QANTAS being taken over by Macquarie Bank..

[Takeshi]

There would still in all likelihood be a local head office. My interpretation of that extract from the ACT would indicate that that QF couldnt outsource the services to a foreign based business but would be ok to sell to a foreign owned business as long as the head office for Australian business was here.

So they can sell their Catering or Maintenace Gate Gourmet ( part owned by TPG which is part of this consortium, or Akmahals budget aircraft engineering services, and these 2 companies would only have to rent a small office in Australia, and call it its head office ??????
Sounds strange to me for this to happen.

 

[codash1099]

AAP News

Qantas takeover acceptances trickle in
Monday March 19, 2007, 2:05 pm

Almost one-fifth of Qantas shareholders have now accepted a private equity backed takeover offer for the airline.
The Macquarie Bank led-consortium, Airline Partners Australia, said the number of shareholders prepared to accept the $11.1 billion offer had edged up to 19.34 per cent, from 18.17 per cent.
But it's still well short of the minimum 90 per cent acceptance level needed for the takeover to proceed.
Three institutional shareholders, UBS Global Asset Management, Balanced Equity Management and Maple Brown Abbott own about 13 per cent of the airline between them.
It's believed they're holding out for a higher price, though the consortium has ruled out increasing the offer in the absence of a superior bid.
The APA offer closes on April 5.

 

[mabunji]

Michael Evans writing in today's Sydney Morning Herald ........

"Here's a thought: what if Qantas kingmakers Paul Fiani (UBS Asset Management), Andrew Sisson (Balanced Equity Management) and the boys at Maple Brown Abbott have no intention of voting down the Qantas deal?
Their refusal to date to declare their hand is widely seen as causing the flying roo's share price to slide, amid fears they intend to vote the deal down.
After all, there's no chance of them receiving a special dividend or the bid being raised. So how do they make a few extra bucks?
Well, the MacBank-backed consortium values Qantas at $5.60 per share.
And with Qantas paying a 15c dividend, APA's cash component comes down to $5.45.
But Qantas shares are trading at $5.14 amid expectations the bid will fail.
And that's created a new margin game only this fundie troika can play.
With the Qantas bid in their hands, the fundies can buy Qantas stock at $5.14 on market right now and then sell it into the bid in two weeks for $5.45. Take out a 1c commission and that's a 30c return per share in just two weeks.
(Word is this is exactly what one perpetually grumbling fundie did in the recent Rebel bid.)
We're talking the big end of town here, making trades in the tens of millions of dollars.
So for every, say, $50 million of Qantas stock they buy right now, Fiani, Sisson and Maple Brown can trouser $3 million, for a 6 per cent return, in just two weeks - 156 per cent annualised, as the sharpies say in their prospecti.
And that's better than any special dividend Qantas or APA could offer.
Would they do it?
Figures have come our way showing all three have actively traded Qantas stock in recent months.
At the end of January, Fiani's UBS held 5.63 per cent of Qantas, having sold 800,000 shares a week earlier.
Sisson held 3.9 per cent at the end of January and was also selling not long before.
Maple Brown Abbott held 2.75 per cent but also sold 1.6 million shares in late January.
Word is they may have been cashing out older, more cheaply purchased stock before potentially diving back in for more as the bid seemed to sour and the price fell."

 

[QF WP]

Qantas chairman Margaret Jackson vented her frustration at institutional shareholders yesterday who are holding out against the $11 billion, $5.45-a-share privatisation bid by Airline Partners Australia...

The pilots union has scored a minor victory in its battle against the $11.1 billion private equity takeover bid for Qantas, after Airline Partners Australia was forced to cough up more information and clarify "misleading" statements made about its member Texas Pacific Group...

Qantas has accused the Aircraft Engineers Union of using a leaked safety audit to further its own agenda...

Balanced Equity managing director Andrew Sisson has to make up his mind soon about what to do with his fund's holding of almost 4 per cent of the Qantas share register...

 

[JohnK]

"I would be devastated if it (the bid) didn't go through as this is an outstanding opportunity for shareholders," Ms Jackson said.

I would be devastated as well if I could sense that promises of $millions were disappearing in front of my eyes. Unfortunately the rest of the article is just scare tactics based on speculation on the part of Ms Jackson.

 

[QF WP]

Hey JohnK, we agree here!!! I think it shows just a hint of desperation on her own part. As you mentioned, she has (more than a passing) vested interest in the deal proceeding, with both her own shares and the "sweetner" she and the other top executives are to be paid on successful completion of the deal.

Whilst it may be in the (short-term) interest of shareholders, I'm in shares for the long term (being a good financial planner). I'm sure that others similarly see the imbedded long term value.

Hey, Ms Jackson, if you need some more capital to buy some planes, why don't you ask your shareholders. I'm good for a loan

 

[d15.in.oz]

I would be devastated as well if I could sense that promises of $millions were disappearing in front of my eyes...

She'll probably be out of a job too (along with a few others) – hard to see her remaining at her post if the shareholders don’t let the sale go through, especially when she has declared it in their best interest to sell!

 

[serfty]

It's getting tougher for APS; the last trade in QAN on the ASX was at $5.22 with offers at $5.16 and bids at $5.45.

Chart Search Result

As of 21st Match, APA now have over 16% acceptance.

 

[QF WP]

16% is a long way from the 90% hurdle, but there may be a small rush of acceptances in the final days of the entended offer period. But given the share price details posted by serfty, I'd think APA would be in the market (through a nominee company) buying at current prices - any saving would help them ($5.22 without dividend of $0.15)

Seems everybody is waiting until the final days before making up their mind, perhaps still waiting on APA to increase the deal (although they have strenuously advised they won't) or waiting on a left field higher bid (which I can't see coming).

I'm sitting on my shares at the moment.

 

[Takeshi]

I thought they were nudging 28% as of yesterday in acceptances, and they say once it hits the pshycological 30% mark, shareholders will sell in a rush.

Also now that the governement has allowed Emirates and co more flights to Oz, this will spook UBS & Co into caving into APA.

This is anybodies guess on what will happen.

This bid has so many twists and turns, now its been extended 2 more weeks by APA in the hope that world events might sway shareholders, ie Fuel, terror attack, crash ect ect.
Gee they really want Qantas bad, I would love to know the secret plan they have to make Qantas worth 4 times as much in 5 years time, I am sure Dixon would love to know this plan as well, so he could say, now why didn't I think of that, but he doesn't care with his huge bribe ahhh sorry typo, payment he will get with this bid.

 

[Takeshi]

The mystery deepens, Fianni at UBS Global has just bought 1% of Qantas stock, thats a cool 100 million, so is he just adding to the pot, or is he building up his blocking stake.

 

[mabunji]

She'll probably be out of a job too (along with a few others) – hard to see her remaining at her post if the shareholders don’t let the sale go through, especially when she has declared it in their best interest to sell!

Some years ago AMP received an approach from NAB seeking to gain control at around the $21 mark. The Chairman did not pursue the matter, and did not reveal the offer to shareholders - they were never given the option to sell their shares for a profit. AMP have never traded anywhere near $21 since the offer - The AMP Chairman was removed

The situation with Margaret Jackson is completely the opposite - she allowed an offer to be put to the company's shareholders that valued the shares at a 61% premium to Qantas' volume weighted average share price of $3.48 over the 6 months prior to the date of the announcement.

Margaret Jackson has behaved completely correctly. A number of small shareholders have pledged their shares (they wished to exit their investment at $5.60 with a substantial profit). It is mostly hedge funds and large institutions that are manouvering and seeking advantage at the moment. If the bid fails the hedge funds will dump the stock and have no vote and no role to play in determining the future of the Chairman and other board members.

There is absolutely no reason why Margaret Jackson should be pressurised into resigning.

 

[d15.in.oz]

There is absolutely no reason why Margaret Jackson should be pressurised into resigning.

I am sure QAN’s Chairperson is not under pressure regarding this…LOL.

I have no doubt, that as a savvy operator MJ understood the full ethical ramifications, which accepting the bid would have on her position at QAN – either outcome!

Methinks her answering service is already full of call back requests!

 

[d15.in.oz]

Methinks her answering service is already full of call back requests!

OOps, perhaps I should have added the adjectives “inappropriately early” to the comment –

i.e. “Methinks her answering service is already full of inappropriately early call back requests!”

 

[JohnK]

Margaret Jackson has behaved completely correctly...

There is absolutely no reason why Margaret Jackson should be pressurised into resigning.

With all due respect there are many individual shareholders who are now questioning the reasons behind the acceptance of the $5.60 bid. It may have something to do with the initial bribe of $110 million to be split between top executives and further rumours this figure is closer to the $350-$400 million mark.

So she achieved a premium of 38% percent on QAN share trading price in the 6 months previous to the offer being released. Big deal! If the takeover bid fails then she, and a few others, will have to provide some answers.

