Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

Unless you have work or compelling family reasons in reality there is no reason in pandemic times to travel overseas. I have close family in the Uk and am prepared to quarantine at home if I am able to travel there at the end of the year.
What is reality this year may well not be reality next year.

I'm not talking about now. If you look at my original statement, I'm talking about 8 - 10 months from now, on the assumption that the pandemic has largely gone thanks to mortality rates decreasing severely due to the vaccine. Covid-19 spread is not going away in the next few years and possibly never. The vaccines are supposed to basically bring the mortality rate down to what flu is or better. Australia will never know how effective the vaccine is because there is effectively no cases there.

If, as a country you're not willing to open up if your whole population is vaccinated (and in theory protected) to at least people coming who are vaccinated - will the borders ever really open up?

If the government then decides that they will "ease" things to allow you to home quarantine for two weeks, isn't this just allowing the rich and well off to continue to travel and the poor and not so wealthy not? Because I can tell you right now, not everyone can afford to quarantine for two weeks, along with their whole family who live in the same house.

 

[Pushka]

I'm not talking about now. If you look at my original statement, I'm talking about 8 - 10 months from now, on the assumption that the pandemic has largely gone thanks to mortality rates decreasing severely due to the vaccine. Covid-19 spread is not going away in the next few years and possibly never. The vaccines are supposed to basically bring the mortality rate down to what flu is or better. Australia will never know how effective the vaccine is because there is effectively no cases there.

If, as a country you're not willing to open up if your whole population is vaccinated (and in theory protected) to at least people coming who are vaccinated - will the borders ever really open up?

If the government then decides that they will "ease" things to allow you to home quarantine for two weeks, isn't this just allowing the rich and well off to continue to travel and the poor and not so wealthy not? Because I can tell you right now, not everyone can afford to quarantine for two weeks, along with their whole family who live in the same house.

I think you just need to wait until winter is over, the vaccine is all done for the moment and there is a sense that we know what we are left with. Do you remember the Swine Flu pandemic?

 

[hb13]

Just to highlight the ridiculousness of this all, NZ has one case in 2 months and the government halts quarantine free travel for 3 days.

Australia-New Zealand travel bubble suspended amid new strain fears across the Tasman

The Federal Government suspends quarantine-free travel for New Zealanders arriving in Australia for 72 hours amid fears of a South African strain of COVID-19 across the Tasman.

www.abc.net.au

Just for one second think about the disruptions this causes and then think about the fact that this has been happening for months between the states.

 

[Pushka]

Just to highlight the ridiculousness of this all, NZ has one case in 2 months and the government halts quarantine free travel for 3 days.

Australia-New Zealand travel bubble suspended amid new strain fears across the Tasman

The Federal Government suspends quarantine-free travel for New Zealanders arriving in Australia for 72 hours amid fears of a South African strain of COVID-19 across the Tasman.

www.abc.net.au

Just for one second think about the disruptions this causes and then think about the fact that this has been happening for months between the states.

The woman had symptoms and was in the community for quite some time before being tested again. She has the South African variety. NZ'ers are taking it very seriously as she had many close contacts post symptoms and moved around a lot. I think it makes perfect sense.

 

[33kft]

Just to highlight the ridiculousness of this all, NZ has one case in 2 months and the government halts quarantine free travel for 3 days.

I suspect the reason for agreeing to the NZ bubble originally was an expectation of reciprocation, and now we're left with a one-way system which is largely useless, and that combined with the circumstances makes it a threat without great benefit for Australia. I'm not sure it fits any narrative frankly, and yet I do agree the state border closures are over the top.. but not many people are going to equate federal government international changes with the inter-state sniping that's been going on.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I suspect the reason for agreeing to the NZ bubble originally was an expectation of reciprocation, and now we're left with a one-way system which is largely useless, and that combined with the circumstances makes it a threat without great benefit for Australia. I'm not sure it fits any narrative frankly, and yet I do agree the state border closures are over the top.. but not many people are going to equate federal government international changes with the inter-state sniping that's been going on.

I don't. The country is essentially covid free and we should be able to travel wherever we want within the country as is our implied right by constitution.

Feds closing borders, while regrettable, is agreeable to me if it stops us from having to resort to internal border closures.

