Qantas orders new 787s and A350s

[justinbrett]

The extra are A350s are a nice surprise. Thought it might've been 10 B787-10s if at all.

With those in mind, I think it's likely the B787-9s get a refurb to go 30J/21W/211Y (removing the 2nd J cabin, removing one row of W and backfilling with more Y).

B787-10 to go for 36J/21W and the remainder Y (about ~250).

A350-1000 not for ULR will have no F, extra Y instead.

It looks like there's options for more A350s which are intended to replace the A380s (everything on order is to replace the current batch of A330s). Depending on performance, they may take more A350s for midrange capacity and hopefully the B777-9s to replace the A380 in addition. Time will tell

I don't agree with you regarding the 787s.

I would expect the 787-9s continue to be used for long, thin routes (eg MEL-DFW) - so should keep their current config; perhaps the new 4 aircraft will get a denser config.

787-10s will be used for shorter, denser routes (remember these are the A330 replacements that don't even have W) so expect these will have a much more dense config than the -9s.

The investor pack posted upthread said these A350s are to replace the A380s.

 

[downtheback]

I don't agree with you regarding the 787s.

I would expect the 787-9s continue to be used for long, thin routes (eg MEL-DFW) - so should keep their current config; perhaps the new 4 aircraft will get a denser config.

787-10s will be used for shorter, denser routes (remember these are the A330 replacements that don't even have W) so expect these will have a much more dense config than the -9s.

The investor pack posted upthread said these A350s are to replace the A380s.

I quote the investor pack

"The Group has today announced a firm order for 24 widebody aircraft, consisting of 12 Boeing 787s and 12 Airbus A350s. With deliveries starting in FY27 and continuing into the next decade, these aircraft will replace the bulk of the current A330 fleet"

Nothing here about A350s replacing the A380

"with purchase right options stretching out until at least FY37 to provide flexibility for future growth and, ultimately, replacement of the A380 fleet."

Ah there it is. The future options from FY37 will replace them.

My take on the situation is this:

Currently have 14 B787-9s in service. We know that PER-LHR will go Sunrise when available which takes 2 aircraft to serve , which leaves 12 B787-9 worth of routes to upgauge. Those are all taken over by the non ULR A350s (12 on order - nice match one for one).

This then leaves 14 B787-9s plus 4 new B787-9s (18 total) and 10 B787-10s to replace the 16 A330-200s and 10 A330-300s (again - nicely matched).

Maybe a thin route like MEL-DFW stays B787-9 in the more dense config, or maybe it gets served by the A350-1000 with the same/reduced frequency.

Seeing as these are all one for one replacements except for the Sunrise flights, it doesn't leave QF a lot of room for expansion unless the A321XLRs can do some heavy lifting (which I suspect they might, I don't think we will see widebodies on flights to Perth, NZ, near Pacific or Indonesia once they come online)

 

[RooFlyer]

If we are saying vale to the A380s, ET gave us a bit of a trip down memory lane, and this from 2008:

 

[justinbrett]

I quote the investor pack

"The Group has today announced a firm order for 24 widebody aircraft, consisting of 12 Boeing 787s and 12 Airbus A350s. With deliveries starting in FY27 and continuing into the next decade, these aircraft will replace the bulk of the current A330 fleet"

Nothing here about A350s replacing the A380

"with purchase right options stretching out until at least FY37 to provide flexibility for future growth and, ultimately, replacement of the A380 fleet."

Ah there it is. The future options from FY37 will replace them.

My take on the situation is this:

Currently have 14 B787-9s in service. We know that PER-LHR will go Sunrise when available which takes 2 aircraft to serve , which leaves 12 B787-9 worth of routes to upgauge. Those are all taken over by the non ULR A350s (12 on order - nice match one for one).

This then leaves 14 B787-9s plus 4 new B787-9s (18 total) and 10 B787-10s to replace the 16 A330-200s and 10 A330-300s (again - nicely matched).

Maybe a thin route like MEL-DFW stays B787-9 in the more dense config, or maybe it gets served by the A350-1000 with the same/reduced frequency.

