QANTAS being taken over by Macquarie Bank..

[serfty]

... The only realistic decision is to block this deal and replace the QF board and senior management with competent people.

Not really a realistic option as the ONLY way to ensure this happened would be to attain control of more than 50% of the shares.

 

[JohnK]

Not really a realistic option as the ONLY way to ensure this happened would be to attain control of more than 50% of the shares.

Substitute sensible for realistic!

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

Substitute sensible for realistic!

Ah so you aren't riding in as a white knight with an offer at $7 then

 

[simongr]

Not really a realistic option as the ONLY way to ensure this happened would be to attain control of more than 50% of the shares.

Actually I think you would only need 11% wouldnt you? My company law is a bit rusty but once over 90% (?) of shareholders agree to the deal than the remianing shareholders have to agree. So based on a valuation of $11BN - you need about $1.1BN. At $50k per pilot that is 2,200 pilots required to each put some money in. Are there that many pilots? And you need someone to sell their shares - presumably you will have to offer more than the purchase price offered - so that 2,200 pilots becomes say 2,300...

 

[serfty]

That was in reference to the removal of directors, not acceptance of takeover offers/bids.

 

[simongr]

Ooops - my bad. Still it shows what the pilots are going to have to do if they want a say in this.

I am just waiting for someone to suggest that we start boycotting the companies that own the curent shares in QF if they sell as a way of pursuading them not to sell their shares

 

[Altair]

Actually I think you would only need 11% wouldnt you? My company law is a bit rusty but once over 90% (?) of shareholders agree to the deal than the remianing shareholders have to agree. So based on a valuation of $11BN - you need about $1.1BN. At $50k per pilot that is 2,200 pilots required to each put some money in. Are there that many pilots? And you need someone to sell their shares - presumably you will have to offer more than the purchase price offered - so that 2,200 pilots becomes say 2,300...

Do not forget that some employees already own shares, additionally the industry super funds have ownership of shares as well but in the article below it points to the paradox that some unions have when they are trustees of the superfunds, they have a fiduciary responsiblity that may compel them to sell...
Unions in Qantas shares dilemma | Aviation | The Australian

 

[codash1099]

Not really a realistic option as the ONLY way to ensure this happened would be to attain control of more than 50% of the shares.

I recall seeing somewhere that the bid is conditional on getting 90% acceptance. Without that, they can't compulsorily purchase the remaining 10% or so, which would mean the company would have to remain listed on the stock exchange - not what they want.

 

[JohnK]

Actually I think you would only need 11% wouldnt you? My company law is a bit rusty but once over 90% (?) of shareholders agree to the deal than the remianing shareholders have to agree.

The reference was to my comments to remove the directors and senior management if the deal fell through.

So based on a valuation of $11BN - you need about $1.1BN. At $50k per pilot that is 2,200 pilots required to each put some money in.

Actually your calculations only give them $110 million which is 1%. They would need 22,000 pilots or invest $500K each for a 10% share.

 

[QF WP]

I somehow don't think the pilots believe they can block the sale by themselves; however they would be hoping that together with other interest groups and retail investors; they will be able to make the blocking stake of 10%.

For one, I have not yet made up my mind. I don't particularly want to have to buy back my shareholding in 8 to 10 years time, having allowed somebody else to profit from the experience.

 

[Yada Yada]

I notice that the bad publicity surrounding the sale is beginning to cause problems:

ATW: Sliding stocks, questions over foreign interest beleaguer Qantas bid
Wednesday December 20, 2006
If any more cracks appear in their bid to buy Qantas, the Airline Partners Australia consortium members may have to put the deal back in the hangar for an overhaul.

Yesterday the airline's shares fell from a high of A$5.29 ($4.13) to close at A$5.23 despite a buyout offer of $5.60. However, that slide is not as great as that of APA principal investor Allco Equity Partners (34%), whose shares were valued at A$4.49 on Dec. 12 but closed at A$3.89 yesterday. Allco Finance Group (11%) shares are easing after a surge that followed initial news of the Qantas deal, and analysts are suggesting that the market is factoring in the growing opposition (ATWOnline, Dec. 19) along with debt levels and the conditions the government is certain to place on the new owners.

e-Travel Blackboard: Australia's Number One Industry Newsletter
Qantas CEO accuses media of being "near-hysterical" and misinformed
Qantas Airways’ CEO Geoff Dixon yesterday launched a scathing attack on the media outcry that has arisen from the impending sale of the national carrier. He has addressed issues that have concerned Australian editorial writers and commentators in the past few weeks. His response to the outcry has been caustic and has accused the debate of being misinformed, “near-hysterical” and a result of “blatant self-interest”.

Despite the fact that deal may be technically legal etc, it's possible that non-shareholders may yet influence whether the sales goes through or not.

And the best time to sell QF shares, if you have any, may have already passed.

 

[JohnK]

I notice that the bad publicity surrounding the sale is beginning to cause problems:

Hmm.... The phrase shooting yourself in the foot springs to mind.

