Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

After the Wednesday 9 December departure of QF19 and its return QF20 were delayed by 24 hours, the same flight today (11 December) is anticipated to depart an hour late at 1325 hours from SYD with MNL arrival at 1830, also an hour late. QF20, the 1900 hours return flight this evening will be unable to depart until at least 1935 if the initial delay holds true.

For today's delay there was no obviously late inbound flight from HNL, MNL, PVG or PVG to name a few of the A333/A332 QFi-configured points of Asian origin to delay the Friday QF19.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF449, the 1630 hours from SYD to MEL on Friday 11 December is delayed in its departure until 1920 while QF451, the 1715 hours flight on the same route is cancelled. Earlier, QF443, the 1500 hours departure was cancelled so not a 'happy day' for QF passengers given that Friday afternoon is normally very busy.

QF493, the 1915 hours southbound SYD to MEL has also got the boot.

The question that often goes unanswered on AFF is 'is most flights are loaded to 85 or 90 per cent, or in some cases full, how are 300 plus passengers suddenly found seats on the remaining flights on a route like this - albeit that QF may have 35 or so daily departures and there might be 10 or 15 remaining flights that are operating from SYD to MEL?\

QF549 from BNE to SYD, the 1725 hours departure has taken off at 1838 so will not be in SYD until about 2045, 45 minutes late. VH-VYK is the plane. there are storms to BNE's north and south: some pockets look heavy but those who are there will have a far better idea.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Thursday 10 December QF12, 2230 hours from LAX to SYD did not take off until 2344 and is off the coast, and likely to arrive about 35 minutes late on Saturday 12 with A380 VH-OQH as the aircraft.

The B744 QF16 LAX - BNE is about 35 minutes late this morning.

QF94 on Thursday departed from LAX 58 minutes behind schedule at 2313 and will arrive MEL at 1016 on Saturday 12, 71 minutes late. The returning QF93 back to LAX is expected to depart 40 minutes late at 1200 today, with the quickest QF turnaround of an A388 I have observed in recent months being just under an hour and 40 minutes, so 1200 is a good prediction. The flight is forecast to arrive LAX only 10 minutes down: on time is not impossible (of course '10 minutes' is 'on time' due to the 15 minute margin within which flights are considered punctual).

 

[Melburnian1]

On Saturday 12 December, the 1225 QF19 from SYD to MNL (unusually, A332 VH-EBL so there may have been a substitution today) departed at 1324 so arrival is forecast as 1825 instead of 1730. For the third flight in a row (Wednesday's was delayed by 24 hours, Friday's was late but not as much), QF20 will be delayed departing MNL tonight.

Of all the QFi routes, this one has one of the highest seat occupancies even though competition is now fierce from what can be the low fare Cebu Pacific and the usually higher fare Philippine Airlines. Cebu now has high occupancies on its 436 seat (densely packed) A333s while PR has upped its frequency to daily, although once the Christmas and January school holidays are finished yields may plummet, so while traveller numbers to and from Philippines are rising rapidly one cannot guess how sustainable PR's increase in flights will be over the longer term.

 

[Flyerqf]

On Saturday 12 December, the 1225 QF19 from SYD to MNL (unusually, A332 VH-EBL so there may have been a substitution today) departed at 1324 so arrival is forecast as 1825 instead of 1730. For the third flight in a row (Wednesday's was delayed by 24 hours, Friday's was late but not as much), QF20 will be delayed departing MNL tonight.

Yes it was a substitution. There were a few today.
QPB is stranded in HKG and not expected back till tomorrow morning as QF118 (24 hrs later than original schedule)
QPD was delayed overnight in Shanghai and not due back to SYD until tonight 9.30pm.

QPB or QPD were due to operate QF19 and the QF5.

As a result, QPD will operate QF3 heavily delayed after arriving in tonight and the A332 that was due to operate QF3 went to MNL instead.

QF5 will be operated by the inbound VH-EBG which would have sat on the ground in SYD overnight. However this will also be a heavily delayed service out of SYD to SIN.

