Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

I thought they were about due to have another study, so that they could put it off again. I predicted a long, long, time ago that I'd never land on it. Now my prediction is that it won't happen in my lifetime.

The official website: westernsydneyairport@gov@au - suggests that 'operations COULD commence' in the 'mid 2020s.'

When one hears politicians saying 'could' instead of 'will' it is reason to be extra cynical or cautious about believing them. Even when they say 'will...' they can be incorrect despite very conservative funding and construction timeframes. Your prediction looks pretty safe!

While it has been rejected at this stage, high speed rail along Australia's lower east coast would be a far preferable alternative, providing that any consortium could capture 'value' in land, a sticking point with one of the two previous proposals if I recall.

Thank you Flyerqf for the usual excellent addition to my bare bones little report.

QF23 on Saturday 5 March, the 0955 hours SYD - BKK, did not depart until 1100. Arrival should be 45 minutes late at 1620.

 

[jb747]

While it has been rejected at this stage, high speed rail along Australia's lower east coast would be a far preferable alternative, providing that any consortium could capture 'value' in land, a sticking point with one of the two previous proposals if I recall.

Ah, the concept of TAXING someone on the unrealised, and possibly mythical, increase in the value of their home, because a train system that they may never use runs somewhere near it.

 

[Melburnian1]

The heavily delayed QF4 (HNL - SYD) departed at 2356 hours on Friday 4 and should be in SYD at 0715 tomorrow, Sunday 6 March, 11 hours and 10 minutes late.

The following QF4 (the scheduled Saturday 5 March 1005 hours departure) is forecast to depart at 1205 for a predicted 1925 hours Sunday evening 6 March arrival, an hour and 50 minutes late. A logical reason for this delay may be to ensure that the crew have the minimum required rest ex the delayed QF3 - see above for its details.

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

We do get taxed a lot in relation to flying than fast rail.
Security services tax or levy.
Airport owner tax or levy. Lease fees to Fed Govt.
Federal passenger movement charge or tax or levy.
Taxi companies too make money.
Then the state govt makes money from taxi licence issuances.
Govts and private businesses at airports do make a lot of money from flights.
Don't worry Badgerys Creek will happen.
They will keep KSA too, too $$$ to get rid of, maybe freight will take over.

 

[JessicaTam]

Train discussion here please:

http://www.australianfrequentflyer....cussion/general-train-discussion-74260-3.html

 

[Melburnian1]

The Sunday 6 March 2016 QF81 from SYD to SIN is delayed from its usual 1115 hours departure to a forecast 1200. Arrival is suggested as 40 minutes late at 1710.

QF11, the 1130 SYD to LAX A388-operated flight has been changed to depart at 1230. Arrival is only expected half an hour late at 0655 same day.

QF127 (SYD - HKG) departed at 1215, 40 minutes late. Arrival should be only 20 minutes behind at 1805 hours this evening.

UPDATE: The 1200 (high noon) QF2258 from BNE to LDH is shown as delayed in departure until 1330 but that was more than 45 minutes ago.

The expected delay to QF11 has become far more serious - to a 1500 hours departure, three and a half hours late. QF suggests that arrival will be at 0915 hours, two hours and 50 minutes late. If my maths is correct, without switching crews the plane would need to be in the air by about 1630 this afternoon to avoid a further delay due to having to find a second crew. I am basing that on what one of AFF's esteemed contributors said was maximum (extended) duty (if I recall, for pilots not cabin crew) 'with permission' of 20 hours including signing on an hour before 1130 in this case and signing off half an hour after landing. If my calculation is incorrect, please advise.

Feedback from AFFers on this flight as to the reason(s) for the longer delay would be great. At least those 'in the lounge' would have been able to have a luncheon 'on the ground' with a wider choice of taste sensations than possible at 11000 metres. There's often a silver lining to most things in life.

How many hours' unpunctuality on the forward journey is it before a QF departure back to Oz is then delayed because (say) the cabin crew's one night in LAX has been insufficient in duration for the mandated, minimum number of 'rest hours?'

