Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

You'll see lots of creative routings as a result of Covid, where airlines try to capture latent demand for travel when it is permitted. Look at QQ CBR-MCY-CNS for example. Not all of these will work but don't be surprised if QF launch all sorts of unexpected routes.

Status Run made easy then.

 

[dajop]

Not all of these will work but don't be surprised if QF launch all sorts of unexpected routes.

QF will probably just let others pioneer new routes (like QQ is), cherry pick the ones they want and ultimately the instigator will abandon such routes.

 

[Lynda2475]

All the chatter on last nights news was for NZ-NSW bubble, and a clear statement from Feds that there will be no Qld/NZ bubble permitted until they open domestic borders.

 

[dajop]

Bubbles .... sigh ....groundhog day.

 

[jakeseven7]

All the chatter on last nights news was for NZ-NSW bubble, and a clear statement from Feds that there will be no Qld/NZ bubble permitted until they pen domestic borders.

Great so we in QLD are held hostage yet again by our CHO who has no backing or support from any of her equivalent medical peers.

It is crazy how we have ended up in this mess up here

 

[HappyFlyerFamily]

Bubbles .... sigh ....groundhog day.

Bubble and bubbling along.....same old, same old.....lol

 

[jase05]

You'll see lots of creative routings as a result of Covid, where airlines try to capture latent demand for travel when it is permitted. Look at QQ CBR-MCY-CNS for example. Not all of these will work but don't be surprised if QF launch all sorts of unexpected routes.

Whilst true I won’t hold my breath waiting for QFi to return to ADL.
More likely to get Junkstar on a ADL-NZ route

 

[RAM]

For Aussies trapped overseas many states are now upping the number of returnees allowed.


Only a matter of time now before Vic resumes International Quarantine in Vic too. Nov?

Yet again there is more spin than substance with the 'increased' capacity.

Prior to 4 July around 600/day were allowed into NSW. Gladys has 'kindly' agreed to allow an extra (up to) 100/day to 450/day. So still 1/3rd below the early capacity provided yet now all arrivals have to pay for their quarantine vs NSW paid for it previously.

Anyone get the impression this is all being done for Qld State election purposes only? Or perhaps to start the international student trade back into Sydney to prop up the high rise unit market?

In August DFAT approvals for departure were nearly the same as for the previous 4 months combined. NSW's extra 3,000/month will not eliminate the backlog - merely cut its growth rate by 1/5th.

 

[Himeno]

At this rate QF will run ADL-NZ direct flights before QLD opens up................

Oh, who am I kidding QF hate us

What would happen first? QF CBR-AKL or ADL-AKL?

 

[antycbr]

Yet again there is more spin than substance with the 'increased' capacity.

Prior to 4 July around 600/day were allowed into NSW. Gladys has 'kindly' agreed to allow an extra (up to) 100/day to 450/day. So still 1/3rd below the early capacity provided yet now all arrivals have to pay for their quarantine vs NSW paid for it previously.

Anyone get the impression this is all being done for Qld State election purposes only? Or perhaps to start the international student trade back into Sydney to prop up the high rise unit market?

In August DFAT approvals for departure were nearly the same as for the previous 4 months combined. NSW's extra 3,000/month will not eliminate the backlog - merely cut its growth rate by 1/5th.

In the interests of equity can you please provide analysis of the actions of other state premiers in handling international quarantine? NSW is 1/3 of the population but providing 1/2 of the national quarantine facilities.

 

[Duffa]

Seems my predictions were hopelessly optimistic
Cathay have canned my flights to Europe 20th Nov and back 12th Dec
They have refunded all my points (48 hours) and will refund taxes with zero penalty - very happy with the service.
Too bad about the holiday
Have booked Europe for next May. Here's hoping

 

[RAM]

In the interests of equity can you please provide analysis of the actions of other state premiers in handling international quarantine? NSW is 1/3 of the population but providing 1/2 of the national quarantine facilities.

Proportion relative to population IMHO is not the relevant statistic, I believe it should be made in comparison to what the proportion of international arrivals were coming into Sydney airport before CV.

NSW prior to CV was taking 46 to 47% of all international arrivals. So 1/2 now is nothing special as it is half of a reduced number due to Melbourne not currently taking any.

Prior to Melbourne outbreak, NSW was taking a little over 30% of all international arrivals for hotel quarantine when travellers did not have to pay for their quarantine. Pre-covid NSW State Govt & Sydney Airport operator had laid out plans to increase the market share to low to mid 50s. Either way, 1/2 is close enough to the pre-covid figure of 46 to 47%.

The NSW Govt & Sydney Aiprort were happy enough to be taking the revenue in the good times, so it is not unreasonable to expect them to take their fair share in the bad. Prior to the Melbourne outbreak - NSW was not taking our fair share. If we had then the figure would have been closer to 800+ per day.

Other States

Initially the NT Govt took 100% of potential CV infected international travellers as that was where the Wuhan flights all went to. NSW (& other States) did not want them. Very shortly thereafter the NT Govt introduced pay-your-way as crafty operators figured it was much cheaper to fly to Darwin than Sydney, Brisbane, Melbourne or Adelaide.

Once that charge was introduced then the international arrivals into NT dropped 97% in the following 4 weeks. Flows into Qld and Melbourne skyrocketed, Sydney increased somewhat as did Adelaide & Perth.

