Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[burmans]

Agreed. I think people respond so much better when there is a clear framework and goal to work towards. Right now we are "planning to have a plan and we are not exactly sure what the trigger points of the plan should be, let us pontificate some more and naval gaze and we will come back to you with a number".

Well you know what that say, ‘failing to plan is planning to fail’!

 

[roogirl]

And this speculation which seems like a logical reaction from airlines. Australia news LIVE: NSW COVID-19 cases and exposure sites grow; Morrison reveals four-phase reopening scheme

Foreign airlines spooked by travel crackdown​

By Supratim Adhikari​

There are warnings that Australia’s decision to half the already limited number of people allowed into the country on commercial flights will prompt foreign airlines to stop flying here altogether.
The Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA) - which represents major international carriers that fly here - said that would make it even more difficult for Australians stuck overseas to get home.

The reduction of international arrivals has airlines spooked.
“Despite all the effort they’ve put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time,” BARA executive director Barry Abrams said.
“There’ll be a reduction in the level of connectivity available to Australians overseas to get home.”
Daily arrival limits mean that the major airlines still flying to Australia - such as Singapore Airlines, Emirates and Etihad - are already limited to around 35 passengers.

I assume the government is quietly giving these airlines freight subsidies - can’t possibly make sense for them to be flying 35pax a flight otherwise.

in actual fact the miracle is that they didn’t ban foreign airlines and give Qantas the entire allocation. Would fit with the current No Foreigners Here mentality.

 

[JB expat]

Well let’s now be too harsh, they have only had a year to come up with this ‘plan’. That’s pretty fast for this government when you consider the glacial progress on a number of other issues.

I've lost my sense of humor - this is a shambles with direct negative impact on me and many others.

For me - and many others - this is not about holiday travel - this is about visiting family in the other country of which I am a citizen.

It is also about my career if I am the only member of my global team that is not able to attend meetings later this year.

I did the right thing. As a 1b-er, I got my first vaccine as soon as I was eligible (the AZ). By the time my 2nd was due, all the AZ versus Pfizer controversy broke - and I was in the key age group that was ineligible for Pfizer, but now eligible. I went ahead and got my second AZ as scheduled. Now I want something in return - that is, to visit my family in the USA before 2021 ends. I will take a covid test before my return flight, I will quarantine at home, I will post a "good behavior bond" if asked, I will take as many covid tests as they want once I am home.

I'd lose my job if I handled major projects with direct impact on the company's strategy in this manner. There needs to be concrete planning, contingencies spelled out, unknowns spelled out, strategy to ensure success, deadlines set.

Post automatically merged: Jul 2, 2021

I assume the government is quietly giving these airlines freight subsidies - can’t possibly make sense for them to be flying 35pax a flight otherwise.

in actual fact the miracle is that they didn’t ban foreign airlines and give Qantas the entire allocation. Would fit with the current No Foreigners Here mentality.

Maybe we can get them to ship over timber now that the USA timber price is falling (I know this is random - but it is something else I am personally dealing with at the moment).

 

[roogirl]

I've lost my sense of humor - this is a shambles with direct negative impact on me and many others.

For me - and many others - this is not about holiday travel - this is about visiting family in the other country of which I am a citizen.

It is also about my career if I am the only member of my global team that is not able to attend meetings later this year.

I did the right thing. As a 1b-er, I got my first vaccine as soon as I was eligible (the AZ). By the time my 2nd was due, all the AZ versus Pfizer controversy broke - and I was in the key age group that was ineligible for Pfizer, but now eligible. I went ahead and got my second AZ as scheduled. Now I want something in return - that is, to visit my family in the USA before 2021 ends. I will take a covid test before my return flight, I will quarantine at home, I will post a "good behavior bond" if asked, I will take as many covid tests as they want once I am home.

I'd lose my job if I handled major projects with direct impact on the company's strategy in this manner. There needs to be concrete planning, contingencies spelled out, unknowns spelled out, strategy to ensure success, deadlines set.

Post automatically merged: Jul 2, 2021

Maybe we can get them to ship over timber now that the USA timber price is falling (I know this is random - but it is something else I am personally dealing with at the moment).

Am so sorry. It’s so hard. I get too furious if I think about how long it’s going to be - and how cavalier they are about the lack of timetable. I seem to recall the PM complaining about not being able to see his family for one night (was it his birthday?) - it’s just laughable how myopic he is as he condemns millions of people to long term separations.

 

[Pushka]

Am so sorry. It’s so hard. I get too furious if I think about how long it’s going to be - and how cavalier they are about the lack of timetable. I seem to recall the PM complaining about not being able to see his family for one night (was it his birthday?) - it’s just laughable how myopic he is as he condemns millions of people to long term separations.

I recall an Insta post of a Fed Politician recently where he had been apart from his wife and children for a few days and he actually expected sympathy?

 

[Seat0B]

I've lost my sense of humor - this is a shambles with direct negative impact on me and many others.

For me - and many others - this is not about holiday travel - this is about visiting family in the other country of which I am a citizen.

It is also about my career if I am the only member of my global team that is not able to attend meetings later this year.

I did the right thing. As a 1b-er, I got my first vaccine as soon as I was eligible (the AZ). By the time my 2nd was due, all the AZ versus Pfizer controversy broke - and I was in the key age group that was ineligible for Pfizer, but now eligible. I went ahead and got my second AZ as scheduled. Now I want something in return - that is, to visit my family in the USA before 2021 ends. I will take a covid test before my return flight, I will quarantine at home, I will post a "good behavior bond" if asked, I will take as many covid tests as they want once I am home.

I'd lose my job if I handled major projects with direct impact on the company's strategy in this manner. There needs to be concrete planning, contingencies spelled out, unknowns spelled out, strategy to ensure success, deadlines set.

I 100% agree with you @JB expat. The impact on me today has been totally negative. I've really, really taken it hard that I almost certainly won't be seeing my son now after all the trials and tribulations that he has gone through to get it arranged so that he could come home and WFH in hotel quarantine (lawyer based in Dubai - professional indemnity insurance issues). This is certainly not holiday travel, but is about visiting family in the only country where this is even theoretically possible for us as we here are all Australian citizens only, although he is both Australian and US citizen (accident of birth on a military posting to the US). For the first time in my life, I feel like there is no value whatsoever in my Australian citizenship.

And like you, I've been a very good girl. I've abided by their stupid border restrictions and lockdowns, worn masks and sanitised until I got dermatitis. I've spent money in small businesses and holidayed at home and tried to make the best of it. I've volunteered for the community as a fire fighter, and did not take my 1b option as a fire fighter so that a more deserving person could get the vaccination that I did not take up I've seen my business which involves specialist face to face consulting and training for government literally decimated (as in i've lost almost 90% of my income), and I'm now negotiating contracts with special clauses about who bears the costs of sudden lock downs causing cancellations, high flight costs, or worse still the need to HQ in a strange town. My international speaker career which was coming along nicely in 2019 is now reduced to "zoom conference" - no thanks. And I've also sucked up all my personal misgivings and had my first AZ shot within a few weeks of becoming eligible in 2a. I will get my second shot when the time comes for it - it's booked in.

And like you, I now also want something in return. I want my fully vaccinated almost 30 year old son to be able to come home to visit his family with some level of certainty that his exhorbitantly priced flight will actually run. He needs to meet the newborn member of the family before she walks and talks (now looking very unlikely), and to probably farewell another of his grandparents as my 87 year old mother fights off serious melanoma. I want him to see her before she is on her death bed, given that he has not seen her since his last visit home to Australia in August 2019 - although I saw him in Japan in January 2020. FFS, what is his Australian citizenship worth??

Or else I want the government to let me go to Dubai to see him - but this is not as suitable for all the reasons I've outlined. Like you I will quarantine at home (by then I'll be fully vaxxed), pay a bond, use a tracing app, get tested, whatever. But I am forking over this total BS lack of planning, lack of risk management, lack of leadership, lack of compassion. Just the total lack. I feel so powerless. And hopeless.

And so help me god, I will go totally postal if they delay border opening for 1 single day because of someone's personal choice not to vaccinate - I did not want to vaccinate either, but I have done it. I'm not totally sure yet what going postal looks like for me, but I will clearly have plenty of time to work that out.

 

[roogirl]

I recall an Insta post of a Fed Politician recently where he had been apart from his wife and children for a few days and he actually expected sympathy?

Same as the QLD Premier screeching for arrival cap cuts while packing her bags for Tokyo because “it’s very important”. Or the Australian Prime Minister and his pub lunches and genealogy and G7 group hugs in Cornwall while telling everyone the U.K. is a diseased plague pit.

