Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[nickykim]

Just to get back on topic, I agree that international borders needed to open as soon as safely possible. I can’t see a road to there other than lockdowns until the (not yet) agreed vaccination levels are attained. I definitely have a vested interest in free international travel as soon as possible as there are some people I’d like to say farewell to in person.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

No surprise here, as you are a staunch defender of the government and will back them no matter what they do.

The people who seem to "understand this" seem to be those not heavily impacted by this financially and with no want or need to travel.

While you are happy with lockdowns and border closures forever, and will back the government to the hilt, many thousands are genuinely struggling emotionally, physically and financially.

I'm not a staunch defender of the government. I support policies aimed at protecting my family's health. The two just happen to align for me in Victoria. Those struggling emotionally, physically and financially would be suffering much more if their loved ones were in hospital or dying, or their shops were empty because no one wanted to go out due to covid (which is already happening in Victoria - people just don't want to go back to the CBD).

 

[bcworld]

I would do 21 days home quarantine if that was what was needed to convince the government to let us visit Australian family overseas.

There has to be a sensible middle ground between what we are doing now and fully opening up that can be done now.

I am in favour of home quarantine, but I do think it's logistically difficult. I know people that have done it overseas in farcical circumstances. They're at home with an electronic bracelet, but so is their partner who didn't travel and comes and goes every day! Interestingly in that place (Hong Kong) I think it's no longer an option.

My parents are in the UK...so I get it. I also think there should be no outbound travel ban...its ludicrous and unnecessary...NZ doesn't have one and isn't riddled with covid.

 

[mviy]

My loved ones in the vulnerable age groups in Vic have had plenty of time to get fully vaccinated.

Shops I used to go to have already been closing because of the ridiculous amount of lockdowns in Vic.

We have to learn to accept some risk and be allowed to take personal responsibility for our own health.

Home quarantine poses minimal risk to the community.

 

[bcworld]

We have to learn to accept some risk and be allowed to take personal responsibility for our own health.

So this is the bit where you put some numbers on it. You want to end restrictions now rather than in a few months once vaccination rates allow. So your thoughts on the acceptable level of hospitalisations, long covid and deaths?

 

[mviy]

It's not a black and white all or nothing thing (though I do tend to find it easier to think black and white about a lot of issues). But continuing to lockdown the whole of Vic every time there's a few cases is completely disproportionate to the problem. They should be locking down the affected LGAs and perhaps one or two surrounding it, not the entire state.

Home quarantine poses minimal risk to the community. If I am at home and somehow have contracted the virus I'm not going to infect the people at the local shops because I'm not close enough to their location to do so. People who have the virus caught locally are trusted to quarantine at home, but people who have flown in from overseas have tested negative and are fully vaccinated are placed in hotel quarantine for 2 weeks where they may actually catch the virus.

I am advocating for taking a balanced approach. I am not advocating for an immediate return to pre-COVID travel where you can jump off the plane and head straight to a packed crowd of 100,000 at the Grand Final at the MCG.

Maybe you work in public service, or the subsection of health that has no financial impact from lockdowns, but outside that bubble many of us are sick of the restrictions on their freedoms and the nanny state treating us like kids who don't know how to look after ourselves and take personal responsibility.

If they aren't going to do home quarantine then they should build Howard Springs like facilities as a matter of urgency in a few months, not several months as currently planned, and suddenly we could bring in several times the number we do now each week by sending the high risk to purpose built quarantine and using hotels for travellers from lower risk countries.

 

[bcworld]

Again, the only proposal you make is relating to home quarantine...which is fair enough in this thread. As we know, the Hume cluster last time was result of a breach of home quarantine so as I say...there are issues.

But you still won't describe the happy medium between zero and let it rip...I will give up now.

Re lockdown, forget about Vic...it is national policy now. The Armidale LGA in NSW is now locked down over 2 cases.

 

[N860CR]

So your thoughts on the acceptable level of hospitalisations, long covid and deaths?

Well the health minister proudly announced a few weeks ago that we’d generally have “50,000 cases of the flu, and hundreds of deaths” by this point in the year. I’d say that’s a good starting point.

Now in this current NSW outbreak, we’ve had 2 avoidable deaths in 6 weeks. Yes, obviously, the lockdown measures have kept this low. But let’s say reducing some measures leading to cases increasing 10 fold. We’ve then hit the 50,000 case level of the Flu, and only suffered approx 20 deaths. I’d say that’s acceptable risk, and it’s a conversation we need to start having.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Well the health minister proudly announced a few weeks ago that we’d generally have “50,000 cases of the flu, and hundreds of deaths” by this point in the year. I’d say that’s a good starting point.

Now in this current NSW outbreak, we’ve had 2 avoidable deaths in 6 weeks. Yes, obviously, the lockdown measures have kept this low. But let’s say reducing some measures leading to cases increasing 10 fold. We’ve then hit the 50,000 case level of the Flu, and only suffered approx 20 deaths. I’d say that’s acceptable risk, and it’s a conversation we need to start having.

It's a conversation the nation will have... but the timing is the issue. Perhaps December, once the vaccine has been rolled out.

 

[oznflfan]

It's a conversation the nation will have... but the timing is the issue. Perhaps December, once the vaccine has been rolled out.

There will be no change for 9 months, just more of the same. A special event happens in May next year and everything will just be placating us until post election. June next year we may see border changes and allowing us out.

 

[drron]

Again, the only proposal you make is relating to home quarantine...which is fair enough in this thread. As we know, the Hume cluster last time was result of a breach of home quarantine so as I say...there are issues.