 

[Melburnian1]

To add to what Flyerqf has kindly said, QF4 from HNL that is timetabled into SYD on 12 December 2015 at 2005 hours is helpfully running 25 minutes early. After arriving at 1940 tonight, QF suggests that it will depart at 2115 hours, exactly four hours late, arriving SIN as QF5 at 0230 hours on Sunday - not anyone's favourite time to arrive. This means an 0300 or later check in at a Singapore hotel despite SIN's normally extremely efficient immigration and customs procedures.

That aircraft, VH-EBG will then presumably be delayed ex SIN on its return to Oz overnight on Sunday morning.

QF3 tonight (Saturday 12 December) has been altered to depart at 2230 hours in lieu of 1945 hours, so is expected into HNL at 1110 today instead of the normal 0825 hours. 60 minutes is a very tight turnaround for an A330: probably not impossible, but almost all the ones I observe take 65 to 70 as a minimum. With the 2300 hours SYD curfew beckoning, staff (flight and cabin crew, ground staff, catering department, baggage handlers) doubtless try to be as efficient as possible but many tasks have to be completed and there comes a point where no further 'minutes can be saved.'

Given that the Saturday departure of QF4 from HNL back to SYD is timed for 1005, it will then be delayed by a probable two hours minimum (which is yet to publicly display on the QF website) which means a SYD arrival on Sunday 13 December well after 1735 - one would be surprised if it was prior to 1845.

Happy times indeed, and as we all know, bad luck comes in threes. It is extremely difficult for QFi to cancel flights at this time of year as many (like their competitors' offerings) will be full or loaded to 96 per cent and 'effectively full.'

Just out of interest, at this time of year, does QFi routinely overbook Y in particular because it knows that five per cent of booked passengers are no shows?

Flyerqf, do you agree that operations of QFi's A330s should be pretty much back to normal tomorrow despite these multiple changes today? I cannot see any A333/A332 international flights (outbound ex SYD) showing as 'delayed' at present.

 

[Melburnian1]

The delayed QF5 on 12 December pushed back from SYD at 2121 and should arrive in SIN at 0218 with the delayed flight now confirmed coming back to Oz as QF6, which instead of departing at 2350 hours this evening should leave at 0340 on Sunday 13 December for a 1420 hours arrival instead of 1055.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF129 from SYD to PVG (A333 VH-QPB), the 1050 hours flight took off at 1247 and is therefore due to arrive at 2009 tonight rather than 1830. QF130 tonight will be about an hour late at a minimum departing from the Chinese commercial capital.

Today's QF11 (A388 VH-OQF), the 1130 SYD to LAX took off at 1237 with arrival forecast at 0721, 56 minutes late. It is virtually operating with similarly late VA1.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF35 (VH-QPE) is meant to depart MEL at 1220 but on Sunday 13 December 2015, takeoff was not until 1421 hours, meaning arrival in SIN will be at about 1905 instead of 1720.

QF440, the 1430 MEL to SYD did not take off until 1537 and hence will be a forecast 49 minutes late arriving at 1644 with VH-XZI (B738) operating the flight. QF867, the 1145 HTI - SYD is about to arrive in SYD almost 50 minutes late with VH-XZA operating it.

 

[Melburnian1]

The 1125 SYD to HKG on 13 December did not take off until 1209 and hence is running at least a few minutes late.

It is A388 VH-OQE, no doubt to cope with the holiday crowds. My Qantas flight status information is not working well at present but it appears that QF63 today from SYD to JNB (normally a B744) is not scheduled today so coupled with other changes does that partly explain how the airline finds an A388 to do the busy pre-Christmas HKG run?

Normally QF needs 11 x A388s (although QF7 SYD to DFW does not operate on Tuesdays, so on that day it may only require 10 A388s) so perhaps it has scheduled the major maintenance so that none is required across the fleet of 12 A388s at present.

Has it withdrawn an A388 from any other flight(s) at present? (Next year, QF7 and its return from DFW to SYD, QF8 becomes a B744 one day of the week if I recall).

