Qantas Delays/Cancellations

Although Sunday 8 January's QF11 arrival in JFK was only 31 minutes late, the return QF12 back to LAX did not depart until 1950 hours - 110 minutes late - and thus arriving in LAX at about 2248 instead of 2255.

Due to this, QF12 from LAX to SYD departed at 0107 hours on Monday 9; on Tuesday 10, it should arrive at about 1040, 130 minutes late. Meanwhile, QF16 is predicted to be 55 minutes late - arriving at BNE at 0800.
 
Qantas named Asia Pacific's most punctual airline
http://australianaviation.com.au/2017/01/qantas-named-most-punctual-airline-across-asia-pacific/
 

The figures are questionable because OAG lacked date for 5.5 per cent of QF's flights: the report states it only had '94.5 per cent coverage' of QF's flights, lower than OAG's coverage of VA"s flights, which was 95.9 per cent (or 4.1 per cent unaccounted for.)

What if the 5.5 per cent of QF flights that were not included in OAG's database had 20 or 30 per cent that were 15 minutes 00 seconds or more late? Some of QF's operations such as QantasLink in country NSW have a large number of flights that do not meet this timekeeping benchmark.

Notably the second ranked carrier in Asia Pacific for punctuality, JL, had 99.7 per cent coverage of its flights by OAG. This makes it extremely possible that JL is actually Asia Pacific's most punctual airline.

Similarly, third ranked Singapore Airlines (SQ) had 99.1 per cent coverage of its flights by OAG, so it may also be above QF were every flight operated to be included in the statistics.

Yet sixth ranked mainline airline worldwide for punctuality, Flybe, only had 80.1 per cent of its operated flights included in the OAG survey. That makes its ranking highly speculative.

It's an interesting read but until OAG is able to cover almost every flight operated by each airline, the results should be treated with a grain of salt. Ask frequent passengers on the westbound routes ex LAX to Australia what they think of QF's almost habitual late running (particularly LAX - SYD and LAX - BNE) and one might get a dismissive result about any such survey. Similarly, the performance of Australia's domestic airlines (JQ, QF, TT and VA) on the Melbourne - Sydney route (our busiest and the world's fourth busiest) with its up to six per cent flight cancellations in a month and numerous instances of flights that are 15 minutes or more late is not great.

We do not know which QF flights have been excluded from the survey. About 14,700 (5.5 per cent) of QF's 2016 total of 268,106 flights have not been included.

Notably, worldwide by region, OAG claims 99 per cent coverage in its database of USA and Canadian flights and 98 per cent of European flights, but only 89 per cent of Asia-Pacific flights and a poor 81 per cent of African flights.

The reasons for this are not explained anywhere. Is it lack of radar coverage in some areas of the world, or under (or no) reporting by some airlines of punctuality performance? Would an airline such as 8M in Burma (Myanmar) report its flights and punctuality to such gatherers of statistics as OAG, or be covered by any government statistical agency?

The OAG punctuality statistics also cannot account for lazy schedules. If airlines build in extra time to their schedules such as QF did on its two routes from Oz serving LHR, or it routinely does on flights such as eastbound from Australia to Los Angeles, the results will be skewed towards better punctuality figures, but really all that may be happening is that a flight that departs half an hour late from a gate can still easily arrive less than 15 minutes 00 seconds late at its destination.

OAG's claim that the results are 'incredible' when compared against other modes of transport is stupid, because where it is measured by surface transport operators in the West, the punctuality of trains/ ferries/ trams/ streetcars/ buses typically includes every trip operated by these modes. There is also usually a lot less (or no) padding in many surface transport operators' schedules, unlike many airlines.
 
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docjames, OAG does not explain it as far as I can see but it looks like 'coverage' means 'was able to be measured by OAG.'

So it's the airline punctuality and cancellations equivalent of 'docjames covered all bases in respect of how he could use his FF points more effectively.'

OAG needs to succinctly explain why its data is deficient in lacking large numbers of Asia-Pacific, African and South American flights.
 
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Not according to FlighStats, where QF scrapes into the top 10:

Airline on-time performance: The world's worst and best performing airlines

These lists have limitations.

Israel's EL Al is named as the least punctual worldwide airline. On a domestic flight recently I met a businessman (Australian, but not of Israeli/ Jewish extraction) who said he and two colleagues were separately questioned for about two hours by El Al security staff before being allowed to join the flight. Others were also questioned. As a result, it departed late.

While passengers might rightly be unimpressed by some delays that are an airline's fault, Israel's status as the only democratic nation among a sea of autocratic countries makes its security requirements unique in the world. Try getting into Saudi Arabia unless one is on business: I gather it is extremely rare (or never) that a visa is granted.

Airlines like Air China and China Eastern are subject to numerous delays at mainland Chinese airports due to smog or other weather problems, and the general growth in air traffic despite the huge success of high speed rail.

Asiana, Korean Airlines and Philippine Airlines are often punctual in and out of Australia but Manila airport for instance can only handle about 40 -45 movements an hour, yet it now is patronised by more passengers than Melbourne. Incheon - Jeju Island is one of the top five (busiest) air routes in the world.

Hong Kong is efficient but extremely busy in the afternoons and can have weather such as typhoons on occasion. Punctuality is also affected by late arrivals from mainland China to the SAR.
 
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the results should be treated with a grain of salt.

As always.

I note that FlightStats has incorrect "actual departure" times for TZ1 (but not TZ2 for instance), which are always round 0/5 numbers and appear to mirror scheduled timing (or re-timing as the case may be), whereas "actual arrival" is exact to the minute. Even with established services, small glitches can remind the need for salt grains.

The OAG punctuality statistics also cannot account for lazy schedules.

Are there any statistics which measure punctuality against a "reasonable" flight duration as opposed to the airlines' own scheduling? That would be interesting.

These lists have limitations.

Lists are only for interest/entertainment in my book.
 
As always.

I note that FlightStats has incorrect "actual departure" times for TZ1 (but not TZ2 for instance), which are always round 0/5 numbers and appear to mirror scheduled timing (or re-timing as the case may be), whereas "actual arrival" is exact to the minute. Even with established services, small glitches can remind the need for salt grains.

Are there any statistics which measure punctuality against a "reasonable" flight duration as opposed to the airlines' own scheduling? That would be interesting.

Strategic Aviation, very good points.

Whenever any transport operator's timekeeping is measured, it occurs against the timetable that the operator (or in some cases if contracted to government, the government authority) lays down.

So if for instance a bus operator or the government authority supervising it inserts an extra couple of minutes at the end of a service just before it reaches the terminus - which in theory makes it easier for the service to look like it's bang on time even if it was two minutes late just back down the road a kilometre or two - the official timetable, not what it 'should' be if it was accurate - is the yardstick used for the calculations.

The same is with airlines. If an airline allows 14 hours and 20 minutes between Melbourne and Los Angeles when the true flying time tends to be 13 hours and 40 minutes, any examination of punctuality uses the official timetable that allows 14:20 to calculate whether a flight arrives 14 minutes and 59 seconds late at the gate in LAX - "on time" - or whether it arrive 15 minutes 00 seconds after the published arrival time - regarded as a "late flight."

So in theory if an airline wanted to boost its punctuality, it could add an extra five minutes to a one hour flying time sector. In practice, there may be other considerations: no slots may be available for such amended times, for instance, or the airline may perceive that some passengers may believe that their competitor(s) are faster on the route.

One quirk with FlightStats appears to be that if a flight's published timetable says it departs at 0600 hours, but there is a delay and the airline tells you and me that it will now depart at 0800, FlightStats sometimes displays the 'official' departure time as 0800 when in fact it is really 0600 as that was the promise to passengers shown in the published timetable. So in that case, FlightStats will grossly underestimate the delay to we passengers.

You are correct: the lists are entertaining, and somewhat useful as a broad guide, but they suffer from (unlike with surface transport), the surveying entities (FlightStats or OAG - competitors it seems) not being able to access 100 per cent of the flights each airline made.

Until they can address this, the timekeeping rankings have a major deficiency. We do not know which flights each airline makes have been excluded from the survey, and why for instance JL's flights were covered ('captured') by the OAG survey far more than were QF's flights. I would have thought the 'feed' of data for QF, VA and other Australian airlines' flights would have been almost perfect, but obviously that is not the case. If many of these exclusions were 15 minutes 00 seconds or more late arriving at the destination airport gate, then the claimed punctuality percentages will have been overstated.

Given that far more of JL's flights appear to be captured for these calculations than QF's, it looks like (contrary to what has been published) that JL is Asia Pacific's most punctual airline. Many AFF readers including myself have been to Japan multiple times and know that nation's residents are sticklers for punctuality so it's not a great surprise that its airlines (and even more, its trains) fall into that category and excel at getting passengers to their destination as quickly as possible and punctually to boot despite domestic climatic challenges that are arguably harsher, and airports busier, than is the case on the Australian continent.
 
