Qantas Project Sunrise goes ahead, 12 new A350-1000s ordered

[RSVKanga]

Not everyone wants to fly into those 4 or 5 ports and many people actually prefer avoiding them.

I think there is only a maximum of four people flying between Adelaide and Sofia every year, and of course stopovers will remain for those incredibly niche markets. You need to consider the economics. The majority of the Australian population lives in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth - and the most popular European cities for Australians are LHR, CDG, FCO, FRA etc - the big ones. So Sunrise will benefit the majority of the Australian population, and probably the other way around as well with the European population.

What I'm saying is that travel between major Australian east coast cities and major European cities like LHR, CDG and FRA still require stopovers, and I think those stopovers for those routes will lose a lot of popularity when Sunrise launches. And I think it's safe to say those routings make up a large portion of travel in the Australia-Europe corridor currently.

 

[jase05]

I think there is only a maximum of four people flying between Adelaide and Sofia every year, and of course stopovers will remain for those incredibly niche markets. You need to consider the economics. The majority of the Australian population lives in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth - and the most popular European cities for Australians are LHR, CDG, FCO, FRA etc - the big ones. So Sunrise will benefit the majority of the Australian population, and probably the other way around as well with the European population.

What I'm saying is that travel between major Australian east coast cities and major European cities like LHR, CDG and FRA still require stopovers, and I think those stopovers will be killed when Sunrise launches. And I think it's safe to say those routings make up a large portion of travel in the Australia-Europe corridor currently.

There are stacks of Australians who go elsewhere in Europe hence why Emirates in particular is so popular as they have so many destinations from Dubai.
There will be plenty who fly the direct QF but I doubt the ME are shaking in their boots at the prospect as they will still offer a better product and most likely at a better price so price is still often the decider for many. Believe it or not there are still plenty of people who do like breaking the trip up too. 17 hours straight in J doesn’t appeal to me so you couldn’t pay me enough to fly in Y for that length
You are also forgetting that QF is going to have only a limited amount of daily flights too so hardly enough to make a big dent in the others

 

[SCM]

I think the biggest competition for QF will actually be when Turkish Airlines flies nonstop to Istanbul which they will do at least from MEL and SYD. They are by far the best connected airline in terms of European destinations, and will be an absolute game-changer, better than any current transit airline, and far better than QF + partners.

If you think about it, flying to Istanbul is basically like flying to Europe, plus you get connections to absolutely everywhere - which you would have to hassle with if you were flying QF, and you won't even get as many - plus it will be a more direct path to anywhere in Europe. The issue with CDG and LHR is they are a bit out of the way on the West, meaning the majority of European airports are further east, so you are wasting time flying so far away.

Once again, doesn't mean Qantas can't fill some planes some times, but I just doubt it will be such a game-changer for Qantas as people think, I think they will really struggle to make much money from it - especially in the premium cabins.


I want to add another point - if you've been following travel news lately, you see that western Europe is basically "at full capacity" for tourism. The future of tourism growth lies in central and eastern Europe (for that part of the world). Qantas is very backwards thinking in this regard, and once again - I believe TK will benefit the most, since they have an established presence in so many airports where nobody else does (flying from AU).

 

[RooFlyer]

Who still flies two-stop between Australia and Europe, which was once the norm before technology improved?

Many, as has been pointed out numerous times in this and other threads.

I think there is only a maximum of four people flying between Adelaide and Sofia every year, and of course stopovers will remain for those incredibly niche markets

Actually, there are quite a few 'niche markets' serviced by the ME3 and TK. There must be something in it, doncha think?



Compared to the niche markets served by another certain airline.



The origin of 3 out of 4 these flights, Perth, could also be described as a niche market, probably more niche than Sofia (being as Perth is, isolated on the western margin of a sparsely populated continent)



Maps from flightconnections.com

 

[marcojim]

New article in ET has VH claiming that the second group of A350-1000 deliveries (the non-ULR versions) will feature three classes (as opposed to the four-class ULR aircraft).

