Qatar Airways to acquire 25% of Virgin Australia

[SYD]

You think that's 'reality'? . How do you think QR would get its (reported) $1 billion back if it destroyed VA2? Oh, and you think Bain would be OK with that?

Out of curiosity, where was that reported? That figure obviously anchors the value of VA2.0 at around $4b. Handy if an IPO is immanent.

 

[RooFlyer]

Out of curiosity, where was that reported? That figure obviously anchors the value of VA2.0 at around $4b. Handy if an IPO is immanent.

I'll have a look, but I recall the AFR. It was only ever 'reported', though.

 

[RooFlyer]

Right. Clearest I can find is a report in the Australian:

What Qatar Airways paid for Virgin Australia stake

However, DataRoom can now reveal the price that Qatar Airways outlaid for the interest was understood to be about $750m or more, supporting a $3bn valuation of the carrier as a whole.

It will form an important part of any pricing of an initial public offering of the airline next year, with some market observers suggesting this will set an expectation around valuation.

There are a few others giving the $bill number but I suspect they may have picked up on the Oz's figure and taken it as $US ?

 

[PaulllM]

AFR and reuters reporting that we might finally see some action on the ipo

Virgin kicks off IPO process, hires investor relations team

https://www.reuters.com/business/vi...vestors-relisting-asx-afr-reports-2025-03-30/

 

[jrfsp]

AFR and reuters reporting that we might finally see some action on the ipo

Virgin kicks off IPO process, hires investor relations team

https://www.reuters.com/business/vi...vestors-relisting-asx-afr-reports-2025-03-30/

Interesting timing, many airlines stocks are taking a bit of a hammering at the moment, especially those exposed to the US market (which VA isnt directly)

 

[RooFlyer]

Interesting timing, many airlines stocks are taking a bit of a hammering at the moment, especially those exposed to the US market (which VA isnt directly)

The local airline equity proxy is of course Qantas, which has done well since August last year. But the local overall IPO market is still pretty weak - it won't be a slam-dunk.

 

[justinbrett]

Global stocks in general are due to take a hammering from tomorrow after the announcement from the Rose Garden.

 

[ozstamps]

Inward passenger numbers into the USA have plummeted, and lots of flights from Canada and Mexico are simply cancelled, some smaller carriers have stopped altogether, and Europe inward numbers have fallen off a cliff.

Inward tourist numbers for Summer there have crashed totally I am reading. Many large Countries have the USA on travel advisory alerts. All airline stock are likely to drop ever further, as their Summer inward traffic dries up inbound.

All down entirely to 'You Know Who' - but they cannot do a thing about it.

Major airlines like Virgin partner UNITED have crashed near 30% this year alone, and it will get worse, I am sure. Love to see United's outward figures month by month ex Australia - I am sure they are a disaster versus 2024.

I would not fly to the USA this year if I was given free tickets - literally. And am not alone. Been there about 40 times and plenty of other more enticing destinations for us at least.

Sure, Virgin themselves no longer fly to USA, but investors looking at ANY IPO for ANY airline will be guided by the collapse in the USA, of that sector I am sure. Absolutely terrible timing.

At the same time decimating Velocity from this week will see their domestic market share drop I am sure, driving many folks into the Qantas group cabins, lessening the appeal to investors even more. 2025 was the yer to RETAIN loyal passengers, not drive them away!

 

[anat0l]

All down entirely to 'You Know Who' - but they cannot do a thing about it.

Well, they could drop their prices. People will overlook a political mess for the right price - just look at QR and Qatar.

Revenues will surely be down but it'll pay their bills and it'll be better than zero.

Anyway, it's just another year. Life will go on, all will adjust. The profit sharing won't be as generous, but oh well.

As for unfortunate timing for VA floating, I don't see this having a huge effect on them. Besides, once Bain offloads, that's their obligations complete. For all we know, they could be sipping sparkling wine in a hot tub in Aspen watching the news of publically owned VA struggling like hell for all they care; they get their money and look like the heroes having rescued the mess of an airline that was about to die in 2020.

 

[RooFlyer]

Sure, Virgin themselves no longer fly to USA, but investors looking at ANY IPO for ANY airline will be guided by the collapse in the USA of that sector I am sure. Terrible timing.

Why should investors in a predominantly Australian domestic airline (with wet-leased services to Doha and near overseas destinations) be frightened off by the collapse in flights to the USA? How much do you understand about the equity market in Australia?

And why on earth produce a plot of United Airlines and not, say, Qantas? Because its a VA2 partner? