Qantas - what will Coronavirus mean in the medium term?

[RSD]

As at 1555 AEDT on Monday 9 March, not long before the ASX closes for the day, QAN (i.e. QF) shares were 'off' (lovely word) 42 cents to $4.24, a 9.12 per cent drop. In one day that's a very large decrease for any share in percentage terms. On 3 January 2020, these shares closed at A$7.36 so that's a far bigger decline and shows how 'the market' has digested the virus news.

While beyond the scope of this blog, some investors must be facing margin calls. Not good for their financial 'health.'

A lot of investors on the ASX would be happy if their shares were only off 9.12% - those in the oil game lost double that or more - e.g. Woodside (WPL) down 18.35%

 

[pauly7]

So my employer has added the folowing to the list of countries that if visited require self qurantine for 14 days:

• Cambodia
• Hong Kong
• Indonesia
• Singapore
• Thailand

So if this stays that way upon return from my 5.5 week vacation in July, I will need to work from home for 2 weeks as am spending a night in SIngapore ont he way home. Interesting times ahead.

The coutries already on the list were China, Iran, South Korea, Mongolia, Italy, Japan.

If required to travel to US (or anywhere OS but especially US due to their poor health system) I’d be asking in writing if you are covered for insurance purposes.

I’m surprised you are still allowed to travel internationally at all!

 

[Lynda2475]

I’m surprised you are still allowed to travel internationally at all!

All international work travel is banned for March, April and May.

The above self quarantine relates to those who opt to undertake personal travel, as I posted a few days back. Employer understands that many employees made personal travel plans months ahead of Covid-19 becomming an issue, and that it may cause financial hardship if those plans are cancelled as insurers treat as a chnage of mind, unless DFAT raises warning level to "Do Not Travel".

So they have asked that staff self quarantine and work from home for 14 days (or take unused annual leave or unpaid leave if cant work from home) upon return. Its fair, just requires one to check the list of countires daily as this keeps changing.

 

[pauly7]

All international work travel is banned for March, April and May.

The above self quarantine relates to those who opt to undertake personal travel, as I posted a few days back. Employer understands that many employees made personal travel plans months ahead of Covid-19 becomming an issue, and that it may cause financial hardship if those plans are cancelled as insurers treat as a chnage of mind, unless DFAT raises warning level to "Do Not Travel".

So they have asked that staff self quarantine and work from home for 14 days (or take unused annual leave or unpaid leave if cant work from home) upon return. Its fair, just requires one to check the list of countires daily as this keeps changing.

Got it. Similar here apart from our list of countries is longer and our ‘grounding’ has no end date! Although we do have overseas conferences in July that have not been cancelled yet... rest have.

 

[Melburnian1]

A lot of investors on the ASX would be happy if their shares were only off 9.12% - those in the oil game lost double that or more - e.g. Woodside (WPL) down 18.35%

True, but QAN is an industrial share not mining or oil. Though it does 'mine' travellers' pockets.

 

[Lynda2475]

our ‘grounding’ has no end date

Yeah all international conferences and vendor visits Feb through May were cancelled. A colleague of mine is still approved to attend a conference in Colorado in mid-June, but they have held off booking flights as highly likely that international travel ban may be extended.

My bosses boss who is QF Platinum (was Chairmans lounge in his previous job, but QF finally realised he'd switched roles/companies and clawed this back), made a comment to me in January when he was having trouble redeeming a classic reward that "everyman and his dog is QF Platinum as its so easy to get". I corrected him in that majority of QFF members are bronze, and that except for very wealthy most Plantinum FFs have significant work funded J travel. Karma as he had had 3 J trips cancelled, so might be a lowly Gold come renewal time since he is a tight @ss who only flies Y when he has to pay himself.

 

[eastwest101]

My guess is that at least some of the 380s are about to be parked. It will be very interesting to see if they come back.

Has anyone done the maths yet? I know that a lot of cancellations to destinations in Asia will have freed up some A333's and A332s but you can't fly A330s to DFW, LAX or LHR - for those you need the range of A380s or B789s? Surely accelerating the retirement of the B744 fleet would be more logical?

 

[Lynda2475]

And reduce daily flights from 2 to 1 (i.e. MEL-LAX) just using the A380, freeing up a dreamiliner or two to enable extra PER-LHR is needed.