Seeing as these are all one for one replacements except for the Sunrise flights, it doesn't leave QF a lot of room for expansion unless the A321XLRs can do some heavy lifting (which I suspect they might, I don't think we will see widebodies on flights to Perth, NZ, near Pacific or Indonesia once they come online)

and pretty clear in the Media Release:

• Firm order for 12 Airbus A350 and 12 Boeing 787 aircraft.
• Additional purchase right options for renewal and growth.
• Provides replacement for current A330 and A380 fleets over 10-plus years.

 

[Scarlett]

Also a new A330 refurb program from FY25, particularly focussed on Economy - mention of next gen seat for the aircraft sticking around.

Am I the only one who read this and thought: “oh no”? This has ‘enhancement’ written all over it, in the truest QF sense.

Replacement of the current A330 Y seats with those from the B787-9? I guess that’s not a ‘next gen’ seat, but since when have QF marketing ever bothered basing their claims in reality!
Surely QF wouldn’t go 3-3-3 in an A330 would they?

 

[Himeno]

My take on the situation is this:

Currently have 14 B787-9s in service. We know that PER-LHR will go Sunrise when available which takes 2 aircraft to serve , which leaves 12 B787-9 worth of routes to upgauge. Those are all taken over by the non ULR A350s (12 on order - nice match one for one).

This then leaves 14 B787-9s plus 4 new B787-9s (18 total) and 10 B787-10s to replace the 16 A330-200s and 10 A330-300s (again - nicely matched).

They have also previously said that the sunrise flights will be in addition to the 1 stop flights. ie, they'll go back to using all 4 of their LHR slots once sunrise is in operation, 2 slots for sunrise flights and 2 for 1 stop flights.

 

[Peasant]

View attachment 340250

and pretty clear in the Media Release:

• Firm order for 12 Airbus A350 and 12 Boeing 787 aircraft.
• Additional purchase right options for renewal and growth.
• Provides replacement for current A330 and A380 fleets over 10-plus years.

I think you’ve gotten yourself confused.

QF stated today that the A380 retirements will start in 2032 and that the A350 options will cover for these between then and 2037.

They were also clear in stating that the A330s will be replaced by a mix of the 4 787-9s, 8 787-10s and 12 A350-1000LRs. Some of the younger A330s that will stay on will be refurbished.

If you refer to the slide pack, you will see that on slide 49 they will receive 8 A350LRs by the end of FY29, in addition to the 12 A350ULRs, three years before the 380 starts leaving the fleet.

 

[SYD]

Am I the only one who read this and thought: “oh no”? This has ‘enhancement’ written all over it, in the truest QF sense.

Possibly.

Replacement of the current A330 Y seats with those from the B787-9? I guess that’s not a ‘next gen’ seat, but since when have QF marketing ever bothered basing their claims in reality!
Surely QF wouldn’t go 3-3-3 in an A330 would they?

Not sure there are any A330 operators with 3x3x3! 2x4x2 is pretty standard.

 

[eminere]

Not sure there are any A330 operators with 3x3x3! 2x4x2 is pretty standard.

Cebu Pacific, Air Asia X and Air Caraibes operate nine-abreast A330s.

 

[justinbrett]

I think you’ve gotten yourself confused.

QF stated today that the A380 retirements will start in 2032 and that the A350 options will cover for these between then and 2037.

They were also clear in stating that the A330s will be replaced by a mix of the 4 787-9s, 8 787-10s and 12 A350-1000LRs. Some of the younger A330s that will stay on will be refurbished.

If you refer to the slide pack, you will see that on slide 49 they will receive 8 A350LRs by the end of FY29, in addition to the 12 A350ULRs, three years before the 380 starts leaving the fleet.

Certainly the impression I got - as did some media sources - was the final long haul fleet was this order + the sunrise 12. That ends with exactly the same number of widebodies as now.

If that is not the case, and there will be a further order for the A380s - fantastic.

They do need to replace the A330s ASAP, and mixing between Boeing & Airbus will enable them to do that faster - but A350-1000s are way to big for many A330 routes. ET are reporting they'll come in sunrise config (minus the well-being area) and "hopefully first class" (their quote). So it is possible they might be used during the transition period but once all 787s arrive they can move to the premium longer routes where they belong.

