Oz Federal Election 2013 - Discussion and Comments

[777]

Citation needed.

I see that the statements Howard made before the election were qualified. He didn't say interest rates were going to fall. He said that they would be lower under a Coalition government.

"It is an historic fact that interest rates have always gone up under Labor governments over the last 30 years, because Labor governments spend more than they collect and drive budgets into deficit," he said. "So it will be with a Latham Labor government."

I think he was actually spot on in that prediction. Of course, it was a prediction incapable of testing, because we were never going to be able to compare the Howard government that won against Latham with the Latham government that won against Howard.

He went on to say, "I will guarantee that interest rates are always going to be lower under a Coalition government.".

Taking that statement out of context, when clearly he was comparing the historical performances of various governments, and implying something else - that interest rates would fall - isa not quite accurate.

Nonetheless the statement was wrong because it reflects are pre-globalisation view on money markets and Interest rates. Where once interest rates were partially a product of government v. private sector domestic demand for the same limited money supply, today the markets for loans and cash have become so globalised that it is not a situation where the Australian government is competing with Australian businesses and households for the same $$. The Australian government are in a global market for debt and Australian household interest rates are determined by the RBA using them as an economic setting.

Rates have broadly fallen under this government despite modest deficits. Reserve bank cash rates the in US and UK are effectively at zero despite the governments running very large deficits. Household interest rates in Greece are lower than they are here so the nexus between government spending and domestic rates has well and truly broken.

The near record low interest rates we have at the moment (the only time they were lower under Howard was very brief blip to cushion the introduction of the GST) reflect the weakness of the economic outlook. If the coalition can improve that that they will rise not fall.

 

[Pushka]

I haven't seen the stats recently but last i looked Gillard's popularity broadly tracked Labor's. Abbott's lags well behind the Libs.

Cough cough. . (Sorry, can't pass up the opportunity)

 

[777]

Cough cough. . (Sorry, can't pass up the opportunity)

What about that statement isn't true? As of this morning Gillard's popularity is 4 points behind Labor's 2pp vote (and actually ahead of Labor's 1st preference vote). Tony Abbott is 14 points behind the Liberals!

 

[Pukka]

What about that statement isn't true? As of this morning Gillard's popularity is 4 points behind Labor's 2pp vote (and actually ahead of Labor's 1st preference vote). Tony Abbott is 14 points behind the Liberals!

And they are still winning despite Tony Abbot imagine if they had someone popular

 

[drron]

What about that statement isn't true? As of this morning Gillard's popularity is 4 points behind Labor's 2pp vote (and actually ahead of Labor's 1st preference vote). Tony Abbott is 14 points behind the Liberals!

Actually 14 points behind the Coalitions vote.And believe me many NP voters hate the Liberal leader whoever it is.

 

[Skyring]

The Herald/Nielsen poll found the gap between Ms Gillard and the former prime minister has grown, with Mr Rudd favoured by 61 per cent of respondents to just 35 per cent for her.
Read more: PM's poll pain: Abbott and Rudd more popular

There are three weeks until the Reps sits again, so unless Labor issues a general recall, Gillard has a while to turn things around. However, there will be another poll in a couple of weeks time, and there will certainly be intense media speculation about leadership during that period.

Rudd, I predict, will loudly present sound bites saying everyone should cool it, but will continue to work behind the scenes to topple Gillard. Going on past performance. It's in his personal interest to see the polls drop further.

 

[777]

Actually 14 points behind the Coalitions vote.And believe me many NP voters hate the Liberal leader whoever it is.

The flip side of that is a lot of Labor supporters want Abbott to stay because they think he's there only chance of winning!

 

[Pushka]

What about that statement isn't true? As of this morning Gillard's popularity is 4 points behind Labor's 2pp vote (and actually ahead of Labor's 1st preference vote). Tony Abbott is 14 points behind the Liberals!

Yes, ok, the statement is true. However, it bears no relationship on the outcome of the election, does it?

The flip side of that is a lot of Labor supporters want Abbott to stay because they think he's there only chance of winning!

Sure, their only chance, but I'd like to see to odds of even that happening. One chance in hell maybe?

 

[medhead]

Citation needed.

I see that the statements Howard made before the election were qualified. He didn't say interest rates were going to fall. He said that they would be lower under a Coalition government.

"It is an historic fact that interest rates have always gone up under Labor governments over the last 30 years, because Labor governments spend more than they collect and drive budgets into deficit," he said. "So it will be with a Latham Labor government."

I think he was actually spot on in that prediction. Of course, it was a prediction incapable of testing, because we were never going to be able to compare the Howard government that won against Latham with the Latham government that won against Howard.

He went on to say, "I will guarantee that interest rates are always going to be lower under a Coalition government.".

Taking that statement out of context, when clearly he was comparing the historical performances of various governments, and implying something else - that interest rates would fall - isa not quite accurate.

I didn't claim he said they were going to fall. Also interesting that you've taken my statement out of context of the discussion about economic performance.

 

[eastwest101]

I think the really interesting thing is that whichever major party changes leader first (before the election) then they could romp in.

