Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[MEL_Traveller]

AFF is a real echo chamber, and gives a perhaps warped, and arguably "elite" view of the world. In the context of opening up the country, 50% or more probably don't give a damn about "elites" taking their overseas holidays . Even to Bali or coughet. But may be persuaded by carefully constructed stories around not seeing loved ones for 18months though.

And FWIW, whilst it's cheaper to fly to Bali than it ever was, the people I'm talking about do not fly there, and would not fly to Perth, NT or FNQ for holidays either. They take their holidays at home even, going for a night away, or drives etc. This is what they can (or choose to) afford. Take a family of 6 to Bali, even with Jetstar type fairs is still not that cheap for some.

We might be talking at cross purposes here? I'm not sure Bali is 'elite'... in 2019 1.23 million Aussies visited Bali. Taking a flight to Bali will see plenty of ordinary mums and dads with their families off for a holiday

 

[jakeseven7]

Accepted by whom? Government maybe, but I don't know if that support is shared by the general public. The government keeping telling us that all of us getting vaccinated will help allow business people to travel seems to provide little incentive to the rest of us.

Clearly almost everyone, apart from a few posters on AFF...

It’s not making the news because people don’t care right now. Maybe that will change as more people get vaccinated who knows, but it’s not hard to travel right now for business if you have some wits and $.

 

[jakeseven7]

We might be talking at cross purposes here? I'm not sure Bali is 'elite'... in 2019 1.23 million Aussies visited Bali. Taking a flight to Bali will see plenty of ordinary mums and dads with their families off for a holiday

Not really.... I honestly just think you just have a bit of a warped view of the true reality that suits your own purposes.

Not a criticism because most people do. Only some can/want to see the real bigger picture, because it often doesn’t suit their comfortable narrative. You have to think broader about the whole picture here and that clearly tells you what is really going on.

 

[Kimpos]

At least NZ has a plan and a recognition of risk

Covid 19 coronavirus: Bloomfield mulls a more open border with level 2.5 as new normal

Bloomfield: Vaccinating as many as possible in NZ is the key to opening up the border.

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[dajop]

We might be talking at cross purposes here? I'm not sure Bali is 'elite'... in 2019 1.23 million Aussies visited Bali. Taking a flight to Bali will see plenty of ordinary mums and dads with their families off for a holiday

It all depends on your perspective ... some would indeed say it is elite. It's overseas travel it's elite. Simple. (just looking at it from a different perspective to what I normally would. I'm thinking of the perspective of one of my dearly loved aunts, obviously not from my own frame of reference, pot kettle black and all that).

Also not sure I agree that 1.23m Aussies visited Bali, as many do make multiple trips a year (and some even FIFO). So let's round down to an even 1m. That's still only 4% of the population. Do the other 96% care about others being able to visit Bali or would they care more about others being able to see their parents, kids, grandkids, grandparents, brothers and sisters, aunts and uncles more?

 

[Kimpos]

And this just happened in the US

People vaccinated against Covid-19 can go without masks indoors and outdoors, CDC says

Updated guidance from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says people fully vaccinated against Covid-19 do not need to wear masks or practice social distancing indoors or outdoors, except in certain circumstances.

www.cnn.com

"If you are fully vaccinated, you can start doing the things that you had stopped doing because of the pandemic," Dr. Rochelle Walensky said during a White House Covid-19 briefing. "We have all longed for this moment when we can get back to some sense of normalcy."
Calling it an "exciting and powerful moment," Walensky said the science supports the updated CDC guidance that "anyone who is fully vaccinated can participate in indoor and outdoor activities -- large or small -- without wearing a mask or physical distancing."
She cited three studies -- one from Israel and one from the United States -- that show vaccines work.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Do the other 96% care about others being able to visit Bali or would they care more about others being able to see their parents, kids, grandkids, grandparents, brothers and sisters, aunts and uncles more?

Agree - which brings me back to my original point that trying to incentivise us by saying business travellers will be at the front of the queue is prolly the least appealing!

 

[Pom-DownUnder]

No covid in the country = no stick
No benefit like travel when vaccinated = no carrot

= watching the rest of the world through the window for 6 months

 

[Tiki]

The domestic travel market will never compensate for international visitors. The dynamics are competely different. You have the same old domestic tourists that were always there doing the same thing (when state borders are open). Family trips to GC, camping, caravan parks, etc.

Australians who want to travel overseas are not going to blow their budgets on domestic travel. Maybe a quick trip to get away. But I think most are biding their time and accumulating savings to spend overseas. We spent less than $1000 on domestic travel since March 2020 and that got us 2 caravan park cabin weekend road trips and 5 days in Norfolk Island using QF award and Amex points &$200 credit for the hotel. We spent fairly big on home renovations but that increases the value of our home so it's a different kind of expense.

I budget roughly $3000-5000 for an overseas trip and try to squeeze in as much as I can whether I get tired or not because "When will we be here again?" Domestic destinations are always going to be here and I feel no need to rush. It's stressful to travel when ONE case gets bubbles burst, borders slammed shut, people stranded and forced to quarantine. Even if you are a "close contact" like you had lunch in the wrong restaurant at the wrong time, you can get trapped by quaratine adn all plans cancelled. So I am squirrelling away my travel budget and when we finally have freedom we will be off the minute we can do so without threat of hotel quarantine or being stranded is secured.

Overseas tourists here are in "bucket list" mode. It is expensive and takes a long time to fly here. Once they are here they cram ever possible tourist attraction in so they don't miss out because "when will we ever be here again?" And while backpackers may save on accommodation, they spend up big on pubs, clubs, scuba diving, rafting and other adventures which are not cheap.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

so can Australians go to Cook Islands next week or not ? Kiwis can.