It wouldn't surprise me if QF have designed this to range from a minimalist option (this order and no more) through to massive growth with lots of new A350s and 787s - and they can tailor in the coming years as things progress.

 

[Saab34]

Watch the investor webcast on the website, they go into a bit more detail around the 787/350 and like for like replacements.

 

[Peasant]

They do need to replace the A330s ASAP, and mixing between Boeing & Airbus will enable them to do that faster - but A350-1000s are way to big for many A330 routes.

But if you think back, the A330s were in some respects an aberration and not the natural course of history. Think Brisbane-Los Angeles, Sydney-Hong Kong/Tokyo/Honolulu - they were primarily 747 destinations and could support the jumbo consistently across many years.

They were forced into using the A330 because they’d failed to order enough wide bodies to keep their seat count.

The A350-1000 puts them back on the natural pre-covid trajectory. And hopefully for we passengers, returns the supply demand balance to a more reasonable position.

 

[justinbrett]

But if you think back, the A330s were in some respects an aberration and not the natural course of history. Think Brisbane-Los Angeles, Sydney-Hong Kong/Tokyo/Honolulu - they were primarily 747 destinations and could support the jumbo consistently across many years.

They were forced into using the A330 because they’d failed to order enough wide bodies to keep their seat count.

The A350-1000 puts them back on the natural pre-covid trajectory. And hopefully for we passengers, returns the supply demand balance to a more reasonable position.

Yeah I think we've come full circle on this discussion - you are 100% right; my original point is the A350s will be used for long haul, thick(ish) routes. I would include BNE-LAX and SYD-HNL in that description. So I think the config will be there to match. I don't see the existing 787-9s changing either, not for 15+ years.

It is the 787-10s I expect to have a denser configuration, they have a shorter range and will be ideal for transcon / trans tasman / short Asian routes - although they could do BNE-LAX if they wanted but probably not with a dense config.

 

[Himeno]

Also remember that they got the 330s for almost nothing as inticement by airbus to order the 380. QF didn't have any airbus aircraft at the time of the 380 order, airbus gave them 330s to get some experance with airbus systems.

 

[pauly7]

Also remember that they got the 330s for almost nothing as inticement by airbus to order the 380. QF didn't have any airbus aircraft at the time of the 380 order, airbus gave them 330s to get some experance with airbus systems.

Yes often referred to as the ‘accidental airframe addition’ within Qantas, but if you think about and step back it they’ve been a big success for QF, but also for Airbus and its presence in Australia. Look at where Airbus is now with Qantas v back then.

Quite fascinating. Could talk for hours on this

 

[jb747]

Also remember that they got the 330s for almost nothing as inticement by airbus to order the 380. QF didn't have any airbus aircraft at the time of the 380 order, airbus gave them 330s to get some experance with airbus systems.

Only the first few though. After that the aircraft had to stand on it's own. The sad part of it all is that back around 2000 I was very much a Boeing fan, and not so much Airbus. In the last 23 years though, Airbus has continually risen in my estimation, and Boeing has leapt off a cliff.

 

[AustraliaPoochie]

If they do put *more* of their 787s onto Aus longer dom flight runs, it would help move me back to QF/QFF, seeing the other Aust dom op does not have any larger sized planes.
Granted there are some who do not like the 787s.

 

[Steve994]

Reuters are reporting that Qantas are nearing a new widebody order, with an unspecified number of 787-10s earmarked as an A330 replacement.

Qantas Airways nears new Boeing 787 widebody order

Boeing is close to securing an order for more of its 787 Dreamliner aircraft from Australia’s Qantas Airways , industry sources said.

www.reuters.com

The 787-10s might be the replacement for the A330 on international routes but I wonder if they will ever be used east - west in Australia. Unfortunately I think the days of wide bodies on these routes are numbered and it's only a matter of time before Per-Syd and Per-Mel follow what has already happened on Per-Bne.

 

[jakeseven7]

There was actually some discussion amongst analysts that Jetstar could be moved out of wide body operations all together at some point, releases their 787s back to QFd or QFi and Jetstar would leverage international ops with the range the new A321’s could deliver.

I’m not sure I buy it but thought would throw in mix

 

[AIRwin]

Jetstar would leverage international ops with the range the new A321’s could deliver.

Even to HNL and ICN?