Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[dajop]

But there’s nothing wrong with optimism! Either the vaccine is ready, or we set a new deadline.

The doom and gloom and pessimism doesn’t get anyone any further towards hope of happiness!

I'm not sure it's about optimism vs pessimism.

I think it's those who want to temper their expectations and maybe be pleasantly surprised, vs those who are quite optimistic, but get disappointed every other month. In March the optimists were suggesting 6 months, the realists were suggesting 18 months, maybe a little quicker. The optimists, come September, are almost certainly going to be sorely disappointed.

 

[drron]

Possibly approved, but yet to be widely available.

I think more important than vaccine, should be the development of a cure. There are some promising cure that I feel our mainstream media are too focus on a vaccine than on a cure.

I know a cure could potentially take longer, or could be shorter because we have a lot of patients waiting to get into clinical trials.

Once we have a cure, then I am sure things can change quickly to reopen the borders without the need of a vaccine.

Unfortunately the news reports never focus on what can go wrong in vaccine trials.
You need to read about Antibody Dependent Enhancement.It has been known for a long time and is very important when it comes to the dengue virus.People having dengue for the first time more often have a mild but still debilitating disease.Unfortunately there are 4 strains of dengue virus and those who already heve had dengue and get infected by one of the other strains often have far worse disease and more likely to die from it due to ADE.I have seen both dengue haemorrhagic fever and dengue shock syndrome having worked a bit in FNQ.Believe me you don't want either.

The problem is ADE has been seen in both SARS and MERS and some laboratory evidence it does occur with Covid 19.What this means is that a vaccine may successfully produce antibodies but that antibody response may not stop infection but increase disease severity.It has been shown already in Chinese monkeys and a human cell line in the laboratory.

Molecular Mechanism for Antibody-Dependent Enhancement of Coronavirus Entry

Antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE) of viral entry has been a major concern for epidemiology, vaccine development, and antibody-based drug therapy. However, the molecular mechanism behind ADE is still elusive. Coronavirus spike protein mediates viral entry into cells by first binding to a...

jvi.asm.org

Because of this phase 2 and 3 of the vaccine trials will not be rushed.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

The optimists, come September, are almost certainly going to be sorely disappointed.

That’s the thing... I’m not going to be sorely disappointed. Just move to the next potential milestone. Better to have hope than give up entirely? I’m planning my next trip, for july next year. I’d rather be having fun planning than sitting down moping around and telling myself not way’.

 

[Gremlin]

Also take note on the date 8/8/2020. This is the day where Fung Shui master has mentioned the pandemic will get better.

I think there is far too much money is being siphoned off into "so-called" medical research and immunology. Surely we should be diverting some serious funding into controlling all the negative qi that the virus has created?

 

[JohnPhelan]

I'm not sure it's about optimism vs pessimism.

I think it's those who want to temper their expectations and maybe be pleasantly surprised, vs those who are quite optimistic, but get disappointed every other month. In March the optimists were suggesting 6 months, the realists were suggesting 18 months, maybe a little quicker. The optimists, come September, are almost certainly going to be sorely disappointed.

It's all about expectation management. You should always under promise and over deliver. AJ is usually pretty good at this. So if he is saying QF hopes to be flying internationally by mid-2021, you can bet he thinks it will actually be earlier than that.

But no-one really knows. Until (if) there is a vaccine or effective treatment, everyone is just guessing. Some make more educated guesses than others.

 

[VPS]

I'm an optimist but also a realist. The OP has continually talked about vaccines being available this year and if not a cure. As a scientist it is difficult to explain to people that however optimistic you are, you need to be prepared to be realistic when dealing with vaccines and especially a cure.

 

[Pushka]

And I'm one who factors in being disappointed, I avoid that wherever possible so guess that makes me a pessimist. On the other hand if I dont have a sense of hope then I'm in a much worse space. So in order to get through all this mess I have to hope that in 12 months time there will be both a realistic method of prevention and a much better sense of safe treatment.

 

[drron]

A survey of Health Care leaders in the US on when they think the pandemic will be over.
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So 61% think it won't be the "new"normal until at least the second half of 2021.

 

[Himeno]

In early Feb, I was about to lock down getting tickets for a trip to Japan for golden week and some events happening in Tokyo, then everything got shut down. Those events were later cancelled.

They've just announced a week of events in/around Tokyo for mid Oct. Events I would be have been looking at going to. At a time I would have been starting my yearly holiday. The events had been announced a while ago, but the dates and venues only just got released a few days ago. The timing would have been perfect for my normal travel plans, but alas, no travel allowed in Oct/Nov.
They have announced paid online stream viewing of (some) these events. I can only hope that they make these streams easily accessible for overseas fans.

Doesn't help that by Oct, my annual leave balance is going to reach 8 weeks which work deems "excessive", at which point they try to force people to use it. (They only count annual leave towards "excessive leave", not personal or long service.)
I'm not wasting my annual or long service leave to be stuck at home.