Been to Aitutaki once briefly & want to go back, but for longer next time, as bit of a hike to get there via AKL.

The last I read on this - about a week ago - was that 'no', the travel bubble between NZ and the Cook Islands doesn't apply to Aussies.

Aussies cannot enter the Cooks Islands quarantine free - so would need to spend 14 days in quarantine on arrival, and then again when they got back to NZ. Assuming they would even be allowed back to NZ as only NZ citizens/PR can apply for a place in HQ there.

 

[bcworld]

Australians who want to travel overseas are not going to blow their budgets on domestic travel.

I dunno. I have certainly found myself prepared to more than I ever would've before for domestic flights and hotels. Like the $700+ return flights I booked MEL<>OOL for Easter. As it happened Rex came along and I cancelled them into Travelbank and paid $150 instead!

Similarly, I find myself willing to pay around $400p/n for 'experience' hotels / upgraded rooms...just trying to make those domestic trips a bit more special.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

so the big question is why not ? & what about a kiwi living in Australia ? Getting really sick of this Hitler mentality by govts here. Do as we say, without ANY justification at all, or else, while the rest of the world opens up. The really crazy part is we accept it, just because some medico says so. Can gat plenty of medicos to disagree.

I think it's something which was going to be considered. But it's up to the CI government, and there is a huge economic and cultural relationship with NZ. Not sure how their vaccine roll out is going.

 

[ayushamity]

MSN

And yet we are trapped till mid 2022

 

[mviy]

MSN

And yet we are trapped till mid 2022

The budget made assumptions, which hopefully are conservative. If vaccination really completes by Christmas, I think plans to recommence travel will be revised to start easing restrictions sooner.

 

[dajop]

The last I read on this - about a week ago - was that 'no', the travel bubble between NZ and the Cook Islands doesn't apply to Aussies.

Aussies cannot enter the Cooks Islands quarantine free - so would need to spend 14 days in quarantine on arrival, and then again when they got back to NZ. Assuming they would even be allowed back to NZ as only NZ citizens/PR can apply for a place in HQ there.

These things (bubbles) are not driven by nationality, but rather travel history. Anyone (with appropriate visas etc) who has spent the previous 2 weeks in NZ could travel to Cook Islands as part of the bubble. And returning anyone who had been in the Cook Islands/NZ for previous 2 weeks could return to NZ.

So for Australian residents they would need to spend 4 weeks in NZ (two either side) to visit the Cook Islands. But wouldn’t need to be in quarantine!

I understand the reluctance of Cook Islands, but Australia really should allow one way bubble though so people could return back without having to do two weeks in NZ, as Cook Islands have never had any Covid cases.

 

[dajop]

. Do as we say, without ANY justification at all, or else,

Polls. Majority view. That’s the justification. They have strong support. Most people don’t care.

 

[jakeseven7]

Polls. Majority view. That’s the justification. They have strong support. Most people don’t care.

We should both just cut and paste this response over and over....

 

[Princess Fiona]

don't know about strong support. Only those who worry about everything are worried & they are hiding under the bed for next 12 months or more.

Except it isn’t those who are hiding under the bed who support it.
It’s the ordinary joe who has been living his/her life as normal except every time there’s a COVID case when <insert state premier/ CHO here> mucks up their holiday plans / spit roast.
There’s absolutely no appetite for opening up until they can be assured that imported Covid won’t cause further restrictions.

 

[Lynda2475]

I don't trust polls for meaningful insight, they canvass a very small number of people via landlines (and fewer and fewer people even have a landline anymore unless they are a business or older). The only time you get a truly representative response is f there is a referendum or election (polls leading up to these prove very inaccurate often too).

Also too many assumptions here about absolutes - many people prior to covid-19 travelled regularly both domestically and internationally. We differ greatly on what we do on those trip (some visit family, some sight see, some mix with locals others lock themselves away in luxury resorts). I've always done at least one domestic leisure trip (in addition to work travel) and at least one international leisure trip each year. The pandemic has meant I've done a few extra short domestic flights, but it certainly hasn't had me spending the sort of money I would spent on international trip - because there is uncertainty re state border closures, too many tourist business using pandemic as a reason to offer lesser/reduced services and not enough businesses tailoring for locals instead trying to serve up content designed for international tourists who are more tolerant of kitsch stereotypes i.e. a photo with a koala!

Even if most are happy to stay put in Australia (or their own state) that doesn't absolve our government from the need to implement policies and plans to allow international travel. Governments have a plethora of other policies that exist for really narrow segments of the population. We need forward thinking leaders, we need some certainty, it might be difficult to specify a date for some criteria but should be much easier to specify the criteria i.e. x% of population fully vaccinate, each state/territory capable of accepting x% of population as international arrivals into quarantine each week, requirement for departing Australians to pre-pay for their return HQ at departure (refund if they dont end up needing to HQ) etc.

 

[oznflfan]

The budget made assumptions, which hopefully are conservative. If vaccination really completes by Christmas, I think plans to recommence travel will be revised to start easing restrictions sooner.

Unfortunately I think the mid 2022 is still aspirational. I think absolute best case for 1/7/2022 would be:
*Allow us to go oversea's to selected countries (maybe use similar to green/amber/red UK traffic light system) WITH home quarantine.

TBH I have no family oversea's, and as long as full European borders open by June 2023, worst case with home based quarantine, I can deal with that. 5-6 weeks in Europe planned for late June to early August 2023.