Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

MEL_Traveller, thank you: anything is possible since we had fog at Melbourne Airport (but in hardly any other suburbs as far as I could see) on one morning in December 2015.

QF63 departed SYD for JNB at 1230 on Christmas Day, 55 minutes behind time but is forecast to only be 26 minutes late arriving at 1701. As at 1239 today, it is only taxiing in SYD so the latter time may be adjusted a little to show a later arrival once ACARS knows what time takeoff occurred.

 

[defurax]

I'm in the SYD F lounge and QF keep pushing back the departure of QF27 to SCL with a now estimated departure time of 17:00. Apparently the engineers need more time to fix a problem.

 

[Pushka]

Isnt that pushing back?

 

[defurax]

Isnt that pushing back?

Must have had too much of that Shiraz 2007 from the decanter...

 

[Melburnian1]

QF27 took off at 1725 this afternoon (Christmas Day). VH-OEE is the B744 with SCL arrival expected more than four hours behind time at 1548, inevitably delaying the return QF28 back to SYD.

The Christmas Eve LAX - BNE QF16 departed at 0105 on Christmas Day, an hour and 45 minutes behind time with Saturday 26 December arrival expected at 0810, 55 minutes late.

 

[Melburnian1]

As the earlier flight from MEL forming it was late, QF680, the 1035 ADL - MEL (B738 VH-VXD) is badly late, not taking off until 1216 and now arriving at around 1345, 85 minutes late. This aircraft then forms the 1500 hours (QF1273) to ADL at 1500 which is a long turnaround for one of the busiest days in the year for Australian domestic flights, Boxing Day.

The 1220 MEL to SIN, QF35 has been delayed by an hour - arrival in SIN is expected to be 45 minutes late.

The Christmas Day QF28 ex SCL departed at 1808, four and a half hours late with arrival shortly in SYD at about 2125 hours, three and a half hours late. It looks like this aircraft (B744 VH-OEE) will overnight in SYD: its delay has not led to any other departures being late this evening, although as AFF member Flyerqf has pointed out at times, this can lead to another B744 having to (say) do the redeye SYD to HND QF25 flight when QF's original plan was for that aircraft to stay the night in SYD.

 

[Flyerqf]

QF17 is cancelled today.

 

[Comoman]

QF17 is cancelled today.

That must cause a lot of annoyed people today!

 

[Flyerqf]

That must cause a lot of annoyed people today!

They cancelled it yesterday, I'm guessing due to lack of demand. They probably chose to move pax over to QF11 or new AA flight, or one of the two flights from MEL or BNE flight.

There is also a SFO flight today, so lots of capacity to US.

 

[Melburnian1]

Flyerqf, this sounds reasonable, because on a net basis isn't QF somewhat reducing the number of available weekly seats to and from the USA by April 2016?

The article linked below does not mention the QF capacity reductions between MEL and LAX as from memory the B744 'supplementary to the A388' flights are ending:

Qantas turns to Asia amid stiff competition on trans-Pacific routes

Logic tells us with the A$ having dropped more against the US$ than the Euro or most Asian currencies, leisure travel by Australians would be starting to markedly decline to the USA, given the usual 'lag' in travel intentions ('yes' or 'no') - booking - travel. Given that QF may not command quite the percentage share of USA-origin travel on the route that it does of Australian-originating travel, I have difficulty in seeing how any rise in tourism to Australia from US residents would fully compensate for the probably lower number of Australians holidaying to (or via) the USA.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Logic tells us with the A$ having dropped more against the US$ than the Euro or most Asian currencies, leisure travel by Australians would be starting to markedly decline to the USA, given the usual 'lag' in travel intentions ('yes' or 'no') - booking - travel.

Not sure where I saw this... the news last night? They said Australian bookings to Hawaii had increased by 9% over the last year, but total Aussie spending (in Hawaii) had reduced by 3%. Would be interesting to see how that maps over to mainland USA - fares to there are pretty cheap there atm.

 

[Flyerqf]

Flyerqf, this sounds reasonable, because on a net basis isn't QF somewhat reducing the number of available weekly seats to and from the USA by April 2016?

When combined with the new AA SYDLAX codeshare, capacity is increasing to mainland USA.

However, LAX is reduced with SFO and DFW increasing.

QF SYD 2nd daily flight to LAX will be axed completely and the MEL 2nd flight drops from 3 per week to 2.

 

[Melburnian1]

Flyerqf, I was referring to QF 'own metal' operations to USA declining in seat numbers.

With a codeshare, the 'own metal' operator, in this case AA, bears more of the risk as to whether its flight is financially successful.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Monday 28 December 2015, QF601, the 0500 BNE to MEL 'early bird' did not depart until 0613 and should arrive at 0927, 67 minutes late.

The Saturday evening QF8 ex DFW did not arrive SYD until 0803 on Monday 28 December, an hour and 58 minutes late despite departing only 40 minutes late at 2050 hours. This flight is most often punctual, certainly more so than the flights ex LAX. It is too early to assess the recently resumed SFO - SYD flights.

