Predictions of when international flights may resume/bans lifted

[RAM]

I quite sure that will be a requirement, but not just from Oz. It won't be written in that language though...

The records side of things will be very interesting. It won't be some little book or certificate that you have. You have to wonder if that medical records system that so many opted out of a year or two back might have a rebirth. No records, no passport, no go.

Had a reason to access all the material on my Health Record.

Hold on, what material? Nothing there but 2 summarised discharge summaries!

So I rang the helpline & was told that most public hospitals & pretty much all GPs are not uploading any information unless, you, the patient ask/insist.

As it happened - I had asked our very large public hospital, including just 4 days earlier, to upload all the test results etc as I was waiting on a number of test results to come through from an unusual incident....

Shocked to find virtually nothing there at all, not even the test results that had come through before discharged (& luckily I asked for a paper copy before I left).

So rang & spoke with hospital, spun a yarn about how I should have asked.... Did not go there, asked if all the material could be added.

Told yes it would be. 9 weeks later - nothing. Despite 3 follow-up calls including speaking with the Ward clerical assistant. On the 2nd follow-up call to hospital I was told the results of the outstanding tests. I hope the person told me the truth....

So, if International flying became dependant on MyHealth record - I may as well sell the suitcases now!

 

[Seat0B]

I found it interesting that the RAAF had had their own ICV, the photo that I posted was the one the ARA gave me in 1989. I continued to use it after I left the ARA until it was full and now have one branded Travel Clinics Australia. I suspect my Dad still all the family ICVs from the 70's (pre smallpox version) from when he was posted to the UK.

They certainly did @Matt_01! In fact I am still using this booklet as it is not yet full. Most places I’ve travelled haven’t required any significant immunisations, so I still have a few lines to spare.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Just as well I don’t like Qantas International then. They don’t like Adelaide.

Maybe QF doesn't need to worry when they start flying again? They have so many people captured with vouchers. No need to worry about all those folk going with the competition?

 

[HokitikaGold]

AJ still predicting July

Qantas boss Alan Joyce says international travel is unlikely from Australia before July next year

Australia's largest airline has suffered a $4 billion hit in revenue from the coronavirus pandemic.

amp.sbs.com.au

IMHO I think Joyce is on the money. July 2021 at earliest for QF international. But this will only happen if vaccine rollouts are able to be done by then - otherwise the date will be pushed ever forward. What to take from this? July 2021 is the optimists date. With any hiccups it will be end of 2021 or beyond.

 

[ethernet]

+1 for Joyce on the Money. However maybe Trade partners may pressure Australia via ISDS provisions sooner, as bulk vaccine for 1st countries may be ready by November, and bashed out in Jan. Then there is the time for 1st elites to develop a response, and some need a booster. I understand some have unpleasant side effects discomfort/headaches. I really think the WHO candidates show a fall off curve in as little as 2-3 months. I sure hope Australia is not Irish enough to say lets observe for another 3 months- to be sure to be sure... and a blood test.. The vaccine is risk management, and the FDA has a lowish mark of 50% on effective. As Joyce has added 4-5 months, there must be some red tape delay bad news being kept from us little people.

Some businesses make 30% of their profit on Xmas/NY and Joyce held his voice. Hopefully a lot of overgeared Qld businesses will fold, with employment multipliers, forcing rational operations research to override political pandering.

 

[drron]

Well we really shouldn't have to wait for a vaccine as we still don't know if they will be effective anyway.After the Spanish Flu epidemic the world got back to normal in just over 2 years from the end of the 1919 wave even though there was a 4th wave in 2020.There was a severe depression in 1920/21 but then the roaring 20's started.
And in those days there was no vaccine and no effective treatment for the flu.The flu virus was first isolated in 1933 and the first monovalent vaccine was produced in 1938 but not used extensively until after the USA entered WW2 and began vaccinating their military.
The first bivalent vaccine was in 1942,trivalent in 1978 and it wasn't until 2012 the first quadrivalent vaccine became available.

