Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[drivatruk]

I've booked to go to Bali on November 4 2020.
I have keep the trip as simple as possible with everything changeable.
I so need to go somewhere....... Today i should be in Havana......

 

[Gremlin]

Glad we are in great company.... why can't the government just allow people to leave but force them to pay for the 14 day quarantine instead? Wouldn't it be better than forcing people to stay in Australia?

If they want to take this further, they can demand a monetary deposit to be made upon leaving Australia, which will be returned if the traveller don't return in x months, that sure beats forcing people to stay here against their will.

Be careful what you wish for...

I think there's a few reasons why this is unlikely.

First, cost. I have a friend who is an Aussie working overseas in an essential role. He's asked to come back to Australia for a couple of weeks before returning overseas. As part of his condition of exemption to leave again he (well, his employer) has to pay quarantine expenses. Between the two lots of quarantine (here and there) that's a hefty five figure sum. It's not simply the cost of two weeks in a hotel. There are a lot of additional expenses that are required to keep the quarantine process happening.

Second, capacity. Hotel-based quarantine only became possible when the number of inbound passengers fell below the capacity of the hotels to hold them for two weeks. The capacity to manage this sort of arrangement is limited by hotel capacity, not airline capacity. Which would mean very few flights anyway and airline schedules dictated by hotel capacity, not their own levels of demand. That capacity also needs to be managed for other programs, such as bringing back in international students or any business travel meeting the exemption requirements (as per my mate above). Govt is far more likely to prioritise those inbound who will be bringing money into the economy than those returning from leisure travel.

Third, impact on domestic tourism. The last thing the domestic tourism industry needs is the hotels to be full of people in quarantine. The more people in quarantine, the less rooms available for domestic or TransTasman tourists who are actually going to be out in the community spending money. This would mean a longer and slower domestic tourism recovery.

 

[tgh]

If a vaccine is not developed quickly and/or the prospects mostly fail , the world will again be ruled by quarantine.
As long as there was long term demand , quarantine services could become quite a useful commercial enterprise as there are lots of pretty places that could be repurposed.
In a world awash with cash , any government would have little trouble hiring quarantine contractors to set up appealing stations in pleasant locations.

 

[glasszon]

Be careful what you wish for...

I think there's a few reasons why this is unlikely.

First, cost. I have a friend who is an Aussie working overseas in an essential role. He's asked to come back to Australia for a couple of weeks before returning overseas. As part of his condition of exemption to leave again he (well, his employer) has to pay quarantine expenses. Between the two lots of quarantine (here and there) that's a hefty five figure sum. It's not simply the cost of two weeks in a hotel. There are a lot of additional expenses that are required to keep the quarantine process happening.

Second, capacity. Hotel-based quarantine only became possible when the number of inbound passengers fell below the capacity of the hotels to hold them for two weeks. The capacity to manage this sort of arrangement is limited by hotel capacity, not airline capacity. Which would mean very few flights anyway and airline schedules dictated by hotel capacity, not their own levels of demand. That capacity also needs to be managed for other programs, such as bringing back in international students or any business travel meeting the exemption requirements (as per my mate above). Govt is far more likely to prioritise those inbound who will be bringing money into the economy than those returning from leisure travel.

Third, impact on domestic tourism. The last thing the domestic tourism industry needs is the hotels to be full of people in quarantine. The more people in quarantine, the less rooms available for domestic or TransTasman tourists who are actually going to be out in the community spending money. This would mean a longer and slower domestic tourism recovery.

The points you raised are fair, but I still feel the Australian exit travel ban to be disproportionate: Australia is far from the only country that has introduced a compulsory quarantine period, how come other countries can manage this while Australia has to force people to remain in Australia against their will?

 

[gl0betrotter]

Yes, it is hard to understand why Australia needs to enforce an outbound travel ban when New Zealand does not. New Zealand just has a Do Not Travel advisory and quarantine period which has so far been enough to stop almost all overseas travel without preventing those who really need to leave from doing so.

