Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[jb747]

Fog issues are continuing in the Gulf. A combination of high pressure systems sitting over the region, high humidity and calm weather is the cause. The fog seems to arise from the evening into the morning. Not only are flights delayed but ground traffic on roads and highways.

Warm, very moist air from over the Gulf. The desert (i.e. everywhere) cools rapidly at night, radiating its heat away. The moisture condenses, and we have fog.

You also need fairly light winds (less than about 5 knots), so as it's a stronger than that at the moment, fog wouldn't seem to be an immediate threat.

 

[Melburnian1]

Warm, very moist air from over the Gulf... so as it's a stronger than that at the moment, fog wouldn't seem to be an immediate threat.

As at 0200 local time in DXB on 6 January, there does not appear to be any problem with QF flights in and out of DXB: QF10, which departed not long ago, is predicted to be 18 minutes early into MEL tonight.

From what time of the night or early morning does fog tend to affect flights in DXB? From observation, it appears to generally lift at about 0930 - 1030 hours. Is that on the money?

Wednesday 4 January's QF96 from LAX to MEL departed at 2341 hours, 46 minutes late but is not arriving on Friday 6 until an estimated 1110 hours, 115 minutes late. On a point-to-point basis including taxiing, it will have lost 69 minutes compared to the timetable. It did not appear to take off until 0057 on Thursday 5, which is an unusual 76 minutes between pushing back from the gate and being in the sky. There are runway alterations affecting flights at LAX according to the airport's website, and as I type (strictly not relevant to QF96's departure many hours ago) there are also some weather 'issues.'

Aircraft is B744 VH-OEE. The late arrival means that QF29 from MEL to HKG, the 1115 hours, is showing as instead departing as 1245. This may be a tiny bit optimistic: 1300 hours may be more realistic, resulting in a likely arrival in HKG of 1900 hours at the earliest, 80 minutes late. Assuming that this aircraft tonight returns to MEL as QF30, that flight's 1950 hours departure may become 2045 or similar.

 

[Quickstatus]

The local Gulf journalists (I know I know, accurate journalism = oxymoron) suggest early evening until even 1100am

 

[jb747]

The local Gulf journalists (I know I know, accurate journalism = oxymoron) suggest early evening until even 1100am

That would be the outlying extremes of it. Normally early morning (about 2-3 am) is when it starts to form, becoming thickest just before dawn. Then it will fairly rapidly burn off, mostly gone by about an hour after sunrise.

It's weird to fly into. You can be VMC on top of the cloud right down to less than 200 feet.

 

[Quickstatus]

It's weird to fly into. You can be VMC on top of the cloud right down to less than 200 feet.

What's the usual vertical extent of fog?
If it's VMC right down to 200m, it can't be VFR as you can't see the ground?

 

[Melburnian1]

On Friday 6 January delayed flights include QF79, the 0915 hours MEL - NRT that was airborne at 0951 for a forecast half hour late, 1800 hours arrival early this evening.

QF29, the 1115 hours B744 from MEL to HKG was delayed as mentioned above due to the tardiness of QF96 ex LAX. QF29 eventually pushed back in MEL at 1318, 123 minutes late but is expected to pick up time as its arrival is said to be 1835 tonight, 55 minutes late.

The 1225 hours SYD - MNL (QF19) did not depart until 1329 this afternoon so in theory arrival should be at 1815 rather than 1735, but 1815 (like in HKG) tends to be busier than 1735 so there may be more of a 'queue' waiting to get into the Philippine capital.

The longhaul B744 across the Pacific to SCL ex SYD, QF27, is showing as delayed by an hour to 1350 in its departure with predicted arrival at 1205 hours rather than a morning pull in at 1110.

On Thursday 5 January, the USA transcontinental B744 operating QF11 was again late, departing LAX 78 minutes behind at 0938 for a JFK arrival of 1716, 46 minutes late. The return flight QF12 departed at 1926 rather than the timetabled 1800 - 86 minutes late with estimated LAX arrival at 2215 rather than 2055 hours, 80 minutes behind schedule.

In turn this will mean the A388 on the Thursday night QF12 is delayed by an anticipated hour ex LAX for a Saturday 7 January arrival at 0920, 50 minutes late.

QF94 is also expected to depart unpunctually at 2300 hours on Thursday 5 from LAX (55 minutes behind schedule) leading to a Saturday 7 arrival at 0945, 45 minutes late. This will mean at least a marginally late QF93 on Saturday 7 ex MEL for LAX.