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Some years ago, Flightstats used to show a lot more transactional detail about timing changes/adjustments relating to a flights.

Often you would see a 'battle' between the Carrier and another entity (Airport or FAA, etc.) regarding actual timings of a flight where the Carrier would declare one "truth" and the other entity would adjust that "truth" to represent their version of reality. This could go back and forward many times until one or the others desisted.

Sadly, this type of information is harder to access these days.
 
On Wednesday 11 January 2017, QF94 from LAX to MEL (A388 VH-OQI) should arrive at about 0933, 33 minutes late.

The B744 twice weekly QF96 (VH-OEH) on the same route is a lot tardier, with arrival likely at 1139, 139 minutes late.

The LAX - BNE B744, VH-OEE on QF16 should arrive at about 0754, 39 minutes late.

UPDATE: QF1949 (B717 VH-NXE, the 0740 tourist flight that took off at 0826) should arrive at 1002 this morning, 31 minutes behind schedule.
 
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QF5, the Wednesday 11 January 1715 hours from SYD to SIN (A332 VH-EBS) did not take off until 1941 hours. Instead of a 2230 hours arrival this evening, it should pull in at 0020 on Thursday super early morning, 12 January.

The returning QF6 is forecast to depart from SIN at 0130 hours rather than 2350. SYD arrival should be at 1230 rather than 1050 hours.
 
QF768, the 1500 hours 11 January from PER across to MEL did not take off until 1723; arrival of A332 VH-EBJ should be at about 2342, 127 minutes behind time.
 
Thursday 12 January 2017 has QF11, the 1130 SYD - LAX (A388 VH-OQB) having departed at 1246 hours and taken off at 1301, so arrival should be 40 minutes late at 0655.
 
The Wednesday 11 January 2017 QF9 departed MEL only nine minutes late at 2334. On Thursday 12 however, it did not arrive in DXB until 0715 hours (45 minutes late), departing at 0917, a similar 47 late with LHR arrival expected as 1345, 65 minutes behind schedule.
 
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The Wednesday 11 January 2017 QF9 departed MEL only nine minutes late at 2334. On thursday 12 however, it did not arrive in DXB until 0715 hours (45 minutes late), departing at 0917, a similar 47 late with LHR arrival expected as 1345, 65 minutes behind schedule.

If you have a look at the tracks for the two sectors, you'll see an hour of holding on arrival, and then around the same time lost during taxi on departure. Fog. The overall delay isn't bad in the circumstances.

London will provide some weather comic relief tonight, as it goes for low vis and snow.
 
If you have a look at the tracks for the two sectors, you'll see an hour of holding on arrival, and then around the same time lost during taxi on departure. Fog. The overall delay isn't bad in the circumstances.

London will provide some weather comic relief tonight, as it goes for low vis and snow.

Do you take significantly more fuel for longer than normal holding in these circumstances?
 
Do you take significantly more fuel for longer than normal holding in these circumstances?

You will if you have the information at flight planning time. You can also be limited by max landing weight. If you carry lots of additional, but then don't use it, the extra weight will be a problem.
 
...The overall delay isn't bad in the circumstances...London will provide some weather comic relief tonight, as it goes for low vis and snow.

Thanks - enjoy the 'comic relief' - some who have lived there all of their lives may consider it a right Royal pain. I once asked someone in Romania who spoke English whether they enjoyed the ice and snow and received a grumpy, dismissive reply.

I wasn't criticising the QF9 delay - merely recording it. Interesting that fog at DXB is not a 'constant' during say January and February as those of us like me who do not live in such an environment may perceive (incorrectly) that the weather is pretty much the same day in, day out in each season.

The Wednesday 11 departure of QF2 from LHR occurred at 2040 hours - a creditable five minutes ahead of schedule - but DXB arrival at 0818 today (12 January) was 33 minutes behind time, with subsequent departure at 1046 being 71 minutes tardy - presumably the same fog causing delays to many aircraft. SYD arrival on Friday 13 should be at 0800, 90 minutes late. 'The 2' does not often run this late.

QF777, the 1535 hours 12 January MEL - PER (A332 VH-EBD) was airborne at 1755; arrival should be at 1853, 133 minutes late.
 
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Friday 13 January sees QF44, the redeye from DPS to SYD (B738 VH-XZK) running about 38 minutes late with arrival likely at 0728.
 
QF29 (1115 MEL - HKG) did not depart until 1245, but QF is asserting that it will arrive only 25 minutes late at 1805 early this evening HKG time. This would mean a net gain of 65 minutes gate-to-gate on the timetable.
 

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