Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[hb13]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1390266079302148097

 

[Pushka]

Only problems with that are:

(1) Australia will not open up immediately upon reaching the point of full vaccination; and
(2) Definition of “full vaccination” as of late 2021/early 2022 is unlikely to be “two AZ or Pfizer shots”.

Not a single person of relevance within the Australian federal government expects the borders to be anything like “open” before the middle of next year.

There is also an announcement coming soon from QF re the impossibility of flights from end-October.

The goal posts keep shifting and it seems Australia is on its own in its definition of vaccination rates and acceptable risk. Seems like we have no confidence in our hospital system to cope with any positives amongst even a vaccinated population.

Any clues on what is defined as "open"? If 14 day home quarantine and frequent testing of vaccinated travellers is acceptable then that would at least be progress.

 

[hb13]

I think once the vulnerable in Australia and everyone over 50 is vaccinated, there should be absolutely no reason why fully vaccinated Aussies cannot return home and not have to quarantine. The data coming from Israel, the UK, Gibraltar shows the efficacy of the vaccines. What more do we need to see? Are we going to wait for 2-3 years before deciding whether vaccines are the solution?

I'm not a doctor or scientist, but the CDC in the US and European doctors have now said fully vaccinated people are pretty much free to do what they like. Are they just idiots and Australia doesn't trust them?

Remember - scientists in Australia cannot do studies within Australia of any vaccine because there are no COVID cases. So if they're not willing to trust data out of other nations - then this will never ever get resolved.

 

[Pushka]

Remember - scientists in Australia cannot do studies within Australia of any vaccine because there are no COVID cases. So if they're not willing to trust data out of other nations - then this will never ever get resolved.

On a Health FB group, someone posted that their GP said not to get vaccinated because Australia can't test the efficacy of the vaccine because we had no Covid in Australia And they were going to refuse. We have a snowball chance in hell with such idiot Doctors.

 

[oznflfan]

I think once the vulnerable in Australia and everyone over 50 is vaccinated, there should be absolutely no reason why fully vaccinated Aussies cannot return home and not have to quarantine. The data coming from Israel, the UK, Gibraltar shows the efficacy of the vaccines. What more do we need to see? Are we going to wait for 2-3 years before deciding whether vaccines are the solution?

I'm not a doctor or scientist, but the CDC in the US and European doctors have now said fully vaccinated people are pretty much free to do what they like. Are they just idiots and Australia doesn't trust them?

Remember - scientists in Australia cannot do studies within Australia of any vaccine because there are no COVID cases. So if they're not willing to trust data out of other nations - then this will never ever get resolved.

Not the trust in scientists.
Oversea's OK with low risk.
Australian government wants ZERO risk, ZERO cases, not even 1.
Scomo and Gladys saying right things. Good thing about politicians is they can change direction on a dime, so sure it will change, not this year though. Hoping mid 2022 (only 12 months away!).

 

[trevella]

Good thing about politicians is they can change direction on a dime, so sure it will change, not this year though. Hoping mid 2022 (only 12 months away!).

I’m trying to imagine a scenario in which any level of Australian government says “There’s a booster on the way that will cope with at least some of the more concerning variants, but sure, let’s open up before we take it.” And struggling.

Switzerland has just ordered theirs… where will Australia be in the queue?

Moderna inks supply deal with Switzerland for booster COVID-19 vaccine | Seeking Alpha

Moderna (MRNA) has signed a new agreement with Switzerland to supply 7M doses of booster COVID-19 vaccine in 2022.The deal also allows an additional option for another 7M doses for...

seekingalpha.com

 

[Lynda2475]

Well given they cant agree a plan for when we will have all had a first dose, they aren't smart enough to contemplate boosters.

Because our roll-out is so pathetically slow, those front line workers who were lucky to be fully vaccinated with Pfizer in March, will be ready for their booster before 2B have even had an opportunity to get a first dose of Pfizer.

Our Govt really needs to insist that the Pfizer doses which have yet to be delivered, are swapped out for variant tweaked ones and not the original formula. otherwise we will be even further behind.

 

[Kiwi_Flyer]

Seychelles experience will be analysed with interest. 60% have at least 1 vaccine dose but getting a wave of infections. Maybe related to 60% of the 60% being the chinese vaccine?

 

[mviy]

Seychelles experience will be analysed with interest. 60% have at least 1 vaccine dose but getting a wave of infections.

One dose doesn't provide as much protection as two and 60% isn't enough to achieve herd immunity. One of the unknowns is how contagious a vaccinated individual that gets infected is and this is going to vary from vaccine to vaccine and person to person. The primary goal of vaccination is to prevent serious illness and death, secondly to reduce transmission, and thirdly if possible prevent infection of the vaccinated individual. The third goal is the least importance of the three.