In the period from end April to mid/late June - Victoria was taking around the same number of international arrivals as Sydney despite pre-covid Sydney having around 35-40% more international air arrivals. So NSW was under-accepting & Victoria was taking more than its share. Victoria was accepting the largest number of flights from India, all flights from Nepal where as Sydney was getting a large proportion of its arrivals from the US, South America & the UK.

Post Melbourne 2nd wave then all international arrivals into Melbourne were stopped. NSW cut the daily arrivals first on July 4th and then again on July 14th (I think it was) to the 350/day figure.

 

[Pushka]

In the interests of equity can you please provide analysis of the actions of other state premiers in handling international quarantine? NSW is 1/3 of the population but providing 1/2 of the national quarantine facilities.

Qatar flew 150 people into Adelaide last night. I did hear of a couple having a wedding reception in a city hotel Saturday week. They received an email last Friday cancelling the reception (2 weeks notice) because the Govt had requisitioned their hotel for immediate quarantine. Many of their guests were staying at the Hotel as well. I'm pleased Qatar is flying people in because that guarantees flights go out which is what we need. I think SA is accepting around 600 at a time.

 

[antycbr]

Qatar flew 150 people into Adelaide last night. I did hear of a couple having a wedding reception in a city hotel Saturday week. They received an email last Friday cancelling the reception (2 weeks notice) because the Govt had requisitioned their hotel for immediate quarantine. Many of their guests were staying at the Hotel as well. I'm pleased Qatar is flying people in because that guarantees flights go out which is what we need. I think SA is accepting around 600 at a time.

I've thought for a long time that a good use for our airlines would be running "dirty" flights from international terminals to distribute pax around the country to their home states. I firmly believe that quarantine should occur in your state or territory of permanent residence. HQ could also be distributed out to regional centres in this manner. From a risk perspective the pax have flown 7+ hours already in an aircraft so I don't see the risk profile changing (and you could have spacing between pax).

Airlines fly to Sydney because they can make money from doing so, nothing really to do with Sydney Airport having the lowest landing charges or best experience airside in the handling of the aircraft as I am pretty sure neither of these things apply.

If they could make money from flying to Townsville they would. I don't see that the people of NSW should bear the costs (the pax charge does not truly cover the cost to the state) of HQ for other parts of the country because of commercial decisions of airlines.

I'd be prepared to treat VIC as a special case.

 

[Lynda2475]

n the period from end April to mid/late June - Victoria was taking around the same number of international arrivals as Sydney despite pre-covid Sydney having around 35-40% more international air arrivals. So NSW was under-accepting & Victoria was taking more than its share. Victoria was accepting the largest number of flights from India, all flights from Nepal where as Sydney was getting a large proportion of its arrivals from the US, South America & the UK.

Im not sure where you are getting your stats but SYD has taken majority of international arrivals both before and since Vic stopped accepting international arrivals. This article which gives number as at mid June, shows Vic had taken some 10k less international arrivals than NSW pre wave 2.

The pre covid flight arrival rate should be the indicator - as a large portion of those either went home or connected onto other domestic flights.

 

[jase05]

They received an email last Friday cancelling the reception (2 weeks notice) because the Govt had requisitioned their hotel for immediate quarantine.

I was unaware the government could legally do that but I know a couple of hotels were refusing to act as a quarantine hotel

 

[antycbr]

I was unaware the government could legally do that but I know a couple of hotels were refusing to act as a quarantine hotel

I would too if I was a hotel operator - everyone knows about the Stamford and Rydges in Melbourne for all the wrong reasons...

 

[dajop]

I don't see that the people of NSW should bear the costs (the pax charge does not truly cover the cost to the state) of HQ for other parts of the country because of commercial decisions of airlines.

The fact is that Sydney is Australia's "global city". For many years the people of NSW of Sydney have reaped the benefit of being the gateway to Australia and a major driver of economic activity. It's not an unreasonable for them to pay the incremental costs, as a long term beneficiary.

That aside, really this issue would go way if the federal government paid the costs, after all who controls the national border? Then it wouldn't be all this petty breakdown of people into states, and recognise that we are all "people of Australia", and the whole point of Australia is to share the burdens and benefits around. Otherwise, why not just disband the Commonwealth altogether?

 

[drron]

Well New Zealand has already backed away from the first bubble with Australia.Air NZ had initially stated that flights to Norfolk Island from AKL would resume on October 1st but recently decided not to resume them until March 2021.

Air NZ delays return to Aussie spot

The Australian holiday hotspot of Norfolk Island has been devastated by Air New Zealand’s decision to delay the return of its frequent flights to the Pacific island.

www.news.com.au

Quite strange as they have a limited service already from BNE.They have also said they will start flying SYD-NLK from October 1st.
The Norfolk Island Administration has declared that they are now open for tourism even though a few locals are still scared by the prospect.

 

[hb13]

Only a matter of time now before Vic resumes International Quarantine in Vic too. Nov?

The report is published on 6 Nov - and then they will review and decide when Intl flights come back - I would say maybe around Xmas - if we are really lucky.

Post automatically merged: Sep 28, 2020

We really need to broach the idea of bracelets so people can isolate at home. Choice thing. Hotel stay or bracelet.

I completely agree - this will get the travel industry running again, as well as the economy.