It gets better!

Qantas CEO accuses media of being "near-hysterical" and misinformed
....
His response to the outcry has been caustic and has accused the debate of being misinformed, “near-hysterical” and a result of “blatant self-interest”.

Some might say the decision by the QF board and senior management to recommend the takeover was a result of "blatant self-interest".

Yesterday the airline's shares fell from a high of A$5.29 ($4.13) to close at A$5.23 despite a buyout offer of $5.60.

And continuing to fall!

However, that slide is not as great as that of APA principal investor Allco Equity Partners (34%), whose shares were valued at A$4.49 on Dec. 12 but closed at A$3.89 yesterday. Allco Finance Group (11%) shares are easing after a surge that followed initial news of the Qantas deal, and analysts are suggesting that the market is factoring in the growing opposition (ATWOnline, Dec. 19) along with debt levels and the conditions the government is certain to place on the new owners.

Allco may be a takeover target before QF shareholders get to vote on their own takeover.

 

[QF WP]

Allco Equity Partners advises its shareholders to prepare for turbulence in the run-up to the $11.1 billion bid for Qantas...

 

[Takeshi]

It just keeps getting worse for this silly takeover.
Macbank being investigated for overcharging at Rome Airport by 10 times what other Airports charge.

This whole takeover is more about these Private Equity predators making a profit for themselves, and really having no interest at all to grow Qantas.
Its a fees bonanza for all involved, and the real losers will be the public and the staff.

This takeover seems to get worse everyday.

What are you thoughts, do you think this bid is going to get approval ?

Takeshi

 

[Takeshi]

Qantas T/O Bid question

With the current T/O bid on Qantas, the consortium keeps stressing that no Qantas Assets will be sold.
Dixon on the other hand says, that everything is up for review.

I wanted to ask a question.
With this bid, does the consortium have to outline the plans they have for Qantas brfore lodging the bid ?
Do they have to tell shareholders the plan they have for Qantas ?

They could say anything, and wait a few months, then start selling Qantas divisions off like Holidays, Maintenace, Airports, Frequent Flyer, Catering.

What is the law here, this is really confusing to me, as the only way this consortium can make a healthy return from this is for Asset Sales.

Thanks again, Takeshi

 

[JohnK]

This takeover seems to get worse everyday.

Yes, it was woeful to start with and now it is horrendous.

What are you thoughts, do you think this bid is going to get approval ?

In theory it should be blocked by the powers to be but something tells me that the cowards will allow this shonky deal to go to a shareholder vote.

 

[JohnK]

Re: Qantas T/O Bid question

With the current T/O bid on Qantas, the consortium keeps stressing that no Qantas Assets will be sold.
Dixon on the other hand says, that everything is up for review.

Dixon is only a pawn in this whole deal. May not even have a job if the deal goes ahead.

With this bid, does the consortium have to outline the plans they have for Qantas brfore lodging the bid ?

No

Do they have to tell shareholders the plan they have for Qantas ?

Shareholders would only care how much they receive not what happens to Qantas.

They could say anything, and wait a few months, then start selling Qantas divisions off like Holidays, Maintenace, Airports, Frequent Flyer, Catering.

That appears to be their plan. Sell everything possible and then load QF with debt and relist on the stock exchange.

What is the law here, this is really confusing to me, as the only way this consortium can make a healthy return from this is for Asset Sales.

You appear to understand everything that is happening with this deal. Where is the confusion?

As long as they keep everything low profile and avoid scrutiny from ACCC, FRIB and Federal government then once the takeover occurs they will sell anything they can to recoup the money they will outlay.

Whether QF exists in 5 to 10 years is not their concern. Profit is their only concern. Very simple.

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

Re: Qantas T/O Bid question

the only way this consortium can make a healthy return from this is for Asset Sales.

See post #163 above

 

[simongr]

Re: Qantas T/O Bid question

That appears to be their plan. Sell everything possible and then load QF with debt and relist on the stock exchange.

Umm - do you have evidence of this? A business plan? A sale/purchase agreement? C'mon you really are assuming this without ANY evidence and putting it out there as FACT. You might as well say that AA have and EXP challenge - you have as much evidence for both pieces of information.

You appear to understand everything that is happening with this deal. Where is the confusion?

Well the amount of speculation, misinformation and incorrect assertions might be confusing.

As long as they keep everything low profile and avoid scrutiny from ACCC, FRIB and Federal government then once the takeover occurs they will sell anything they can to recoup the money they will outlay.

And the QF board can do that anyway. They could close the company down tomorrow, sell the assets and return the cash to shareholders if they wanted. The private equity firm is not the issue - its the market, the cost structure, the protectionism and the brand that are the problems.

 

[Soundguy]

Re: Qantas T/O Bid question

Dixon is only a pawn in this whole deal. May not even have a job if the deal goes ahead.

Yes, I can see how that could be a real concern for the poor chap. :mrgreen: