Qantas - what will Coronavirus mean in the medium term?

[drron]

Until May, AA's longhaul schedule is as follows:
DFW-NRT
DFW-LHR
MIA-LHR

That is all.

If that's what AA's schedule is - I can't imagine Qantas will be any better. My guess is SYD-LAX, PER-LHR and maybe an Asian route (perhaps SYD-SIN).

People need to come to grips with how serious this is - the world is shutting down.

The question is over domestic routes. At the moment there's no government warnings over domestic travel. But I expect a significant reduction in frequency.

AA have announced that they will be retiring their 767's and 757's early as part of this shutdown.

 

[jase05]

Wonder if that will be the end of QF’s 747’s

 

[pauly7]

Redirecting

Some pretty dramatic ‘rumours’....QF: SFO and Santiago paused, London paused, 747’s grounded, most A330s grounded.

VA: downgraded, reported to be tapping parents for money, might be restructured to end international forever.

Sounds like a sweeping bag of gossip to cover all bases but we will see!

 

[Melburnian1]

Redirecting

Some pretty dramatic ‘rumours’....QF: SFO and Santiago paused, London paused, 747’s grounded, most A330s grounded.

Although Qantas CEO has repeatedly praised the PER - LHR QF9/10 for being popular, wasn't the LHR route overall (by that I mean including via SIN 'the 1/the 2') losing money well before the virus?

What would QFi use to JNB if the B744s were all pensioned off? Do the B789s have CASA approval to operate over water (ETOD or whatever is the 'new ETOPS') for that length of trip yet?

 

[justinbrett]

Redirecting

Some pretty dramatic ‘rumours’....QF: SFO and Santiago paused, London paused, 747’s grounded, most A330s grounded.

VA: downgraded, reported to be tapping parents for money, might be restructured to end international forever.

Sounds like a sweeping bag of gossip to cover all bases but we will see!

I don't think that's dramatic at all - I don't think those cuts would be even the tip of the iceberg.

However I am thinking PER-LHR has a better chance of surviving than some of these other routes (including SYD-JNB), but time will tell. Take airlines aside, the vast majority of longhaul travel to/from Australia is to the UK and to the USA. Those are the two markets that should be the last to fall - and considering QF will be the only carrier operating direct services to the UK (vice going through Asia / UAE) it will be the most attractive option for those trying to avoid unnecessary stopovers in the midst of this virus.

 

[moa999]

Reportedly article in Australian suggesting more QF international cuts (not unsurprising with the quarantine)
Reportedly includes all A380s, 747s and most 330s.

 

[pauly7]

I don't think that's dramatic at all - I don't think those cuts would be even the tip of the iceberg.

However I am thinking PER-LHR has a better chance of surviving than some of these other routes (including SYD-JNB), but time will tell. Take airlines aside, the vast majority of longhaul travel to/from Australia is to the UK and to the USA. Those are the two markets that should be the last to fall - and considering QF will be the only carrier operating direct services to the UK (vice going through Asia / UAE) it will be the most attractive option for those trying to avoid unnecessary stopovers in the midst of this virus.

With the UK Government response I’d probably personally rather travel to China to be honest

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Qantas and Jetstar cutting 90% international and 60% domestic through to May

 

[sevenfourtyseven]

Might be the last we see of the Queen in QF colours

 

[jakeseven7]

Qantas and Jetstar slash 90 per cent of international flights

Qantas and Jetstar are cutting international flights by 90 per cent and domestic flights by 60 per cent, as the airline group struggles with a drop in travel demand due to coronavirus.

www.abc.net.au

VA to follow...

They will literally be parking them at the gates...

 

[TomJones]

A 90% reduction in intl would mean only 6-7 widebody aircraft operating across JQ and QF, down from 60odd?

That's basically a complete shutdown.

 

[Melburnian1]

The release on the QF website doesn't go into detail as to which international routes will still operate.

Will there be pressure on airports to reduce their daily charges for having aircraft 'parked' (stabled) on airfields?

Except for wartime or a very occasional pilots' strike or lockout, this action by QFi/QFd is unprecedented in Australia.

 

[Must...Fly!]

The release on the QF website doesn't go into detail as to which international routes will still operate.

Will there be pressure on airports to reduce their daily charges for having aircraft 'parked' (stabled) on airfields?

Except for wartime or a very occasional pilots' strike or lockout, this action by QFi/QFd is unprecedented in Australia.

It's unprecedented everywhere. This is the first major global pandemic in the aviation era.

 

[jakeseven7]

A 90% reduction in intl would mean only 6-7 widebody aircraft operating across JQ and QF, down from 60odd?

That's basically a complete shutdown.

Why is VA hanging back, they will be losing money hand over fist....

 

[Must...Fly!]

Why is VA hanging back, they will be losing money hand over fist....

I don't think they're hanging back.

It's a hugely complicated picture and overly complicated by the fact their call centre is hugely down in number because of the Philippines quarantine orders.

 

[Melburnian1]

Why is VA hanging back, they will be losing money hand over fist....

Maybe with up to 750 admin staff having lost their jobs, they have fewer individuals to calculate what has to occur.

And QFi/QFd has acknowledged that it will announce more specifics in coming days as it takes time to work through all the changes.

 

[Bundy Bear]

This has got serious; I am surprised that Qantas are taking 2 weeks to make the changes.
Close, Melbourne, Gold Coast, Adelaide international airports.
From Sydney just fly to Auckland, LA, Tokyo, Singapore, Hong Kong.
And London from Perth but if UK is shut down could take a few weeks break.
Go hourly Melbourne-Sydney,, 2hourly between Brisbane and Sydney/Melbourne, once a day to other ports.
Maybe Virgin will stop completely.

 

[Melburnian1]

Are airlines such as Qantas and Virgin Australia and/or travel agents like Flight Centre in these circumstances contravening Australian consumer law by only offering 'travel credits' rather than a full refund?

In many cases, airlines are no longer providing a flight (or forcing passengers to radically change their plans.)

Of course the airlines want to retain cashflow, but given travel insurers often won't cover pandemics, many individuals may be substantially out of pocket, and travel credits won't suit all.

 

[dajop]

Of course the airlines want to retain cashflow, but given travel insurers often won't cover pandemics, many individuals may be substantially out of pocket, and travel credits won't suit all.

Well if they provide cash refunds to everyone, what in theory could happen is that the first 1/3 (1/2?) of people cancelling get their cash refund and the remainder don’t get anything at all - as the airline goes bust, and employees will be substantially out of a job.

These are unprecedented times we probably all need to share the pain ...

 

[HS-TQE]

Why is VA hanging back, they will be losing money hand over fist....

Fairly sure VA are working through their international partnership arrangements, and also "interim" arrangements of their TransPac arrangement with DL (It's been suggested by analysts that the flights by DL/VA will be reduced from x25 weekly flights by VA/DL to a daily DL flight (x7 weekly) from SYD).

Also related: VA knows their "parents" have financial problems of their own to come help per VA's own ASX release on their assessment as a B- by S&P.