just look at the actual poll data, the leading (and in some cases Anti-Abbott) questions that they asked, the obvious one they didn't ask (do you prefer Abbott or Gillard?) that somehow made it into the headline, and tell me it isn't a junk exercise completely designed to generate a newspaper headline?

I think some people would argue that the 800 women polled did answer your obvious one of "do you prefer Abbott or Gillard?" in the very first question presented and those numbers: (If you make the assumption that the 800 women polled in 2010 and the 800 in 2013 are representative, as other people have said - the real poll on Sept 14 will be mostly making a decision about which major party these women will vote for with the consequences being pretty clear that ticking the ALP candidate will equal Gillard being PM or ticking a coalition box will equal an Abbot being PM).

Thinking about federal politics. If a federal election for the house of representatives was held today,
which one of the following would you vote for?

___________________________17-18__ 13-15
_____________________________Aug___ Feb
____________________________2010__ 2013
_____________________________%______ %
Labor Party ............................. 39_____ 36
Coalition ................................. 43_____ 46
The Greens ............................. 12_____ 10
Another party or independent........6______ 8

9% uncommitted or refused excluded


And I know its picky but I don't like that last bit though about 9% uncommitted or excluded (what - uncommitted in the recent poll or both polls?) or 9% refused to answer. I would have really wanted to know how many were uncommitted or excluded (whatever that means) in the 17-18th Aug as well so we could find out if women are more or less committed each party and leader than before the 2010 election.

 

[Pushka]

I used to get phoned about every week by Gallup polling about a variety of things. But I ended up taking our landline out because we were swamped with Indian call centres, mainly from Microsoft apparently (not!). But I do miss not bring able to participate.

Sure enough, a couple of days after each poll call, the results would be in the media.

I've also been in some focus groups too. I was in the Telstra 2 and 3 release groups and sworn to secrecy. Some of their pre focus group material was really bad.

 

[777]

I think some people would argue that the 800 women polled did answer your obvious one of "do you prefer Abbott or Gillard?" in the very first question presented and those numbers: (If you make the assumption that the 800 women polled in 2010 and the 800 in 2013 are representative, as other people have said - the real poll on Sept 14 will be mostly making a decision about which major party these women will vote for with the consequences being pretty clear that ticking the ALP candidate will equal Gillard being PM or ticking a coalition box will equal an Abbot being PM).

If some people argued that they'd be stupid. The paradox of politics in Australia right now is that while The Liberals have a strong lead over the ALP in most polls Gillard has a strong lead over Abbott as preferred PM. There is a large gap between those who prefer the liberal party and those who want Abbott to lead it.

The Liberals are so strong in the polls it probably wont matter but Abbott is among the least popular opposition leaders ever. Stories like the one today create the impression that that is changing but all they've done is take the party data and imply that applies to Abbott personally.

 

[Pushka]

Like I said way back. Mike Rann was THE most unpopular leader in Opposition. Yet when he became Premier, for a few years he was nominated the most popular Premier in Australia. Perceptions change when you move from Opposition to Leader.

 

[HarryB]

209 days until the election.

Is Rudd going to make another run at PM's job before the election?

He us trying his hardest to convince us otherwise so time will tell whether it'll happen or not. The best case scenario for Labor would be a John Howard / Alexander Downer style negotiation without all the ugly slandering we saw a year ago. Of course Howard and Downer were in opposition and didn't have the history so I can't see it happening this time. Additionally, despite knowing they would likely get a huge boost in the polls should they reinstall Rudd, the party members don't seem to like him.

It would put some serious pressure on Abbott if it did happen so it would make for and interesting year leading up to the election.

 

[drron]

I can just see the Coalition election ads if Kevin gets back-starring Julia Gillard,Wayne Swan,Nicola Roxon,Simon Crean et al. Would be hilarious.

 

[drron]

If some people argued that they'd be stupid. The paradox of politics in Australia right now is that while The Liberals have a strong lead over the ALP in most polls Gillard has a strong lead over Abbott as preferred PM. There is a large gap between those who prefer the liberal party and those who want Abbott to lead it.

The Liberals are so strong in the polls it probably wont matter but Abbott is among the least popular opposition leaders ever. Stories like the one today create the impression that that is changing but all they've done is take the party data and imply that applies to Abbott personally.

Actually the last poll had Julia as the preferred PM by only 2 percentage points-41:39

 

[777]

Actually the last poll had Julia as the preferred PM by only 2 percentage points-41:39

And? Unless your using special maths that's still behind behind. Even at a time when Gillard is clearly doing appallingly.

