Qatar Airways may buy Virgin Australia in full - what are the consequences?

[justinbrett]

QR own 25% of IAG (BA, EI, IB), making it the largest shareholder - yet didnt cause mass panic over there.

That's because 25% is not a majority.

 

[dk4]

...decides it wants to bankrupt QF and attacks QF hard. VA tickets at dirt cheap a pop for a few years, QR prices are low. Suddenly QF literally can't survive...

This is "predatory pricing". It is illegal in Australia - the ACCC would intervene should a scenario like this develop.

 

[jrfsp]

That's because 25% is not a majority.

As mentioned above QR wouldn't be allowed to buy majority ownership of VA either. This thread really a moot point. But there shouldn't be an issue with them purchasing a minority stake.

Realistically VA will require new capital and Bain have probably reached the limit of their capital investment, I don't see why QR wouldn't be a good minority stakeholder - at least they would provide active guidance and relevance rather than say a superannuation fund.

 

[justinbrett]

As mentioned above QR wouldn't be allowed to buy majority ownership of VA either. This thread really a mute point. But there shouldn't be an issue with them purchasing a minority stake.

Realistically VA will require new capital and Bain have probably reached the limit of their capital investment, I don't see why QR wouldn't be a good minority stakeholder.

No, but the thread is "buy VA in full" which is what most of us are refuting.

There's other threads discussing who might take a minority share.

 

[twinaisle]

Love reading the pretend scenarios. Don't y'all have status runs or so to do?

 

[PERLHR]

Love reading the pretend scenarios. Don't y'all have status runs or so to do?

Yes...utilising Qatar......oh wait a minute....,

 

[PERLHR]

This is "predatory pricing". It is illegal in Australia - the ACCC would intervene should a scenario like this develop.

It's funny how people have different interpretations. QR prices are never that low and if they are then it's called "competition" something that Australia is not , especially QF, very good at. Even now as i.look at some.prices domestic runs the VA price is very similar to QF. Can I call that collusion ?

 

[anat0l]

Easy - QF dies, or is forced to do so in a bid to reinvent itself into a shell of an airline. People won't accept that so QF is dead anyway.

Surprised it has not happened already. There's enough cause from previous QR leadership that would like to see QF go the way of Julius Caesar.

No doubt the powers in Australia will try to stop this and QF would of course make an impassioned submission against the idea. Given the media circus that we have had on blocking QR's submissions previously, even if this is far more serious, no one is going to take anyone who is not on QR's side seriously, including the government, the ACCC or the FIRB.

QR-as-VA doesn't have to predatory price as such. They could lower fares to a point that they seem like reasonable prices, especially in lieu of QF ones, and just keep them there, while sporting equal or superior product, which can't be that difficult to do. Give some golden incentives to corporate contracts to switch from Qantas. Add on top of that connections with QR and, with some exceptions due to QR not covering non-stop routes to Asia, basically you have a true QF competitor through and through, except with more financial ammunition to crush and bury the opposition - much more than QF has ever had in its battle against its domestic rivals throughout its history.

Of course, if QF really goes, who cares? That's capitalism.

 

[RooFlyer]

Of course, if QF really goes, who cares? That's capitalism.

The question then would be how long they can keep selling points and the public gobbling up the free points before anyone realises the jig is up?

Bring back Compass, I say.

 

[anat0l]

The question then would be how long they can keep selling points and the public gobbling up the free points before anyone realises the jig is up?

Bring back Compass, I say.

Well, I was alive (not an active flyer) when AN went belly up.

So I'm running on that risk... but once QR purchases VA and the signs are there, then maybe we should start running.... even if I can only get a few toasters out of it all before it goes to ground....

 

[PERLHR]

The question then would be how long they can keep selling points and the public gobbling up the free points before anyone realises the jig is up?

Bring back Compass, I say.

Have no fear..Emirates will have their bed buddies under their wing

Well, I was alive (not an active flyer) when AN went belly up.

So I'm running on that risk... but once QR purchases VA and the signs are there, then maybe we should start running.... even if I can only get a few toasters out of it all before it goes to ground....

I'm sure that QF best bed friends EK will sort out the FF Programme and any QF assets ..as we wave goodbye to let them set up home in the new world...DXB.

 

[drron]

It's even more serious than that.

Imagine a situation where the Australian and Qatari governments are having a foreign policy dispute (unrelated to aviation)

Qatar has the power to ground VA and bring the country to a standstill in retaliation
Australia wants to put financial sanctions on Qatar but can't, or otherwise the above happens

Just one example of the many bad outcomes that could occur if this is allowed. This is why the FIRB exists.

You either weren’t around or have forgotten about the Great Australian Pilots of 1989. That basically stopped domestic services. Bob Hawke declared a State of Emergency and allowed the Air Force and foreign pilots and planes to fly domestically.
So I doubt QR could do worse. The worst thing was that many pilots never got their jobs back.