And for that matter, in the U.K. Matt Hancock’s office groping while the rest of us have to WFH and can’t hug our grannies (for those who have grannies outside Australia - for the rest of us, refer to para 1 above).

Honestly, if these pollies and scientists actually had to feel the consequences of these rules they’re so keen on imposing on others we wouldn’t be here right now.

 

[I love to travel]

To directly answer the thread title. Based on info provided today, noting we have an ageing population which directly impacts if there is a % we need to reach, the answer is 2025.

 

[dajop]

To put the flight caps into context ....

The number of arrivals a week is equivalent to one Qantas A380 flight arriving into Australia 6 days a week and an addition 717 flight on the seventh day of the week and that's it.

So like eliminating all pre-COVID flights into Australia, except QF2 (LHR-SIN-SYD) , and having QF2 operate at 89% load factor.

 

[mviy]

To directly answer the thread title. Based on info provided today, noting we have an ageing population which directly impacts if there is a % we need to reach, the answer is 2025.

2025 would mean a relative of mine in Australia would need to live to 100 to see another relative that is overseas. Even considering good health for that individual's age the chances of surviving to 100 are low. The relative overseas is fully vaccinated and will not come home for a visit whilst hotel quarantine is required.

 

[JB expat]

2025 would mean a relative of mine in Australia would need to live to 100 to see another relative that is overseas. Even considering good health for that individual's age the chances of surviving to 100 are low. The relative overseas is fully vaccinated and will not come home for a visit whilst hotel quarantine is required.

I want to believe that this "plan" will be recalled sooner rather than later. I felt better yesterday when there was no plan, and I have been asking for a plan for months.

 

[Bodie]

We will get dates when federal election is in motion. I expect now that will in march next year to allow vaccine rollout to be fixed and hopefully fade in the memory of electors . They are hoping more vaccine will arrive to do 60+%. I cant see them gambling enough vaccine to arrive to prior to calling october election.

 

[oznflfan]

I want to believe that this "plan" will be recalled sooner rather than later. I felt better yesterday when there was no plan, and I have been asking for a plan for months.

I was always hoping for 1st July 2022 as ability to travel oversea's. This 'plan' will be binned at some stage, but I am not thinking this is any better or worse than my original 1/7/22 date. Still hoping, and will book Europe in September for trip next year, pending QFF or fully changeable flights.

 

[hb13]

And this speculation which seems like a logical reaction from airlines. Australia news LIVE: NSW COVID-19 cases and exposure sites grow; Morrison reveals four-phase reopening scheme

Foreign airlines spooked by travel crackdown​

By Supratim Adhikari​

There are warnings that Australia’s decision to half the already limited number of people allowed into the country on commercial flights will prompt foreign airlines to stop flying here altogether.
The Board of Airline Representatives of Australia (BARA) - which represents major international carriers that fly here - said that would make it even more difficult for Australians stuck overseas to get home.

The reduction of international arrivals has airlines spooked.
“Despite all the effort they’ve put in, it gets to a point where the only rational response is to suspend operations to Australia, perhaps for a very long period of time,” BARA executive director Barry Abrams said.
“There’ll be a reduction in the level of connectivity available to Australians overseas to get home.”
Daily arrival limits mean that the major airlines still flying to Australia - such as Singapore Airlines, Emirates and Etihad - are already limited to around 35 passengers.

I hope and pray every foreign airline decides to stop flights altogether to Australia. This is absolutely ridiculous and Australia is the one that decided to be a hermit nation.

In fact, the way the government has handled things this year, everything is worse for virtually everyone - except for the elite who can continue to do what they want.

 

[hb13]

I'm frankly furious at this "plan". It is nothing more than continuing to kick the can down the road.

There are no timelines - so the government can effectively do what it wants, when it wants and can say "but this is our plan". Furthermore, there are no numbers or indicators that will move the plan from one stage to another. We don't even know the percentage of the population that needs to be vaccinated for this to work. It is a whole bunch of "this may happen", without even saying when.

At the end of the day, all we have is one action - reduce caps for 6 months! That is literally the only action that has come out of this, absolutely nothing else. They've put together some "actions" that "may happen" at some arbitrary point in the future.

Frankly pathetic and another hit to the thousands of us wanting to come see family in Australia. For the thousands of Australians stranded, this is not a hit, this is devastating and will have long-lasting mental health aspects.

I'm disgusted. Simple as that. Australia, once home to me, is nothing more than a land that doesn't tolerate foreigners, is on its way to true isolation from the world and believes its own citizens overseas don't count for anything. What's worse is that the vast majority of Australians in Australia support this.

