Qantas Delays/Cancellations

More on Tuesday : QF9 MEL-PER-LHR is showing a 115 minute delay for a revised Melbourne departure of 17:00 AEST, with the delay currently holding through to Heathrow for a 07:00 BST arrival Wednesday.
Not sure why, as although one of the two B789s in Melbourne VH-ZNB, has positioned to Auckland, ZNK arrived just a few minutes late with QF22 DFW-MEL at 05:33 AEST this morning.
 
Switching to Sydney on Tuesday : QF7 SYD-DFW is showing a 190 minute delay for revised departure of 17:50 AEST, with the delay holding to Dallas arrival. The return QF8 may not be affected by this delay.

Today's delays appear to be flight crew related, after 10 of Saturday's 13 B789 flights that day being delayed.
 
QF104 was delayed yesterday but as seems usual, the aircraft overstayed at HNL (compared to the timetabled allowance).

Operating QF104 ex HNL scheduled on Monday 15 May's 'high noon', A332 VH-EBS was airborne at 1413 hours with Tuesday 16 May SYD arrival becoming 2039 hours, 119 minutes late.

It wouldn't be usual for QF25 from SYD up to HND to be formed by the arriving domestic QF650 (the 1430 hours mid afternoon departure from PER domestic, due in SYD at 2035 for an international - different terminal - timetabled pushback of 2020) - but that's what's occurring today.

QF25 is expected to push back at 2235 tonight after QF650 arrived at 2042 hours. This may well be achievable but if so, a good effort as the aircraft has to travel between terminals in Sydney, adding time to the whole shebang.

It isn't every day, but seemingly gone are the days when QF25 so often ran early, arriving Japan as early as 0430 hours.

A friend who uses points to travel on QF25 occasionally, but who uses JL more often points out that JL and NH run on time to and from Oz 95 per cent of more of the time yet QFi with these relatively new schedules (incorporating for instance MEL - Japan flights) can't achieve this.
 
You do have to wonder what is going on or wrong at QFi. These delays have been happening for weeks now and I have not seen anything like it. I wonder whether it is a crewing minimal time on ground issue?
 
Has anyone looked at cancellation rate on MEL-SYD and vice versa on those quarter hour flight. How many actually complete, is there a pattern to the cancellation (certain days, certain specific flights eg. 815 and 0900 departures ex-MEL today)?
 
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You do have to wonder what is going on or wrong at QFi. These delays have been happening for weeks now and I have not seen anything like it. I wonder whether it is a crewing minimal time on ground issue?

I am not a QFi 'insider' but if you're referring to QF25 delays, that seems to be due to the much smaller time with the newish timetable for turnarounds, rather than the aircraft from Sydney spending all day in Japan.

With other routes, yes, crewing problems must be some of the reasons: for instance if 'the 1' runs badly late, the next '1' for the Singapore to London sector may be delayed, with it and 'the 2' further complicated by how the flight crew are (as one would expect) based in Australia but the cabin crew are normally UK residents.

QFi hasn't publicised this but perhaps they have a shortage of available 'qualified running staff' i.e. international flight deck crew, as any late running may have a compounding effect, with some staff insufficiently rested (or perhaps having already worked their maximum permitted hours for a month?)

The key question is 'how come the vast majority of QFi's international airline competitors who aren't based in Oz can manage this, while QFi cannot?'

JQ has just admitted its performance 'hasn't been good enough.'

Yet QFi continues on its most major routes to have unacceptable delays, and less frequently, cancellations. Businessmen and women who for instance have recently assumed that QF93 would get them from Melbourne to the 'City of Angels' as per the timetable have been left high and dry on some days. Yet they're often paying sky-high fares.
 
On Wednesday 17 May 2023, QF12, the LAX-SYD is arriving at 0831 hours, 46 minutes late as this 2340 hours as this Mondat late night 2340 hours departure did not take off until 0033 on Monday morning LAX time.

A388 VH-OQG arrived this morning as QF2 at 0540 hours, half an hour late in SYD (ex SIN and LHR).

As 789nerd mentioned a few posts above, QF7 on Tuesday 16 May was badly delayed, taking off from SYD at 1752, and arriving DFW at 1659 hours, 54 late.

The B789 from LAX to MEL on 16 May (due to depart in about seven hours at 2220 hours local time) as QF94 has been delayed by an expected three hours in pushback to a revised time of 0120 hours on Wednesday 17, meaning the Thursday 18 arrival will be tardy. As 789nerd also opined above, most likely these delays are flight crew related in that these staff won't have enjoyed sufficient mandated rest time in Los Angeles. Perhaps cabin crew may be in the same boat.
 
Has anyone looked at cancellation rate on MEL-SYD and vice versa on those quarter hour flight. How many actually complete, is there a pattern to the cancellation (certain days, certain specific flights eg. 815 and 0900 departures ex-MEL today)?

Months ago I had a bit of a squiz and thought any '15' and '45' scheduled departures were more likely to be cancelled. Whether this was a statistical blip though was hard to know.

Obviously, incorrect this morning from the small sample you provided.

If you subscribe to FR24 (I don't), you may well be able to look up performance of specific flight numbers (such as QF420, the 0815 hours MEL-SYD) for a much longer period than seven days. This may enable you to compile an hypothesis.
 
The late running on major routes continues.

