Your arrival and departure tracking from Melbourne (for all airlines) will be very busy over the next few weeks. Runway works involving the replacement of the approach and touchdown zone lights on 16 are happening, and the touchdown threshold is being moved about 400 metres. So, no lights, ILS or PAPI.
Expect more delays and diversions if the winds are southerly, especially if there's any low cloud.
Thank you jb747 for the excellent advance notice. Yesterday (Friday 11 March) had poor punctuality in MEL for JQ (in particular), QF and TT and to a lesser extent VA. While it was probably unrelated to the forthcoming works, perhaps it was a minor taste of things to come. It is unsurprising that the airport has failed to publicise these works as it tends to not want to draw attention to possible delays.
The comment about 'diversions' is particularly worrying as these are a huge inconvenience to passengers (and staff) and a high cost item for airlines. A saving grace may be that low cloud does not occur every day, but there have been predictions that Melbourne will have above average rainfall in April and May.
While we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, for all four major domestic airlines late running to and from MEL tends to severely affect the national airline route network given that MEL is now not handling many fewer passengers than SYD each month. Airlines such as JQ may try to keep some aircraft solely for a day on SYD - MEL - SYD rotations but aircraft bays are finite so other flights can still be hit as a result.
I try to only record late running above half an hour late even though the official definition is 'more than 15 minutes late.' There are quite a few flights nationwide that are on blocks more than 15 but less than half an hour late.
I have commenced a new general 'warning' thread as this is indeed about all airlines, not just QF. Perhaps some of our esteemed pilot or other 'airmen' contributors may be kind enough in time to post the exact dates and times when these works are predicted to commence and end:
http://www.australianfrequentflyer....ons/probable-mel-delays-due-runway-74633.html
This is what the University of Melbourne has to say about winds in Melbourne. In laymans' terms it might be summarised as 'highly variable, but when these runway works are on, it may be best to travel on morning flights to minimise the chance of delays or diversions':
The wind varies from day to night and from season to season. Wind speed is usually lowest during the night and early hours of the morning before sunrise. It increases during the day as heating of the earth's surface induces turbulence in the wind stream. Wind also varies, with very localised effects of some weather phenomena such as showers and thunderstorms. Examples of the diurnal variation are the sea breeze, which brings relief on many hot days, and the valley or katabatic breeze, which brings cold air from inland Victoria down valleys during the night and early morning towards Melbourne. These breezes are responsible for winds being more often from the north during winter, particularly during the morning. They are also responsible for winds being more often from the south during summer, particularly during the afternoon. This is in spite of the predominant wind stream being westerly in origin. There is a marked tendency for the very windy days to occur during the late winter and early spring months. Melbourne's strongest wind gust on record is 120 km/hr on 3 September 1982.