The flu vaccine is also usually only 40-60% effective in preventing flu and it does wear off after a few months.Hence a new vaccine every year basically.Also means if you have had the flu vaccine in March/April here and decide to go say skiing in the US in december/January you should have another shot before you go-but hardly anyone thinks of that.

So we are going to have to learn to live with Covid-19.It is about time we started learning.

 

[I love to travel]

Well we really shouldn't have to wait for a vaccine as we still don't know if they will be effective anyway.After the Spanish Flu epidemic the world got back to normal in just over 2 years from the end of the 1919 wave even though there was a 4th wave in 2020.There was a severe depression in 1920/21 but then the roaring 20's started.
And in those days there was no vaccine and no effective treatment for the flu.The flu virus was first isolated in 1933 and the first monovalent vaccine was produced in 1938 but not used extensively until after the USA entered WW2 and began vaccinating their military.
The first bivalent vaccine was in 1942,trivalent in 1978 and it wasn't until 2012 the first quadrivalent vaccine became available.

The flu vaccine is also usually only 40-60% effective in preventing flu and it does wear off after a few months.Hence a new vaccine every year basically.Also means if you have had the flu vaccine in March/April here and decide to go say skiing in the US in december/January you should have another shot before you go-but hardly anyone thinks of that.

So we are going to have to learn to live with Covid-19.It is about time we started learning.

I think the more pertinent question is whether we are prepared to learn to live with people dying from it and an increase in our taxes to pay for the health care costs.

 

[RAM]

Given that Qantas stopped all International passenger flights the day after the Federal Govt stopped paying for them - signals what is driving our 'National Carrier'. Remember AJ gave Australians overseas no warning that this was about to happen, no opportunity to come back earlier.

Just like with his grounding of Qantas in 2014 - it seems Australians are not his priority.

It seems that we need to be focusing more on the only dependable carrier into Australia - Qatar Airlines is the only one who has been servicing multiple Australian cities continuously. United has been 'flying the flag' on a much reduced basis through to the US, and SIA has provided some access most of the time.

With the per flight restrictions now making it hard for those International airlines to break-even (30 passengers max load for 14+ hour flight) perhaps the question needs to be more:

"When will international travel to/from Australia CEASE entirely?"

As there are no sporting tournaments in the northern hemisphere to attract our politicians & senior bureaucrats to conduct 'Northern Summer' fact finding tours - do the politicians even care?

The Federal Govt has painted itself into a corner with the refusal to help VA. AJ in his 'The Govt has no place in bailing out badly run airlines' looks as if he be 'hoist on his own petard'.

The fact that he cancelled all international flights without notice makes Q open to be sued in a class action for all flights it cancelled going to or from the US.

Fun times ahead indeed - but not for international travel - just the lawyers!

 

[drron]

I think the more pertinent question is whether we are prepared to learn to live with people dying from it and an increase in our taxes to pay for the health care costs.

We live with up to 1000 people a year dying from the flu in Australia.Why is covid different?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

@RAM... i think freight is the answer? And outbound pax.

If we go back to the article on AFF ‘the cost of operating a flight’, it states a SYD-DFW costs around $178,284. That was on higher fuel prices, and a full plane (heavy).

Only 30 pax that would work out to $5933 a ticket. Which is about what the airlines are charging for business class these days for say a DOH-SYD. Then you can add mail and freight to take up the weight freed up by no pax and no bags.

They might not be doing too badly in terms of hanging in.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

We live with up to 1000 people a year dying from the flu in Australia.Why is covid different?

Because i can get vaccinated against the flu. There is nothing I can do for covid.

I know the flu vaccine isn’t totally effective, but if I have had the vaccine and still get the flu, IIRC i’m less likely to die? (ie the vaccine lessens the severity?)

So in a sense, it’s a choice not to get vaccinated against the flu and take the consequences. No such choice at the moment with covid.

 

[drron]

So you are comfortable with 1000 people a year dying of a viral illness.and of course the flu kills more younger people on a percentage basis than covid has.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So you are comfortable with 1000 people a year dying of a viral illness.and of course the flu kills more younger people on a percentage basis than covid has.

Absolutely not comfortable with that. Huge strain on medical resources. But for most people - I guess there must be some medical exceptions - it’s a choice whether you get vaccinated or not. If Covid was only killing those who chose not to get vaccinated, we’d be in a very different situation now.

 

[drron]

But people who have had the flu vaccine can and do die from the flu.But we accept that.
The real problem with Covid is that a lot of politicians along with the media have run a very effective fear campaign.Sure it is not a benign virus but why do most who comment on it stress the worst predictions rather than the best predictions.All the major media articles on covid modelling only ever give the upper limit of projected cases and deaths.As usual the truth is somewhere in the middle.

 

[tgh]

All things being equal…a fearful sheep is easier to manage and paying more attention than an overconfident "me" sheep.
To that end the press hype has likely assisted with slowing infection spread.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

But people who have had the flu vaccine can and do die from the flu.But we accept that.
The real problem with Covid is that a lot of politicians along with the media have run a very effective fear campaign.Sure it is not a benign virus but why do most who comment on it stress the worst predictions rather than the best predictions.All the major media articles on covid modelling only ever give the upper limit of projected cases and deaths.As usual the truth is somewhere in the middle.

The 1000 people dying from flu have all been vaccinated?

Or is the risk of death from flu, after vaccination, significantly (almost totally?) reduced?

The issue here is that regular folk don’t have options to protect themselves, to manage the risk. That’s the difference between covid and the flu.

 

[VPS]

Well we really shouldn't have to wait for a vaccine as we still don't know if they will be effective anyway.After the Spanish Flu epidemic the world got back to normal in just over 2 years from the end of the 1919 wave even though there was a 4th wave in 2020.There was a severe depression in 1920/21 but then the roaring 20's started.
And in those days there was no vaccine and no effective treatment for the flu.The flu virus was first isolated in 1933 and the first monovalent vaccine was produced in 1938 but not used extensively until after the USA entered WW2 and began vaccinating their military.
The first bivalent vaccine was in 1942,trivalent in 1978 and it wasn't until 2012 the first quadrivalent vaccine became available.

The flu vaccine is also usually only 40-60% effective in preventing flu and it does wear off after a few months.Hence a new vaccine every year basically.Also means if you have had the flu vaccine in March/April here and decide to go say skiing in the US in december/January you should have another shot before you go-but hardly anyone thinks of that.

So we are going to have to learn to live with Covid-19.It is about time we started learning.

2 years from the end of the 1919 wave even though there was a 4th wave in 2020

Are we experiencing the 4th wave of the Spanish flu as well as Covid?

 

[drron]

Thanks VPS now corrected.Just another senior moment.

 

[drron]

The 1000 people dying from flu have all been vaccinated?

Or is the risk of death from flu, after vaccination, significantly (almost totally?) reduced?

The issue here is that regular folk don’t have options to protect themselves, to manage the risk. That’s the difference between covid and the flu.

So the severe cases and death from flu are reduced by 40-50%.So there is still a significant problem.
And with the flu we do not count as a flu death someone who is going to die,say with cancer,as a flu death if they happen to have had it in the month prior to their death though we do so with Covid.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

So the severe cases and death from flu are reduced by 40-50%.So there is still a significant problem.
And with the flu we do not count as a flu death someone who is going to die,say with cancer,as a flu death if they happen to have had it in the month prior to their death though we do so with Covid.

So i go back to the original answer to your question. Covid gets the attention because there is no vaccine... no choice we can make to ‘save’ ourselves or not. With covid we are at the mercy of all those around us.