 

[Lynda2475]

Real world evidence seems to be suggesting that the Chinese vaccines are less effective than others. WHO has set a low threshold of 50% efficacy to approve a vaccine but as supplies become more plentiful people will likely want products which perform better.

 

[dajop]

Real world evidence seems to be suggesting that the Chinese vaccines are less effective than others. WHO has set a low threshold of 50% efficacy to approve a vaccine but as supplies become more plentiful people will likely want products which perform better.

Some people will have no choice in the matter, especially those with poor, corrupt, and/or incompetent governments, or are reliant strategically on China.

I was talking to a colleague in Argentina yesterday, who is expecting to have the opportunity to have her vaccine sometime in first few months of next year - and what they have a choice of there is the two Chinese vaccines and Sputnik. Big swathes of the world do not live in rich countries, so take whatever they can get.

 

[burmans]

Yeah, although countries like the US have significant production capability and as they reach as stage where local demand decreases they will start exporting (in fact already have). Willingness to pay may be an issue but I think we have already seen signs that supply will become less of an issue over time.

 

[Lynda2475]

I was surprised to read that the sino vac cost 4 time per dose what AZ does and double what J&J does. I guess that why majority of Covax to date has been AZ.

 

[Seat0B]

Some people will have no choice in the matter, especially those with poor, corrupt, and/or incompetent governments, or are reliant strategically on China.

I was talking to a colleague in Argentina yesterday, who is expecting to have the opportunity to have her vaccine sometime in first few months of next year - and what they have a choice of there is the two Chinese vaccines and Sputnik. Big swathes of the world do not live in rich countries, so take whatever they can get.

Yes the Chinese vaccines were widely on offer in the UAE in January this year. I'm glad my son waited to get the AZ in late Feb. They are doing the second shot any time after 8 weeks there.

 

[burmans]

This is the sort of article that may cause the general population to change their mind about open borders. I suspect we will see a few of these as/when other countries open up.

USA COVID-19 vaccine rollout: Soon we'll no longer feel sorry for Americans, we'll envy them

Any day now, something strange is going to happen to our perception of the US.

www.traveller.com.au

 

[Lynda2475]

Chinese official says local vaccines' effectiveness is low

Beijing has distributed hundreds of millions of doses in other countries while also trying to promote doubt about the effectiveness of Western vaccines.

www.abc.net.au

 

[Princess Fiona]

On a Health FB group, someone posted that their GP said not to get vaccinated because Australia can't test the efficacy of the vaccine because we had no Covid in Australia And they were going to refuse. We have a snowball chance in hell with such idiot Doctors.

And that GP should be reported to AHPRA

 

[OATEK]

This is the sort of article that may cause the general population to change their mind about open borders. I suspect we will see a few of these as/when other countries open up.

USA COVID-19 vaccine rollout: Soon we'll no longer feel sorry for Americans, we'll envy them

Any day now, something strange is going to happen to our perception of the US.

www.traveller.com.au

Did you mean some of the general population?

We have a lot of chicken and egg discussions going on, but the fundamental issue is that of risk. If most of the general population do not see a risk of Covid infection, then they will not vaccinate. IMHO only the small subset of people (like me) that are desperate to visit family overseas will really be feeling the need to get the jab.

 

[dajop]

And on the international wires (mainly relating to visitor arrivals):

Australia May Not Open Border Until Late 2022, Minister Says

Australia’s trade minister said the country’s international borders may not completely open until the second half of 2022, a longer-than-anticipated closure that would be a blow to the airline and tourism industries.

www.bloomberg.com

COVID-19: Australia borders could be shut until late 2022, says minister

Australia is likely to remain shut to visitors until late 2022, the country's trade and tourism minister said on Friday (May 7), as another global ...

www.channelnewsasia.com

 

[CaptJCool]

Dug up some stats on approved exemptions which were obtained by an immigration agent

58,000 outbound approvals for Australian PR & citizens
14,000 inbound approvals for non-citizens

Travel Ban Exemption Requests for Outward Travel – Australian Information

www.abcdiamond.com.au

so this adds to the issue in that of the 9000 in India McGowan alluded to Australians who received an approval....

for any considered debate the Drum earlier this week canvassed views. It was prickly to say the least.
it comes to the heart of “we couldn’t go to Victoria for a funeral, so why can people travel OS?”

McGowan has been refreshingly open eg of those stuck in India, 4,500 to 5,000 were given travel exemptions to go in recent times). After September 2020, people signed agreement to be away at least 3 months and to financially support themselves while there and during 14 day hotel quarantine and that they understood returning would have its logistic difficulties including cost blowouts. Many onshore AUssies deferred weddings and missed funerals because of internal border closures so should they feel supportive of others exempted to travel internationally during a worldwide pandemic?