Qantas slashing jobs and possibly selling FF program?

[maninblack]

Having two A380s within hours of each other on the short hop is always going to be problematic, the expectation they would pick up traffic in DXB is somewhat ludicrous given the presence of two strong competitors in the UAE. It would make more sense sending one to another country, like FRA, especially given the opportunity to also get servicing done.

Right and so many members of the forum speculated on this when QF got into bed with Emirates, scratched heads and wondered about the whole Dubai strategy and how it would work. I still am...scratching my head that is.

 

[Ansett]

Now heres a thought why not leave QF1 as going through DXB and change QF9 to go through Singapore? This gives the opportunity to regain marketshare on that run and through to UK and Europe. Also provides opportunities to open up codeshare arrangements again.

Make QF9 a night flight to Singapore as no restrictions in Melbourne, and a mid morning departure from SIN to LHR which should give a mid morning arrival into London and enable an early afternoon departure arriving back in Singapore at around `8 am thus giving European customers a good option into Singapore to do business for the day then a choice of flights on to Australia..

From Singapore to Melbourne that gives the option of a return morning flight on QF9 arriving early evening or an eveniong flight on QF36.

Now to me that would be a better solution. I would suggest better loadings and a happier flying public,

 

[777]

The problem with Dubai is that it's not a Qantas hub, it's an Emirates one.

They are missing the aircraft they need to turn it into an actual hub unless they get 787s, 777s, A350s (they could possibly run some A330s from PER). A smaller, long range aircraft, would allow them to feed their "hub" in DXB from BNE, ADL, PER and potentially on to select other European destinations such as Germany (where they can code share with Emirates because EK don't have the traffic rights they need) to fly their metal to if they see any point in it.

At the moment they have a "hub" that is out of the range of most of their international fleet, that flies over most of the destinations that many of their travellers want to go to (Asia), and they don't even have a single plane on confirmed order that can actually reach it from 90% of Australia.

 

[cove]

That is actually a very good idea. None of our Jewish friends will ever go to Dubai so a Singapore solution should have remained.
There have been a few mistakes made and QFI market share is unlikely to grow any time soon.

 

[maninblack]

That is actually a very good idea. None of our Jewish friends will ever go to Dubai so a Singapore solution should have remained.
There have been a few mistakes made and QFI market share is unlikely to grow any time soon.

Plenty of Jewish people fly through Dubai and also fly EK (though I think many don't) but I suspect most just transit and move on! Israeli passport holders cannot enter Dubai so I doubt many even risk a transit, mind you Malaysia is the same.

Regarding market share, hard to see any growth prospects for QF at all on their current strategy and pricing.

 

[Awesom Andy]

If they turn back QF9 at DXB (and leave QF1 going to LHR), would they have enough A380s to make QF127/128 a daily A380 and retire another 747?

 

[maninblack]

Indeed. QFi should probably dump all their routes except for trans-pacific which they could expand and dominate.

Buy inventory on other carriers as codeshare for all the rest of it. Not much profit in it but cuts the losses where they cannot and probably never will be able to compete again.

 

[codash1099]

Plenty of Jewish people fly through Dubai and also fly EK (though I think many don't) but I suspect most just transit and move on! Israeli passport holders cannot enter Dubai so I doubt many even risk a transit, mind you Malaysia is the same.

Well I don't (I may be the token Jew on this forum) and I don't consider Malaysia in quite the same light as the M.E. countries. I've switched my Europe flights from PER to BA at this stage. Some of their fares are pretty good.

 

[cmon0005]

If they turn back QF9 at DXB (and leave QF1 going to LHR), would they have enough A380s to make QF127/128 a daily A380 and retire another 747?

I'd rather them put the 380 on a MEL-KUL or SYD-KUL, for onwards codeshare connections around Asia with OW partner Malaysia Airlines (MH).
Also they should do a reverse codeshare with MH pax flying on QF metal to AUST, MH can then drop a flight or two of theirs and help fill up the QF 380.

 

[eastwest101]

I'd rather them put the 380 on a MEL-KUL or SYD-KUL, for onwards codeshare connections around Asia with OW partner Malaysia Airlines (MH).
Also they should do a reverse codeshare with MH pax flying on QF metal to AUST, MH can then drop a flight or two of theirs and help fill up the QF 380.

Good idea using the current fleet but unlikely to happen as that would require actual co-ordination and planning with a OW partner. MH are doing great in Australia (they essentially have had the entire ADL market given to them and to SQ) so really not much in it for MH maybe?

Probably easier finding a solution that works with the current QFi fleet, even if QF had a fleet planning revolution tomorrow it would take at least 5 years to begin to get the right mix of size/range and efficiency equipment that it needs to compete with the world. I still find it surprising that we have just gone through a record period of a high AUD and the Fleet Planning/Acquisitions people have gone missing.

