Qantas - what will Coronavirus mean in the medium term?

[jb747]

Let's hope the crew member wasn't socialising with other QFi crew in London (who weren't on his or her flight) prior to going to the airport.

QFi crew don’t socialise.

Sadly you let your dislike of QF colour everything you say. I’m sure that if you had a actual need to know anything about the flight, then you’d have been told.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Qantas will announce new cuts by week's end in response to the travel restrictions. Get ready for more itinerary changes and cancellations.

 

[Jaded_Elf]

I noticed some flights between MEL and SYD are scheduled to be operated by B787 - even before the suspension of SFO so is it already underutilised?

That could be for training - i think there was a recent ground school? But...i wouldn't want to be catching the Dreamliner on any domestic route, as aircrew don't have to isolate if they've been on positioning/working routes overseas.

 

[AIRwin]

But...i wouldn't want to be catching the Dreamliner on any domestic route, as aircrew don't have to isolate if they've been on positioning/working routes overseas.

Thanks I didn't even think of that...

 

[eastwest101]

Could it be possible that Qantas decide to keep at least 1 example of each type flying (i.e. min of 1x A380, 1x B744, 1x A330, 1x B789, 1 x B738 and 1 x B717) just to share around the flying and keep pilots current? Even if it means some of these doing a few minimum domestic runs just to keep a workforce current? Yes, even the B744....unless they announce a retirement of the type being brought forward in the next few days. Might be cheaper than everyone's licence lapsing and not having enough simulator/training capacity to relaunch once the COVID-19 flight restrictions are lifted?

 

[PineappleSkip]

Qantas will announce new cuts by week's end in response to the travel restrictions. Get ready for more itinerary changes and cancellations.

In addition to the unannounced ad hoc cuts.... Was booked on QF516 SYD-BNE this morning, cancelled overnight. This was the sixth cancellation, second by QF on this sector, of my journey home prior to 14 days purgatory

cheers skip

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

My BNE-SYD was cut yesterday too. I think there will be significant reductions on the golden triangle routes.

 

[Melburnian1]

Could it be possible that Qantas decide to keep at least 1 example of each type flying (i.e. min of 1x A380, 1x B744, 1x A330, 1x B789, 1 x B738 and 1 x B717) just to share around the flying and keep pilots current? Even if it means some of these doing a few minimum domestic runs just to keep a workforce current? Yes, even the B744....unless they announce a retirement of the type being brought forward in the next few days. Might be cheaper than everyone's licence lapsing and not having enough simulator/training capacity to relaunch once the COVID-19 flight restrictions are lifted?

One way to do this would be to have flights from MEL to AVV and return, although it has the disadvantage that SYD not MEL is the hub for many QF aircraft models. Can't think of a shorter possible sector in Oz between two non-military airfields with lengthy runways. (MEL - MEB impractical from a 'traffic' perspective?)

 

[Melburnian1]

Qantas will announce new cuts by week's end in response to the travel restrictions. Get ready for more itinerary changes and cancellations.

Can you give a few clues? Mainly just frequency reductions, or route cancellations?

Is the delay from today (when you seem to know about these) simply because it takes time to work out exactly what the airline wants to achieve, as it has to closely examine booking trends?

QF's focus in announcing changes will probably be still international, with maybe a mention here or there of domestic if any routes are to be cancelled, and a percentage reduction figure in flights given as a one line item for domestic.

However, one thing that's seemingly stood out domestically thus far is that MEL - SYD (busiest and probably with the highest percentage of corporate traffic as a percentage of seats occupied for the east coast routes, not including west coast mining centre routes like Pt Hedland) has, even accounting for the greater number of flights normally scheduled, much higher flight cancellation numbers than #2 route SYD - BNE.

If anything, this seems even truer for VAd than it does for QFd. To me that's counter-intuitive because QFd has dominance in non-leisure flyers.

Maybe this greater rate of SYD - MEL (not SYD -BNE) cancellations is to be expected because to obtain the cheapest fare, many leisure travellers book a few weeks in advance, whereas lots of business travellers have to book close to date of travel due to meetings constantly changing, and hence latter in theory often pay higher fares, and are loved by airlines for so doing.

However to be definitive we'll have to wait for official government statistics that have a time lag.

 

[jakeseven7]

Can you give a few clues? Mainly just frequency reductions, or route cancellations?

Qantas haven't released the details of the cuts yet but have highlighted they are coming in the media.

 

[justinbrett]

Can you give a few clues? Mainly just frequency reductions, or route cancellations?

