Qantas flight cutbacks ?

[drron]

Technically we haven't had a recession since the early 90s as it is defined as 2 quarters of negative GDP growth.
However the point has been made that our GDP has been increased because of higher population growth than any other OECD country so our GDP per capita has only just remained in positive territory.it was negative in the December 2018 quarter but squeaked in at +0.2% in March.
In 2008/09 GDP was negative in the December quarter 2008 but squeaked in at +0.3% in the March 2009 quarter.But Australia's population growth was higher in 2008/09 than the 5 previous years.

So amaroo although you are technically correct that Australia hasn't had a recession States but regional areas have been in recession at times in these last 20+ years-they do have economies so do have their own GDPs.The problem is the top end of town and cities have escaped unscathed.The lower end of the population and regions have not escaped.
Why even Bill Shorten was calling out Scomo on the no recession under the Libs saying we were having a per capita of GDP recession.Gone quiet on that though as pointed out that meant no economic miracle in 2008/09 but that as 2019/20 proceeds we will be very lucky to have GDP per capita growth in Australia and he would then be caught in his own trap.

 

[amaroo]

So amaroo although you are technically correct

Wasn't me @drron I try to avoid threads like this one these days....

 

[drron]

Sorry amaroo I just trusted my memory as I knew it was someone i knew well.Turns out it was that darned Rooflyer.
And he should know better.Tassie is in an almost permanent recession.Every time i come here more businesses have gone closed.

 

[RichardMEL]

Well fun speculation and all but I mean a carrier like QF would cut capacity (ie: flights) based on demand flagging and those worrying about FF seats.. well it's all relative isn't it? I mean less demand for revenue travel would also impact demand for FF travel to a similar degree as people, ome would presume, cut back on discretionary spend like holdays and so on. I mean it's one thing to save money by redeeming points on flights, but one still has to spend at the destination....

I find it hard to believe a change in government (or the current mob staying, as unlikely as it seems) would have a major impact on a carrier like QF's overall capacity strategy.. certainly not overnight anyway... even if policies saw a reduction in PS employees/spending, those changes would still take time to filter through.

 

[dajop]

sign of the times. Get the impression no one is buying business class & everyone trying to upgrade.

Think about it, if you were a business owner or person in the company who approves business travel & been told to reduce travel expenses & you see $762 return SYD/LAX whereas usual last minute type fare is $3k+, then you might say to person wanting to fly, something along the lines, plan your trips earlier & fly at $762 or don't go. Even if you upgraded to business class on one long haul sector, that's probably $1600 ish total spend.

I don't know, but in the three companies I've worked in last twenty years, typically they wouldn't force us to fly via a second tier carrier with a single stop to save several hundred dollars. If things are that tight, we would already be in "travel ban" territory (no travel unless critical and approved by executive team member). Also, unless it is for a conference or an event at a specific time, my experience is it is difficult to organise business travel significantly in advance. You were talking about fares in February 2020 earlier. There is no way I am yet thinking about business travel for February next year.

 

[RichardMEL]

Another thought.. talking domestic QF have 75 737-800's.. they can't just slash and burn and have a LOT of expensive aircraft sitting around doing nothing not earning money.. it's likely if anything more sales amnd bonus promos to stimulate demand. Sure, some services may be reduced, eg ever 15 min peak time MEL-SYD shuttles and the like, but QF has been proactively doing cancels a few months out for some time now (I've had a number of bookings changed due to this)

 

[Vic]

Irrespective of who runs the government I expect a recession. Based on your post it seems Qantas does as well. Political party makes no difference, doubling debt by handing out billions in tax cuts just doesn't work. I just hope that the current mob, who ran aus into the ground, get reelected so they have to face the consequences of their mismanagement.

if unions win lower house but clive controls senate, it could get interesting. Alp means less money not more. Higher penalty rates simply means less employment, when they apply.

hahahahahaha
Lower penalty rates have not created a single new job. In fact I know of one business that now puts on fewer staff on Sunday after penalty rates were reduced. Based on that experience lower penalty rates means less employment.

 

[dajop]

Irrespective of who runs the government I expect a recession. B

Probably the biggest variable to determine whether there is a recession or not is immigration intake. If there are serious cuts to immigration, the whole ponzi scheme will fall apart.

 

[Vic]

Probably the biggest variable to determine whether there is a recession or not is immigration intake. If there are serious cuts to immigration, the whole ponzi scheme will fall apart.

Completely agree. Both major parties (to a greater and lessor extent) seem to be being wagged by a vocal tail that is opposed to immigration. (but telling that immigration by plane is increasing massively).
I think there is less chance of a recession with one of the main parties, which just happens to have policies directed towards addressing wages. That's should help spending and growth, certainly much more than the 5-10k tax cut I've been promised in 2024.
Still I expect recession, and hence will not spend any tax cut, instead saving it as much as possible.

 

[Isochronous]

Irrespective of who runs the government I expect a recession. Based on your post it seems Qantas does as well. Political party makes no difference, doubling debt by handing out billions in tax cuts just doesn't work. I just hope that the current mob, who ran aus into the ground, get reelected so they have to face the consequences of their mismanagement.



hahahahahaha
Lower penalty rates have not created a single new job. In fact I know of one business that now puts on fewer staff on Sunday after penalty rates were reduced. Based on that experience lower penalty rates means less employment.

Disproving basic economic laws of supply, demand and price with one anecdote. All hail the new Adam Smith!

 

[ozfflyer]

Irrespective of who runs the government I expect a recession. Based on your post it seems Qantas does as well. Political party makes no difference, doubling debt by handing out billions in tax cuts just doesn't work. I just hope that the current mob, who ran aus into the ground, get reelected so they have to face the consequences of their mismanagement.



hahahahahaha
Lower penalty rates have not created a single new job. In fact I know of one business that now puts on fewer staff on Sunday after penalty rates were reduced. Based on that experience lower penalty rates means less employment.

recession has already kicked in for retail, hospitality & many business are closing soon & the slight reduction in penalty rates meant that some stayed open on Sunday & hung in there for a bit longer.

 

[Spongbob]

I assume the OP is hinting at a UAP government?

 

[ozfflyer]

I assume the OP is hinting at a UAP government?

no but clive might have lots of power in senate

 

[Vic]

Disproving basic economic laws of supply, demand and price with one anecdote. All hail the new Adam Smith!

Hmm, Well you didn't quote an anecdote, and my comment as quoted doesn't mention laws of anything. So what is your point...?

 

[Isochronous]

Hmm, Well you didn't quote an anecdote, and my comment as quoted doesn't mention laws of anything. So what is your point...?

You rejected the idea that there is a relationship between the price of labour and demand for labour based on talking to one business. No surprises that you would spout economic illiteracy when you clearly fail to understand the meaning of what you write on here!

 

[Melburnian1]

If there are to be 'cutbacks', we have to separate the domestic routes from the international ones.

Based on statistics that relate to numbers of passengers not yields per aircraft/available seat, in broad terms demand for international travel is still rising. This is true for most airlines and most routes. We have more than 50 international airlines serving Australia.

However, the salad days may be behind us, as it's not hard to see slower growth in international trips, but there are so many variables, including exchange rates that it'd be good to see a few more months' figures.

Domestic demand is barely increasing annually at population growth levels with the picture in the three months to February a small decline, varying by route (although bear in mind dajop's previous point about one more business day in Dec 2017 than in Dec 2018).

One could suggest that the high rate of cancellations on our number one route, Sydney to Melbourne, is symptomatic of flatlining or declining demand.

As always to the airlines it's more about yields than numbers of posteriors on seats. However if domestic demand is depressed or flat, the higher priced fares (not just J but the dearer Y fare bucket categories) must eventually fall in price unless airlines want more empty seats flying around - unless flight frequencies are to be cut as the OP suggests.

