Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drron]

Except the naysayers aren't offering any real alternatives other than 'lock down the elderly and vulnerable'. I'm not sure that's a fair approach.

No that is what you interpret us so called naysayers believe.I have tried to explain the position to you before but will have another go.
Lockdown is not a specific term.It can mean a severe lockdown as per Victoria.It can also mean having restrictions on usual activities such as in NSW.
Did you know that many aged care facilities were locked down in the 2009 swine flu pandemic.It certainly didn't become the cause of much discussion.The lockdown consisted of staff using PPE and being questioned re flu symptoms.Only some places took temperatures as far as I am aware.Visitors were not forbidden in the majority but had to wear PPE,sign in and be questioned and the numbers of visitors and time of stay limited.So the elderly were not locked away from family and friends.

As to the well aged population they should be told what should be done,those that have home nursing should also be supplied with PPE and the Nursing staff to be trained in proceedures to adopt.You could also go to things that anyone with a healthcare card gets a supply of masks if you want.

For those of us aged that are mobile surely it is up to us to be responsible for our health.Some of course won't be sensible and they may well pay a severe price for their actions.

As to the comments on vaccines it is glaringly obvious that many have no idea of the practical points of vaccines.You say as long as you and your aged relatives are vaccinated things are fine.However there is no quarantee that the vaccine will prevent you or your relatives will not get the infection or indeed a more mild version but it will reduce your chances of getting infected.But the more of the population that remains un vaccinated the more is your risk.

As to safety the chance of more issues is greater when the vaccine is in more widespread use.
Also the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are new technology.We have no experience with potential problems which may arise with widespread use.The Astra vaccine is old technology and I am certainly more confident that it will be safe.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

No that is what you interpret us so called naysayers believe.I have tried to explain the position to you before but will have another go.
Lockdown is not a specific term.It can mean a severe lockdown as per Victoria.It can also mean having restrictions on usual activities such as in NSW.
Did you know that many aged care facilities were locked down in the 2009 swine flu pandemic.It certainly didn't become the cause of much discussion.The lockdown consisted of staff using PPE and being questioned re flu symptoms.Only some places took temperatures as far as I am aware.Visitors were not forbidden in the majority but had to wear PPE,sign in and be questioned and the numbers of visitors and time of stay limited.So the elderly were not locked away from family and friends.

As to the well aged population they should be told what should be done,those that have home nursing should also be supplied with PPE and the Nursing staff to be trained in proceedures to adopt.You could also go to things that anyone with a healthcare card gets a supply of masks if you want.

For those of us aged that are mobile surely it is up to us to be responsible for our health.Some of course won't be sensible and they may well pay a severe price for their actions.

As to the comments on vaccines it is glaringly obvious that many have no idea of the practical points of vaccines.You say as long as you and your aged relatives are vaccinated things are fine.However there is no quarantee that the vaccine will prevent you or your relatives will not get the infection or indeed a more mild version but it will reduce your chances of getting infected.But the more of the population that remains un vaccinated the more is your risk.

As to safety the chance of more issues is greater when the vaccine is in more widespread use.
Also the Moderna and Pfizer vaccines are new technology.We have no experience with potential problems which may arise with widespread use.The Astra vaccine is old technology and I am certainly more confident that it will be safe.

Agree the more people vaccinated the better. But Moderna is saying having the vaccine will reduce the severity ('100% success rate in reducing severity'.). That's all my elderly parents and elderly relatives need. They can accept the risk from there on.

Whichever definition of lockdown... 'light' or 'severe', I'm not a supporter of a two-tiered system where some can party while others can't go to the RSL to see their mates.

 

[drron]

Agree the more people vaccinated the better. But Moderna is saying having the vaccine will reduce the severity ('100% success rate in reducing severity'.). That's all my elderly parents and elderly relatives need. They can accept the risk from there on.

Whichever definition of lockdown... 'light' or 'severe', I'm not a supporter of a two-tiered system where some can party while others can't go to the RSL to see their mates.

Sorry Moderna saying their vaccine reduces the severity of the disease is spin.I believe it was less than 10 in the vaccinated group developed Covid.As 99% have mild disease the chances are there wouldn't have been any severe cases.It will be found out when in general use.

 

[dajop]

Sorry Moderna saying their vaccine reduces the severity of the disease is spin.I believe it was less than 10 in the vaccinated group developed Covid.As 99% have mild disease the chances are there wouldn't have been any severe cases.It will be found out when in general use.

According to the source I read it was 11.

Of the 196 volunteers who contracted COVID-19 in the more than 30,000-person trial, 185 had received a placebo versus 11 who got the vaccine. The company reported 30 severe cases - all in the placebo group - which means the vaccine was 100 per cent effective at preventing severe cases. The trial included one COVID-19-related death in the placebo group.

As with any statistics, my basic scientific training would suggest the uncertainty is quite high with a sample size of 11, especially given the low frequency of severe complications in those contracting COVID. I'd love to see the error bar on that conclusion.

I don't think we're naysayers, but those with any sort of basic scientific training should ask questions before accepting press releases verbatim.

Source:

Moderna to apply for emergency use of COVID-19 vaccine in US, Europe; says it is 94.1% effective

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts: Moderna said it will apply for US and European emergency authorisation of its COVID-19 vaccine on Monday (Nov 30) based on full results from a late-stage study showing its vaccine was 94.1 per cent effective with no serious safety concerns.It also reported a 100 per cent

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[jakeseven7]

The Pfizer-BitNtech vaccine has been approved for use in the UK by the MHRA, will start to be rolled out next week. The first approved one globally.

Covid-19: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine judged safe for use in UK

The UK is the first country to approve the Pfizer vaccine - with 800,000 doses due to arrive soon.

www.bbc.co.uk

UK and US really have nothing to lose...

oh well they can be the real world evidence for us...

 

[Flashback]

More than happy to be.

 

[OATEK]

More than happy to be.

Goodonya!

 

[jakeseven7]

More than happy to be.

Good luck

 

[Pushka]

More than happy to be.

Hoping the son in UK will join you too, he hates immunisations but is highly prepared to do this one. Likely very down the list though. County of Kent.

Post automatically merged: Dec 3, 2020

According to the source I read it was 11.


As with any statistics, my basic scientific training would suggest the uncertainty is quite high with a sample size of 11, especially given the low frequency of severe complications in those contracting COVID. I'd love to see the error bar on that conclusion.

I don't think we're naysayers, but those with any sort of basic scientific training should ask questions before accepting press releases verbatim.

Source:

Moderna to apply for emergency use of COVID-19 vaccine in US, Europe; says it is 94.1% effective

CAMBRIDGE, Massachusetts: Moderna said it will apply for US and European emergency authorisation of its COVID-19 vaccine on Monday (Nov 30) based on full results from a late-stage study showing its vaccine was 94.1 per cent effective with no serious safety concerns.It also reported a 100 per cent

www.channelnewsasia.com

So a high success rate in preventing the disease onset is an Achilles heel then when it comes to the question of reducing severity. Cant win that one really.

 

[ayushamity]

Sooooo 3rd December today. Must be getting the travel ban extension to 17 March any day now.

 

[ayushamity]

Prof Skerritt, head of TGA has done an interview and presser today on vaccines.

He is also vice chair of an international regulator group for covid vaccines inlcuding FDA, EMA etc.

He has mentioned approval for vaccine not expected until February, running with the federal govt guideline of March, which is somewhat disappointing, given the UK has already gone, FDA is mere days away, and we are going to sit on our hands for 2 months.

reason given was that the TGA has no legislative equivalent of an emergency use authorization unlike the other country regulators. This seems a bit of a cop out- as if the govt couldn't pass such a thing with bipartisan report, and have it approved over the Christmas break on such terms.

so no emergency fast tracking for us

 

[Sydney BE]

It worries me as I really want to get back to UK mid next year..however I know in Australia I will be back of the queue for a vaccine so I won't have any chance in the first few months. Im planning on leaving for more than 3 months so will be able to apply for the exemption.

If the UK has managed the roll out better I'd likely opt to get the vaccine there so I don't run in to issues re-entering Australia. Even though the reason id be leaving unvaccinated is the fault of government delaying roll out

 

[Brettmcg]

FYI, in case anyone is interested, there has been a slight, but possibly significant change to some wording on the ABF website with regards to travel exemptions.

You are now eligible for an exemption if your travel is for your business/employer.



Previously (as late as the middle of last week) the wording was:

• "your travel is essential for your business/employer

Anyone who has followed these developments throughout the year would know that these slight changes often precede other announcements.

While I can't imagine too many business travellers will be looking to get 'out and about' at the moment, it will be interesting to follow whether this results in an uptick in approvals, just as the introduction of the 3+ month category did.

 

[ayushamity]

Anyone who has followed these developments throughout the year would know that these slight changes often precede other announcements.

Well the current ban ends 17 Dec so we really do need an update about now for the extension of ban till 17 March

 

[Pushka]

FYI, in case anyone is interested, there has been a slight, but possibly significant change to some wording on the ABF website with regards to travel exemptions.

You are now eligible for an exemption if your travel is for your business/employer.

View attachment 234975

Previously (as late as the middle of last week) the wording was:

• "your travel is essential for your business/employer

Anyone who has followed these developments throughout the year would know that these slight changes often precede other announcements.

While I can't imagine too many business travellers will be looking to get 'out and about' at the moment, it will be interesting to follow whether this results in an uptick in approvals, just as the introduction of the 3+ month category did.

Well there is our reason to get an exemption right there. Except our business needs would take us to the UK!

 

[Pushka]

Interestingly nephew is currently mid air from Paris flying to Japan then on to Sydney to arrive tomorrow morning. The last week saw many flights on Japanese airlines open up for passengers to come back to Australia. I wonder if there was something that was discussed when Morrison visited a couple of weeks ago.

 

[DC3]

Well there is our reason to get an exemption right there. Except our business needs would take us to the UK!

Maybe pull a few strings and get the vax while you’re over there.

 

[Pushka]

Maybe pull a few strings and get the vax while you’re over there.

Last night we discussed taking up smoking!

 

[Brettmcg]

Maybe pull a few strings and get the vax while you’re over there.

This is a really interesting question. What is the likelihood that non-citizens overseas might be able to receive a vaccine wherever they find themselves when it becomes available?

I have an exemption and plan to head to Europe for 3-4 months from the end of March 2021, however if, during that period, it became likely I could receive the vaccine in Australia, I may choose to stay in Australia until I can do that. The alternative would be to try and source the vaccine while overseas...

 

[Sydney BE]

This is a really interesting question. What is the likelihood that non-citizens overseas might be able to receive a vaccine wherever they find themselves when it becomes available?

I have an exemption and plan to head to Europe for 3-4 months from the end of March 2021, however if, during that period, it became likely I could receive the vaccine in Australia, I may choose to stay in Australia until I can do that. The alternative would be to try and source the vaccine while overseas...

It will probably depend on how that country is going vaccinating their citizens. There are a few EU countries that we get reciprocal medicare so potentially it may fall under that