Qantas - what will Coronavirus mean in the medium term?

[Melburnian1]

'The Australian' on Friday 13 March has almost a full page on implications for airlines.

It says that one QFi flight from HKG to SYD (A330) had '39 passengers' with the Captain signing some card for a passenger and writing 'hope you enjoyed your almost private flight.' Very witty.

 

[Tropic]

user ozflyer was banned

Just out of interest, what was reason for ban?

 

[jakeseven7]

Just out of interest, what was reason for ban?

gosh don’t look at me I’m not admin or a moderator! I just noticed banned underneath the users handle in an old thread...

 

[AIRwin]

I just noticed banned underneath the users handle in an old thread...

Suspended instead of banned...

 

[Tropic]

gosh don’t look at me

It's all good Jake, was just asking
Geeze, this Covid19 got people real jumpy...

 

[jakeseven7]

It's all good Jake, was just asking
Geeze, this Covid19 got people real jumpy...

hahah sorry didn’t mean for you to take it that way - apologies! I was just scared I would get banned for even mentioning the moderation word

 

[amaroo]

hahah sorry didn’t mean for you to take it that way - apologies!

<snip>

Haha, good to see you know how .... still waiting over on that other thread

 

[juddles]

Suspended instead of banned...

or is he in a personal "recession"?

 

[juddles]

Just checked

At 1145 hours on Friday 13 March, QAN (QF) share price had dropped a further 55 cents (15.11 per cent) to $3.09.
....

Just a trivial thing, but wondering if it could get down to $2.47 - only significant in that that was the price on 28 Nov 2008 when AJ became CEO....

Amazing, isn't it, that the past six years where Qantas climbed back from almost $1 value to the giddy heights of $7, only to see the majority of that destroyed just because a single person was sneezed on by a bat deep in China....

 

[Max Samuels]

Actually it’s the perfect time to launch sunrise flights. People don’t want to stop in Asia at the moment.

As long as the US stays relatively clear I think the transpacific routes will keep QF afloat. We’ve been through worse.

Chief Executive Alex Cruz told BA's staff in a message titled "the survival of British Airways" on Friday that coronavirus was causing a crisis "of global proportions like no other we have known", more serious than the financial crisis, SARS or 9/11.

 

[justinbrett]

Chief Executive Alex Cruz told BA's staff in a message titled "the survival of British Airways" on Friday that coronavirus was causing a crisis "of global proportions like no other we have known", more serious than the financial crisis, SARS or 9/11.

You quoted my post that was 9 days old.

Posts don't age well when it comes to COVID-19!

I did update my assessment in this post:

*humble cough*

I'm usually reluctant to admit when I'm wrong. But I've been wrong.

I thought the media was over-reacting, and that the impact of the virus would not be as bad as they were making out.

This is some pretty crazy cough going on. I still think the greatest impact is going to be economic, not the virus itself - but with the US banning flights to continental Europe for a month - we have not seen that kind of thing in (most of our) lifetimes. The last time the world was so segregated was probably WWII - when Qantas Empire Airways was flying the kangaroo at night to avoid being seen by the Japanese.

I now have DSC remorse, and although my (RTW) trip is 5 months away I'm not as confident as I was just three days ago. If the DSC offer came out today I wouldn't have booked. I just hope the drastic action taken now will be enough to bring us back to normality in the near future.

 

[pauly7]

Chief Executive Alex Cruz told BA's staff in a message titled "the survival of British Airways" on Friday that coronavirus was causing a crisis "of global proportions like no other we have known", more serious than the financial crisis, SARS or 9/11.

I suspect the national carriers of each country will get some form of government relief if it gets to that point. Basically these businesses are far too strategically important to let collapse. It just won’t happen (unless the Government is bankrupt too of course!).

What we need to look out for is the second tier carriers which probably would be allowed to fail...

 

[amaroo]

Airlines with extensive domestic networks have a safety net. The other ones are facing a horror story.

 

[pauly7]

Airlines with extensive domestic networks have a safety net. The other ones are facing a horror story.

Yes agreed in principle but I’m not convinced yet it’s a ‘fail safe’ safety net. I mean the US carriers I suspect will be decimated - once they start testing properly and realise how widespread it already is in the US, the Americans will probably panic and tank their domestic network...

Airlines like Virgin Atlantic though... wow might almost be shut down overnight.

 

[exceladdict]

Yes agreed in principle but I’m not convinced yet it’s a ‘fail safe’ safety net. I mean the US carriers I suspect will be decimated - once they start testing properly and realise how widespread it already is in the US, the Americans will probably panic and tank their domestic network...

Airlines like Virgin Atlantic though... wow might almost be shut down overnight.

How is JQ's domestic going? I imagine of the QF group their Asian based network would be particularly vulnerable

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Airlines like Virgin Atlantic though... wow might almost be shut down overnight.

I thought VS was doing ok? And with a huge TATL market, they’re protected from the USA ban on european flights.

 

[pauly7]

I thought VS was doing ok? And with a huge TATL market, they’re protected from the USA ban on european flights.

Well I don’t think any airline is doing ok, ban or no ban though I suspect US ‘bans’ may be only days away....

My point was was more that they are a marginal international international airline with no domestic back up, that also isn’t the national carrier so unsure if they’d be rescued if their owners couldn’t prop them up. Just thinking

 

[pauly7]

How is JQ's domestic going? I imagine of the QF group their Asian based network would be particularly vulnerable

Haven’t heard though all the young (likely to be completely unaffected from a health point of view) Aussies are busy booking domestic holidays right now so they might be picking up some bucks too like QF is with the domestic sales initiatives.

There are ‘isolation’ parties popping up it’s crazy times!

 

[justinbrett]

There’s a lot of optimism here about domestic flights - with sports and other events cancelled, many employers banning all travel (inc domestic) and a large portion of the population scared to leave their house (yes, including young people) - it’s not looking very healthy either.

 

[AIRwin]

I noticed some flights between MEL and SYD are scheduled to be operated by B787 - even before the suspension of SFO so is it already underutilised?