Qantas Delays/Cancellations

[Melburnian1]

Thank you defurax for the kind 'interim' explanation. It would be interesting to know if these deviations are necessary more at certain times of the year in the Middle East.

 

[Melburnian1]

The Sunday evening (27 September 2015) QF12 from LAX to SYD departed 20 minutes late at 2220 hours but QF suggests that it will lose 50 minutes en route, arriving in the Harbour City at 0720 on Tuesday 29 rather than the scheduled 0610. However the B744-operated QF18, which has a faster schedule, departed LAX 53 minutes late at 0048 hours on Monday morning LAX time and is due in SYD on time at 0740.

 

[jb747]

The Sunday evening (27 September 2015) QF12 from LAX to SYD departed 20 minutes late at 2220 hours but QF suggests that it will lose 50 minutes en route, arriving in the Harbour City at 0720 on Tuesday 29 rather than the scheduled 0610. However the B744-operated QF18, which has a faster schedule, departed LAX 53 minutes late at 0048 hours on Monday morning LAX time and is due in SYD on time at 0740.

The arrival estimate was amended to 0805. That's still a little odd, in that the 380 has left a little late and continues to lose time, whilst the 747 has also left late, but seemingly will gain time. The 747 cruises faster (by about 6 knots) than the 380, but you'd expect both flights to lose or gain approximately equally. So, where's the difference? Additionally, it's a rare flight that has sufficient fuel to have the journey time blow out by an hour. One potential difference lies on the ground. You can sometimes suffer delays between the gate and the runway. You've already 'departed', so that delay seems to go into the flight time. And you're on the ground, so the fuel use is minimal.

 

[jb747]

Thank you defurax for the kind 'interim' explanation. It would be interesting to know if these deviations are necessary more at certain times of the year in the Middle East.

Diversions from all ports vary with the time of year. Companies even vary the crewing structure (as well as fuel loadings) to try to account for them.

 

[jb747]

With the southeast bound QF2 (LHR - DXB - SYD) due in the Middle East at a similar time to QF9, it is surprising that if one flight (QF9) has been affected two days in a row, QF2 has not been.

The obvious difference between the two flights is their duration. QF2 leaves London when the 9 has already been in the air for about 7 hours, and most likely has a later weather forecast. Additionally, it's only flying a relatively short flight, and so has much more weight available for some extra fuel. Nevertheless, many a 2 has ended up in Bahrain.

There are some delays affecting other airlines in and out of DXB but this is not unknown. I do not know if other airlines' flights were similarly diverted away from DXB at 0730 local time this morning, or yesterday.

I have no idea about other airlines diversion rates from Dubai, but when you're sitting in the holding pattern watching the fog or sandstorms there's generally a constant stream of people leaving for various other airports as their own available holding time is used up.

The nearby options are Dubai World (which normally has the same weather as Dubai) or Al Ain... Muscat and Bahrain require quite solid amounts of fuel for the diversion, and that will often force the decision to leave the hold (or perhaps to drop in en route). Abu Dhabi generally won't accept diversions, and is subject to the same weather anyway. Once you've diverted, (and you won't be the only one), you become subject to the area's slot management system, so even if you're ready to depart again in an hour, there's no guarantee that you'll be able to do so. The same thing applies with a diversions in Europe.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thank you jb747. Fascinating explanations, and yes, I had thought extra time on the ground might account for most of the difference in the two LAX - SYD flights' elapsed journey times but it is indeed a large difference.

QF10 arrived seven minutes early in MEL last night (Monday 28 September 2015) at 2048 with no doubt happy passengers bound for bed at the expected time.

Unfortunately, however, the flight it forms, QF9 did not depart until 0327 this morning (Tuesday 29), which is four hours and 32 minutes late. Accordingly QF suggests it will be in DXB from 1125 to 1250, cutting down on the allowed intermediate stop time of two hours and five minutes with estimated arrival in LHR at 1720 hours, three and a half hours late. There is no public website mention as yet of a third consecutive day of diversion to MCT so hopefully that will remain the case. (Apologies: the AFF abbreviation system has kicked in with mention of 'MCT' and consequent underlining, but I am referring to 'Muscat, Oman airport' not 'minimum connecting time.')