 

[Melburnian1]

Oh dear. It is sometimes not a good sign when airlines keep putting back a departure time (a confusing way to state it, but what I mean is 'make it a longer delay.')

When airlines do this there is presumably some optimism that whatever problem has occurred - electrical or mechanical, or a staff member going off sick at short notice to name three possibilities - can be 'fixed' within allowable duty hours.

Unfortunately the Sunday 6 March 2016 QF11 from SYD to LAX has just been cancelled after the earlier delays referred to above. QF17, the 1825 hours B744 from SYD to LAX is operating this evening. Perhaps some passengers from QF11 will be rebooked on the B744 should there be spare seats.

QF7 has not long pushed back in SYD at 1630 (an hour and 25 minutes late) for DFW which begs the question: were some passengers ex the cancelled QF11 whose final destination is JFK or perhaps Chicago put on QF7, thus causing a delay while luggage was redirected, boarding passes issued and so on?

The 2230 hours departure also on Sunday 6 March of QF12 from LAX back to SYD has also been cancelled. AA73, the 2150 hours (preceding) flight is the only other QF group one that is nonstop to SYD on a Sunday ex LAX.

Information from passengers as to which hotels they are allocated, how the arrangements are or were handled and any other 'freebies' such as taxi or meal vouchers would be terrific.

This cancellation of one flight (QF11) that leads to another (QF12) similarly not operating must cost an airline operating long haul flights in the hundreds of thousands of dollars: accommodation if provided, taxi vouchers or meals, wasted catering, crew costs from sitting around, extra hotel room nights for crews at the other end (in this case LAX), tech crew lower availability due to having been asked to operate a flight that in the end did not run and (if relevant) any necessary repairs should the aircraft not have operated due to it having failed.

Airlines can afford these costs in the low fuel price environment that is 2015-16 but the bean counters nonetheless must not welcome such cancellations.

Think of all the reorganisation not just through the well programmed software but also occurring manually with staff having to probably ring hotels at both ends of the flight, establish if rooms are available, organise buses if the hotels are not within walking distance from the terminal (few are), reorder catering and redo staff rosters.

Yes it has all happened before but every cancellation of a long haul flight must at least slightly differ from its predecessors.

 

[Quickstatus]

I wonder what the financial year cost as a % would be due to the aggregated delays and cancellations?. Must not be insignificant for a full service airline with a high legacy cost structure

It would be very interesting to see the top 10 causes of an airplane going tech.

Is it still a valid assumption that Qantas has a lower threshold of cancelling a flight for technical reasons than other airlines?

While it has been rejected at this stage, high speed rail along Australia's lower east coast would be a far preferable alternative, providing that any consortium could capture 'value' in land, a sticking point with one of the two previous proposals if I recall.

The problem I see with high speed rail is that it only works if there are no intermediate stops. Guaranteed that when politicians have their hands in it every hamlet along the route will want the high speed train to stop at their town negating its top speed and lengthens its traveltime.

 

[Melburnian1]

Quickstatus, JessicaTam as moderator has asked that we discuss trains elsewhere (see above.)

QF is a company that had $13.67 billion passenger revenue in 2014/15. The cost would be 'significant' to you and I, and annoying to the beancounters. Whether airlines have a 'budget' for delays and a separate one for cancellations is never made public to my knowledge, but they have operating key performance indicators such as punctuality, maintenance and repairs expenditure and cancellation rates that would form part of the Board's and CEO's assumptions on which to base profit (or loss) predictions that at times are released to the sharemarket. Analysts are also vitally interested in these profit or loss announcements with the better ones seeking clarification from public companies such as QF.

The variance in cancellations and delays from week to week and month to month must be huge.

From various previous postings by esteemed AFFers in this and other threads, problems with fuel pumps are one cause of 'tech' delays ('failures') mentioned more than once.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Sunday 6 March 1825 hours QF17 (B744) from SYD to LAX is delayed in departing from the scheduled 1825 hours to a predicted 1940.