 

[Pleb Status]

It cannot be long before all QFi services from SYD/MEL to Europe v.v are abolished if QF is serious about cost cutting. I cannot see how they are making money with J class fares ex Europe to Australia being less than AUD4800 return (like my last two bookings directly from the QF website). QFi does not service PER and ADL at all now (and BNE to a lessor extent) and the SYD and MEL services are really for 'prestige' only. It is too late, and most likely contractually impossible, to restart Europe services via Asia.

If you are European with no ties directly to QF, you are most likely to book on EK direct due to slightly better fares and better schedules. Even if you are a European OW FF, you are better off flying BA, QR or CX to Australia ensure you earn all your OW benefits (over the forced EK codeshares).

The A380 freed up can be put onto existing 744 routes to the US and/or Asia where the competition with EK/QR/EY is less.

 

[777]

The A380 freed up can be put onto existing 744 routes to the US and/or Asia where the competition with EK/QR/EY is less.

The problem with that is that QF has lost their pricing power to the US (VA, UA and DL are serious competitors compared to the duopoly of a few years back) and the yields/ numbers aren't there for the massive increase in capacity to JNB and SCL.

 

[Pleb Status]

The problem with that is that QF has lost their pricing power to the US (VA, UA and DL are serious competitors compared to the duopoly of a few years back) and the yields/ numbers aren't there for the massive increase in capacity to JNB and SCL.

I agree but at least QFi's competitors to the US and Asia are not flooding the market with extra capacity to the same extent as the ME3. I notice that QR had J fares from DPS to FRA for under USD3000 rtn recently. Either QR are not making money on that or we are being ripped off big time ex Australia (I would say the answer is a bit of both). It is only a matter of time before a real J/F class fare war starts ex Australia (fares <AUD4500 rtn) and the losses will really start to mount up over time. Does QFi want to be a part of that?

 

[777]

I agree but at least QFi's competitors to the US and Asia are not flooding the market with extra capacity to the same extent as the ME3. I notice that QR had J fares from DPS to FRA for under USD3000 rtn recently. Either QR are not making money on that or we are being ripped off big time ex Australia (I would say the answer is a bit of both). It is only a matter of time before a real J/F class fare war starts ex Australia (fares <AUD4500 rtn) and the losses will really start to mount up over time. Does QFi want to be a part of that?

That could be as simple as QR make good $$ up the back of the plane on what is essentially a leisure not a business route. Hard to tell.

You're right though that Qantas seem to have lost pricing power spectacularly ex-Europe. I have looked at a lot of ex-Europe fares of late and Qantas keeps coming up cheapest most of the time.

... the simple problem though is the A380 is too big an aircraft for decent yield and nothing else in their fleet have the range to reach their offshore "hubs".

 

[maninblack]

A380's
SYD/MEL/BNE-LAX
SYD-DFW

744ER's
SYD-SFO (maybe)
LAX-JFK

A330's
SYD/MEL/BNE-HNL

Remnants to SIN/BKK/HKG (maybe)

QFi product allround still coughs on DL/VA/UA/HA, so go where you can win.

 

[Timba-Jet]

The transpacific routes, both North America and South America is the only market where Qantas beats it foreign competition hands down on service and product, it can sustain a premium (not too much) price point relative to the likes of UA and LA.

Plus no frequency issues like the Asian routed where SQ, CX, MH offer at least double if not triple the flights QF do.

IF Dubai is not turning around QFi as expected and the subsequent impact to SIN route is causing mass losses, I really of hope QF exec reconsider an Asian hub again - it would take lots of guts to say we/I got it wrong.

 

[maninblack]

it would take lots of guts to say we/I got it wrong.

Or a new Chairman and CEO

 

[Happy Trails]

Remnants to SIN/BKK/HKG (maybe)

Thanking you kindly sir (doffs cap and tugs forelock).
Ever so grateful to receive any crumbs from the table.

 

[dk4]

Or a new Chairman and CEO

Hearing rumours that the CEO is already a dead man walking, discussions in various quarters on NYE are set to decide if the chair needs to be executed as well, or deserves a face saving retreat. But the chair still has some good connections, so possible scenario shaping up is seeing the CEO scapegoated out the door to herald a fresh new direction, followed by the chair leaving some time afterwards "of his own accord"?

 

[MEL_Traveller]

did qantas make the right decision on its seating layout for the A380 and 747 refurb? If you do a quick comparison between QF and EK it seems EK gets an extra 12 business class seats than Qantas in the upper deck cabin between upper deck doors 1 and 2 (ie the middle cabin).

There are few airlines that have adopted a full flat 76' pitch without some herringbone or staggered layout.

Their 747 could also perhaps have been configured with a higher density by using a more appropriate seating layout.