A388 VH-OQD arrived this morning in SYD at 1041 hours, 176 minutes tardy as QF12 from LAX. This was flagged above.

There'll be a reason such as planned maintenance cycles, but to someone 'not in the tent' it might make sense to have the 1020 hours SYD-LAX QF11 formed by the arriving QF2 (as noted above, this arrived with OQG at 0540, half an hour late).

However, OQD looks to be on 'the 11' with departure unsurprisingly amended to 1235 hours. It seems to have pushed back at about 1238-1240 (not yet reflected on various websites).

QFi is suggesting arrival at gate of 0905 hours, two hours late on Wednesday 17 May.

This late running means passengers connecting to other USA cities or towns often must be rebooked. On routes with lower frequencies, this may see the delay blowing out further.
 
Continuing with 17 May 2023, QF19, the 1210 hours SYD-MNL is expected to depart at 1315 hours.

The tardy QF11 was airborne at 1252 with LAX arrival (same day) suggested as 0846 hours, 101 minutes late.
 
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The B789 from LAX to MEL on 16 May (due to depart in about seven hours at 2220 hours local time) as QF94 has been delayed by an expected three hours in pushback to a revised time of 0120 hours on Wednesday 17, meaning the Thursday 18 arrival will be tardy. As 789nerd also opined above, most likely these delays are flight crew related in that these staff won't have enjoyed sufficient mandated rest time in Los Angeles. Perhaps cabin crew may be in the same boat.

QF94 (B789 VH-ZNC) took off from LAX at 0212 hours on Wednesday 17 so Thursday 18 May morning at gate arrival should be about 1028 hours, 223 minutes behind the timetable.
 
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Thursday 18 May 2023's QF149 (B738 VH-XZF), the 1815 hours SYD-AKL was not airborne until 2027 hours so arrival at gate on Friday 19 became 0117 hours, 57 minutes late. This was the third time in the last week for a post-0100 hours arrival. This time of flight may be popular with businessmen wanting to maximise productivity but the risk is an 0200 or later hotel arrival, not ideal if one has an early morning meeting.

Also on Friday 19, QF1 from SIN to LHR should arrive at 0718 hours, 43 late as takeoff from SIN of this 2330 hours schedule second sector was not until 0040 this morning, despite A388 VH-OQB having arrived SIN at 2136 hours last night, only six late.
 
Thursday's QF8 DFW-SYD (B789 VH-ZNB) while only 7 minutes late pushing back in Dallas, is expected into Sydney at 06:46 AEST Saturday 31 minutes late.

Friday's QF9 MEL-PER-LHR (B789 VH-ZNE) is currently shown as delayed 55 minutes for a 16:00 AEST Melbourne departure. The onwards delays are projected to reduce to 35 minutes, through to Heathrow for a revised arrival of 0540 BST.

I note that it is reported elsewhere that B789 VH-ZNA is positioning to Busan for wing repaint. It will be interesting to see how the remaining fleet cope with the thrice weekly re-introduction of SYD-SFO-SYD from 22nd. [1,4,6]
 
Friday's QF9 MEL-PER-LHR (B789 VH-ZNE) is currently shown as delayed 55 minutes for a 16:00 AEST Melbourne departure. The onwards delays are projected to reduce to 35 minutes, through to Heathrow for a revised arrival of 0540 BST.

The retiming was accurate as the plane took off from MEL at 1616 hours on 19 May with PER at gate arrival suggested as 1749 hours, 34 minutes behind the schedule.
 
A333 VH-QPG on Friday 19 was only seven minutes late arriving in SYD this morning at 0647 hours as QF20 ex MNL overnight, but in returning to the Filipino capital as QF19 (1215 hours ex SYD), it did not take off until 1356 so the expected at gate 1953 hours arrival will be 63 minutes behind its timetable.

Earlier, B738 VH-VZT on QF101, the morning 0835 hours SYD up to NAN was in the sky at 1016 so arrival became 1551 hours mid afternoon, 76 minutes tardy. QF102 returning is worse, being expected in at 1958, 103 minutes behind the schedule.
 
I am due to fly on the QF74 SFO to SYD on the 22 May, any idea which plane coming into Sydney will be used for the QF73 and return QF74 I will be on?
 
Friday's QF9 MEL-PER-LHR (B789 VH-ZNE) is currently shown as delayed 55 minutes for a 16:00 AEST Melbourne departure. The onwards delays are projected to reduce to 35 minutes, through to Heathrow for a revised arrival of 0540 BST.
While the delay into Perth ended up at 41 minutes and departure delay 42 minutes, Qantas still sees Heathrow arrival holding at 0540 BST.
 
I am due to fly on the QF74 SFO to SYD on the 22 May, any idea which plane coming into Sydney will be used for the QF73 and return QF74 I will be on?
Too early to say - at the present time, in most recent arrival order into Sydney on Monday relative to QF73 departure (and barring unforeseen delays) ...
QF28; QF64; QF76; QF8 plus one "spare" from Sunday out of ZNB, D, G, H, I or K
On Monday, with the "spare' known, earlier departures of QF11, QF63, QF7 & QF27 will eliminate all but one of these.
 
Today's QF9 MEL-PER-LHR is also delayed, this time by a somewhat greater amount : 115 minutes. This delay is shown as holding through to Heathrow for a 07:00 BST arrival. This should not impact on the return QF10.
 

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