 

[ellen10]

My son's work has requested all workers reconsider their leave. As they will need all hands on deck if/when the virus spreads.
If they take leave and travel to or transit through a long list of countries that their employer has said "do not travel to", and they contract the virus, they have been advised that they will not be paid sick leave. So will either have to use holiday leave or LWOP.

 

[MEL_Traveller]

Has anyone done the maths yet? I know that a lot of cancellations to destinations in Asia will have freed up some A333's and A332s but you can't fly A330s to DFW, LAX or LHR - for those you need the range of A380s or B789s? Surely accelerating the retirement of the B744 fleet would be more logical?

Dunno with QF's specifications, but you could *in theory* fly MEL-SIN-LHR (3744/6765 miles) in a 332. Those sectors are within the range of some of the longest flights currently/previously operated by 332s including EZE-FCO (6919 miles), MAD-NRT (6707 miles), DTW-PEK (6632 miles), AKL-LAX (6505 miles).

 

[Melburnian1]

Has anyone done the maths yet? I know that a lot of cancellations to destinations in Asia will have freed up some A333's and A332s but you can't fly A330s to DFW, LAX or LHR - for those you need the range of A380s or B789s? Surely accelerating the retirement of the B744 fleet would be more logical?

The latter might be 'logical' but doesn't QFi require approvals to fly some aircraft to some destinations, while HND for instance has problems with A380s IIRC, and perhaps JNB/SCL don't play host to them.

 

[Ansett]

Checking Flights MEL-SIN on 4th April returning 14th April both flights where A380 and are now 787-9 so looks like a change and rest for the A380

 

[moa999]

Checking Flights MEL-SIN on 4th April returning 14th April both flights where A380 and are now 787-9 so looks like a change and rest for the A380

Presumably QF35/36 ?

 

[pauly7]

Checking Flights MEL-SIN on 4th April returning 14th April both flights where A380 and are now 787-9 so looks like a change and rest for the A380

Wasn’t that already announced?

 

[Ansett]

Seems to be no A380 Flight MEL-SIN from 30Th March and had been replaced with 787. So looks like a possible rest for the A380 is indeed a good probability.

Post automatically merged: Mar 9, 2020

Wasn’t that already announced?

I guess its possible I hadnt seen anything though and a week ago I could get the A380 on those dates now I cant.

Post automatically merged: Mar 9, 2020

Wasn’t that already announced?

I guess its possible I hadnt seen anything though and a week ago I could get the A380 on those dates now I cant.

Post automatically merged: Mar 9, 2020

Presumably QF35/36 ?

Yes QF35/36 sorry

 

[RSD]

My son's work has requested all workers reconsider their leave. As they will need all hands on deck if/when the virus spreads.
If they take leave and travel to or transit through a long list of countries that their employer has said "do not travel to", and they contract the virus, they have been advised that they will not be paid sick leave. So will either have to use holiday leave or LWOP.

I'm not an expert but I supect that the company saying that would be violating the Fair Work Act - and it also encourages people to attend work when they are ill. What industry is he in?

 

[Lynda2475]

If they take leave and travel to or transit through a long list of countries that their employer has said "do not travel to", and they contract the virus, they have been advised that they will not be paid sick leave. So will either have to use holiday leave or LWOP.

This is stricter than my employer where:

1, Those who had leave appprved and booked their personal travel beforepolicy was annoucnced who visit or transit via one of the listed countries within 14 days of return home, need to self quarantine for 14 days uon return. If they can work form home (WFH( they will be paid ther usual salary and if they are sick they will be able to access their sick leave enttlement (which doctors certificate); and if cant WFH can be paid by special agreement with line manager (as was an unforseen event at the time of booking).

2. Those who opt to book travel after the annoucement will likewise have to self quaratine, however if their role doent enable them to WFH, they will have to take any other annual leave owing or Leave Without Pay, as this was a known event. However, if they genuinely get sick they can still use their sick leave entitlement.

 

[drron]

The latter might be 'logical' but doesn't QFi require approvals to fly some aircraft to some destinations, while HND for instance has problems with A380s IIRC, and perhaps JNB/SCL don't play host to them.

JNB has certainly had services by A380s.Each time I have been through have seen a LH 380

 

[juddles]

I know that share prices are fickle things that bounce around, but at $4.15 Qantas is now back where they were in 2017. I suspect they will take a very long time (if ever) to get back to the recent $7+ highs....

 

[get me outta here]

My QF8 from DFW in June is still an A380.