Thursday's QF16 is forecast to depart LAX 70 minutes behind at 0030 on Friday 6 January with Saturday 7 arrival at 0815, also 70 down but usually in plenty of time to form an on time departure of QF15 back to LAX as the Brisbane turnaround is longer than that in Melbourne for these LAX-bound flights.

 

[jb747]

What's the usual vertical extent of fog?

Not far. A few feet to a couple of hundred.

If it's VMC right down to 200m, it can't be VFR as you can't see the ground?

Yes. That's what the instrument rating is for.

200 feet. Not metres.

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on Friday 6 January, QF7, the 1505 hours very long flight from SYD to DFW has suddenly been delayed to an expected departure at 1605. QF suggests that if this holds true, arrival will be only 10 minutes late at 1340 hours (same day.)

QF871 (1135 hours from resort island HTI down to MEL, B738 VH-VXP) was not airborne until 1340; arrival should be 117 minutes late at 1732 late this afternoon.

The 1630 hours SYD - MEL, QF449, has been cancelled.

 

[Melburnian1]

...The return flight QF12 departed at 1926 rather than the timetabled 1800 - 86 minutes late with estimated LAX arrival at 2215 rather than 2055 hours, 80 minutes behind schedule.

In turn this will mean the A388 on the Thursday night QF12 is delayed by an anticipated hour ex LAX for a Saturday 7 January arrival at 0920, 50 minutes late.

QF94 is also expected to depart unpunctually at 2300 hours on Thursday 5 from LAX (55 minutes behind schedule) leading to a Saturday 7 arrival at 0945, 45 minutes late. This will mean at least a marginally late QF93 on Saturday 7 ex MEL for LAX.

Thursday's QF16 is forecast to depart LAX 70 minutes behind at 0030 on Friday 6 January with Saturday 7 arrival at 0815, also 70 down but usually in plenty of time to form an on time departure of QF15 back to LAX as the Brisbane turnaround is longer than that in Melbourne for these LAX-bound flights.

As sometimes occurs, these estimates turned out to be inaccurate.

The Thursday 5 January QF12 arrived LAX at 2220; the TransPacific QF12 did not depart until 0014 on Friday 6 January, 106 minutes tardy with Saturday 7 arrival now expected at 1027, 117 minutes behind schedule.

QF94 departed at 2350 with Saturday 7 January arrival predicted as 1050, 110 minutes late, again likely to result in a late QF93 ex MEL.

QF16 pushed back in LAX 123 minutes late at 0123 on Friday, so Saturday arrival is suggested as 0925, 140 minutes down.

An amended, later departure time is yet to publicly display for QF15 for Saturday 7 January on QF's website but on Friday 6 at about 2125 hours, the website altered the predicted departure for QF93 on Saturday from 1115 to 1245 hours, a 90 minute deficit. QF expects it to be an hour late (0735 hours) into LAX but from observation sometimes it can pick up 40 minutes rather than half an hour on the gate-to-gate schedule.

Friday 6 January's QF20 (A333 VH-QPC) departed at 1957, took off at 2022 and on Saturday 7 should arrive 58 minutes late at 0703 hours.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF63, the long sector from SYD to JNB (B744 VH-OEG) is delayed from 1135 hours on Saturday 7 January 2017 to an expected 1230 departure.

The 1100 SYD to HKG (QF127) is expected to depart 90 minutes late at 1230 this afternoon with arrival an hour late at 1825 early this evening. This is due to QF12 arriving in SYD at about 1040 this morning, roughly 130 minutes late as noted above.

UPDATE: QF93 from MEL to LAX (A388 VH=OQA) departed at 1328, 133 minutes late instead of the timetabled 1115. Arrival is expected 90 minutes behind schedule at 0805 hours.

QF127 did not take off until 1309 hours.

 

[Melburnian1]

The 1030 hours QF97 BNE - HKG is often on time but on Saturday 7 January, it departed at 1159, 89 minutes late with arrival estimated as 1830, an hour late. Aircraft is A333 VH-QPB.

 

[Melburnian1]

Friday 6 January 2017's QF8 creditably departed DFW three minutes late at 2008 hours, but on Sunday 8 January, SYD arrival is not expected until 0710, 65 late.

'The 12' as one esteemed contributor sometimes approvingly refers to these QF flights departed LAX 29 minutes late at 2259 on Friday; SYD Sunday morning arrival should be at 0900, half an hour late.

The LAX - BNE B744 on QF16 pushed back 47 minutes late; it should be at its Queensland destination on Sunday morning 70 minutes late at 0815.

