QANTAS being taken over by Macquarie Bank..

[serfty]

Actually, it seems to me that the Govt. has taken this opportunity to shore up more than a few issues with keeping Qantas Ozzified. (e.g. JQ can't be sold, major maintenace to remain in Oz).

This more restrictive tack should somewhat reduce the profits APA were hoping to make.

 

[codash1099]

Actually the quote I heard on the news was that they would retain a FF program - nothing about FF points Well it looks like we will finally see if the sky falls in soon...

The deed says no loss of points. It is silent on the value of those points, which makes the "no loss" clause meaningless.

 

[mabunji]

The deed says no loss of points. It is silent on the value of those points, which makes the "no loss" clause meaningless.

In the years that I have been enrolled in the Qantas Frequent Flyer program, there has been a tendancy for the points required to redeem a flight to increase (can't recall award flights ever getting cheaper !).

Most likely points will continue to be devalued and award flights will continue to increase in cost irrespective of whether a change of management occurs.

Essentially it is the market that dictates the value placed on award flights. Qantas (under whatever management structure) will continue to try and push for a higher points spend on each award flight - it is only when customers see better value in alternative awards schemes that the practise will stop.

 

[d15.in.oz]

… It is silent on the value of those points...

Well, in this forum it seems enough people have already bailed out of QF into AA’s program. And I am sure, many of us who fly less than these regulars, are only one QF “Value Enhancement” away from following suit…

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

The deed says no loss of points. It is silent on the value of those points

Of course. You didn't expect a commitment that number of points required will not increase or that number of award seats will not decrease?

 

[simongr]

In the years that I have been enrolled in the Qantas Frequent Flyer program, there has been a tendancy for the points required to redeem a flight to increase (can't recall award flights ever getting cheaper !).

Most likely points will continue to be devalued and award flights will continue to increase in cost irrespective of whether a change of management occurs.

Essentially it is the market that dictates the value placed on award flights. Qantas (under whatever management structure) will continue to try and push for a higher points spend on each award flight - it is only when customers see better value in alternative awards schemes that the practise will stop.

And in OZ there simply is not teh competition to keep them honest...

 

[Takeshi]

Do you think these 2 institutional shareholders are bluffing ??

 

[QF WP]

Well, hoping for a higher price for their shares...

 

[Takeshi]

APA have said that by Law they cannot raise the bid price.
The only way is to start all over again, and APA don't want to do that.

UBS Assett want Qantas to give them the 2008 forcast, but Qantas will not give this out to shareholders, but they made it available to APA.

UBS own about 6% of Qantas stock.
This is the sticking point.

If they are bluffing or not will be soon know as the bid gets closer to closing.
Me I think UBS are not bluffing, they see more Value in Qantas in the long term.
Anyway lets wait and see.

 

[QF WP]

There are lots of us that see more value in QF than was shown previous (to the bid). Perhaps it took this offer for the market to correlate that information.

I'd prefer to profit from QF's ongoing exprience, rather than APA. Of course, it looks like there are many others like me (and others on this Board that own QF shares).

 

[Dave Noble]

Two hold-outs hold up buyout

THE $11.1 billion private equity takeover bid for Qantas is in danger of collapse because of the airline's reluctance to provide investors with profit forecasts for the next financial year.

Full article at http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/two-holdouts-hold-up-buyout/2007/03/13/1173722467012.htm

Davel

 

[Takeshi]

Why won't Qantas give these institutional shareholders the 2008 forcast, it seems thats all thats needed for these guys to make up there mind.

But with only 15% acceptance's recieved already, its not much considering the Gov already has approved the buyout.
Anyway its very interesting, can't wait to see the result.

I think what will happen is that APA will extend once again, and hope that some world events happen in the meantime, and these guys might think lets get out now.
My theory anyway.

 

[serfty]

Going back to quotes from a respected Business Columnist, the Offer price for the APA bis has been gradually losing value since December: The real value of Qantas | Herald Sun

... The speed of advance in the share market, and the level to which the market has risen; making time a critical element in value.

And a surge of new money looking for a home, including huge sums freed from takeovers like Qantas itself.

The bid for Qantas was announced - and agreed by the board - in mid-December. Since then the market has risen 7.3 per cent.

A crude comparison would be that the bid would have to be lifted from $5.45 to $5.85 per Qantas share just to maintain value relative to the broader market.

Now that can't happen. The bidders have ruled out any increase in their offer price and the way the Takeover Code is applied that stops them absolutely. ...

 

[NM]

And today Qantas has addressed the speculation and continued requests from shareholders for Qantas' financial forecast for 2008. Their media release can be seen on the ASX web site.

 

[NM]

And its hit the mainstream media site now:

Qantas confirms profits to jump | NEWS.com.au Business

 

[simongr]

Its hard to know what the reaction is. They arent forecasting a dramatic rise in profits next year so if anyone was holding out on that basis then tehy migth be more inclined to sell - but if they expected a fall then a hold position might be more likely.

APA really are in a hole on this - the market is moving all over the place and they cant move at all...

 

[QF WP]

Hmmm, some articles I must have missed last week:

Brokers to be paid up to $750 for every one of their Qantas shareholder clients who accepts the $5.45-a-share takeover offer for the airline...

The future of the $11 billion bid for Qantas was still uncertain yesterday with two major shareholders still holding back on their acceptance of the bid by Airline Partners Australia which is now worth $5.45 a share...

Qantas will be able to switch off interest payments at any time and without immediate penalty on the massive $10 billion of debt being raised by the private equity consortium to buy the airline and fund its future activities...

 

[Takeshi]

The 1992 Qantas Sale Act states that Qantas must locate its Head Office and Facilities such as Catering and maintenance in Australia........ (THEIR).
So why was it the just as early as last year Qantas put up for sale its Catering Division.
The interested buyers were Singapore Airlines, Emirates, LSG Skychefs, and Gate Gourmet, ALL foreign owned companies.

They decided to retain the Catering business, as they saw more value in keeping it, or maybe the money wasn't right who knows the real truth.
Would have this been a breach of the QSA ?

Even now its quite obvious that APA if they get Qantas will sell-off Catering, so really this QSA is not worth the paper its written on.

They can sell-off Catering, and outsource it, which means Qantas Catering employees which I am sure would be in the thousands would not be working for Qantas anymore, so then onto Maintenance, and administration ect ect.
Suddenly Qantas's workforce goes from 37,000 to about 20,000, but catering is still done in Australia by a foreign owned comapny, so APA will say whats the problem with that.
What are your thoughts on the real meaning of the Qantas Sales Act ?

 

[JohnK]

My gut feeling says that APA is not really interested after the recent stock market correction.

QF will remain a public company on the ASX.

 

[simongr]

The 1992 Qantas Sale Act states that Qantas must locate its Head Office and Facilities such as Catering and maintenance in Australia........ (THEIR).
So why was it the just as early as last year Qantas put up for sale its Catering Division.
The interested buyers were Singapore Airlines, Emirates, LSG Skychefs, and Gate Gourmet, ALL foreign owned companies.

They decided to retain the Catering business, as they saw more value in keeping it, or maybe the money wasn't right who knows the real truth.
Would have this been a breach of the QSA ?

There would still in all likelihood be a local head office. My interpretation of that extract from the ACT would indicate that that QF couldnt outsource the services to a foreign based business but would be ok to sell to a foreign owned business as long as the head office for Australian business was here.