Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[Pushka]

I hope he is completely wrong but fear he may be correct esp. if an effective, widely available vaccine is not available.

No overseas flights for ‘a few years’

Virgin chief executive officer Paul Scurrah says there may be no return to overseas flights for the airline for up to three years after the COVID-19 pandemic decimated the travel industry.

www.news.com.au

That’s just his airline. More at play there.

 

[tgh]

A mitigating factor to JB's bleak summary is demand.
Many (most??) first world people have , so far, sailed through Covid relatively unscathed financially.
There is almost certainly a tremendous unfulfilled desire to travel..somewhere.
Capitalist societies have a basic function of meeting commercial opportunities , that's why bankrupt cruise lines can continue to sell cruises they will never make and raise cash from investors that they may never pay back.

 

[Gremlin]

A mitigating factor to JB's bleak summary is demand.
Many (most??) first world people have , so far, sailed through Covid relatively unscathed financially.
There is almost certainly a tremendous unfulfilled desire to travel..somewhere.
Capitalist societies have a basic function of meeting commercial opportunities , that's why bankrupt cruise lines can continue to sell cruises they will never make and raise cash from investors that they may never pay back.

A mitigating factor to demand is supply.

Not supply of airlines willing to fly in/out of Australia, but supply of safe inbound quarantine. Put bluntly, no one knows how to do this safely at scale. All states have had problems with their own quarantine programs, obviously not all as catastrophic as Vic. All governments in the country, state and federal, are in violent agreement that they can't have another Victoria on their hands. I don't think PS is too far off the mark...

 

[flyer89]

Surviving airlines will be government owned or supported. Those that aren’t will be gone.

I keep stating this to friends and family. Most look at me like I have ten heads. i don't think the average Joe comprehends just how catastrophic this has already been.

 

[dajop]

Nope. That wasnt the case with him. He's only spent maybe three weeks on two different occasions overseas. The wording has changed in the email he received I think reflects his intent to stay overseas for at least 3 months. With him, his visa will be a working one for two years plus extensions. Additionally if the departure port changes he doesnt have to resubmit.

OK, got it. We're talking different things here. So, if you need to apply for an exemption to travel, need to stay overseas for at least 3 months. Whilst for those who are ordinarily resident overseas, no need to apply for exemption, but need to demonstrate more time spent overseas than inside Australia over last 1-2 years.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

I keep stating this to friends and family. Most look at me like I have ten heads. i don't think the average Joe comprehends just how catastrophic this has already been.

But the catastrophe is partly airline made. They created demand where no demand existed... all economy planes with smaller toilets and extra rows crammed in so they could offer £5 fares to europe. Flights no one would ever have contemplated taking but for the low fares. Then petrol goes up and airlines go into debt, and future bookings are going to fund commitments for next week.

You have a pandemic and future bookings dry up and you’re in trouble. Perhaps this sort of business model shouldn’t be allowed in future?

As for state owned or heavily subsidised airlines... i don’t have a problem with that. Who cares who owns the airline? And countries like indonesia say they are going to heavily subsidised new routes to USA and Europe just to get tourists into the country. Again, no problem with that!

I’ll go back to a point in made earlier... 1 million are out of work (more now because of the Vic stage 4), but there are 12 million still in work. They will want to travel again. If airlines hadn’t got themselves into so much debt, the industry might not have seen so many airlines fold.

 

[Robert K]

so you're saying any business that can't survive 3 month of zero revenue should not be allowed in the future?

 

[dajop]

I'll say this in jest, maybe with the modelliing that is mentioned in a different thread, suggesting Victoria will see >1000 cases a day for the next month, at least, and with borders sealed to the rest of Australia, maybe Victoria can open up travel to other countries (if they'll have Victorians).

Adjusted for population, the number of new positive diagnose in the US yesterday is equivalent to 1091 in Victoria, UK rate equivalent to 89, Spain equivalent to 409...

 

[There'sOnlyOneJimmy]

Snip...

Adjusted for population, the number of new positive diagnose in the US yesterday is equivalent to 1091 in Victoria, UK rate equivalent to 89, Spain equivalent to 409...

That’s not really a fair comparison, I think... you’re comparing one State against other entire Countries. Try doing the same per capita comparison of Victoria’s numbers against the States of Texas or Florida for example...

 

[Pushka]

OK, got it. We're talking different things here. So, if you need to apply for an exemption to travel, need to stay overseas for at least 3 months. Whilst for those who are ordinarily resident overseas, no need to apply for exemption, but need to demonstrate more time spent overseas than inside Australia over last 1-2 years.

Given his exemption came through in less than 24 hours, maybe that is the easiest way to proceed?

 

[dajop]

Given his exemption came through in less than 24 hours, maybe that is the easiest way to proceed?

Probably no need, my documentation might even be overkill. My partner's boss went back last weekend (he was here same amount of time as us, arrived a week earlier ) and said he had no problems getting out.

 

[dajop]

That’s not really a fair comparison, I think... you’re comparing one State against other entire Countries. Try doing the same per capita comparison of Victoria’s numbers against the States of Texas or Florida for example...

In the context of travel, California is where most would travel to from Australia, there equivalence to Victoria is 893 a day right now. Their peak was almost equivalent to 2000 cases in Victoria.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

so you're saying any business that can't survive 3 month of zero revenue should not be allowed in the future?

if you have to close down and sack your entire workforce if you get asked to refund goods and services (flights) up to a year away, there's something not quite right

 

[Pushka]

Probably no need, my documentation might even be overkill. My partner's boss went back last weekend (he was here same amount of time as us, arrived a week earlier ) and said he had no problems getting out.

So into the nitty gritty. Trying to avoid Sydney and Melbourne and likely no direct flights out from Adelaide, if he flies Adelaide - Perth then on to Dubai/Doha, I take it that WA doesnt have any issues with passengers flying into Perth on transit?

 

[dajop]

So into the nitty gritty. Trying to avoid Sydney and Melbourne and likely no direct flights out from Adelaide, if he flies Adelaide - Perth then on to Dubai/Doha, I take it that WA doesnt have any issues with passengers flying into Perth on transit?

Flexible as to timing or airline? Or looking for QFF points award (hence DXB/DOH)? If not what about SQ, fly out of ADL every Tuesday, although it's 8 hrs in a holding pen at SIN for the connection to LHR (or probably $200 for 6 hrs in transit hotel).

 

[Pushka]

Flexible as to timing or airline? Or looking for QFF points award (hence DXB/DOH)? If not what about SQ, fly out of ADL every Tuesday, although it's 8 hrs in a holding pen at SIN for the connection to LHR.

That would seem to be a very safe option. I am concerned about the ME. Thanks!

Edit - Adelaide doesnt seem bookable on SQ and also doesnt come up as an option on webjet. Maybe it cant be done online.

 

[OATEK]

Apparently they look at your immigration records over the last 1-2 years, and you need to have spent more time outside of Australian than inside. I'm on the cusp for 1 year (thanks to this stay), but easily make it over a 2 year period. Will see how it works out on the day.

I look forward to a trip report associated with flying!!!!

 

[Gremlin]

That would seem to be a very safe option. I am concerned about the ME. Thanks!

I also don't think transiting in PER would be a given. If he plans this route, I'd check with WA authorities before booking flights - last thing you want is nasty surprises.

Secondly, even if the PER transit is completely kosher, the risk of flight cancellations and reschedules is huge right now. Flying ADL-PER and PER-DOH-LHR (or PER-DXB-LHR) on separate tix is a far cry from ADL-SIN-LHR all on one ticket. The fewer number of connections and the fewer tickets wins for me right now...

 

[Pushka]

Thanks @Gremlin and @dajop and I agree. I finally found the SQ option by doing a multi city booking. He can get PE on the overnight flight for a reasonable fare.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Friend of mine flew MEL-SYD last night to connect with an international flight to asia today. Applied for permit on line, selected transit. No issues, everything went smoothly. Had to stay in a hotel in SYD, as expected.