Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

Sunday 3 July 2016 sees QF1463, the 0730 SYD - CBR short hop having departed at 0807, arriving half an hour late at 0855.

QF2040, the 0755 hours to DBO did not depart SYD until 0845, arriving at 0931, 36 minutes behind time.

The 0915 longhaul from MEL to LAX, QF93 (A388 VH-OQL), did not depart until 1010 with arrival suggested as 0710 hours, 35 minutes late.

VH-OEJ, a B744 on the 1005 hours SYD - HKG QF127 departed half an hour late at 1035, took off at 1106 and subject to the busy air traffic in HKG late of an afternoon should arrive 24 minutes down at 1744.

Longhaul QF11 is predicted to depart from SYD for LAX at 'high noon' 1200, two hours and 10 minutes late for same day arrival at 0830, a gain of just ten minutes on the schedule as that would be two hours tardy.

The 0950 hours QF23 (SYD - BKK) is instead altered to push back at 1100 for an identically 70 minute delayed arrival at 1750.

Medium haul QF81 (1020 SYD - SIN) should instead depart at 1115.

 

[Melburnian1]

In addtion to the abve Sunday 3 July delays, QF7, the A388 flight from SYD to DFW is predicted to push back an hour late at 1400, but arrive just 25 minutes late at 1400 hours (same day).

QF19 (1210 SYD - MNL, A333 VH=QPC) departed at 1252 with arrival predicted 25 minutes behind at 1855.

Although QF11 (A388 VH-OQL) was earlier today suggested as departing late at 1200, this did not occur until 1252, so arrival same day has been altered again to 0920, two hours and 50 minutes tardy.

 

[Flyerqf]

Qf15 was delayed today after 3.5 hour late inbound QF16 due to storms at JFK.

QF23 also was delayed until 5pm today and changed from a 332 to a 333 indicating an issue with EBL.

 

[Melburnian1]

Updating Flyerqf, the delayed 1657 hours departure of QF23 means a predicted BKK arrival at 2320 hours instead of the timetabled 1640, which would be six hours and 40 minutes behind time.

This is probably a reasonable example of a delay where it is highly irritating for passengers but the airline might not give anyone in either SYD (if QF had forewarning of the longish delay) or BKK an hotel room given the time required to transfer between airport and hotel, and back again. Information from travellers as to what did or did not occur would be great.

Applying the minimum 65 minute turnaround as QF has in this case results in a forecast BKK departure for Sunday 3 July's QF24 at 0025 on Monday 4 July with SYD arrival at 1245 not 0645. From observation there are often 'important' passengers on board who leave minimum time to get to meetings so one could imagine the smartphones and other devices' heavy use to postpone 0900 hours Sydney CBD meetings. BKK may be largely a leisure route but that does not mean there is a complete absence of business travellers.

At this stage QF's website is not displaying any delayed A333/A332 international departures from SYD on Monday 4 July but sometimes this information is not updated until closer to timetabled departure.

QF409, the 0700 hours Monday 4 July SYD down to MEL has been cancelled.

 

[Flyerqf]

Melburnian, looks like QF11/12 LAX JFK LAX are delayed on Sunday due to late inbound QF11 and 15 from SYD and BNE.

Also, QF5 is tomorrow operated by a 333, so if QF24 is the only delay, it shouldn't impact the schedule too much.

 

[Melburnian1]

Melburnian, looks like QF11/12 LAX JFK LAX are delayed on Sunday due to late inbound QF11 and 15 from SYD and BNE.

FlyerQF, the displayed forecasts for QF11 (LAX - JFK) are 1050 to 1830 hours with QF12 returning at 2000 ex JFK for a 2230 arrival in LAX. The Sunday 3 July QF11 departed BNE at 1202 - 122 minutes late - for a projected 0730 hours arrival in LAX, 90 minutes late but as noted above the bigger holdup is the late running QF11 ex SYD on Sunday 3 July at 1252 for an expected 0925 (not 0630) LAX arrival.

I assume there are reasons why the B744 on QF15 that becomes the USA transcontinental QF11 cannot depart without being held for passengers off the delayed ex-SYD QF11. Perhaps there are insufficient spare seats on AA flights ex LAX that are bound for JFK on Sunday.

These delays above in the first paragraph may then continue the cycle of two days later (Tuesday 5 July) QF15 ex BNE and QF11 ex SYD being late.

Sometimes the aircraft legs manage to make up a bit of time, but it is not guaranteed. Watch this space.

Presumably the prestige of operating into the 'Big Apple' along with the convenience and certainty it offers passengers (less 'messing around' in transferring to or from AA) and the way it facilitates freight handling all contribute to QF not wanting to cease an 'own metal' offering between LAX - JFK - LAX but these fairly frequent delays must cost quite a lot of money. They could also at times be annoying for passengers and QF staff although a legitimate question is whether if there was a compulsory transfer at LAX either to or from JFK using AA (should QF cease), would passengers be demonstrably worse off? Bookings might also decline to and from JFK for QF which given New York's importance as a financial centre (and hence a source or destination of high yielding corporate passengers) may be a key reason to keep these 'tag flights'.

The sole individual I know who has been on these flights a few months ago said they were at best 40 per cent full each across the USA. He did not know the yield per seat though.

In theory one might expect the delays across to JFK to be worse during the USA east coast winter with its ice and snow but that has not been reflected lately in the number of times during the early USA summer that the transcontinental B744-operated QF15 or the arrivals in LAX ex Oz (or departures back to Oz) have been unpunctual. It's been happening quite a bit.

 

[Flyerqf]

Presumably the prestige of operating into the 'Big Apple' along with the convenience and certainty it offers passengers (less 'messing around' in transferring to or from AA) and the way it facilitates freight handling all contribute to QF not wanting to cease an 'own metal' offering between LAX - JFK - LAX but these fairly frequent delays must cost quite a lot of money. They could also at times be annoying for passengers and QF staff although a legitimate question is whether if there was a compulsory transfer at LAX either to or from JFK using AA (should QF cease), would passengers be demonstrably worse off? Bookings might also decline to and from JFK for QF which given New York's importance as a financial centre (and hence a source or destination of high yielding corporate passengers) may be a key reason to keep these 'tag flights'.

My understanding is that JFK is a loss making route however it's there to support high yield LAX customers who want to travel onwards to JFK. Without JFK, the high yield and status customers could be lost to other airlines.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Sunday 3 July QF11 across the USA, the B744, ended up departing from LAX at 1136 instead of 0820 with forecast JFK arrival becoming 1930 hours in lieu of 1640. The return QF12 is predicted to depart JFK at 2100 instead of 1810, with LAX at the gate arrival 2335, not the usual 2105. Any resultant delays to the Sunday night QF12, QF16 or QF94 ex LAX for the Australian east coast have yet to be shown on the QF website.

The Monday 4 July's QF1461 (0650 hours SYD - CBR) departed at 0722 with arrival predicted as identically late at 0817, 32 minutes behind. QF2180 (0725 hours SYD - MRZ) has been cancelled, as has QF1463, the 0730 hours to CBR, the latter probably explaining QF1461's 0722 hours late pushback as the flights may have had their passengers amalgamated.

The first of the morning from BNE to ROK, QF2354, departed 35 minutes behind at 0635, arriving 39 minutes tardy at 0754.

QF2452 (0605 hours from BNE to mining centre MOV) was cancelled while its later scheduled colleague, QF2448, the 0630 hours departure, left at 0710 for a predicted 35 minute late arrival at 0850 hours. The third morning MOV-bound flight, QF2450 (the 0720 hours departure) has also been cancelled, as has QF2454, the 1035 hours departure ex BNE.

QF2374, the 0810 BNE - HVB is also not operating while QF1722, the 1000 from BNE to HTI will instead depart at 1145. The 1015 from BNE to BDB, QF2326 is predicted to depart 65 minutes late at 1120.

QF2390 (0825 BNE up to THG) has been unusually delayed until 0810 in departing.

The PVG - SYD redeye, QF130 shoul darrive about 37 minutes late at 0907 on 4 July. Aircraft is A333 VH-QPE.

QF420 and QF428 (0930 and 1130 hours MEL - SYD) are similarly not running this morning while the 1015 hours MEL - ADL (QF679) is expected to depart half an hour late.

QF(i)29, the 1020 MEL - HKG is worse affected with a revised pushback of 1200 'high noon'.

The Federal election uncertainty may reduce business travel a bit due to contracts not being signed or held in abeyance, and meetings being impossible to arrange with Ministers or their staff if the election outcome is not known. This may hit QF more than other airlines as it has a greater share of the business travel market. There will also be reduced passenger volumes on the CBR routes but the pollies are normally away from it for the winter as many prefer the ambiance of Paris, New York, London and so on during the time on a lovely 'study trip'.

Consumer confidence and hence spending may also reduce. If this occurs some companies will respond through staff making fewer business trips.

 

[Himeno]

My understanding is that JFK is a loss making route however it's there to support high yield LAX customers who want to travel onwards to JFK. Without JFK, the high yield and status customers could be lost to other airlines.

Crew on QF11 June 30 said that about 75% of pax were continuing through to JFK.

 

[Quickstatus]

How many late departures have been converted into early arrivals?. Such occurrences hints to a "padded flight" where flight durations are extended to improve ontime arrival even though departure is delayed.

Example: QF35 (Saturday 02 July 2016, MEL-SIN)


According to FlightStats:
Usual gate to gate schedule : 1145 - 1755hrs.
Actual gate to gate: 1202 - 1732.
About 40 minutes shaved off the usual flight duration with 23 minutes early at the arrival gate.

According to Flightradar:
Average flight duration 7:46
Actual flight duration 7:15
Flightradar does not suggest a supersonic ground speed

In comparison similar MEL-SIN flights(Flightradar)

SQ238 has an average flight duration of 7:21
SQ218 has an average flight duration of 7:15
(though these flights do not have airport departure/arrival slots juxtaposed to QF35.)

7:15 is the shortest flight duration of recent QF35. However, SIA's flights are often faster than this.

What is SIA doing/not doing that QF is not?

 

[jb747]

7:15 is the shortest flight duration of recent QF35. However, SIA's flights are often faster than this.

What is SIA doing/not doing that QF is not?

It's not an apples and apples comparison. QF35 is a 330, whilst the SQ flights are 777 and 380.

 

[Quickstatus]

It's not an apples and apples comparison. QF35 is a 330, whilst the SQ flights are 777 and 380.

Suggesting different performance characteristics - cruise speed?. Or airframe differences wrt to despatch efficiency

I understand 2 engine vs 4 engine w.r.t to ETOPS but the 777 is 2 engine and MEL-SIN is not really an ETOPS affected route

 

[jb747]

Suggesting different performance characteristics - cruise speed?. Or airframe differences wrt to despatch efficiency

I understand 2 engine vs 4 engine w.r.t to ETOPS but the 777 is 2 engine and MEL-SIN is not really an ETOPS affected route

The all fly at slightly different speeds. They add up over a seven hour sector, and pretty well exactly account for the flight time difference. 747>380>777>330.

 

[flychrisfly]

I am on QF12 LAX-SYD on Sunday 3 July. I received a text and email this morning (of the 3rd) when I awoke telling me the flight would be departing LaX an hour late but arriving in SYD 30 mins late. Current QF website data says it's running a lot later now

 

[Quickstatus]

The all fly at slightly different speeds. They add up over a seven hour sector, and pretty well exactly account for the flight time difference. 747>380>777>330.

Thanks JB747,

Your comments led me to look at QF81 vs SQ252 which are both A333 SYD-SIN operations. According to Flightradar24, QF81 has an average flight duration of 8:00 hours and SQ252 8:04 hours.

Are you able to quantify the speed differences?

So perhaps QF35 on 2 Jul had very favourable flying conditions and/or easy ATC interations.

 

[Quickstatus]

I am on QF12 LAX-SYD on Sunday 3 July. I received a text and email this morning (of the 3rd) when I awoke telling me the flight would be departing LaX an hour late but arriving in SYD 30 mins late. Current QF website data says it's running a lot later now

Your flight is waiting for the 747 coming in from JFK (QF12 transcontinental). That aircraft is expected to arrive at 2349 hrs.
It is currently overflying DEN.

The root cause was a late departure of the outgoing QF11 transcontinental LAX-JFK 2 hours 15 minutes late

I suspect that you will be waiting past 00:55 hours as that departure time seems a bit optimistic. Flightaware suggests a 0128 departure


Can you discern whats happening to QF94 to MEL and perhaps comment on the general level of service recovery by the airline?

 

[jb747]

Thanks JB747,

Your comments led me to look at QF81 vs SQ252 which are both A333 SYD-SIN operations. According to Flightradar24, QF81 has an average flight duration of 8:00 hours and SQ252 8:04 hours.

Are you able to quantitate the differences?

So perhaps QF35 on 2 Jul had very favourable flying conditions and/or easy ATC interations.

QF don't use the same route for every flight. The flight planning system looks at numerous possibilities, and picks the quickest. They also consider flight levels carefully, and don't necessarily climb at the earliest point. I don't know what SQ do, but they don't necessarily fly the same route.

Looking at the data for both flights, and the QF flight time is very consistently faster. As I know we are not planned at high speeds as a matter or course, I'd suggest it's largely a flight planning outcome.

 

[Quickstatus]

QF don't use the same route for every flight. The flight planning system looks at numerous possibilities, and picks the quickest. They also consider flight levels carefully, and don't necessarily climb at the earliest point. I don't know what SQ do, but they don't necessarily fly the same route.

Looking at the data for both flights, and the QF flight time is very consistently faster. As I know we are not planned at high speeds as a matter or course, I'd suggest it's largely a flight planning outcome.

Thanks, sorry I meant are you able to quantify the speed differences between 747>380>777>330?

 

[jb747]

Thanks, sorry I meant are you able to quantify the speed differences between 747>380>777>330?

Roughly .86/.85/.84/.82....

But. The speeds aren't fixed. The airline will develop it's own cost index scale, and that will be programmed in to the FMC. The flight plan will have CI that will be entered by the crew, and that will then control the speeds chosen. We generally use 60, but on the flights via Dubai it's normally increased to 130. The actual speed that it produces will be a product of the weight and altitude, and it reduces as the weight goes down.

An SQ 380 flying at CI 60, at the same weight and altitude could still have a different target mach number to another airline in exactly the same conditions. It would vary with the weighting given by the airline to the fuel costs, hourly costs, and the fixed cost.

 

[Quickstatus]

Roughly .86/.85/.84/.82....

But. The speeds aren't fixed. The airline will develop it's own cost index scale, and that will be programmed in to the FMC. The flight plan will have CI that will be entered by the crew, and that will then control the speeds chosen. We generally use 60, but on the flights via Dubai it's normally increased to 130. The actual speed that it produces will be a product of the weight and altitude, and it reduces as the weight goes down.

An SQ 380 flying at CI 60, at the same weight and altitude could still have a different target mach number to another airline in exactly the same conditions. It would vary with the weighting given by the airline to the fuel costs, hourly costs, and the fixed cost.

Thanks learn something new everyday

What's the practical difference between CI60 and 130.

http://www.boeing.com/commercial/aeromagazine/articles/qtr_2_07/AERO_Q207_article5.pdf