The good news is that barring unexpected required attention to the aircraft, this QF9 delay should not affect the departure of QF2 back to DXB and SYD. The problems with short turnarounds are more at the Oz end, and especially in MEL. Nonetheless, since airlines require profits to continue to technologically innovate, invest in fleets and please shareholders, there are some pluses with quick turnarounds, but the delays in MEL for 'the 9' are noticeable.

www.theqantassource.com succinctly mentions in respect of the first MCT diversion of QF9 above that this was due to 'long hold times at (really 'approaching') Dubai.' A nice way to put it.

jb747, do aircraft that are bound for say DXB but 'unexpectedly' diverted due to fog or other cause to say BAH or MCT mostly have to take on some extra fuel in BAH or MCT for the relatively short hop to DXB? I used to hear occasional stories of airlines that do not normally call into airport X having to pay cash for fuel on the spot, but has this long changed with electronic payment methods, more trust among airport managements of long established airlines' ability and willingness to reliably pay, whether or not immediately, for fuel purchases and so on? (Perhaps these stories were an urban myth or embellishment but they dated from the late 1980s prior to the Internet's introduction.)

 

[jb747]

Discussion about diversions and fuel decisions can become quite lengthy. I'll have think about it, and answer it on the Pilot thread.

As for the cash (or credit card) comments...it isn't an myth, but it's extremely rare. If anything, it applies mostly to airlines that are perceived to be on their last legs. Major airlines will have agreements with fuel companies at nominated alternates. If you happen to end up at one that isn't on the list, then you'll most likely deal through another airline that you have a commercial arrangement with.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thank you jb747. Gratifying to know that not everything one heard before the Internet was completely fallacious.

It is wrong to suggest that the QF10 is delayed every day. Last night it was early, as noted above. However this evening (Tuesday 29 September 2015) into MEL ex LHR and DXB, 'the 10' is unfortunately (exactly) an anticipated three and a half hours late at an 0025 Wednesday 30 arrival after departing LHR a creditable one minute early at 1329 hours on Monday and arriving DXB four minutes late at 2329 hours. It however did not depart the desert city until 0524 hours (1124 AEST) this morning after a stay of almost six hours.

Unusually QF is suggesting that QF9 will not then depart until 0400 on Wednesday (five hours and five minutes late) after a stay of three hours 35 minutes in MEL, longer than the usual one and three quarter to two hours 'hurried' turnaround. Perhaps some maintenance has to occur on the A388. QF expects that QF9 will arrive LHR at 1810 hours on Wednesday evening, four hours and 20 minutes late, but still normally in good time to form that night's QF2 back to DXB and SYD.

 

[Melburnian1]

Given what one news website said was rain 'pounding Brisbane' (although I can only see on the Bureau site that five millimetres has fallen between 1530 and 1730), it is unsurprising that there are some delays. The amount does not on face value look intense but 'Mexicans' like me may well have a different view if we were standing unprotected at the time.

QF2553 from RMA to BNE is timetabled to arrive at 1745 on Tuesday 29 September 2015 but is forecast onto blocks at 1852 hours. QF1713 from GLT is a forecast 52 minutes late for an 1817 hours arrival. QF2325 has been delayed an hour from 1815 to 1915 in its arrival at the BNE 'gate.' QF1550 from CBR will be an expected 57 minutes late, arriving at a projected 1927 hours this early evening. QF2381 from HVB is forecast to arrive at 1956 hours, 81 minutes late. QF2523 from MOV is expected to be even worse with arrival 83 minutes behind schedule at 2043 tonight.

Unlike QF so far (at least in the sample of arrivals I noted, apart from QF540 ex SYD, the 1835 hours arrival that 'got the gong'), VA has cancelled a couple of smaller destination flights. I will post these in the VA delays thread. So full marks to QF for not similarly cancelling smaller destination QantasLink flights, although neither operator likes to do that due to weather if it can at all be avoided.