Why do APA want QAN so badly? They feel they can make a 20% profit. Now if APA can make a further 20% profit on the $5.60 offer then how much are QAN shares really worth?

My guess is that this present offer will not succeed. If APA is serious about what they are going to do then an offer around $6.00 is not unrealistic. We will wait and see what the shareholders decide! YMMV.

 

[serfty]

Qantas takeover faces collapse - Business - Business - theage.com.au

Mathew Murphy
March 23, 2007 - 2:27PM

The bid to buy Qantas is a step closer to collapse with one of the major institutional investors set to reject the $5.45-a-share offer.

Andrew Sisson's Balanced Equity Management, which owns 4 per cent of Qantas, said today it did not intend to accept the bid in the current strong market conditions..

Speculation had been rife that Balanced Equity and UBS Global Asset Management would use their combined shareholding to block the sale.

UBS would not comment when contacted by theage.com.au about what it would do with its shareholding.

Airline Partners Australia, the group behind the Qantas take over, announced today it would extend the deadline for the offer from April 3 until April 20.

APA would only say that it was considering ''a range of alternatives in light of the announcement.''

"Given the amount of media and market comment in respect to the bid for Qantas by Airline Partners Australia (APA) and the imminent closing date, we thought it appropriate to inform the company and the market of our intentions," director Andrew Sisson said.

"Since the announcement of the bid in December 2006, equity markets have appreciated significantly. ...

 

[mabunji]

They feel they can make a 20% profit. Now if APA can make a further 20% profit on the $5.60 offer then how much are QAN shares really worth?

My guess is that this present offer will not succeed. If APA is serious about what they are going to do then an offer around $6.00 is not unrealistic. We will wait and see what the shareholders decide! YMMV.

QAN shares are worth what the market is prepared to pay.

They had been trading sideways at around $3.50, plus or minus 50 cents for a considerable time.

If this bid lapses, most likely they will return to this pattern. Speculation that APA will return with a higher offer will probablly support a figure of around $4.00 - $4.50 in the interim ?.

I think it is a huge gamble. Given the complexity of the deal I do not see a rival bidder emerging. APA need to do nothing. They can call it quits, and go and look for alternative investments - QAN will lose support around the $4.00 level and drop to the old trading pattern. Alternatively they can just continue to wait - amounts to the same thing - the market loses confidence that a second bid is imminent and starts to sell.

Whilst all of this is going on Qantas will remain in limbo. Management will revert to existing practise and focus on the need to service generous dividend payments twice a year (cash will come in and be distributed to shareholders every 6 months leaving capital projects unfunded). Perhaps some of the existing management team will have enough of the uncertainty and seek new ventures ? (Yep, I know - good riddance, they sold out on our beloved icon - but putting all of the emotion aside I actually think they have done a good job in steering Qantas through the past few years (9/11, SARS et all).

 

[macca172]

My prediction, the whole deal is going pear shaped and hence will not go ahead. The final outcome........MJ and BD will be forced to resign. I will also predict that there will be another takeover bid within the next five years and this bid will be Asian based.

Whatever the outcome, this will rock Qantas back to its Winton roots and it will never the be structure as it is today. Maintenance and senior overpaid pilots who rule the flying rosters, will both be area's that will be drastically overhaul.

Sit back, relax and watch this spot!

 

[Takeshi]

UBS has just bought more Qantas stock, now bringing its total stock to about 10%, which they say will have the power to block the bid, but me thinks they are going to accept, and so will all the retail shareholders, and make a small profit on the side.
Anyway my thoughts, why would they buy more if they know they will not support the bid, its a mystery.

 

[QF WP]

News stories over the past couple of days:

If the hedge funds that now dominate Qantas' share register believed that APA didn't have a "plan B" for the takeover, Qantas' share price would have crashed and burned yesterday...

The $11.1 billion Airline Partners Australia bid for Qantas is now officially in deep trouble, after Balanced Equity Management's announcement that it won't accept the offer...

Qantas suitor Airline Partners Australia made a last-ditch attempt yesterday to pull its $A11.1 billion bid back from the brink of failure...

Uncertainty continues to hang over fate of Airline Partners Australia's $11.1 billion bid for Qantas...

I spoke to my broker yesterday who advised me that APA's daily Significant Shareholder Statement indicated they had 30.06% of QAN stock. Well short of 90% but with time still on the offer period. But with the increasing time decay will come more definitive answers from larger shareholdings