A350 to become Qantas’ new flagship

The long-range Airbus jets will carry the iconic Flying Kangaroo tail to all corners of the world.

www.executivetraveller.com

 

[downgraded]

Yes. How much is saving about 4 hours flying time worth? $2K? $4K? $more? The newcomers will undercut to get market share and deliver pax to exactly where they want to go. I can't wait to try Riyad

European cities for Australians are LHR, CDG, FCO, FRA etc

LHR <> London <> UK.
No doubt sunrise might fulfil a tiny niche but of those who fly to LHR at the moment, how many actually just go to London? Hub and spoke allows people to get to where they want to go. It's like suggesting that those who really want to go Perth-Canberra instead fly to Sydney then drive to Canberra. Even QF operates a hub and spoke model out of Sydney, and it is proposed Perth.

 

[justinbrett]

Many, as has been pointed out numerous times in this and other threads.



Actually, there are quite a few 'niche markets' serviced by the ME3 and TK. There must be something in it, doncha think?

View attachment 398180

Compared to the niche markets served by another certain airline.

View attachment 398181

The origin of 3 out of 4 these flights, Perth, could also be described as a niche market, probably more niche than Sofia (being as Perth is, isolated on the western margin of a sparsely populated continent)

View attachment 398182

Maps from flightconnections.com

Except Sofia gets about one million visitors per year. Perth gets about 30 million visitors per year.

But I do agree the Gulf airlines do serve the smaller markets, and while ADL-SOF might only get 4 pax per year, every other combination of origin and destination makes the setup worthwhile. But that's a market for those airlines, and not one that should be pursued by European and Australian airlines. QF has the right strategy of flying to the major centres itself and codesharing with EK for the rest.

LHR <> London <> UK.
No doubt sunrise might fulfil a tiny niche but of those who fly to LHR at the moment, how many actually just go to London?

I'd say a huge number. Business trips are usually in the major cities (London, Paris, Rome etc). Tourists may not spend their whole trip in the one destination but it will make up an important part of it and probably proceed on rail or cheap flights (Ryanair etc) from there.

To say it's a tiny niche of pax flying from SYD-LHR is laughable.

 

[RooFlyer]

Except Sofia gets about one million visitors per year. Perth gets about 30 million visitors per year.

Thanks, I was meaning to look those up.

I’m shocked at the high Perth number though - abt 30 million visitors. Perth Airport records about 16 million passenger movements per year so you assume that’s about 8 million individuals. Of that, 16 million, 6 million are regional ( including FIFO I guess). So 5 million interstate and international visitors -still a big number.

Certainly agree that Qantas has chosen key markets for the initial direct flights. The point being made by me and others is that the transit Middle East route to a European destination is not a small or niche market. Perfectly served by ME3 and TK and attractive to those jnot wishing to fly to the big hubs and then fly on somewhere. Except for FCO they double back into Europe.

 

[moa999]

think the biggest competition for QF will actually be when Turkish Airlines flies nonstop to Istanbul which they will do at least from MEL and SYD. They are by far the best connected airline in terms of European destinations

I would see Turkish more as competition to the ME3, the CN3 and all the Asia Pac airlines who already provide lots of connections.

A quick Google tells me Turkish fly to 112 European destinations versus on a quick count about 60 for Emirates.. but I suspect passenger count wise the difference is nothing like that.

 

[encryptededdy]

New article in ET has VH claiming that the second group of A350-1000 deliveries (the non-ULR versions) will feature three classes (as opposed to the four-class ULR aircraft).

A350 to become Qantas’ new flagship

The long-range Airbus jets will carry the iconic Flying Kangaroo tail to all corners of the world.

www.executivetraveller.com

Hmm.

However, Hudson says no decision has been made on if these A350-1000LR jets will have the same generous legroom as the Project Sunrise fleet.

This sees premium economy with a 40” pitch (two inches more than. premium economy on a 787) and economy seats with a 33” pitch (one inch more than on a 787).

“We’re still working through that,” Hudson shares. “We will look at that when we get closer. But premium economy is such a popular cabin, and we could look at putting (more seats) in premium economy.”

I think when she says "We're still working through that", she means it won't be 40" pitch.

Even though 38" isn't uncommon among Qantas' peers in W, it's still disappointing but perhaps unsurprising.

 

[justinbrett]

Thanks, I was meaning to look those up.

I’m shocked at the high Perth number though - abt 30 million visitors. Perth Airport records about 16 million passenger movements per year so you assume that’s about 8 million individuals. Of that, 16 million, 6 million are regional ( including FIFO I guess). So 5 million interstate and international visitors -still a big number.

Certainly agree that Qantas has chosen key markets for the initial direct flights. The point being made by me and others is that the transit Middle East route to a European destination is not a small or niche market. Perfectly served by ME3 and TK and attractive to those jnot wishing to fly to the big hubs and then fly on somewhere. Except for FCO they double back into Europe.

Sorry, just saw those are WA visitors, not just Perth, so those pax would be spread out over other regional airports, and of course extra pax into PER via rail, cruiseships, road etc. Doesn't really matter the scale, point is PER is a major drawcard for European tourists especially as it's on their way in (like LAX/SFO is for us going to US). So it's definitely not a niche market, and if anything the more isolated a destination the less niche it becomes, due to lack of other options (whereas there's uncountable other ways to get to SOF from Australia).

The Gulf airlines are flying hub and spoke, which works for some, the Australian/European/US airlines are moving to thin routes which are proving very popular. I'd say both will co-exist, and QF is smart to have a foot in each camp. However QF moving out of DXB tells me there were enough pax not happy with the Gulf option for them to move back to SIN.

 

[OATEK]

I think there is only a maximum of four people flying between Adelaide and Sofia every year, and of course stopovers will remain for those incredibly niche markets. You need to consider the economics. The majority of the Australian population lives in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth - and the most popular European cities for Australians are LHR, CDG, FCO, FRA etc - the big ones. So Sunrise will benefit the majority of the Australian population, and probably the other way around as well with the European population.

What I'm saying is that travel between major Australian east coast cities and major European cities like LHR, CDG and FRA still require stopovers, and I think those stopovers for those routes will lose a lot of popularity when Sunrise launches. And I think it's safe to say those routings make up a large portion of travel in the Australia-Europe corridor currently.

We are happy to fly 2 stops to UK/EU, because we can travel in a combination of J (paid) and PE (points), and spend under $6K each, using EK (paid) and QF (points). We were doing 2 stop with AY in J regularly before Covid (via HKG/HEL to UK/EU) and so are quite attuned to the mode. Based in SYD non-stop would only ever appeal if cheaper than 1 or 2 stop (which it won't be). And we fly at least once and often twice a year given our daughter and her family live in the UK.

We have done the 17hr flights, QF 1/2 to/from DRW and QF10 to PER, and while we survived comfortably we would prefer shorter flights over all, and with a stop over on the way home. Now that we have nearly burned our 700k QF points, we are even prepared to try ScootPlus to SIN to connect to the cheaper ME flights from there.

So Project Sunrise has zero appeal to us and most of the regular travellers we talk to, and looks like being the niche market if I am honest. Just talking to some Aussies of Greek Cypriot background today about their upcoming trip to Cyprus to catch up with family, and they were saying QR to Doha and then 3.5hrs on to Cyprus was they way to go.

And I am not a QF hater, but I just can't afford them most of the time, and given the quality of the flights we have had with EK, then QF would have to be a lot cheaper in any head to head matchup.

 

[Saab34]

Turkish can do about 5 Daily flights looking at what was granted, they are a few years away from suitable aircraft however.

That is ALOT of capacity. Then you have the likes of Riyadh Air still to come. I think Summer/Peak will always be busy, but off peak might start facing some overcapacity.

QF will always have the monopoly on its Sunrise and Perth directs, obvious risk is if pricing really starts coming down, it’s going to be hard to push a price premium for the non stops if they are double the price. I would pay a few extra hundred bucks, but certainly not $500-1000+ extra for a nonstop. Especially in Y.

Pricing coming down with the product standard only increasing is only good news for us pax.

 

[OZDUCK]

It has actually been relatively unusual for us to fly one stop to our European destination in the last 10 years or so. A quick cheapish jump to Singapore then a connection via Doha, Helsinki or Vietnam has been the norm. This usually saves us at least 40% compared to a one stop J flight from Perth. I am quite happy to have a 'free' day or so in Singapore or Helsinki instead of a 17 hour flight. However as always our sort of itinerary may not suit others.

 

[RSVKanga]

Many, as has been pointed out numerous times in this and other threads.