 

[anat0l]

You either weren’t around or have forgotten about the Great Australian Pilots of 1989. That basically stopped domestic services. Bob Hawke declared a State of Emergency and allowed the Air Force and foreign pilots and planes to fly domestically.
So I doubt QR could do worse. The worst thing was that many pilots never got their jobs back.

The airlines were still national at that point in time.

I'd be incredulous as to how the government can take over private airliners and have them commandeered by the Air Force and foreign pilots.

 

[justinbrett]

You either weren’t around or have forgotten about the Great Australian Pilots of 1989. That basically stopped domestic services. Bob Hawke declared a State of Emergency and allowed the Air Force and foreign pilots and planes to fly domestically.
So I doubt QR could do worse. The worst thing was that many pilots never got their jobs back.

I was around, but quite young. My grandfather had recently at QF so had many stories.

Good example of how vital aviation is to our economy and way of life.

I'd be incredulous as to how the government can take over private airliners and have them commandeered by the Air Force and foreign pilots.

They didn't take over the airlines they flew their own aircraft (Air Force flew RAAF planes, foreign pilots flew foreign aircraft).

 

[dajop]

The airlines were still national at that point in time.

They were still regulated under the two airline policy at that time. Australian Airlines was government owned (if that's what you meant by national) but Ansett was privately owned.

 

[dajop]

You either weren’t around or have forgotten about the Great Australian Pilots of 1989. That basically stopped domestic services. Bob Hawke declared a State of Emergency and allowed the Air Force and foreign pilots and planes to fly domestically.
So I doubt QR could do worse. The worst thing was that many pilots never got their jobs back.

1989 was a very different era though. I remember a month or two before the pilot strike taking an overnight bus from Melbourne to Sydney (I was a student, airfares were ever so expensive back then). We pulled into a service station at Albury, within 20 minutes another 12 buses travelling from Melbourne to Sydney pulled up at the same service station - not private buses - all RPT. I don't know how many operated either earlier or later. But today I think Firefly and Greyhound both have a bus each, and I guess predominantly serving intermediate stops

 

[Gold Member]

One question I have around this particular thread is around rebranding. I'm not talking about airlines but instead speculative, potentially controversial posts.

Given the government (admittedly, the previous one) was happy for Virgin to collapse into nothing, I think it'd be a bit rich to now get all high and mighty about a foreign owner.

Dare I say much of the OP’s behaviour in the infamous Qatar thread is now “closed for replies” due to biased claims against Qatar Airlines and their state Government while evangelising Qantas and the Australian Government. Positioning of language towards
Qatar Airlines that ostensibly “pushes/bribes/lobbies/bullies” smacks of the same intent with all the same political and commercial posturing.

As an ordinary Australian who shows a decent level of appreciation for our country, as the OP claims, I’m alarmed that some of us are not more welcoming of competition from Qatar Airlines.

 

[OZDUCK]

The question then would be how long they can keep selling points and the public gobbling up the free points before anyone realises the jig is up?

Bring back Compass, I say.

My one Compass flight - Perth to Brisbane direct on an A300 was very nice.

 

[RSVKanga]

I’m alarmed that some of us are not more welcoming of competition from Qatar Airlines.

What competition? There is only one airline that flies between Australia and Qatar, unlike the 2 airlines that fly Australia-UAE, 7 airlines that fly Australia-Singapore, 4 airlines that fly Australia-China and 4 airlines that fly Australia-USA.

Why do we want to expand the absolute monopoly that QR (and a foreign government) has on the Australia-Qatar market? It’s really you that’s advocating for anti-competitive business practices.

This monopoly will only get worse if/when QR buys VA. QR will utilise excess oil funds to supply excess aircraft and dirt cheap fare prices to VA, forcing QF out of business. Even if QF survives, QR might eventually become the largest airline in Australia by fleet size.

 

[RSVKanga]

Edit: thoguht I'd just clarify that the example i'm giving is an extreme one - but one that a rich a country is capable of pulling off.

It’s extreme, but yes it’s certainly not impossible.

It's even more serious than that.

Imagine a situation where the Australian and Qatari governments are having a foreign policy dispute (unrelated to aviation)

Qatar has the power to ground VA and bring the country to a standstill in retaliation
Australia wants to put financial sanctions on Qatar but can't, or otherwise the above happens

Just one example of the many bad outcomes that could occur if this is allowed. This is why the FIRB exists.

I reckon Qatar now easily dwarfs China when it comes to investment potential and its associated national security consequences if Australia has economic/political/military tensions with them. Also, I wouldn’t put too much trust in the FIRB; isn’t it the same FIRB that agreed to sell the Port of Darwin to China?