Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[CityRail]

I will put my money on parts of Asia from October and Europe/US for 2021.
We will see greater bubbles and more bubbles formed around the world and they'll eventually join.

 

[AIRwin]

I will put my money on parts of Asia from October and Europe/US for 2021.
We will see greater bubbles and more bubbles formed around the world and they'll eventually join.

Hope none bursts...

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I'll put money on sooner than later.

Oz needs tourist dollars and opening up to travellers from countries with no community transmission should be fairly low risk

Countries with no community transmission is a very short list.

NZ and Pacific Islands will be part of the bubble. ie No 14 day quarantine.

All other countries will requite the quarantine period fora long time yet.

I think that Government will want the International student market reactivated. But at least initially that will be with a quarantine on entry. That is quite do-able for people that may be doing a 1-3 year course.

 

[RAM]

Countries with no community transmission is a very short list.

NZ and Pacific Islands will be part of the bubble. ie No 14 day quarantine.

All other countries will requite the quarantine period fora long time yet.

I think that Government will want the International student market reactivated. But at least initially that will be with a quarantine on entry. That is quite do-able for people that may be doing a 1-3 year course.

Typically international students are not around for 52 weeks/year typically only in Australia for max 33 weeks a year which matches Week 1 through to end of exams for each term or semester, once that's finished they're gone. They move out, all the 'for lease' signs are out and most stand empty from early November through to mid February. Quite a number used to leave when the university had 2 semesters.

Living quite near to the biggest overseas student serving university - it is a regular site to see massive piles form outside the unit blocks, share houses etc as they empty out what they've been unable to sell off.

The big questions for any 'exceptions' remains the question of transiting airports on the way to Australia. Spending 90+ minutes in the battery hen-like queues going through security screening before then going into the modern day 'stock-pens' aka boarding lounges raises the risk of cross-contamination/infection.

Likewise the descisions to be made about passengers (possibly) being required to wear masks - does that mean a 10+ hour flight to/from Australia will be food & drink-less? Otherwise, everybody taking off their masks while they eat or have a drink pretty much defeats the purpose of having masks worn at all. Or at least much reduces any benefit gained.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

The big questions for any 'exceptions' remains the question of transiting airports on the way to Australia. Spending 90+ minutes in the battery hen-like queues going through security screening before then going into the modern day 'stock-pens' aka boarding lounges raises the risk of cross-contamination/infection.

Just to be clear I was advocating 14 day quarantine arrival for isolating students unless they were from a Covid Free Country (ie say NZ in a month). Those from CV Free Countries would require direct flights, or if transiting that they just be refuelling with no disembarkation at the the transit airport.

 

[RAM]

Just to be clear I was advocating 14 day quarantine arrival for isolating students unless they were from a Covid Free Country (ie say NZ in a month). Those from CV Free Countries would require direct flights, or if transiting that they just be refuelling with no disembarkation at the the transit airport.

Yes, understood quaranting.

Only question - where & at who's expense? As one seen with the '14 days in another country' quarantine requirement initially tried - many just ignorred it & stupidly then posted their selfies on social media. One Middle Eastern country's press highlighted that as the likely cause of their first CV cases.

Quarantine would have to be in Australia, under guard & at their expense IMHO.

The International Student industry on the other hand want any requirements to be at no cost to the students, nor the institutions - just the Australian taxpayer = Political mess.

 

[mrsterryn]

How do you think the graduated return to international travelling will occur?
New Zealand first
I think USA willbe very close to the bottom considering the inability to maintain a stable rate of deaths
How about England?

 

[p--and--t]

How do you think the graduated return to international travelling will occur?
New Zealand first
I think USA willbe very close to the bottom considering the inability to maintain a stable rate of deaths
How about England?

If you compile a list in order of countries of perceived "safety" by most measures and requiring minimal intervention on return, then the UK would be at least half way down the page. NZ, at least a dozen Pacific Islands, Taiwan, Sth Korea, and many others would be ready for visitation before the UK

Oh but wait - politics will intervene.

 

[RAM]

How about England?

After what was on the news today - I think it will be a LONG time until the UK gets included.

Today's news - UK Airline & Tourism industry push back on proposal to introduce from mid-June 14-day self-isolation for people arriving from overseas.

No wonder the CV rate in the UK has been so bad - they've never stopped people coming in from anywhere. If I was in France a month ago & began to feel unwell after seeing how high the death rate is (then 69% of cases) - I'd buy a ticket to London asap and head to the nearest NHS Hospital rather than risk the odds in a French hospital....

Direct international flights may well be long before flights requiring transit in another country. If so then Emirates, Etihad, Qatar etc will be in trouble as will any European destinations.

 

[drron]

The ranking of countries by deaths per million population is one way to look at how a country has done.I used this site-

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

number 1 is worst and 140 the least deaths per million.
Number 1 is Belgium followed by Spain,italy and the UK.
New Zealand is 71,we are 75.
Just worse are South Korea 67,Japan 69 and Qatar 70.
Death rates lower than ours-Singapore 78,Malaysia 80 and China 81.
Thailand rates 115.
Taiwan is counted with China but with their known deaths and population they would be 132.

 

[bjm76]

So perhaps we will see NZ and Pacific Islands first, then bubbles with say Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea...

I wonder if the low infection ate in Thailand is true though...

 

[boomy]

I’m puzzled why there are no talks about resuming travel to Taiwan. While I respect NZ achievements, Taiwan did better than any other country without even going into lockdown.

 

[RAM]

The ranking of countries by deaths per million population is one way to look at how a country has done.I used this site-

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

number 1 is worst and 140 the least deaths per million.
Number 1 is Belgium followed by Spain,italy and the UK.
New Zealand is 71,we are 75.
Just worse are South Korea 67,Japan 69 and Qatar 70.
Death rates lower than ours-Singapore 78,Malaysia 80 and China 81.
Thailand rates 115.
Taiwan is counted with China but with their known deaths and population they would be 132.

This site is also very useful, especially the column about tests per 100,000 population.

Coronavirus Update (Live): 131,307,090 Cases and 2,857,945 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Pandemic - Worldometer

Live statistics and coronavirus news tracking the number of confirmed cases, recovered patients, tests, and death toll due to the COVID-19 coronavirus from Wuhan, China. Coronavirus counter with new cases, deaths, and number of tests per 1 Million population. Historical data and info. Daily...

www.worldometers.info

At one stage in late February we ranked at 5th most tests (of countries > 1 million pop'n). Our ranking has fallen off significantly since then.

The US was less than 1/3rd our rate in mid April, now they're around 90% & gaining.

The massive divergences within European country figures suggests that flights to/from Europe may be delayed equally as long as to the US.

What I find interesting is why the media fixation with Germany (90 deaths/million) as such as well-done response when countries that share a border with Germany such as Austria (68 deaths/million), Czech Republic 26/Mn, Poland is a standout at 20/Mn and around 15 other European countries with case histories over the same period have produced much better results?

Looking at some of the other border sharing countries: Belgium 740/Mn, France 403/Mn, The Netherlands 316 & Switzerland 211/Mn for completeness.

Makes the top Australia/Europe flight pairs of London, Frankfurt, Munich, Paris, Amsterdam & Zurich not so obvious for approval this side of March 2021.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

Yes, understood quaranting.

Only question - where & at who's expense? As one seen with the '14 days in another country' quarantine requirement initially tried - many just ignorred it & stupidly then posted their selfies on social media. One Middle Eastern country's press highlighted that as the likely cause of their first CV cases.

Quarantine would have to be in Australia, under guard & at their expense IMHO.

The International Student industry on the other hand want any requirements to be at no cost to the students, nor the institutions - just the Australian taxpayer = Political mess.

Yes essentially agree, but it may be as we derive economic benefit that the quarantine is partially subsidised.

The students, and other such as business travellers or even leisure travellers, would need to pay for the accommodation and meal component, but perhaps the additional security, supervision and administrative costs is wholly or partially paid for from the Australian Government Coffers.

We all have an interest in re-activating as much of our economy as possible. This includes education and tourism and the more these sectors are inactive the more the government (the tax payers) will be paying out in centrelink payments, and the less PAYG, GST and other taxes that will be collected.