The Liberal/Nationals Coalition is way ahead of the Labor/Greens alliance in economic management skills. Consumer behaviour can have a fair bit to do with perceptions about the future. There's a lot of negativity in the housing market: many commentators say Shortens' policies for housing will be disastrous. Labor's plans for higher overall taxation are highly likely to result in businesses becoming even less optimistic/more pessimistic and that will in time translate to fewer jobs, less overtime and higher underemployment. This means less discretionary income to spend on travel.

Not much good pushing up employers' wage costs way beyond CPI if the result is individuals losing their jobs and lower investment by business. Shortens' move (if elected) to increase childcare employees' wages by 20 per cent, for instance, will have all sorts of unintended consequences, none of them good for the vast majority of Australians. (Labor's ruled out similarly increasing aged care, retail and hospitality employees' wages/salaries by 20 per cent. Where's the equity in that? One can see other unions jumping up and down or employees having mass walkouts if union coverage is high - it isn't always).

 

[ozfflyer]

If there are to be 'cutbacks', we have to separate the domestic routes from the international ones.

Based on statistics that relate to numbers of passengers not yields per aircraft/available seat, in broad terms demand for international travel is still rising.

However, the salad days may be behind us, as it's not hard to see slower growth in international trips, but there are so many variables, including exchange rates that it'd be good to see a few more months' figures.

Domestic demand is barely increasing annually at population growth levels with the picture in the three months to February a small decline, varying by route (although bear in mind dajop's previous point about one more business day in Dec 2017 than in Dec 2018).

One could suggest that the high rate of cancellations on our number one route, Sydney to Melbourne, is symptomatic of flatlining or declining demand.

As always to the airlines it's more about yields than numbers of posteriors on seats. However if domestic demand is depressed or flat, the higher priced fares (not just J but the dearer Y fare bucket categories) must eventually fall in price unless airlines want more empty seats flying around - unless flight frequencies are to be cut as the OP suggests.

The Liberal/Nationals Coalition is way ahead of the Labor/Greens alliance in economic management skills. Consumer behaviour can have a fair bit to do with perceptions about the future. There's a lot of negativity in the housing market: many commentators say Shortens' policies for housing will be disastrous. Labor's plans for higher overall taxation are highly likely to result in businesses becoming even less optimistic/more pessimistic and that will in time translate to fewer jobs, less overtime and higher underemployment. This means less discretionary income to spend on travel.

Not much good pushing up employers' wage costs way beyond CPI if the result is individuals losing their jobs and lower investment by business.

think what you meant to say above .......... was that the airlines will need to put more fares in lower priced buckets. They won't reduce fares or fare bucket prices, in fact they might actually increase, cos those who don't care what the fare is(mostly those who aren't paying themselves) will still try to get the same booking class of travel

not ....

the higher priced fares (not just J but the dearer Y fare bucket categories) must eventually fall in price unless airlines want more empty seats flying around.

 

[Quickstatus]

a wholesaler who books heaps of QF, has been told their wholesale agreement will be changed to only include certain flights, ie. that other flights might be canned.

Makes perfect sense, when you think about it.

Doesn't point to anything other than the wholesaler is not happy.
I thoroughly understand you are looking for bargain fares (and from other threads it seems like you found some and well done) but aren't you just creating a narrative that fits with your aim?

 

[serfty]

[Moderator hat ]

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Some off topic posts have been deleted.​

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Please stick to tbe thread topic which is "qantas flight cutbacks".​

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[Moderator hat]

 

[ozfflyer]

Doesn't point to anything other than the wholesaler is not happy.
I thoroughly understand you are looking for bargain fares (and from other threads it seems like you found some and well done) but aren't you just creating a narrative that fits with your aim?

no but it makes perfect sense, slowing economies mean airline cutbacks everywhere, or some won't survive