At least that's how I would prefer it to be.

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

Step 1)vaccinate everyone that wants it
Step 2) stop infringing on peoples right to free travel
Step 3) there is no step three, unless you want to go the extra mile and find a polly and tell them to do one.

 

[PineappleSkip]

Furthermore, home quarantine has been shown not to work.

Que? Close contacts of cases are told to quarantine at home and many countries have it for incoming travellers. I've done it myself. There is boundless guidance - just google it - on how to work it, and various sorts of compliance mechanisms.

 

[Ric]

I just hope that the NZ case will not trigger the government into going for 21 days HQ!!
As it is, I am dreading the 14 days HQ already when I return end of March.

 

[Must...Fly!]

I just hope that the NZ case will not trigger the government into going for 21 days HQ!!
As it is, I am dreading the 14 days HQ already when I return end of March.

There really is no need for 21 days.

Because if someone got cross infected at day 20 then out in the community and infectious, say, 7 days later - we'd be saying why not 28 days!

Maybe (MAYBE) the only thing they could consider doing if so concerned is mandate a test 7-10 days after release from HQ, regardless of symptoms or not.

 

[N860CR]

The key is vaccinations. And we need to look at facts. The UK had a totally uncontrolled outbreak and this is the end result from 2020;

Under 10 years: 4 deaths
Under 20 years: 20 deaths - 0.02% of all deaths
Under 30 years: 124 deaths - 0.15%
Under 40 years: 436 deaths - 0.54%
Under 50 years: 1,499 deaths - 1.85%
Under 60 years: 4,969 deaths - 6.15%
Under 70 years: 12,806 deaths - 15.84%
Under 80 years: 31,505 deaths - 38.98%
Under 90 years: 63,426 deaths - 78.47%
Over 90 years: 17,404 deaths - 21.53%

So yes, it’s terribly sad that people over 80 have died in large numbers. However the data quite clearly shows this only significantly impacts those over 60. So once they’re vaccinated, I see nothing more than a negligible risk.

That said, for some reason logic has been thrown out the window in the last twelve months so I can’t see an intelligent, fact driven approach being taken.

 

[hb13]

Que? Close contacts of cases are told to quarantine at home and many countries have it for incoming travellers. I've done it myself. There is boundless guidance - just google it - on how to work it, and various sorts of compliance mechanisms.

I'm talking about in reference to travellers coming back and quarantining in a hotel vs at home. If it works so well - why has the Australian government decided against it?

Furthermore, my overarching point is that if you quarantine at home, your family or those living with you must quarantine as well for two weeks. This is not feasible for many people. So at least quote me in context in future.

Post automatically merged: Jan 26, 2021

The key is vaccinations. And we need to look at facts. The UK had a totally uncontrolled outbreak and this is the end result from 2020;

Under 10 years: 4 deaths
Under 20 years: 20 deaths - 0.02% of all deaths
Under 30 years: 124 deaths - 0.15%
Under 40 years: 436 deaths - 0.54%
Under 50 years: 1,499 deaths - 1.85%
Under 60 years: 4,969 deaths - 6.15%
Under 70 years: 12,806 deaths - 15.84%
Under 80 years: 31,505 deaths - 38.98%
Under 90 years: 63,426 deaths - 78.47%
Over 90 years: 17,404 deaths - 21.53%

So yes, it’s terribly sad that people over 80 have died in large numbers. However the data quite clearly shows this only significantly impacts those over 60. So once they’re vaccinated, I see nothing more than a negligible risk.

That said, for some reason logic has been thrown out the window in the last twelve months so I can’t see an intelligent, fact driven approach being taken.

Agreed. But this isn't what the government is doing. They have decided just leaving everything closed is best. And things are likely to stay closed for years.

 

[Flashback]

I'm not talking about now. If you look at my original statement, I'm talking about 8 - 10 months from now, on the assumption that the pandemic has largely gone thanks to mortality rates decreasing severely due to the vaccine. Covid-19 spread is not going away in the next few years and possibly never. The vaccines are supposed to basically bring the mortality rate down to what flu is or better. Australia will never know how effective the vaccine is because there is effectively no cases there.

If, as a country you're not willing to open up if your whole population is vaccinated (and in theory protected) to at least people coming who are vaccinated - will the borders ever really open up?

If the government then decides that they will "ease" things to allow you to home quarantine for two weeks, isn't this just allowing the rich and well off to continue to travel and the poor and not so wealthy not? Because I can tell you right now, not everyone can afford to quarantine for two weeks, along with their whole family who live in the same house.

Sounds just like the golden age of travel and here we were thinking we'd all missed out

 

[PineappleSkip]

if you quarantine at home, your family or those living with you must quarantine as well for two weeks

This is simply wrong, I can't find any country or Australian State which requires this, in any context including returned from overseas with an exemption. Google the various guidelines for home quarantine/home isolation, Australian and Overseas.

 

[Flashback]

This is simply wrong, I can't find any country or Australian State which requires this, in any context including returned from overseas with an exemption. Google the various guidelines for home quarantine/home isolation, Australian and Overseas.

Here's an example for you then: Coronavirus (COVID-19): how to self-isolate when you travel to England

People who share a household with anyone self-isolating after returning from the above countries now also need to self-isolate until 10 days have passed since anyone they live with was last in one of these countries. These enhanced measures are in place in order to prevent the spread of new strains of coronavirus (COVID-19) into the UK.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I'm talking about in reference to travellers coming back and quarantining in a hotel vs at home. If it works so well - why has the Australian government decided against it?

I think part of the problem must be how do you get everyone home from the airport? HQ you all go into the one bus. Home quarantine you'd have 250-300 pax per flight using all sorts of ways... private car, taxi, ubers, public transport. How do you effectively control all of that?

Once we have the vaccine... perhaps that won't be a problem.

 

[hb13]

I think part of the problem must be how do you get everyone home from the airport? HQ you all go into the one bus. Home quarantine you'd have 250-300 pax per flight using all sorts of ways... private car, taxi, ubers, public transport. How do you effectively control all of that?

Once we have the vaccine... perhaps that won't be a problem.

Yeh I absolutely agree. Home quarantine is not a solution - particularly as to how you get 250+ pax home without spreading the virus from getting off the plane to the house and the fact that people living with you must also isolate.

 

[hb13]

This is simply wrong, I can't find any country or Australian State which requires this, in any context including returned from overseas with an exemption. Google the various guidelines for home quarantine/home isolation, Australian and Overseas.

I genuinely have no idea what you're talking about, it makes no sense whatsoever.

Firstly, as this thread states, we are talking about international travel. With regards to international travel, every single person arriving into Australia (apart from NZ) must quarantine in a hotel.

Secondly, I'm living in the UK currently. When we arrive into the UK from abroad, we must also quarantine - but at home. Everyone in the same household must also quarantine as well. Does it make sense for you to quarantine in the same room and house and not for the other person living with you? No - it doesn't. That's why Australia requires hotel quarantine and not home quarantine because home quarantine does not work - as I and many here have outlined - for a variety of reasons.

 

[jakeseven7]

I genuinely have no idea what you're talking about, it makes no sense whatsoever.

Firstly, as this thread states, we are talking about international travel. With regards to international travel, every single person arriving into Australia (apart from NZ) must quarantine in a hotel.

Secondly, I'm living in the UK currently. When we arrive into the UK from abroad, we must also quarantine - but at home. Everyone in the same household must also quarantine as well. Does it make sense for you to quarantine in the same room and house and not for the other person living with you? No - it doesn't. That's why Australia requires hotel quarantine and not home quarantine because home quarantine does not work - as I and many here have outlined - for a variety of reasons.

Yes and especially in a country that is essentially covid free.

UK has probably been too late to even bother with HQ - they’ve just announced they are setting it up for high risk countries now (wayyyy too late) but I suspect if they had responded faster and were in a similar position there is no way they would be allowing home quarantine either.

 

[scaredeycat]

Lots of posters on this thread complaining that we can't travel. I share your pain.
However...
As someone working in health, with a family member living in London, it is important to realise just how lucky we really are...
London hospitals see record Covid patient numbers as Boris Johnson issues fresh stay home warning | Evening Standard
Had Australia simply taken the attitude that "we have to learn to live with this thing" the reality is that many of us would be in a far worse position than where we are currently. I know life sucks.
But you're a long time dead...