 

[PineappleSkip]

I feel by December we could have a vaccine approved already

I feel tired . If I start to feel sick and tired, I’ll go get tested.

 

[love_the_life]

I'm not a pessimist but with COVID and a few other things going on here, can't really do much planning for holidays at present. When we booked the cruise to NZ over Christmas we thought travel to NZ at least was going to be on the cards. Won't be by the look of it. Can't get enthralled about seriously planning any trips mid next year. Maybe it's the pandemic bleh.

 

[lahlee]

I'm not a pessimist but with COVID and a few other things going on here, can't really do much planning for holidays at present. When we booked the cruise to NZ over Christmas we thought travel to NZ at least was going to be on the cards. Won't be by the look of it. Can't get enthralled about seriously planning any trips mid next year. Maybe it's the pandemic bleh.

I agree that planning is impossible at the moment. We had a month-long trip booked to the US for this month, which was obviously cancelled many months ago. About 2 months ago we realised our schedules were still free, and thought we'd make the most of things and do an Aussie road trip instead (hoping to support some Aussie businesses along the way), so planned a trip to Northern NSW to visit friends. This was cancelled when the border to VIC was closed. We then made plans to do a local trip to regional VIC to visit family, only to be thumped by the Melbourne Metro lockdown. Don't get me wrong, not complaining about the lockdown, but it shows that even the most humble travel plans can be thrown into disarray in these crazy times. I admire the people showing optimism for future planning of trips - I wish I could muster it in myself. The planning is such a big part of it for most of us on the forum, and I'm used to it occupying my thoughts.

 

[drron]

Indeed really hard to plan any trips .We had a trip to WA planned for August.Fortunately QF cancelled our flights last week so everything has been cancelled without penalty.
So a month ago we switched to a drive to Sydney to see the grandkids.Reaaranged a couple of LE escapes on the way there.But the grandkids live in Paddington-a hotel and restaurant involved and they look over Potts Point.I can see us being told by AP we can't go there.
Have reorganised our WA trip for next April.Not confident it will actually occur though hopefully CP has some success in court.

 

[Pushka]

Sicily looks wonderful today. Not!

 

[Seat0B]

We may not shake hands again, and lots of other social rituals will change in ways we haven't even considered yet.

I reckon I will never eat a birthday cake after someone blows out the candles ever again, that's for sure!

 

[drron]

Well AP is living up to my expectations.She hasn't told us yet that we can't go to NSW but today she told us we shouldn't go even though she hasn't closed the border.

Palaszczuk warns Queenslanders against travelling to NSW

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk tells Queenslanders now is not the time to leave their home state, as the Prime Minister makes a flying visit and pointedly stays out of the conversation.

www.abc.net.au

 

[jakeseven7]

Well AP is living up to my expectations.She hasn't told us yet that we can't go to NSW but today she told us we shouldn't go even though she hasn't closed the border.

Palaszczuk warns Queenslanders against travelling to NSW

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk tells Queenslanders now is not the time to leave their home state, as the Prime Minister makes a flying visit and pointedly stays out of the conversation.

www.abc.net.au

Cheap point scoring politics, someone’s got an election to win.

 

[dajop]

I reckon I will never eat a birthday cake after someone blows out the candles ever again, that's for sure!

Although if it's someone from your own household that blows out the candles it the increased risk is probably negligible.

 

[CityRail]

I'm not sure it's about optimism vs pessimism.

I think it's those who want to temper their expectations and maybe be pleasantly surprised, vs those who are quite optimistic, but get disappointed every other month. In March the optimists were suggesting 6 months, the realists were suggesting 18 months, maybe a little quicker. The optimists, come September, are almost certainly going to be sorely disappointed.

I don't think 18 months is realistic. If it is for 18 months, then the social costs would be excessively high. Moreover, the last pandemic Spanish Flu was for 18 months, if we still need 18 months to end the Coronavirus pandemic, then it proves that our medical technology has not advanced in the past 100 years.

Now we have 5 vaccine candidates that are in Phase 3 trials, with a number of treatments in advanced stages of trial as well. Therefore I don't understand why we will need to wait so long for the pandemic to be over. Yes I think so for some poorer countries, but Australia is a rich country and we are set to receive vaccines first right after US and the UK.

With the suggestion from the Treasury as well as current development of a vaccine, I believe the pandemic will take 6 - 9 months from March, i.e. it should have a lot more positive developments as 2020 is drawn to a close. Even now we are facing an outbreak in Victoria, I am sure this will be controlled in 3 - 6 weeks' time and that we will have Trans-Tasman Travel Bubble by the end of the year, preferably after NZ's September election.

 

[drron]

Well here is a real story of a rushed vaccine and what did happen.

Risk, uncertainty and fear of failure: Why scientists aren't celebrating a coronavirus vaccine yet

Scientific community wrestling with how to deal with both public hesitancy and overblown expectations for a potential jab

www.telegraph.co.uk

So I doubt many will want to rush the phase 3 trials.