Whether this has anything to do with the earlier cancellation of the A388-operated QF11 would be interesting to ascertain.

QF544 (1805 hours SYD - BNE, B738 VH-XZG) took off at 1856 with arrival expected at about 1920, 45 minutes late.

UPDATE: QF17 departed at 2004. The QF website continues to display the LAX arrival as 'on time' at 1305, which cannot be correct.

 

[JohnK]

QF544 (1805 hours SYD - BNE, B738 VH-XZG) took off at 1856 with arrival expected at about 1920, 45 minutes late.

That would be me. Long time at the gate and then long taxi. Passenger with checked luggage decided not to board. Hope they are ok. Luggage took long time to find.

And the side effect is QF557 will also be late.

 

[Quickstatus]

Melburnian1

Can you give an opinion on the ontime performance of QF35 MEL-SIN

Flightaware suggests its quite punctual with only occasional hiccups.

 

[Melburnian1]

Flightstatus, FlightStats - Global Flight Tracker, Status Tracking and Airport Information can be quickly accessed to give a picture of in this case QF35's last 61 'excursions.'

Of these, 80 per cent were 'on time' - that is, 15 minutes or less late at the arrival gate in SIN.

Nine flights out of 61 were either 'very late' or 'excessive(ly)' late. It has an average (which I take to be a 'median') delay of 28 minutes and an overall rating (which partly includes a comparison with other flights such as those operated by Singapore Airlines, Scoot and Jetstar) of 2.7 out of 5.

So if one was to give an objective summary the conclusion might be 'a flight with a good chance of being on time, but one in every five flights has either a minor or fairly major problem in arriving punctually.' As an aside, there were no 'outliers' in the researched 61 flights such as a 200 minute delay. This is a good sign although to some extent every flight is a new ball game.

Its rating compares to what FlightStats says is an almost perfect 4.9 out of 5 for SQ238, the 1125 MEL to SIN operated by the major competitor (and legacy airline like QF) on this route.

The 'average delay' for this daytime SQ flight is only nine minutes for its last 61 'outings' with 93 per cent, or 57 of the last 61 flights, 15 minutes or late less arriving.

Certainly QF35 is far from QFi's worst performer, but nor is it almost something that one can set a watch by such as the BNE - NRT or SYD - HND QF flights. It is outshone by SQ238 so if I had a choice I would choose SQ.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF1948, the Sunday 6 March from ASP to CNS is badly late. It is meant to depart at 1725 but took off this evening at 1954. Arrival time should be at about 2218, two hours and 13 minutes late. Aircraft is B717 VH-NXQ.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Monday 7 March QF495, the 0615 from SYD to MEL and QF1511, the first of the morning at 0625 from SYD to CBR have been cancelled, as has the 0715 SYD - MEL, QF407.

QF410 (0715 hours MEL to SYD northbound) is also cancelled as is the 0845 hours departure, QF488. QF2281 at 0905 (MEL to LST) has also got the axe today.

QF2402 (0700 BNE to EMD, a route that may have declining patronage due to the lower levels of mining-related activity) is expected to depart shortly at 0745 AEST.

The 1000 SYD - HBA, QF1509 is forecast to depart at 1040. QF1568, the 1105 SYD - OOL has been cancelled but strangely there is an identically timed QF868 that is operating. Quite unusual to have two QF flights at identical times so perhaps this was some sort of software error?

 

[ausfox]

Starting QF12 from JFK and have been told QF 12 LAX SYD 06/03 is to be cancelled supposedly for technical reasons. Passengers being rerouted via Brisbane or Melbourne. Is this for loading reasons or scheduling rather than unservicability?

 

[Quickstatus]

Starting QF12 from JFK and have been told QF 12 LAX SYD 06/03 is to be cancelled supposedly for technical reasons. Passengers being rerouted via Brisbane or Melbourne. Is this for loading reasons or scheduling rather than unservicability?