We are happy to fly 2 stops to UK/EU

It has actually been relatively unusual for us to fly one stop to our European destination

I think people here need to acknowledge that the amount of people on AFF happy flying two-stop to Europe in J/F is severely disproportionate to the amount of people actually doing this in the Australia-Europe corridor, which as you know comprises frequent and infrequent travellers in all four classes in both directions When you look at the whole Australia-Europe corridor, how many people fly these exotic two-stop/RTW routings to Europe? 1%? These two-stops are for leisure purposes (no longer the norm) and go against the idea of A-to-B travel when we have improved technology.


Qantas axed its 5 stop Sydney-Singapore-Calcutta-Karachi-Cairo-Rome-London 707 service when improved technology (747-200B) allowed for the route to be flown in only two stops, and consumers adopted that as the norm.

Qantas axed its 2 stop Sydney-Singapore-Bahrain-London 747-200B service when improved technology (747-400) allowed for one stop Sydney-Singapore-London, and consumers adopted that as the norm.

So I fully expect consumers to adopt Sunrise as the norm for people travelling to major European cities. Perth residents have embraced QF9 as the norm to get to LHR, and vice versa. I expect SYD-SIN-LHR to remain, probably on a standard A350, but it could be repositioned purely into a revenue service tapping into the Asian market, similar EK's DXB-SIN-MEL service, as opposed to a fuel stop. And as other people have pointed out, PER is also likely to remain as it's similar to Australians visiting California (business, tourist and transit destination) before travelling to the eastern USA, fundamentally different to a transit-oriented stopover in a different country. So it's all in Qantas' favour I think.

Actually, there are quite a few 'niche markets' serviced

You completely misunderstood the statement. I was saying that the Adelaide-Sofia corridor is an extremely niche market, with a estimated maximum of four people travelling that route every year.

 

[jase05]

You completely misunderstood the statement. I was saying that the Adelaide-Sofia corridor is an extremely niche market, with an estimated maximum of four people travelling that route every year.

I’m not one of them but I have flown into ZRH and AMS, VIE, PRG and MXP a number of times as it’s less backtracking and often cheaper than going through LHR for example. If I visit rellies in the UK we do prefer to fly into MAN if possible.
Each to their own though, just because I most likely won’t partake in Sunrise it doesn’t mean many others don’t

 

[justinbrett]

Important to remember there’s 1.1 million Australian residents born in the UK, let alone the number of second and third generations.

Also approximately 98% of London bartenders are Australian

 

[OATEK]

So I fully expect consumers to adopt Sunrise as the norm for people travelling to major European cities. Perth residents have embraced QF9 as the norm to get to LHR, and vice versa. I expect SYD-SIN-LHR to remain, probably on a standard A350, but it could be repositioned purely into a revenue service tapping into the Asian market, similar EK's DXB-SIN-MEL service, as opposed to a fuel stop. And as other people have pointed out, PER is also likely to remain as it's similar to Australians visiting California (business, tourist and transit destination) before travelling to the eastern USA, fundamentally different to a transit-oriented stopover in a different country. So it's all in Qantas' favour I think.

I appreciate your optimism, something along the line of the field of dream quote about building it and people will come. When you dissect it, the sunrise flights will carry a tiny proportion of travellers heading from AU to EU/UK/US, so whether that really ends up in QF's favour will depend on the economics. Personally, I remain both unconvinced, and content to avoid those flights unless they are cheaper than multi-stop.

And as I said in the quoted post, most people I talk to who travel, 99% of them not on AFF, remain unconvinced and uninterested in the non-stop flights.

 

[SYD]

Important to remember there’s 1.1 million Australian residents born in the UK, let alone the number of second and third generations.

Also approximately 98% of London bartenders are Australian

Part the reason BA still flies through daily.

 

[justinbrett]

When you dissect it, the sunrise flights will carry a tiny proportion of travellers heading from AU to EU/UK/US, so whether that really ends up in QF's favour will depend on the economics. Personally, I remain both unconvinced, and content to avoid those flights unless they are cheaper than multi-stop.

But when you look now, a lot of pax are flying to DFW and JFK via AKL. Years ago those pax where flying into LAX - and before that HNL. And of course, we now have PER-LHR/FCO/CDG.

I think there is a fair bit of small think in this thread, that things and market forces will always remain as they are. I don't think sunrise will kill the Gulf / Asian carriers but I do think it will be a premium service highly sought after, and they'll have no trouble filling the planes.