QF2420 from NTL to BNE is expected to depart at 0901 AEDT, 75 minutes behind time with arrival at 0923 AEST, 63 minutes late.

QF814, the 0900 hours MEL - CBR is expected to be delayed by an even hour, as it is being formed by the late QF601 ex BNE (B738 VH-XZG).

 

[jb747]

DFW

kdfw 272112z 2721/2824 35018g28kt 4sm -ra br ovc012 tempo 2721/2723 2sm +tsra br ovc008cb fm280300 34020kt p6sm vcsh ovc010 fm280700 32020g30kt p6sm -rasn ovc012 fm281000 31020g30kt p6sm ovc015

 

[Melburnian1]

QF2282 (Q400 VH-QOX) is the 1040 LST - MEL that on Monday 28 December took off at 1139. Arrival should be about half an hour late at 1215.

 

[Flyerqf]

Flyerqf, I was referring to QF 'own metal' operations to USA declining in seat numbers.

With a codeshare, the 'own metal' operator, in this case AA, bears more of the risk as to whether its flight is financially successful.

The drop in 'own metal operation' is very minor.

Essentially SYD- SFO 6pw and the one extra DFW flight replaces the daily QF17. MEL to LAX drops from 10pw to 9pw.

So Qantas own metal is down 1 flight overall per week to mainland USA but AA offering a daily flight to LAX more than makes up for it.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Sunday 27 December QF12 from LAX (A388 VH-OQE) departed 44 minutes late at 2314. Tuesday 29 arrival in SYD is forecast as 0940 hours, 70 minutes late. B744-operated QF18 from LAX to SYD has been cancelled, as QF17 on Sunday ex SYD had also been.

The Sunday evening LAX to BNE B744, QF16, departed 46 minutes late at 0006 on Monday morning and should be in the Sunshine State capital 42 minutes late on Tuesday 28 December at 0757, while QF94 (LAX - MEL) is an expected 31 minutes late.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Sunday evening 27 December 2015 LHR to DXB and SYD QF2 (A388 VH-OQD) departed two minutes late at 2037 hours but diverted to KWI, where it arrived on Monday 28 at 0529, departing at 0706. The Accuweather site indicates that the weather is normal in DXB today but yesterday there were many late departures around the 1000 mark. On this occasion however Qantas Source states that the KWI diversion was due to a medical emergency on board.

Happy to be corrected but not only is KWI closer to LHR than DXB in kilometres (or nautical miles) but a side benefit may be often lower or no holding patterns. Presumably however when a tech crew member notifies ATC that he has a medical case on board then the flight is given absolute priority to the field.

The cost of these medical diversions must run at many dollars per seat but no doubt airlines budget for a few of these each month - particularly airlines with long flight stages such as Europe to southeast Asia, Oz to the USA, South America or Africa or the Middle East to Oz. It would be interesting to know what percentage were due to a 'pre existing medical condition' - a favourite term of insurers - versus how many were a sudden 'medical event' for which the patient had no diagnosed precondition or obvious likelihood to incur. Like many, I know someone who this year had a 'heart attack' at home yet appeared healthy, fit and not overweight. Result: a quadruple bypass and more than two weeks in hospital. One wonders what the surviveability rate for that would be should it occur on an aircraft operating a long haul flight. Apparently not all regular public transport aircraft carry a defibrillator (one might have presumed it standard these days) as a 47 year old British woman died on board a RyanAir flight in 2015 when she had a heart attack in an onboard toilet with a consultant breast surgeon on the flight asking unsuccessfully for a defibrillator.

(This then led to Ryanair's CEO Mr O'Leary announcing that 400 such units would be purchased and placed on board aircraft.)

Will there ever come a day when airlines (in a competitive world) ask passengers about pre existing medical conditions AND their weight (a Tongan airline already does the latter) and in some cases as a result decline carriage? The former may hardly be relevant for flights of an hour or two but of more interest if one is flying on eight hour or more routes. It would be intrusive and controversial; presumably at present airlines know that they'd lose business if it was done. Additionally, airlines may perceive any risk is manageable passenger wise and cost wise at present given their access to years of history on frequency of medical diversions.

DXB arrival on Monday 28 was at 0946, two hours and 11 minutes late; the flight then departed at 1157, two hours and 22 minutes behind time with it being expected to be on blocks at SYD on Tuesday 29 December at 0845 instead of the timetabled 0630, not too bad in the circumstances.

It looks to be then forming QF11 at 1130 to LAX on Tuesday 29 so it should have sufficient time to achieve that. The evening B744-operated QF17 (1825 hours to LAX) is again cancelled ex SYD tomorrow night.

 

[Flyerqf]

Looks like there is an issue with 747 VH-OJM as its been out of service for 6 days resulting in 2 cancellations of QF17/18 and a downgrade of today's QF127 to an A330-300.