I certainly would not be in favour of any form of self-isolation as that has clearly just been abused both in Australia and overseas.

 

[DC3]

Oh, yes. The Bubble. . Boy in the Bubble.

 

[lovetravellingoz]

I’m puzzled why there are no talks about resuming travel to Taiwan. While I respect NZ achievements, Taiwan did better than any other country without even going into lockdown.

I think it is more that NZ is the logical initial partner:

• There are half a million Kiwis in Australian and 75 K Aussies living in NZ
• Trade and Tourism $ are both much higher than with Taiwan
• Tourist numbers are higher both ways. We are each countries second most important source of tourists after China
• Proximity - Much quicker flight times

With the Pacific Islands the $ are a lot less, but there is a lot of shared population from the Islands in Both Australia and NZ

I think that a god idea is to get the initial bubble up and working, and then after that is proven to have worked well to then look at expansion into other CV free Countries plus to have people from other countries enter as long as they quarantine on entry.

 

[RAM]

I’m puzzled why there are no talks about resuming travel to Taiwan. While I respect NZ achievements, Taiwan did better than any other country without even going into lockdown.

China Airlines has maintained flights to/from Australia, not sure whether just to ensure freight capacity exists between Taipei & Australia or to 'fly the flag' given so many Chinese Airlines are flying multiple times a day to Australia.

Flightradar24 shows multiple Chinese flights to/from Australia as I type as well (Shanghai Airlines, 3x China Southern, Air China & Xiamen Air) as the Taiwanese carrier China Airlines heading into Sydney.

Interested to see the passenger loads for April in the official Australian statistics

 

[tgh]

The published figures have to be taken with a large spoonful of of skepticism..
The recording and reporting methodology of the figures varies , as does the political manipulation.
China with 48 cases per million population .. India with 46, Kenya with 12 , South Africa with 159, Zealand with 310, Au with 372..
We can have no useful idea at all of the current infection levels world wide….

 

[boomy]

I think it is more that NZ is the logical initial partner:

• There are half a million Kiwis in Australian and 75 K Aussies living in NZ
• Trade and Tourism $ are both much higher than with Taiwan
• Tourist numbers are higher both ways. We are each countries second most important source of tourists after China
• Proximity - Much quicker flight times

With the Pacific Islands the $ are a lot less, but there is a lot of shared population from the Islands in Both Australia and NZ

I think that a god idea is to get the initial bubble up and working, and then after that is proven to have worked well to then look at expansion into other CV free Countries plus to have people from other countries enter as long as they quarantine on entry.

All the points you make are good and valid. I have no objection to first restarting travel to NZ and some pacific islands. Having said that our economy got hit hard and we need all the help we can get. Anything to do with Covid19 I trust Taiwan, so far they proved to handle it better than anyone so at the very least our gov should consider them as one of our priority travel partners once Int travel is back.

Also worth to note that Taiwan did everything with no international help, not even from WHO since they are not recognised as an independent country. Despite that Taiwan did reach out and helped other countries with emergency critical supplies. I hoped our gov would recognise that and make an effort to include them as preferred travel partner.

 

[Captain Halliday]

The ranking of countries by deaths per million population is one way to look at how a country has done.I used this site-

COVID-19 deaths per capita by country | Statista

COVID deaths worldwide were highest in Peru, topping a list that compares deaths per million in 210 countries worldwide.

www.statista.com

number 1 is worst and 140 the least deaths per million.
Number 1 is Belgium followed by Spain,italy and the UK.
New Zealand is 71,we are 75.
Just worse are South Korea 67,Japan 69 and Qatar 70.
Death rates lower than ours-Singapore 78,Malaysia 80 and China 81.
Thailand rates 115.
Taiwan is counted with China but with their known deaths and population they would be 132.

The itinerary for our next scheduled trip in September includes four of the ten worst per capita.

In February I gave up any hope of the trip going ahead and these stats just reinforce that view.

Waiting, waiting... for the airline to cancel so I don’t have to take the $ hit.