QF94 from LAX to MEL was 28 minutes late departing; Sunday morning arrival should be 45 minutes late at 0945 hours. Of these four flights, this is the only one that on a standalone basis (that is, without other contributing factors) will cause the next trip the aircraft does to be tardy in departure, because QF93 is timetabled to depart after a smaller turnaround allowance than the other three flights. That said, QF93 can often pick up time; as one AFFer who is a flight crew member noted, the flying time is close to 13 hours and 40 minutes but the allowed time is 14:20.

The Saturday 7 QF9 from MEL to DXB (A388 VH-OQE) was showing as delayed by an anticipated half an hour to 2355 hours with its pushback. It subsequently departed at 0012 hours on Sunday 8, 47 minutes late.

 

[Melburnian1]

On Sunday 8 January, QF128 from HKG to SYD is expected to arrive 38 minutes late at 0853 hours.

The delayed QF9 ex MEL on Saturday evening is predicted to be 40 minutes late into DXB on Sunday 8. Even when the three other LHR-bound or orginating flights - QF1, 2 and 10 - manage to run on time, as AFF member Pleb Status has noted, 'the 9' appears to have difficulty departing MEL close to time. However if the stop at DXB can be cut down and some time gained gate-to-gate between DXB and LHR, the flight may be on time or very close to it arriving in LHR.

 

[Flyerqf]

QF71/72 was delayed 24 hrs on Tuesday (to Wednesday ) as VH-EBS was unserviceable.

EBS positioned empty to SYD on Thursday and is currently positioning back to PER and should return to service.

Almost 6 days out of service.

 

[Flyerqf]

QF12 (Sat 7/1) has pushed back at JFK at 2000 but at 2130 still hasn't taken off. It's due into LAX at 2330 3.5 hrs behind schedule. Some AU bound services will be delayed as a result.

It is snowing quite heavily at JFK.

 

[Flyerqf]

QF12 (Sat 7/1) has pushed back at JFK at 2000 but at 2130 still hasn't taken off. It's due into LAX at 2330 3.5 hrs behind schedule. Some AU bound services will be delayed as a result.

It is snowing quite heavily at JFK.

QF12 is now due into LAX at 0005

QF12 onto SYD is due out at 0105 (2.5 hrs late) and QF16 onto BNE out at 0205 (3 hrs late)

QF94 is departing on schedule

 

[Flyerqf]

63 to JNB departed 3 hrs late at 1457 this afternoon.

 

[Melburnian1]

63 to JNB departed 3 hrs late at 1457 this afternoon.

It did, but is due in JNB same day (Sunday 8 January) at 1850 instead of 1635, suggesting that it should pick up a total of 67 minutes on the schedule from pushback to 'on blocks' time upon arrival.

QF64 tonight is predicted to depart two hours late at 2050 with Monday 9 January arrival at 1740, 125 minutes behind schedule.

QF27 from SYD to SCL departed 35 minutes late at 1325 hours. It is expected to arrive at 1150, 40 minutes tardy. This will slightly delay departure of the returning QF28.

 

[jb747]

The delayed QF9 ex MEL on Saturday evening is predicted to be 40 minutes late into DXB on Sunday 8. Even when the three other LHR-bound or orginating flights - QF1, 2 and 10 - manage to run on time, as AFF member Pleb Status has noted, 'the 9' appears to have difficulty departing MEL close to time.

High lift catering truck, broken in the extended position.

 

[Melburnian1]

High lift catering truck, broken in the extended position. The 9 itself was quite ready.

Might this not be a most unusual cause of delay! Quite delightful to refer to it as 'the 9': almost seems like a person. I have seen catering staff occasionally have to wait quite a while before they are admitted to an aircraft after using the scissor lift, but perhaps like most travellers have not to my knowledge been delayed by a problem with the hydraulics or other equipment on board these expensive catering vehicles.

On Monday 9 January, QF94 from LAX is expected into MEL about an hour late at 1000.

QF12 departed LAX at 0118 hours on Sunday 8 January (instead of 2230 the previous night) so it should pull in to SYD at around 1043 on Monday 9, 133 minutes tardy.

The LAX - BNE QF16 should be in on Monday morning at 0857 instead of 0705 hours. The one into MEL is the sole flight of these three whose lateness on its own will lead to a late departure of the next sector - in its case, QF93 back to LAX that should depart at 1200 'high noon', 45 minutes late. Howver QF15 has been altered to an 1150 departure - normally 1110, despite in theory having sufficient allowed turnaround time to depart punctually.

QF2014 (0710 hours SYD - CFS) should instead depart at 0800.