Is the delay from today (when you seem to know about these) simply because it takes time to work out exactly what the airline wants to achieve, as it has to closely examine booking trends?

QF's focus in announcing changes will probably be still international, with maybe a mention here or there of domestic if any routes are to be cancelled, and a percentage reduction figure in flights given as a one line item for domestic.

However, one thing that's seemingly stood out domestically thus far is that MEL - SYD (busiest and probably with the highest percentage of corporate traffic as a percentage of seats occupied for the east coast routes, not including west coast mining centre routes like Pt Hedland) has, even accounting for the greater number of flights normally scheduled, much higher flight cancellation numbers than #2 route SYD - BNE.

If anything, this seems even truer for VAd than it does for QFd. To me that's counter-intuitive because QFd has dominance in non-leisure flyers.

Maybe this greater rate of SYD - MEL (not SYD -BNE) cancellations is to be expected because to obtain the cheapest fare, many leisure travellers book a few weeks in advance, whereas lots of business travellers have to book close to date of travel due to meetings constantly changing, and hence latter in theory often pay higher fares, and are loved by airlines for so doing.

However to be definitive we'll have to wait for official government statistics that have a time lag.

Until May, AA's longhaul schedule is as follows:
DFW-NRT
DFW-LHR
MIA-LHR

That is all.

If that's what AA's schedule is - I can't imagine Qantas will be any better. My guess is SYD-LAX, PER-LHR and maybe an Asian route (perhaps SYD-SIN).

People need to come to grips with how serious this is - the world is shutting down.

The question is over domestic routes. At the moment there's no government warnings over domestic travel. But I expect a significant reduction in frequency.

 

[jakeseven7]

Until May, AA's longhaul schedule is as follows:
DFW-NRT
DFW-LHR
MIA-LHR

That is all.

If that's what AA's schedule is - I can't imagine Qantas will be any better. My guess is SYD-LAX, PER-LHR and maybe an Asian route (perhaps SYD-SIN).

People need to come to grips with how serious this is - the world is shutting down.

The question is over domestic routes. At the moment there's no government warnings over domestic travel. But I expect a significant reduction in frequency.

Lets take some of the hysteria and heat out of everything.

The world is not shutting down, its pausing for a time. The cuts are going to be sharp, deep and quick. If it works, the rebound may be even faster than the fall.

 

[justinbrett]

Lets take some of the hysteria and heat out of everything.

The world is not shutting down, its pausing for a time. The cuts are going to be sharp, deep and quick. If it works, the rebound may be even faster than the fall.

I didn't say it was permenantly shutting down. But it is - exactly how you say - The cuts are going to be sharp, deep and quick.

There is a question how long this will go on for - most people are thinking around 3-6 months. It depends. Our case/death rates are going up in accordance with those in Europe. It's here folks. No stopping it - best chance is slowing it down.

 

[AIRwin]

If that's what AA's schedule is - I can't imagine Qantas will be any better. My guess is SYD-LAX, PER-LHR and maybe an Asian route (perhaps SYD-SIN).

HND?

 

[Melburnian1]

HND?

(sorry I was referring to QF not AA): + JNB/SCL - either no or little nonstop competition.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF shares closed at A$3.02 on 16 March, down 16 cents (5.03 per cent) for the day. It's a largish drop, but perhaps not as bad as expected. The banks (dofferent sector) dropped 10 to 12.5 per cent: huge in one trading day.

Interesting to see what it will do if QF makes a further announcement.

Sometimes 'the market' has a rise either in indices or individual stocks when one expects the opposite, or vice versa.

 

[justinbrett]

HND?

Nope

Asia, effective March 16

• American will suspend all remaining flights to Asia, except for three flights per week from DFW to NRT

 

[AIRwin]

Nope

But will AA lose their HND slots?

 

[justinbrett]

+ JNB/SCL - either no or little nonstop competition.

I don't think either JNB/SCL will make the shortlist. I think the threshold will be essential transport links between continents. I don't think there will be a compelling need for either of those locations. JNB can be reached via DXB/SIN etc. SCL via LAX (yes - long way round!). We're talking about 95% reductions here.

Post automatically merged: Mar 16, 2020

But will AA lose their HND slots?

They are working on an assumption the slot rules will be relaxed. I'm fairly sure the EU has said this will apply to European airports; I expect Japan will do the same.

 

[PineappleSkip]

A fcouple of weeks ago IATA put out what was effectively a begging letter asking for slot rules to be relaxed. That should make sense to airports as noone is in the process of stepping up supply in the face of all this.

Cheers skip