The trouble is that the obvious replacements are so unpopular in their own party room (Rudd and Turnbull respectivley) that the party room is unable to move on their respective leader. The coalition party room has even more to lose as they seem to be travelling well compared to the ALP. There is always a possibility that Smith/Combet or Shorten may be talked into acting to be the circuit breaker to save the furniture but I doubt it as the Gillard will need to be blasted out of lodge either by the party or by the electorate.

Funnily enough - irrespective of your own persoanl preferences/politics - I have the feeling that a large part of the electorate actually do want to see the Rudd vs Turnbull election that they were denied in 2010.

Whatever happens I can predict that Swan is a dead treasurer walking from now to election day, he is the weakest link for the ALP and the PM would do well to eliminate him now (but can't due to factional/union power). From both major parties we can expect a lot of negative campaigning and claims of misogony, class warfare rhetoric, slicing and dicing the electorate into "winners and losers", some lying, hiding/ducking and weaving about their actual budget situation, a few political scandals to run as sideshows such as Slipper/Thompson and Obeid. Maybe we will get some actual long term policy announced....

But I think the current federal government is now so hated that it seems likely that the ALP will lose government, barring any major black swan events or catastrophies or a leadership change by either major party. Thats just my guess though, and anyone can be wrong when making predictions this far out!

 

[Pukka]

Yes, ok, the statement is true. However, it bears no relationship on the outcome of the election, does it?


Sure, their only chance, but I'd like to see to odds of even that happening. One chance in hell maybe?

Abbot is 1.2 to be next PM

Black Caviar was 1.1 to win on Saturday.

So fairly short odds for sure

 

[777]

Yes, ok, the statement is true. However, it bears no relationship on the outcome of the election, does it?

If you read back over what i've written my point is very specific: Tony Abbott is uniquely unpopular opposition leader whose position only looks good in comparison to an even more unpopular government. Whether it will have an effect on this coming election remains to be seen but it clearly should be of some concern to both sides of politics and will clearly have some consequences for an incoming coalition government.

 

[Pukka]

I think the really interesting thing is that whichever major party changes leader first (before the election) then they could romp in.

I can't see the Lib's getting rid of Abbot with the polls as they are, they're just keeping him off Tv so he can't make any headline grabbing mistakes.

As for Krudd I don't think he wants the hospital pass I think he wants to see Gillard totally humiliated and then come back as the savior. I know people will say he wants the best for ALP but I think he feels wronged and wants revenge. He's not really playing for the team at the moment

 

[Pushka]

If you read back over what i've written my point is very specific: Tony Abbott is uniquely unpopular opposition leader whose position only looks good in comparison to an even more unpopular government. Whether it will have an effect on this coming election remains to be seen but it clearly should be of some concern to both sides of politics and will clearly have some consequences for an incoming coalition government.

Federally his position may be unique, but exactly the same situation occurred here in SA as I've already explained. I'd like to see Howards statistics though, I'm not sure he was all that popular in opposition either?

The position of Opposition will always be an unpopular one. You lost the election so while you still represent your seat, you lost! The job specifications are to be pretty much opposing everything the government is doing. That is the job.

I wonder if this shift in Abbott's approval rating is because people are now transitioning to seeing him as a new PM and not as opposition leader anymore.

I think Rudd is putting his face out there too much for someone who is a back bencher and who has no plans to make the move. But I don't think he will do it before the election. No one would put their hand up to face overwhelming defeat the way the polls are going. But there will be a bun fight after the election. Just my 2 cents.

 

[PLC]

Keating led Howard as preferred PM in 1996. Didn't do him much good.

 

[serfty]

I believe some of the previously longer odds have been Shortening ... p

 

[Skyring]

As for Krudd I don't think he wants the hospital pass I think he wants to see Gillard totally humiliated and then come back as the savior. I know people will say he wants the best for ALP but I think he feels wronged and wants revenge. He's not really playing for the team at the moment

The key to Rudd's ambitions is watching what media invitations he accepts. When he's feeling down, he stays away from the cameras. When he's feeling up and up, you can't stop him!

Not a team player, no. He obviously is set on making another move, but remember last year's challenge, when he was publicly bagged out by some very senior Labor figures? If he were to sit in the big chair again, the Coalition's election campaign advertising is not just planned and written, but actually on film!

I'm surprised Gillard has gotten this far, to be frank. I've written her off several times in the past. But it must be tough being a Labor spin doctor nowadays: both alternatives are unpleasant.

My money is still on Bob Carr to win a ballot for leader and call a snap election.

 

[amaroo]

As for Krudd I don't think he wants the hospital pass I think he wants to see Gillard totally humiliated and then come back as the savior. I know people will say he wants the best for ALP but I think he feels wronged and wants revenge. He's not really playing for the team at the moment

Good on him - in the words of Keating......I'm going to do you slowly

IMO he's not wasting his energy on plucking Gillard (she doesn't need any assistance) the real target is Billy Shorten & his cronies.

 

[medhead]

Good on him - in the words of Keating......I'm going to do you slowly

IMO he's not wasting his energy on plucking Gillard (she doesn't need any assistance) the real target is Billy Shorten & his cronies.

Keating actually said "I want to do you slowly". When asked about calling the election. I'm sure Gillard won't give the same line to Abbott.

 

[777]

My money is still on Bob Carr to win a ballot for leader and call a snap election.

How will he do this as a Senator?