 

[Himeno]

It is A388 VH-OQE, no doubt to cope with the holiday crowds. My Qantas flight status information is not working well at present but it appears that QF63 today from SYD to JNB (normally a B744) is not scheduled today so coupled with other changes does that partly explain how the airline finds an A388 to do the busy pre-Christmas HKG run?

Normally QF needs 11 x A388s (although QF7 SYD to DFW does not operate on Tuesdays, so on that day it may only require 10 A388s) so perhaps it has scheduled the major maintenance so that none is required across the fleet of 12 A388s at present.

They are dropping one of the weekly JNB flights (along with reducing the SYD/MEL-LAX 747 flights) to use the aircraft for SFO.
Having no planned heavy maintenance on the 380 fleet is how they get the frame for the seasonal HKG 380 flights.
The current Tuesdays off on DFW appears to be due to the slightly longer flight time on DFW compared to LAX + ground time at each end knocking the aircraft needed into just over 2 for daily flights. They need 1 day/week off in order for the schedule not to slip. There doesn't appear to be an "extra" A380 sitting around SYD on Tuesdays, thus that frame must be doing something else other then a 7th weekly to DFW.
Normally there are 5 frames used for AU-LHR and 1 in heavy maintenance leaving 6 for LAX/DFW. With the current timings on the A380 flights, it appears that they'd need 6.1 frames to make all 3 US A380 routes daily.

Has it withdrawn an A388 from any other flight(s) at present? (Next year, QF7 and its return from DFW to SYD, QF8 becomes a B744 one day of the week if I recall).

They are making QF11/12 a 747 on Tuesdays in order to make QF7/8 daily A380 next year (again pointing to needing just over 6 frames for current US A380 flight times)

 

[Melburnian1]

Thank you Himeno. Excellent explanation.

QF435, the 1300 hours from SYD to MEL had a major problem while taxiing today (Sunday 13 December) and was forced to return with a tow motor conveying it back to the gate:

Nocookies | The Australian

(There is also a reference to a JQ flight having problems on Friday 11 DEcember from ADL to DPS and turning back: see the AFF 'JQ delays/ cancellations' thread for that).

In the readers' comments, there was criticism of a headline that referred to an 'aborted take off' but the headline is now benign so perhaps the subeditor altered it. The readers point out that no 'aborted take off' occurred because the hydraulic system problem was identified while the plane was taxiing, not when it was on a takeoff roll, so it did not have to 'abort.'

By the way, Steve Creedy who had been writing 'The Australian' aviation supplement on Fridays and who contributed many other aviation articles announced in his 'briefs' beside the main articles in Friday 11 December's paper that he was leaving to join...AirServices Australia. 'Captured' by the bureaucracy at last!

The female journalist who wrote today's article has also written quite a few previous aviation pieces. I'm not defending or criticising what she wrote, or what may have been the original (presumably now altered) headline: I am merely stating what I have read in the past.

Some AFFers (one I can think of especially) are dismissive of reporters from any media (not just print) who file stories about aviation, but in their defence (and I'm referring here to RPT stories about QF, VA and so on), they have to write for a general audience who will not have the knowledge that some AFFers who work in aviation or who fly for a hobby have.

Given 'The Australian's' reputation as Australia's best newspaper, it will be interesting to see if they can find an experienced aviation reporter who as well as dealing with aviation regular public transport quite often has to write articles about military and space aviation. Not all of us on AFF have an interest in the latter and even newspaper articles about the subject, fascinating to those interested as they no doubt are, can become highly technical with the odd bit of jargon creeping in.

Post 1006 above predicted that the delayed QF4 arrival (13 December) would not pull in until after 1845 hours - it looks like being on blocks at about 2040, three hours and five minutes late.

 

[Kefci2000]

Re: Jetstar Delays/Cancellations

Sitting on QF466 for th second week in a row and the second week delayed at least 20 mins

last week was almost an hour

 

[Melburnian1]

Reintroduced flight QF76 from YVR to SYD took off at 2055 on Saturday 12 December, 55 minutes after its timetabled departure and on Monday 14 is coming into SYD where it should arrive at about 0650, 35 minutes late: VH-OJU, a B744 is the plane.

A330 VH-EBD appears to be on a SYD - MEL transfer (QF6111) as it took off on Monday 14 at 0613.

