Qantas orders six more 787s, plans to retire all 747s by 2020

[straitman]

It gets better...

View attachment 124668

Correct me if I am wrong, but wasn't UA811 a 747-100?

A bizarre article IMHO.

Not true. QF have finally accepted that people want direct flights from A to B, without having to change to a connection at some major hub. It's the main reason carriers like Emirates and Etihad are so successful, because you can bypass big ports like Heathrow and Frankfurt and fly onestop into places like Venice, Edinburgh or Minsk. QF are never going to fly a 747 into these smaller cities and the A330 doesn't have the range, whereas the 787 gives them the ability to try new routes that were never supportable in the past. And I think they'll cancel the existing A380 order, cop the penalties (they've got plenty of cash these days) and order the 777x. Ordering the A380 was always a mistake for QF with just far too few routes able to be profitable with an aircraft of that size and capacity.

A hub model and a hub and spoke model are actually very similar in the way they are run. The biggest variation is, as oz_mark pointed out, caused by geography.

 

[Toad]

I'm not sure I follow, with Emirates - they are also just using a major hub, with a much better geographic location.

And if you look at many of routes QF's 747's currently do, I suspect they will continue, albeit with smaller capacity aircraft (notwithstanding possible frequency increases). Thinking SYD-SCL, SYD-JNB, BNE-LAX-JFK, SYD-HND (this last one may be relevant, there are more A to B flights with MEL/BNE-Tokyo flights). Aside from the game changing routes like "sunrise" routes from SYD to LHR and JFK, it's difficult to see what potential there is for a whole more "A to B" flights .... maybe more routes in Asia (eg BOM, ICN, TPE?), or US-bound BNE-SFO or BNE-DFW, SYD-ORD, but these are still connecting to hubs (AS @ SFO, AA at ORD/DFW).

Will SYD-JNB end up being another QF9 and go via Perth if they use the 787-9 as I have read current CASA ETOPS rules will not allow a twin engine aircraft to go so far south like the multi engine 747 400. I recall the article also saying it comes up short even direct from Perth on CASA ETOPS. I am sure somebody here can shed light on this.

 

[UP4014]

Not true. QF have finally accepted that people want direct flights from A to B, without having to change to a connection at some major hub. It's the main reason carriers like Emirates and Etihad are so successful, because you can bypass big ports like Heathrow and Frankfurt and fly onestop into places like Venice, Edinburgh or Minsk. QF are never going to fly a 747 into these smaller cities and the A330 doesn't have the range, whereas the 787 gives them the ability to try new routes that were never supportable in the past. And I think they'll cancel the existing A380 order, cop the penalties (they've got plenty of cash these days) and order the 777x. Ordering the A380 was always a mistake for QF with just far too few routes able to be profitable with an aircraft of that size and capacity.

Etihad, how do you define success.
Etihad Has $1.87 Billion Loss in Worst Blow to Gulf Carriers

 

[Limewood]

We loved nothing more than in J up in the 747 small cabin bubble in Mk11seats, glass in hand, lots of storage, one loo for a small group and a galley with two flight attendants, they will be missed.

 

[jb747]

I also don't think this is a 1:1 replacement.
Remember you've also got a potential Project Sunrise order

Which certainly won't happen in the 2020 time frame. If the 787 and 747-800 (and the KC46) are anything to go on, the 777 X will be years late.

 

[Himeno]

Will SYD-JNB end up being another QF9 and go via Perth if they use the 787-9 as I have read current CASA ETOPS rules will not allow a twin engine aircraft to go so far south like the multi engine 747 400. I recall the article also saying it comes up short even direct from Perth on CASA ETOPS. I am sure somebody here can shed light on this.

The great circle route for PER-JNB dips slightly into the ETOPS330 area, but no where near as far south as the east coast routes do.

Shaded areas are ETOPS ranges (180, 240 and 330)

 

[UP4014]

The great circle route for PER-JNB dips slightly into the ETOPS330 area, but no where near as far south as the east coast routes do.
View attachment 124736
Shaded areas are ETOPS ranges (180, 240 and 330)

please look under your seat or in the armrest for your immersion suit.....

 

[JohnK]

The plane itself was well worn. The Business class seats were very very tired and the cabin felt dull....

I was happy to experience the 747 for this trip, but I think that its time they were retired.

And the experience in economy is as good as, if not better than, the A380 and on a totally different level to the A330s/787s.

I'll be flying the Queen of the skies again in ~4 weeks and will try to book as many 747 flights before they retire.

 

[marki]

And the experience in economy is as good as, if not better than, the A380 and on a totally different level to the A330s/787s.

I'll be flying the Queen of the skies again in ~4 weeks and will try to book as many 747 flights before they retire.

I am lucky to be doing it tomorrow !!
Also in that bubble. I will try not and sleep all the way.

 

[Toad]

The great circle route for PER-JNB dips slightly into the ETOPS330 area, but no where near as far south as the east coast routes do.
View attachment 124736
Shaded areas are ETOPS ranges (180, 240 and 330)

It was my understanding that currently the QF 787 9 is only rated to 180 which apparently puts them 15mins short of JNB but I guess that means getting a rating from CASA for 240

 

[straitman]

It was my understanding that currently the QF 787 9 is only rated to 180 which apparently puts them 15mins short of JNB but I guess that means getting a rating from CASA for 240

Something to look up but some 787 models have engines that the FAA are lowering the ETOPS rating due to on going reliability issues.

 

[Himeno]

It was my understanding that currently the QF 787 9 is only rated to 180 which apparently puts them 15mins short of JNB but I guess that means getting a rating from CASA for 240

No. There is currently a type rating reduction for 787s powered by Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines due to the on going engine problems with the Trent 1000. Qantas does not use Trent 1000 engines on their 787s.
Only about 1/3 of the entire world wide 787 fleet does, which include BA and NZ.

 

[Toad]

No. There is currently a type rating reduction for 787s powered by Rolls Royce Trent 1000 engines due to the on going engine problems with the Trent 1000. Qantas does not use Trent 1000 engines on their 787s.
Only about 1/3 of the entire world wide 787 fleet does, which include BA and NZ.

Which makes me wonder that QF63, 4 will be a Sydney to JNB via Perth like QF 9.

 

[Must...Fly!]

Not sure I get the logic from the post above. But if QF can build a brand around it's Perth stopover experience it would be a great idea for them. Lower the capacity, add a whole new market to fill the smaller plane .and go head to head with a rival that has a poor product and can't afford a price war.

Easy pickings, really. If they can make a one stopper from the East Coast work.

 

[Happy Trails]

There's a bit of an impasse over PER terminal use at the moment.
I expect it will be resolved in QF's favour.

Qantas suspends growth of western hub at Perth Airport over proposed South Africa service | The West Australian

Qantas has suspended growth of its western hub because Perth Airport refuses to allow it to use its new T3 international wing for its proposed South Africa service.

 

[mannej]

A bizarre article IMHO.

It is a forum post, which I can no longer find...

 

[Toad]

There's a bit of an impasse over PER terminal use at the moment.
I expect it will be resolved in QF's favour.

Qantas suspends growth of western hub at Perth Airport over proposed South Africa service | The West Australian

Qantas has suspended growth of its western hub because Perth Airport refuses to allow it to use its new T3 international wing for its proposed South Africa service.

That my Q. If they win and go to JNB from Perth I wonder if the Syd direct flight will cease due to ETOPS restriction of the southern routes out of Syd which is I surmise is a multi engine route (747) Just asking from people who know more about it then me

 

[Himeno]

Just saying JNB via Perth from Syd. I just have read can’t remember where that the 787 9 currently doesn’t have the CASA ETOPS rating to fly direct on the current southern route. QF are having a stink with Perth Airport over which terminal the ? Perth JNB 787 9.would use. If QF are considering a JNB from Perth I would think that might mean direct from Sydney will cease. That way they can directly compete against SA out of Perth. Or does it mean two flights to JNB maybe. Hopefully all my trips there will be over being the 747 goes

The proposed PER-JNB flight is reported to be a A330. They won't have enough 787s to do it, they have about 13 A330s available to pull off domestic/NZ flights.

Qantas currently has rights for 7 flights/week to South Africa. They haven't yet asked for more, although there are 14 more weekly flights available.
The SYD-JNB flight is currently 6/weekly. The proposed PER-JNB is reportedly 4 weekly.
It is possible they could reduce the SYD flight to 3 weekly and have the PER flight for the other 4 days

 

[Toad]

The proposed PER-JNB flight is reported to be a A330. They won't have enough 787s to do it, they have about 13 A330s available to pull off domestic/NZ flights.

Qantas currently has rights for 7 flights/week to South Africa. They haven't yet asked for more, although there are 14 more weekly flights available.
The SYD-JNB flight is currently 6/weekly. The proposed PER-JNB is reportedly 4 weekly.
It is possible they could reduce the SYD flight to 3 weekly and have the PER flight for the other 4 days

Thank you finally someone who knows the answer I was looking for. I just guess using a 787 9 means they just won’t go far south as the 747

 

[Must...Fly!]

Thank you finally someone who knows the answer I was looking for. I just guess using a 787 9 means they just won’t go far south as the 747

Qantas will not be doing this just for seasonal runs sake. They haven't done it for years despite having capable aircraft. This is about testing the market and SAA ability/willingness to dig in for a fight.

New 787s come on line from late 2019 which could be partially directed to a restructure of JNB flying. Gives Qantas a full summer season to analyse - in fact, two if it wishes. (If the latter deliveries of the 787 conversions are favoured)