 

[dajop]

I want to believe that this "plan" will be recalled sooner rather than later. I felt better yesterday when there was no plan, and I have been asking for a plan for months.

We knew the cuts in caps were coming what is so disappointing about this plan is those cuts are basically permanent. Would have been nice to say have something like “we’re going to take stock and reduce the cap temporarily by 50% for the next 6 weeks.” And at the same time announcing a task force that has been asked to review the situation regarding vaccinated travellers and report back by the 31st July or 15th August or whatever. And use this to dela with vaccinated and unvaccinated travellers separately. There are surely plenty of epidemiologists lurking around with enough time on their hands to do multiple interviews with various media outlets every day they could be tasked with this instead.

No - no targets , no dates, just vague maybe statements.

 

[hb13]

We knew the cuts in caps were coming what is so disappointing about this plan is those cuts are basically permanent. Would have been nice to say have something like “we’re going to take stock and reduce the cap temporarily by 50% for the next 6 weeks.” And at the same time announcing a task force that has been asked to review the situation regarding vaccinated travellers and report back by the 31st July or 15th August or whatever. And use this to dela with vaccinated and unvaccinated travellers separately. There are surely plenty of epidemiologists lurking around with enough time on their hands to do multiple interviews with various media outlets every day they could be tasked with this instead.

No - no targets , no dates, just vague maybe statements.

Exactly - this is not a plan. A plan would say, once we have offered vaccines to X people, we will do this. Or, once we have offered two doses to all adults, we will open this and this up. I don't even know how some are saying this amounts to a plan.

It is really a disgrace.

 

[hb13]

It seems like this is now being seriously considered by airlines. The only way for government and the wider Australian public to learn these new plans are not the way to go is by action.

Some foreign airlines could suspend Australian flights

There are concerns that some overseas airlines will suspend Australian flights owing to the 50% cut in passenger arrivals.

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[MooTime]

I have never ever in my life heard more whinging & it's all about me stories.

Ppl talk here like they are themselves all that's important in this country. Themselves.

It's a cry me a river every 2nd post.

I don't agree with everything the gov is doing, by a long shot, but gee Wizz, flame throwing going on non stop.

Grass is greener scenario here, big time.

Guess it's a forum to blow some steam off, but wow, amazing thought that lot of ppl out there are happy to keep international borders closed for now. Even those with family OS, some can deal with not seeing them for few years (me included) for the apparant greater good, 'for now'.

 

[JB expat]

I have never ever in my life heard more whinging & it's all about me stories.

Ppl talk here like they are themselves all that's important in this country. Themselves.

It's a cry me a river every 2nd post.

I don't agree with everything the gov is doing, by a long shot, but gee Wizz, flame throwing going on non stop.

Grass is greener scenario here, big time.

Guess it's a forum to blow some steam off, but wow, amazing thought that lot of ppl out there are happy to keep international borders closed for now. Even those with family OS, some can deal with not seeing them for few years (me included) for the apparant greater good, 'for now'.

Knowingly shot down now if not moderated.

If "the greater good" is defined as keeping those who refuse to vaccinate safe, then I guess you are right. That's not my definition.

No one is asking for any significant changes before there is the OPPORTUNITY for all eligible to be fully vaccinated. Also, it is reasonable to expect your government to take all appropriate actions to secure vaccine supply (I do feel like this aspect is finally happen). But I disagree with your overall view - my USA parents may not be here in 2 years - or if they are, they may not recognize me. They are elderly, months matter. If you are young enough for the odds to favor that you do not have to think about this, well lucky you - but then think about who is only thinking about their own perspective. Also, my children are the "ideal grandparent age" - they adore their Aussie grandparents and cannot get enough of them - it is not "ridiculous" for me to want my USA parents to have some of this experience. You cannot get these years back. I do believe that many of the actions of last year were for the greater good - I supported most of them and forgave the ones that I disagreed with because the depth of experience of dealing with something like COVID was not there. That's no longer the case. There have been months & months to plan. The overall population has been patient - it is not unreasonable to expect your government to have spent time PLANNING - as in a real Plan.

Yes, a lot of people are happy with hard borders but that is "not normal" - it is extraordinary and should be viewed as something that should only be used for as long as absolutely necessary. I refuse to accept that "absolutely necessary" equates to "because people want it that way" or because "I am afraid of these vaccines".