 

[Hvr]

<snip>

Given 'The Australian's' reputation as Australia's best newspaper, <snip>

A big call for a paper that is essentially the Herald-Sun/Daily Telegraph with words of two and occasionally three syllables.

 

[OATEK]

A big call for a paper that is essentially the Herald-Sun/Daily Telegraph with words of two and occasionally three syllables.

Sounds like the AFR with so many SMH articles lifted and shifted. If there is a "good" mainstream newspaper in Australia, it has so far evaded me.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF775, the 0700 A332 VH-EBQ flight from MEL on Monday 14 December did not take off until 0850 hours. It is expected to be 91 minutes late arriving in PER at 0946 WST according to the QF website, although FR24 claims an '0914' arrival. I suspect QF is more accurate, which again shows that at times FR24 and similar third party sites lack accuracy. QF772, the 1005 back to MEL is predicted to be delayed in departing until 1030.

QF413 is delayed in departing SYD from 0745 to 0855 on its trip to MEL, with arrival predicted at 1030 in lieu of 0920. It may creep in earlier as flights can sometimes pick up time on the 95 minute gate to gate southbound schedule. QF421, the 0930 hours southbound is cancelled.

 

[eminere]

In the readers' comments, there was criticism of a headline that referred to an 'aborted take off' but the headline is now benign so perhaps the subeditor altered it. The readers point out that no 'aborted take off' occurred because the hydraulic system problem was identified while the plane was taxiing, not when it was on a takeoff roll, so it did not have to 'abort.'

The comments are gold.

 

[Melburnian1]

eminere, when I again looked, there was a headline on Nocookies | The Australian home page about 'aborted take off' (although that was not the headline to the article) so my apologies for incorrectly suggesting that the misleading, sensationalist headline had been removed.

Monday 14 December's QF129 is delayed in departing from SYD for 80 minutes until a projected 1210. Anyone catching QF130 tonight can be assured that it will depart late. QF81, the 1115 from SYD to SIN is delayed by 45 minutes.

Sunday 13 December's QF2 has been delayed from 2035 hours in departing from LHR to 0015 on Monday morning, which is about now. QF predicts DXB arrival as 1110 but has yet to update the SYD Tuesday 15 December arrival time. The best that could be hoped for is around 0900 - 0930, assuming that the DXB stop duration can be reduced from the allowed two hours. The Saturday 11 December 2325 hours QF9 had departed MEL 113 minutes late with it eventually pulling into Europe's financial capital at 1424, 94 minutes late, so a possible cause is that the bird required some extra love and attention in LHR.

The SYD and MEL - LHR and return flights (QF1/9/2/10) have been running quite well during the past few weeks but that has not been the case for all of 2015, so let's hope that this is not the start of those 'rolling delays' that some AFFers so tellingly refer to. QF presently is using its A380s intensively (although there are long periods on the ground in LAX/ DFW and soon SFO, and a shorter period in LHR) so it would not be optimal if one became defective during the next few weeks, one of the busiest annual trading periods for airlines serving Oz.

UPDATE: The Monday QF129 was delayed for more than 80 minutes as it departed at 1258, 128 minutes late. It is expected in PVG at 2015, 105 late and will then return as a late QF130, departing at a forecast 2130 instead of 2005 for a Tuesday 15 December arrival an hour late at 1045.

QF81 departed SYD at 1223 and has been changed to arrive in SIN at 1745, 75 minutes behind time.

The Sunday night QF2 was off blocks at 0041 at LHR on Monday, four hours and six minutes late and is now slated to arrive in DXB at 1125, gaining 16 minutes on that sector and reducing the sojourn in the Middle Eastern city, allowing for a 1300 hours departure - three hours and 25 minutes late - and an 0940 hours Tuesday 16 December SYD arrival, three hours and 10 minutes late. This aircraft may then form QF11 to LAX, the 1130 departure so the staff will be working hard given almost minimum around time.

 

[Himeno]

The Sunday night QF2 was off blocks at 0041 at LHR on Monday

How does that work with the LHR curfew?