 

[CityRail]

I've booked to go to Bali on November 4 2020.
I have keep the trip as simple as possible with everything changeable.
I so need to go somewhere....... Today i should be in Havana......

Me too. There is an election happening on 6th of September in Hong Kong, and if we don't go back to vote, then CCP will win and Hong Kong will all lose.

I don't understand why travel ban is necessary anymore considering there is a very little amount of people in hotel quarantine at the moment, which I think the international travel ban should be watered down with the introduction of Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble.

Also things are improving by a lot in Asia, and I just wondering whether Asia travel will be feasible by the end of the year.

 

[Gremlin]

I spoke to someone from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade recently. They were telling me that they have been massively increasing the amount of consular support that has been required to be offered at the expense of pretty much everything else they do.

Think about that for a moment. At a time when international trade is facing its biggest upheaval since the Second World War, Australia is scaling back its support for international trade in order to prioritise its consular support services overseas.

Some of this is for people who are entirely the victim of circumstance and that support is completely understandable. But the ridiculous cost that comes from needing to provide these consular services to people blatantly disregarding the "Do Not Travel" warning and taking off overseas for frivolous reasons is why, for Australians, a worldwide "Do Not Travel" was simply not enough and the ban was enacted in the first place.

I personally would rather see Australian Embassy officials overseas trying to restart trade in whatever form is possible than dealing with Aussies with an overblown sense of entitlement who, acting against a "Do Not Travel" warning, continue to demand that the Australian Government and taxpayer provide a solution to problems they've created. If what's required to achieve that is a ban on exits (obviously excluding the long list of exemptions) then so be it.

 

[CityRail]

Breaking News

TIME TO FLY: Date revealed for international travel to resume

A date has been proposed for the inaugural ‘travel bubble’ flight from Australia to NZ, as a calendar for the restart of tourism is released.

7news.com.au

Australians will be allowed to travel to NZ and the Pacific from July 1, and other countries deemed “safe” from September, according to a timetable produced by the Tourism Restart Taskforce.

Hope has arrived.

 

[james4321]

Breaking News

TIME TO FLY: Date revealed for international travel to resume

A date has been proposed for the inaugural ‘travel bubble’ flight from Australia to NZ, as a calendar for the restart of tourism is released.

7news.com.au

Hope has arrived.

Don’t hold your breath. The report is labelled “aspirational “

 

[jakeseven7]

Breaking News

TIME TO FLY: Date revealed for international travel to resume

A date has been proposed for the inaugural ‘travel bubble’ flight from Australia to NZ, as a calendar for the restart of tourism is released.

7news.com.au

Hope has arrived.

Don't hold your breath, in 2 years QLD will respond

 

[CityRail]

Don’t hold your breath. The report is labelled “aspirational “

I also quote:

several key departments are now reportedly working towards these dates

If government departments failed to meet the deadline, they deserve nothing but the sack.

On the other hand, the Guardian reported that NZ and Australia Travel Bubble will be tabled in early June:

Australia-New Zealand travel bubble could be in place by September, expert group says

New Zealand PM says both countries are working ‘as quickly as we can’ on scheme which allows travel but guards against coronavirus risk

www.theguardian.com

It will hope to be operational By September

Meanwhile:

Australian prime minister Scott Morrison has pledged to “consider” establishing the safe travel zone in July as part of the federal government’s third phase of easing travel restrictions.

So I think the Australian chamber of commerce may not be wrong, and thankfully we have a Coalition Government for now that will consider to the needs of businesses. Hopefully we will be able to fly to NZ in July 1 and Asian countries by September.

 

[SeatBackForward]

SIN and HKG to allow transit passengers from June onwards.

 

[glasszon]

Breaking News

TIME TO FLY: Date revealed for international travel to resume

A date has been proposed for the inaugural ‘travel bubble’ flight from Australia to NZ, as a calendar for the restart of tourism is released.

7news.com.au

Hope has arrived.

But will it happen? We still haven't got a date on when we can travel freely within Australia, and now July is supposed to be the date when international travel to NZ will resume?....

 

[CityRail]

But will it happen? We still haven't got a date on when we can travel freely within Australia, and now July is supposed to be the date when international travel to NZ will resume?....

Well, the Prime Minister and the Premier of NSW has already indicated they may be going to NZ before they go to Queensland. It is up to the State of whether they choose to open their borders or not.

If they don't open their borders, I suppose they automatically loses out.

On the other hand, I am now attaching the Timeline which the government may work towards reopening our borders:

 

[p--and--t]

Well, the Prime Minister and the Premier of NSW has already indicated they may be going to NZ before they go to Queensland. It is up to the State of whether they choose to open their borders or not.

If they don't open their borders, I suppose they automatically loses out.

On the other hand, I am now attaching the Timeline which the government may work towards reopening our borders:

View attachment 218809

Interesting. Two differing aspirational timelines for non-Pacific region o/s travel. Also a proviso mentioned for bi-lateral health agreement requirements. I wonder if that is the difference between the two timelines or two different prognoses on when it may be possible to travel to "other safe countries".

 

[glasszon]

But how will NZ and any other country within the travel bubble ensure Australians won't use their country as a gateway to exit Australia? For example, could NZ immigration stop AU citizens if they fly to USA via New Zealand (for example)?

If not, it would make a mockery of the travel ban and they might as well get rid of it altogether.

 

[CityRail]

But how will NZ and any other country within the travel bubble ensure Australians won't use their country as a gateway to exit Australia? For example, could NZ immigration stop AU citizens if they fly to USA via New Zealand (for example)?

If not, it would make a mockery of the travel ban and they might as well get rid of it altogether.

That will rely on the framework in which they will be working and tabling early next month.

I suppose you will see something of a common safe travel area and if you have been travelling out of the area you will be quarantined at the first port of call back in the zone?

 

[Simo]

I am planning no OS trips this year until it is all official...

The crazyness is some one from Syd can go to NZ but not to OOL as the way it is looking...

 

[glasszon]

That will rely on the framework in which they will be working and tabling early next month.

I suppose you will see something of a common safe travel area and if you have been travelling out of the area you will be quarantined at the first port of call back in the zone?

Right, but my question is about the travel ban: Right now Australian citizens are prohibited from leaving Australia, let's say if we allow travel to NZ, what's stopping people from just travelling to NZ, stay a day or two, then depart for USA (for example), bypassing the exit travel ban altogether?

I am sure they would have considered it, but I am just curious what the answer might be, would NZ be willing to enforce Australian law and stop Australians from travelling anywhere except back to Australia? Especially given that NZ hasn't enforced an exit travel ban on their citizen?

 

[p--and--t]

Right, but my question is about the travel ban: Right now Australian citizens are prohibited from leaving Australia, let's say if we allow travel to NZ, what's stopping people from just travelling to NZ, stay a day or two, then depart for USA (for example), bypassing the exit travel ban altogether?

I am sure they would have considered it, but I am just curious what the answer might be, would NZ be willing to enforce Australian law and stop Australians from travelling anywhere except back to Australia? Especially given that NZ hasn't enforced an exit travel ban on their citizen?

One would expect that if a mutually agreed "travel bubble" is declared between the governments then all parties will enact procedures to ensure it is a confining bubble and constraints, repatriation, health provision are dealt with and the costs are apportioned as appropriate.

Pretty sure most of the Pacific Islands will do whatever is requested to get the tourist (and aid) dollars flowing again.

NZ would have the same concerns with any Kiwis travelling to AU that they don't go onward elsewhere and then return without confinement. I'm sure they will have processes in place and possibly not feel obliged to go out of their way to tell the general Joe Blow in advance of how they are doing in under the covers.