Melburnian1 has addressed this upthread #2387. This is due to the cancellation of the 06/03 QF11 which was to form the return QF12 on 06/03 from LAX.

The cause is unknown at the moment.

 

[Melburnian1]

ausfox, if you look at posts above such as number 2386 I recorded the cancellation on Sunday 6 March of QF11, which has led to QF12 ex LAX also getting the gong.

No one has yet said 'why.' However QF initially did not expect QF11 to be cancelled as its departure time was initially amended from 1130 (the schedule) to 1230 and then to 1500 hours. Whether the problem also meant that the crew ran out of hours is also unknown.

It always surprises me in these situations that we do not have more complaints as if QF11 was say 80 per cent booked (and it might often be above that percentage) it might be hard to find sufficient spare seats on alternative flights such as QF94 to MEL to ensure that everyone travelled ex LAX on the same night that they had been booked. However passengers who lack 'status' are probably less likely to read websites such as AFF, yet they are the ones who are most likely (to use that USA expression) to be 'bumped.'

ausfox, perhaps you could ask the staff 'what was wrong with QF11 that it was cancelled ex SYD on Sunday?' They may not exactly know but it could be worth a try.

B738 VH-XZO on QF516 (1005 hours SYD - BNE) departed at 1039, took off at 1100 and arrived BNE at 1110, 35 minutes late on Monday 7 March. The QF website asserts that the returning QF525 from BNE down to SYD will depart at 1135, only 10 minutes late but this would require a 25 minute turnaround that rarely or never is achieved.

UPDATE: QF1536, the 1735 MEL to CBR has been cancelled, as was QF1560, the 1345 hours ADL to SYD.

QF525 ended up departing at 1145 from BNE - a 35 minute turnaround (and 20 minutes late), not the '25' QF claimed above would occur, arriving SYD 10 minutes late at 1410.

 

[ausfox]

My miss on the earlier posts. I don't normally read this thread as I have blind faith in services being provided. The only word from the cabin crew and ground staff is that the earlier aircraft was cancelled. It has caused a bit of grief getting 3 flights into 2. Seems a few from JFK have been bumped.

 

[Melburnian1]

Again demonstrating how tight turnarounds and fairly tight schedules can more or less guarantee that a plane runs late all day, QF1503, the 7 March 1135 MEL - HBA departed at 1158, arriving at 1314, 24 minutes late.

QF1504, the 1330 ex HBA did not however depart until 1358 - 28 minutes behind time - arriving MEL at 1521, 36 minutes late because at around 1500 hours on weekdays it is a very busy time in MEL.

QF1505 (B717 VH-YQS, one of the ex-Victorville desert storage 'birds' as highlighted by AFF member Quickstatus) also departed 36 late at 1601 for the flight down to HBA where arrival is suggested at 1710, half an hour behind. QF1506 is then forecast to depart 25 minutes late at 1745 so it will be interesting to see if it can achieve this. Often in the past these B717 HBA predictions have proven a tad optimistic.

Of the capital city air routes linking states (forgetting about the two territories), QF's unpunctuality between MEL and HBA would have to be its standout worst performer.

UPDATE: QF1506 did not depart HBA until 1754 (34 minutes late) after QF1505 arrived at 1708, so the turnaround took 46 minutes, perhaps not helped by the 1700 hours time band being busy for JQ and QF at HBA.

QF1506 subsequently arrived in MEL at 1916, 41 minutes late. To finish off the day, southbound QF1507 departed from MEL at 2010, 45 minutes behind time with HBA arrival expected at 2120, 40 late.

So this was another case of delays 'building' somewhat during the afternoon and evening. The key takeout for passengers is that the later in the day one's QF B717 flight is on the HBA - MEL - HBA route, the greater the chance of an increased delay.

In the past, AFF members milehighclub and ozbeachbabe have provided us with some useful information about this QF route so I hope that eventually they see this and make their usual informed and interesting comments.