But you still won't describe the happy medium between zero and let it rip...I will give up now.

Re lockdown, forget about Vic...it is national policy now. The Armidale LGA in NSW is now locked down over 2 cases.

So how about 310000 cases per year and 900 deaths?

 

[hb13]

I'm not a staunch defender of the government. I support policies aimed at protecting my family's health. The two just happen to align for me in Victoria. Those struggling emotionally, physically and financially would be suffering much more if their loved ones were in hospital or dying, or their shops were empty because no one wanted to go out due to covid (which is already happening in Victoria - people just don't want to go back to the CBD).

This actually shows that you genuinely have no clue and will blindly back the government at any opportunity.

Firstly, policies that create significant economic damage for a very, very long time will damage the large majority of people's emotional, mental and physical health - of course the rich and elite don't fall in this category. I don't know you or your family's situation, however, the majority of the population are suffering heavily now and will suffer more for quite a long time.

Secondly, the government, media and people like you have fed the fear that people have of even going out of their house. This will have severe mental effects on people for a very long time, so pat yourself on the back for that.

Finally, this 'either or' argument you present is false and frankly proves you are just trying to help feed the fear that I mentioned in my second point. The idea that if you don't go to a strong, harsh lockdown of everyone in a state (when you can do shorter, targeted lockdowns with targeted financial support) will mean many more deaths isn't proven at all.

 

[mviy]

Re lockdown, forget about Vic...it is national policy now. The Armidale LGA in NSW is now locked down over 2 cases.

If you read my post I criticised locking down an entire state over 1 or 2 cases in the state. The Armidale LGA is not the whole state of NSW. You cited an example that supports my point. We need proportionate responses not blunt response that unfairly put people in lockdown who shouldn't be.

Secondly, the government, media and people like you have fed the fear that people have of even going out of their house. This will have severe mental effects on people for a very long time, so pat yourself on the back for that.

For a time early in the pandemic I hardly left the house, but then I was uncertain as to how bad it was. I came to realise that whilst COVID-19 is worse than the flu it's not the Black Death. The Black Death is estimated to have killed at least about 1/3 of the European population at the time (some estimate it was much more than that).

We need to learn to live with the virus and until we do the international borders won't reopen to the extent that we'd like.

Let's hope the home quarantine trial goes well and that gets rolled out more broadly soon afterwards.

 

[N860CR]

It's a conversation the nation will have... but the timing is the issue. Perhaps December, once the vaccine has been rolled out.

It’s a conversation that should have started months ago. This is what we have government for, to plan. The entire pandemic has been reactionary so far and that’s a massive failure.

We’ve now had two slightly significant outbreaks in Australia. The difference between Melbourne and Sydney? In the Sydney case, we’re not seeing mass casualties.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

It’s a conversation that should have started months ago. This is what we have government for, to plan. The entire pandemic has been reactionary so far and that’s a massive failure.

How many month's discussion do you need to say 'ok, everyone who wants the vaccine has had it, we now treat it like the flu'?

It's a five minute discussion.

The hard bit is getting everyone to that point... securing the vaccine, distribution, education, incentives. We're already well in to that now.

 

[N860CR]

How many month's discussion do you need to say 'ok, everyone who wants the vaccine has had it, we now treat it like the flu'?

You haven’t done much work with government, have you?

 

[Kremmen]

Interesting perspectives here. I’m a rusted on Liberal voter, and the thought of voting to the left horrifies me, but, I’m mad as hell at the state of international border restrictions and related messaging.

I very rarely contact politicians, but I emailed my local Federal MP (Lib) some months ago and pointed out that the only important thing they had to do this year was to get everyone vaccinated and that, given the cost of lockdowns, no cost should be spared in obtaining necessary supplies by any means necessary. I went on to say that she will be last on my ballot forever if the original schedule of allowing international travel by October is missed. I wish everyone else would contact their local MP with the same message.

 

[Flashback]

I think UAE has already moved to the amber list...EK has a CRAZY ad out to celebrate this fact.

Yes, Doha is amber also.

It’s a conversation that should have started months ago. This is what we have government for, to plan. The entire pandemic has been reactionary so far and that’s a massive failure.

We’ve now had two slightly significant outbreaks in Australia. The difference between Melbourne and Sydney? In the Sydney case, we’re not seeing mass casualties.

Different variants? Or have there been lots of deaths in the recent VIC "outbreaks"?

 

[Must...Fly!]

Different variants? Or have there been lots of deaths in the recent VIC "outbreaks"?

The OP is presumably referring to the 800 odd deaths from nursing homes last year in Victoria. Most notably of course these happened prior to any vaccines being available.

 

[Pushka]

I very rarely contact politicians, but I emailed my local Federal MP (Lib) some months ago and pointed out that the only important thing they had to do this year was to get everyone vaccinated and that, given the cost of lockdowns, no cost should be spared in obtaining necessary supplies by any means necessary. I went on to say that she will be last on my ballot forever if the original schedule of allowing international travel by October is missed. I wish everyone else would contact their local MP with the same message.

I have emailed both my Fed Rep and Sen Birmingham as SA rep. First email back was they wanted my address to confirm "he is acting in the best interests of South Australians" . Duly provided that then wrote another email. Blah blah here's our plan moving forward. Next time I sent an email to local radio station who was about to interview Birmingham. They read it to him on air and asked him to respond. Yeah. But More blah. But you never know, small steps.