 

[777]

Like I said way back. Mike Rann was THE most unpopular leader in Opposition. Yet when he became Premier, for a few years he was nominated the most popular Premier in Australia. Perceptions change when you move from Opposition to Leader.

That's almost always the case. If Abbott became PM his numbers would likely rise but his record unpopularity won't simply vanish. Personally i think Abbott reminds me a bit of Jeff Kennet who was unpopular opposition leader but became premier due to it being handed to him by the uselessness of the other side. Kennett was a popular but highly polarising premier whose supported eroded very quickly when hit a turning point with the electorate. I suspect Abbott as PM will have a good run for a while but there's a risk that it could tip very quickly.

 

[Pushka]

If Rudd was successful in a challenge then half the Ministry would have to resign as they pilloried him publicly last time. Oh wait...

That's almost always the case. If Abbott became PM his numbers would likely rise but his record unpopularity won't simply vanish. . I suspect Abbott as PM will have a good run for a while but there's a risk that it could tip very quickly.

So why do people here bang on about popularity then? It's meaningless when the voting trend says the opposite.

 

[drron]

And? Unless your using special maths that's still behind behind. Even at a time when Gillard is clearly doing appallingly.

But not a strong lead as you said.Many on here are also saying TA is doing apallingly as well.

 

[777]

So why do people here bang on about popularity then? It's meaningless when the voting trend says the opposite.

It's not meaningless at all. Currently there is a very significant proportion of likely Liberal voters who are doing so in spite of their lack of support for Abbott. This is clearly the strategic hope that the ALP has and it is also an important consideration in how Abbott will be able to govern.

 

[Pushka]

It's not meaningless at all. Currently there is a very significant proportion of likely Liberal voters who are doing so in spite of their lack of support for Abbott. This is clearly the strategic hope that the ALP has and it is also an important consideration in how Abbott will be able to govern.

And we can say the same about Gillard. People voting labor but in spite of her. If people don't like negative oppositions then labor being negative about Abbott isn't going to work. As long as Albanese doesn't grace us with his whinge.

 

[HarryB]

And we can say the same about Gillard. People voting labor but in spite of her. If people don't like negative oppositions then labor being negative about Abbott isn't going to work. As long as Albanese doesn't grace us with his whinge.

I think the ALP have to play the Abbott unpopularity angle because its about all they've got at this stage, which is pretty sad. What's even sadder is that unless there is a leadership change on either side between now and September we are going to have one very unpopular leader.

As a rusted on Labor voter there will still be some reluctance to vote as I traditionally do given the boofheads running the show, however I could never, under any circumstances, vote for a party I find equally as bad and thin on the ground with talent whose leader is even more embarrassing than the current PM. That said, I expect a change of government and I will look forward to seeing how Mr Abbott handles the pressure which he doesn't do particularly well. He has made a lot of bold promises and if he doesn't deliver or goes back on his word then the "liar" taunts he has so frequently directed at Julia Gillard will come back to haunt him.

Whatever happens, I hope at some point they stop acting like 9 year olds in a school yard and start treating the voting public with some respect - neither side of politics can be proud of their recent form in this area.

 

[amaroo]

It's not meaningless at all. Currently there is a very significant proportion of likely Liberal voters who are doing so in spite of their lack of support for Abbott. This is clearly the strategic hope that the ALP has and it is also an important consideration in how Abbott will be able to govern.

Some people vote for their local member, some for the party & some for the leader.

At the last election - Peter Slipper was loathed by the great majority of the voters in Fisher.....however, he won the day with 54.1 of the two party preferred. Slipper's name was mud after years of reporting by the local rag on his disgraceful spending habits. I assume most people closed their eyes, ticked the box & thought of replacing the current Gov FWIW I didn't vote for this scoundrel - I reside in another electorate.

IMO if people want to replace JG/ALP they wont give a stuff who the alternative is.

 

[HarryB]

IMO if people want to replace JG/ALP they wont give a stuff who the alternative is.

So you have cough Type A and cough Type B and you choose B because you think A is slightly coughpier?

Our country is in trouble!

 

[Pushka]

So you have cough Type A and cough Type B and you choose B because you think A is slightly coughpier?

Our country is in trouble!

Pretty much sums it up.

 

[amaroo]

So you have cough Type A and cough Type B and you choose B because you think A is slightly coughpier?

Our country is in trouble!

That's democracy!

Ever wondered why LOTFAP doesn't have compulsory voting