Qantas - what will Coronavirus mean in the medium term?

[amaroo]

. (Disclaimer: I have 7 international bookings currently.)

For how long - that's the Q

 

[justinbrett]

It seems to be holding around $0.64ish.. which isn't too bad really.

Great if you're exporting (e.g. coal, iron ore, education, tourism) and not so great if you're buying computers or oil from overseas..

I'm pretty sure the fate of the aussie dollar depends completely on how the US handles its own upcoming infections..

Holding is a strong word since we have no idea how this is going to play out. It's also a 10+ year low. But yes, it's been lower historically. In the bad old days. It's not a good rate for Australians travelling overseas.

 

[jakeseven7]

Yeah, being selfish here. I'm concerned about having to book US hotels / domestic flights at that terrible exchange rate.

on the price detractor side though the US has a massive domestic tourism market that is about to die so you might see some sharper pricing.

 

[amaroo]

Holding is a strong word since we have no idea how this is going to play out. It's also a 10+ year low. But yes, it's been lower historically. In the bad old days. It's not a good rate for Australians travelling overseas.

As you know, long way to go yet. It hit $0.50c back in the 2000/2001. Had a terrific 3 month trip around the World during that time - things still move forward.

There's always something worse around the corner - wait till you see what a recession and 18% interest rates can do to your lifestyle!

 

[juddles]

As always, I am unafraid to voice opinions that are far less well informed than some of our stellar posters here. I am a simpleton when it comes to shares. But I post them as that is what I feel, and love when these are either confirmed or shot down in flames.

The halving of the Qantas share price is to me just one teensy part of this overall Coronadrama. (maybe I should trademark that term?) My initial thoughts were that such a drop should be expected. But here is where it gets difficult (in absense of a reliable crystal ball). I thought the ar_e would fall out of shares in any airline, but then once the inevitable pandemic did its super-fast spread thing, things would then again crawl back to normal. But IF Australia and many other place s quickly invoke dramatic travel bans and isolation measures, there is a different impact. On the one hand this will slow ( a teeny bit) the spread, with the desired spreading out of the peak curve demand on medical services. But that same effect will also extend the life of this pandemic, and both slow the recovery process for airlines, and perhaps make more airlines die in the extended period of low pax.

 

[serfty]

For how long - that's the Q

Next one is in June - however on QF37 which has had availability zeroed out but not yet specifically cancelled. By that time it is likely it won't matter e where you are in the world.

FWIW, My current contracting employer has imposed a 14 day WFH criteria on me as I went to Thailand and Singapore last weekend. Such is life - I'm certainly not missing the 75 minute each way commute.

 

[justinbrett]

wait till you see what a recession and 18% interest rates can do to your lifestyle!

Well, hopefully not at the same time - interest rate hikes are for boom times.

Recessions are pretty good if you don’t own your own business and manage to keep your job. But yes, otherwise bad.

 

[amaroo]

Well, hopefully not at the same time - interest rate hikes are for boom times.

Recessions are pretty good if you don’t own your own business and manage to keep your job. But yes, otherwise bad.

One follows the other, but I suspect you already knew that, like the rest of us. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger... I suppose.

 

[justinbrett]

One follows the other, but I suspect you already knew that, like the rest of us. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger... I suppose.

Getting off topic, but we've not had a recession nor interest rates above 10% in over 25 years. A recession is inevitable every now and then but 18% interest rates is just a sign you have a labor government.

It's all about shallowing the peaks and troughs.

 

[jakeseven7]

Getting off topic, but we've not had a recession nor interest rates above 10% in over 25 years. A recession is inevitable every now and then but 18% interest rates is just a sign you have a labor government.

It's all about shallowing the peaks and troughs.

pity the user ozflyer was banned they would be loving all this recession talk!

 

[Melburnian1]

At 1145 hours on Friday 13 March, QAN (QF) share price had dropped a further 55 cents (15.11 per cent) to $3.09.

Competitor VAH (VA) shares were down to 5.7 cents, a decrease of five per cent, but compared to QF it has a very small number of 'freely available' shares as only about 10 per cent of the company is not in the major owners' hands.

 

[jakeseven7]

At 1145 hours on Friday 13 March, QAN (QF) share price had dropped a further 15.11 per cent to $3.09.

There are some bargains to be had all over the ASX today...

 

[dajop]

There are some bargains to be had all over the ASX today...

That’s what people were saying yesterday. And earlier in the week.

 

[therudies86]

All my domestic and international work travel bookings have been cancelled - that's three month's worth. And all international and domestic personal travel too.

Mid term, time will be required for businesses and people to build confidence to be able to travel again.

I suspect we'll also see a long term shift to increased remote working and tele-conferencing as a result of the current issues, which could cause long term structural issues for the travel industry.

 

[jakeseven7]

That’s what people were saying yesterday. And earlier in the week.

It was true then and even truer now

You know what they say, this is when the cool heads make hot bucks!

 

[Melburnian1]

I suspect we'll also see a long term shift to increased remote working and tele-conferencing as a result of the current issues, which could cause long term structural issues for the travel industry.

I am not suggesting you are incorrect, but more video-conferencing has been previously predicted and didn't occur as much as forecast.

 

[bcworld]

A friend is senior in an adventure travel company. Worldwide bookings are down 90%. Travel is cactus for the foreseeable, well international travel anyway.

 

[therudies86]

I am not suggesting you are incorrect, but more video-conferencing has been previously predicted and didn't occur as much as forecast.

I agree with you on what has happened in the past - but in our organisation at least, I've observed a longer term shift away from travel/face to face to Skype/Teams. I fear for my WP status longer term with this shift - but less travel for me won't be a bad thing.

 

[Pushka]

That’s what people were saying yesterday. And earlier in the week.

Well, one day that will be true. Please?

 

[Melburnian1]

'The Australian' on Friday 13 March has almost a full page on implications for airlines.

It says that one QFi flight from HKG to SYD (A330) had '39 passengers' with the Captain signing some card for a passenger and writing 'hope you enjoyed your almost private flight.' Very witty.