 

[Ant_Walker]

QF9 from Melbourne to Dubai on Tuesday 29th September has been delayed. It was scheduled for departure at 10:50pm but won't be leaving until the nice time of 4am. No explanation as to the delay and in my case not even a text message telling me. The onward flight arriving in London is now scheduled for arrival at 6:10pm instead of 1:50pm. Unfortunately there won't be much happening at the airport as the lounge is still due to close at 11:15pm.

 

[defurax]

QF9 from Melbourne to Dubai on Tuesday 29th September has been delayed. It was scheduled for departure at 10:50pm but won't be leaving until the nice time of 4am. No explanation as to the delay and in my case not even a text message telling me. The onward flight arriving in London is now scheduled for arrival at 6:10pm instead of 1:50pm. Unfortunately there won't be much happening at the airport as the lounge is still due to close at 11:15pm.

IME QF will keep the lounge(s) open until boarding. Last time I flew QF9 we were in the lounge until 1AM. If for some reason QF does close the lounge, there is still the EK lounge open for the 3AM departure to KUL.

 

[Melburnian1]

Thank you Ant_Walker for confirming what I had written in post number 1748 above re the QF9 severe delay.. You may not have seen it as it was not the most recent post.

Perhaps you could politely press QF for an explanation. Is it maintenance as I suggested above, or a (lack of) staff(ing) issue - tech or cabin crew?

Naturally the contracted hospitality staff cannot work 'for ever' in a single afternoon shift, but others have previously reported that when flights such as QF9 are late, the lounge stays open until boarding time if I recall. Sorry for you as sitting in the general area without a magazine or a comforting drink or snacks is not ideal if you are a passenger travelling in J or F or if you have earnt 'status.' (And no, I am not trying to be sarcastic: few of us enjoy such delays, and less so if we lack 'first world' creature comforts.)

Since you probably never eat dinner at 0515 in the morning, I wonder how you will enjoy the initial catering.

(As I was posting this, defurax confirmed what I wrote about 'others.')

UPDATE: VH-OQL should be the operating aircraft. It is about to pass above Busselton on the WA coast coming in to Oz on QF10.

 

[jb747]

jb747, do aircraft that are bound for say DXB but 'unexpectedly' diverted due to fog or other cause to say BAH or MCT mostly have to take on some extra fuel in BAH or MCT for the relatively short hop to DXB?

Missed that. They'll always need extra fuel.

http://www.australianfrequentflyer....sion/ask-the-pilot-30478-425.html#post1319590

 

[Melburnian1]

A complex subject explained (mostly) in layman's terms. Very interesting, jb747 but I haven't lately noticed any diversions of MEL-terminating flights to SYD. The focus at present seems to be on DXB and alternate of MCT.

If I remember Melbourne's winter in 2015 (although I was not in Oz for those complete three months), Melbourne may have lacked any days of fog dense enough to cause aircraft not to take off, or to divert away from MEL. And yet some media articles said it was a severe winter. It felt like one (at least in Australian terms.)

 

[jb747]

A complex subject explained (mostly) in layman's terms. Very interesting, jb747 but I haven't lately noticed any diversions of MEL-terminating flights to SYD. The focus at present seems to be on DXB and alternate of MCT.

It's the same geometry...a diversion field that occurs before a very long range destination.

 

[Melburnian1]

The delayed evening QF9 from MEL on Tuesday 29 actually departed a bit later than QF had estimated on Wednesday 30 Seotember (today.) It was off blocks at 0447 this morning with QF expecting it to arrive at the DXB terminal at 1220 local time which was one or two minutes ago.

QF suggests that it will depart DXB at 1350 for an 1800 hours arrival in LHR, still in plenty of time (touch wood) to form the 2125 hours QF2 back to DXB and on to the Australian Harbour City.

 

[Himeno]

What % of QF10 and QF1 (LHR/DXB sector) has been delayed over the last few months?
I'm doing a HEL-LHR-DXB-LHR-PVG 'mileage run' in early Nov as part of a RTW. I have 3 hours in LHR between AY0831 and QF10 and 7 hours between QF1 and BA169. If delays continue to be common into November with some of them as long as those reported, I might be worried about the QF10>QF1 and QF1>BA169 connections.
(Did a similar thing last year shortly after the MEL-LHR retiming [CDG-LHR-DXB-LHR-PEK] and had a 90 min tech delay after boarding QF10, which caused arrival in DXB to mean I had to go right to the QF1 gate. The year before I had a BA>QF connection at DXB and was forced to have a 24 hour delay because BA screwed me around and caused a misconnect)

 

[Melburnian1]

himeno, there are two ways of looking at flight punctuality statistics.

On the one hand, if we don't know the mistakes of history we have a good chance of repeating them, but on the other, some of these delays may be 'seasonal.' For instance fog or sandstorms may be more prevalent in DXB some months and not a problem in others; snow or ice can be a problem in the UK in perhaps February but is not in say July.

So with that caution, FlightStats - Global Flight Tracker, Status Tracking and Airport Information gives QF1 on the DXB to LHR sector an '0.1 out of 5' - a very, very poor punctuality rating. As you know an international flight is a late arrival if it arrives more than 15 minutes 59 seconds late at the gate.

QF1's average (the site may mean 'median') delay was 49 minutes for the last 60 trips. There were 18 'excessive' (the term the site uses) delays. The standard deviation was high which if memory serves me correctly means that there were quite a few extreme delays - some or all of which are recorded on this thread.

Nothing there proves that you will delayed, but while an imperfect guide it unfortunately suggests you have a good chance of incurring a delay in excess of half an hour and a fair chance of an 'excessive' delay. One would hope it would not be seven hours: that is a 'very, very excessive' (my words) delay.

QF10 is better at a flightstats punctuality rating of 1.8 out of 5, although that is not particularly impressive. The average delay is 26 minutes. Of the last 61 flights on the LHR - DXB seven and a half hour or so sector, seven have been 'very late' and another seven 'excessive' (delay) so while not as bad as QF1, it is nonetheless somewhat concerning.

The good news is that on occasion QF1 can manage to arrive in LHR early, as it has on at least one day this week. However as you probably know DXB is now extremely busy and so holding patterns and obtaining new slot time(s) can increase delays as one of our esteemed contributors noted above in a discussion about aircraft diverting to BAH or MCT.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF51 from BNE to SIN is normally punctual but that was not the case yesterday (Tuesday 29 September 2015.) It is timetabled ex BNE at 1215 but did not depart until 1331 hours. It then diverted to CGK where it spent from 1751 to 1844 before arriving in SIN at 2131 hours, four minutes shy of three hours late. It then formed a late QF82 from SIN to SYD, departing at 2307 hours not 2020 as timetabled, arriving SYD this morning at 0836 instead of 0615 hours.

Today (Wednesday 30 September) it then departed for SIN ex SYD 27 minutes late at 1047 but arrived SIN only 10" down at 1655.

I had thought that normally the day flight from BNE landed in SIN and then formed the Melbourne red eye, and the reverse was true for the ex MEL flight, but that was not true last night if at all.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF12 on Wednesday 30 September departed LAX 84 minutes late at 2324 but is forecast to arrive in SYD on Friday 2 October 2015 at 0655, 45 minutes late. Because SYD is busy at this time with numerous international arrivals, a 45 minute delay could ensure that some connecting passengers to NSW country destinations, ADL and so on miss their booked connecting flight as delays in the customs hall increase.

QF2 on Wednesday departed LHR 20 minutes late at 2145 hours, arriving DXB at 0757, 27 late. However it then spent massively over time in ;the desert', not departing until 1110, 115 minutes behind time. As a result forecast SYD arrival on Friday 2 October will be at 0650 instead of 0510. Touching wood, this should not delay any other A388 QF flights.