Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[wandering_fred]

SYD-LHR (courtesy of gcmap)
great circle 10573 mi
via DOH 10948 mi
via ANC 11823 mi
via SEA 12539 mi
via DFW 13328 mi
Consider the location for your wandering
Fred

 

[SYD]

In reality, wouldn’t we be expecting something in between the PER-LHR routes and the direct GC route? Probably not wildly different from QF1/2 now but optimised not having to bounce through SIN?

 

[justinbrett]

In reality, wouldn’t we be expecting something in between the PER-LHR routes and the direct GC route? Probably not wildly different from QF1/2 now but optimised not having to bounce through SIN?
View attachment 368199

See comments above about overflying Russia and China. QFA1 doesn't fly north of Georgia (which would be Russia) - it actually follows the same route as QFA9 from DXB.

 

[SYD]

See comments above about overflying Russia and China. QFA1 doesn't fly north of Georgia (which would be Russia) - it actually follows the same route as QFA9 from DXB.

That was the point of the comment and picture to show that the actual route could / would be something akin to QF1/2 now.

Probably not wildly different from QF1/2 now but optimised not having to bounce through SIN?

 

[justinbrett]

That was the point of the comment and picture to show that the actual route could / would be something akin to QF1/2 now.

Your comment & pic implied a more northerly route.

QFA1 doesn't take the GC route as per your pic. It takes the same route as QFA9. Here are the two superimposed:

This is also the route both @jrfsp and I were predicting sunrise SYD-LHR would take.

 

[SYD]

Your comment & pic implied a more northerly route.

QFA1 doesn't take the GC route as per your pic. It takes the same route as QFA9. Here are the two superimposed:

This is also the route both @jrfsp and I were predicting sunrise SYD-LHR would take.

Nope, that wasn’t the intention. Just showed the non-stop GC route to reinforce the problem with Chinese and Russian airspace but the indicative routes of QF9/10 and QF1/2 bookend the more likely region they‘ll ultimately operate within.

Which all actually reinforce the technical challenge of getting an aircraft that will do the non-stop run (not saying it won’t!).

 

[justinbrett]

but the indicative routes of QF9/10 and QF1/2 bookend the more likely region they‘ll ultimately operate within.

But the route you have for QFA1 is nothing like the rotue it actually takes. Your map shows it almost completely north of India, where as its much further south than that - mostly staying over the Indian ocean.

In reality, wouldn’t we be expecting something in between the PER-LHR routes and the direct GC route?

No, it will be almost the same as PER-LHR as that is already skirting the southern border of Russia.

 

[dajop]

What's interesting is that whilst SYD-LHR great circle does have considerable transits of Russia and China, MEL-LHR just touches China and has a much shorter transit of Russia. Shows that a small change at one end can make big difference to the great circle. But also detouring is probably not that significant, as suggested in several posts already.

 

[Himeno]

Russia has closed its airspace to most countries which have been supporting Ukraine. Australia hasn't been banned, but Qantas has opted not to route via Russian airspace.
Ukraine airspace has been closed since Feb 2022 due to Russia's invasion. Airspace in Moldova near the Ukraine border is also closed due to Russia.
The Simferopol FIR (Crimea), which controls half the Black Sea, has been closed since 2014 due to both Russia and Ukraine attempting to control that airspace.
Syria is under do not fly listings from the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Italy and France.
Yeman is also under do not fly listings by the above, with some allowances for oceanic routes within Yeman controlled airspace.
Iraq has warned of GPS jamming in the north. US, UK, Canada, Germany, Italy and France have again listed the the Baghdad FIR as do not enter, again with some allowance to fly above FL320. (Germany says FL280 and South Africa says FL300)
US, UK, Germany, and Canada are also saying not to enter Tehran FIR (Iran). US also says to be careful around the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. France says not to fly over western Iran, Eastern Iran over FL320. Italy says don't fly in Iran below FL320.

There are also similar warnings for airspace in Egypt, Sudan and Libya.

If things get worse around the middle east, even the current QF1/2/9/10 routes might have problems.

 

[SYD]

But the route you have for QFA1 is nothing like the rotue it actually takes. Your map shows it almost completely north of India, where as it’s much further south than that - mostly staying over the Indian ocean.

Precisely, that’s just the GC route.

No, it will be almost the same as PER-LHR as that is already skirting the southern border of Russia.

Well, not ex SYD/MEL. There’ll be some waypoint to get towards DXB or thereabouts - again my comment about not needing to bounce through SIN. The direct nonstop route tracks over HKG but the actual route is probably going to be closer to CAE. Compare the inefficiency with @dajop ’s post

 

[justinbrett]

Precisely, that’s just the GC route.

Well, not ex SYD/MEL. There’ll be some waypoint to get towards DXB or thereabouts - again my comment about not needing to bounce through SIN. The direct nonstop route tracks over HKG but the actual route is probably going to be closer to CAE. Compare the inefficiency with @dajop ’s post

And that is just a function of the Mercator projection, it's really not inefficient at all.

It's barely a detour to stop into SIN on the GC route between SYD-DXB (+52 miles, or 0.8% longer). Not even worth a consideration due to other factors like winds and availability of air routes.

People get hung up on GC routes a bit too much IMO.

 

[jrfsp]

Russia has closed its airspace to most countries which have been supporting Ukraine. Australia hasn't been banned, but Qantas has opted not to route via Russian airspace.
Ukraine airspace has been closed since Feb 2022 due to Russia's invasion. Airspace in Moldova near the Ukraine border is also closed due to Russia.
The Simferopol FIR (Crimea), which controls half the Black Sea, has been closed since 2014 due to both Russia and Ukraine attempting to control that airspace.
Syria is under do not fly listings from the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Italy and France.
Yeman is also under do not fly listings by the above, with some allowances for oceanic routes within Yeman controlled airspace.
Iraq has warned of GPS jamming in the north. US, UK, Canada, Germany, Italy and France have again listed the the Baghdad FIR as do not enter, again with some allowance to fly above FL320. (Germany says FL280 and South Africa says FL300)
US, UK, Germany, and Canada are also saying not to enter Tehran FIR (Iran). US also says to be careful around the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. France says not to fly over western Iran, Eastern Iran over FL320. Italy says don't fly in Iran below FL320.

There are also similar warnings for airspace in Egypt, Sudan and Libya.

If things get worse around the middle east, even the current QF1/2/9/10 routes might have problems.

I wouldn’t be surprised if flight ops have already looked into alternative options if things in the Middle East deteriorate

 

[justinbrett]

Russia has closed its airspace to most countries which have been supporting Ukraine. Australia hasn't been banned, but Qantas has opted not to route via Russian airspace.
Ukraine airspace has been closed since Feb 2022 due to Russia's invasion. Airspace in Moldova near the Ukraine border is also closed due to Russia.
The Simferopol FIR (Crimea), which controls half the Black Sea, has been closed since 2014 due to both Russia and Ukraine attempting to control that airspace.
Syria is under do not fly listings from the US, UK, Canada, Germany, Italy and France.
Yeman is also under do not fly listings by the above, with some allowances for oceanic routes within Yeman controlled airspace.
Iraq has warned of GPS jamming in the north. US, UK, Canada, Germany, Italy and France have again listed the the Baghdad FIR as do not enter, again with some allowance to fly above FL320. (Germany says FL280 and South Africa says FL300)
US, UK, Germany, and Canada are also saying not to enter Tehran FIR (Iran). US also says to be careful around the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman. France says not to fly over western Iran, Eastern Iran over FL320. Italy says don't fly in Iran below FL320.

There are also similar warnings for airspace in Egypt, Sudan and Libya.

If things get worse around the middle east, even the current QF1/2/9/10 routes might have problems.

If it comes to that, and all of the ME is off limits, and all of Russia, the world is going to have much bigger problems than QF's sunrise services.

Effectively will stop air routes between Europe & Asia/Pacific. QF will be scrambling to get extra US or Canadian slots to go via the Atlantic.

 

[p--and--t]

If it comes to that, and all of the ME is off limits, and all of Russia, the world is going to have much bigger problems than QF's sunrise services.

Effectively will stop air routes between Europe & Asia/Pacific. QF will be scrambling to get extra US or Canadian slots to go via the Atlantic.

.. or a new flurry of flights via J’burg or Capetown??

 

[justinbrett]

.. or a new flurry of flights via J’burg or Capetown??

The ZA ASA doesn't allow for this. Australian airlines can only fly onward to HRE or South America.

 

[p--and--t]

The ZA ASA doesn't CURRENTLY allow for this. Australian airlines can only fly onward to HRE or South America.

I slightly amended above.

I’m pretty sure if all traffic between Asia and EU was halted by a shut down of the ME airspace all the cards would on the table and plenty of urgent intergovernmental talks.

While I have no actual knowledge of same my presumption is slots would be easy to get in that direction than overcrowded airports in murica.

 

[SYD]

It's barely a detour to stop into SIN on the GC route between SYD-DXB (+52 miles, or 0.8% longer). Not even worth a consideration due to other factors like winds and availability of air routes.

Agree, and my earlier point and supported by the numbers (see below), if not Mercator (he has a lot to answer for - Greenland!).

But start swinging further south and 3 to 4.5% distance extra does start to eat into design contingencies.

 

[dajop]

If it comes to that, and all of the ME is off limits, and all of Russia, the world is going to have much bigger problems than QF's sunrise services.

Effectively will stop air routes between Europe & Asia/Pacific. QF will be scrambling to get extra US or Canadian slots to go via the Atlantic.

A great opportunity for ET and ADD

 

[justinbrett]

Agree, and my earlier point and supported by the numbers (see below), if not Mercator (he has a lot to answer for - Greenland!).

But start swinging further south and 3 to 4.5% distance extra does start to eat into design contingencies.

View attachment 368272

Sure, but QF has been going the long way from SIN-LHR for quite a while now, so if you take the current route of flying over UAE, the SIN stop is pretty irrelevant.

And I hope I didn't give the impression SYD-LHR would go via PER. I was talking about the route over Eurasia.

I slightly amended above.

I’m pretty sure if all traffic between Asia and EU was halted by a shut down of the ME airspace all the cards would on the table and plenty of urgent intergovernmental talks.

While I have no actual knowledge of same my presumption is slots would be easy to get in that direction than overcrowded airports in murica.

I think you'd find CPT & JNB (and others) would fill up faster than US/CA airports, just by the massive number of widebody capable airports in North America (many of which have 4x runways or more).

Most likely LAX, DFW, JFK etc would be out of the picture, but plenty of others to stop for fuel at.

 

[Himeno]

Most likely LAX, DFW, JFK etc would be out of the picture, but plenty of others to stop for fuel at.

and EU-Asia flights would resume flying via ANC like they did 30 years ago.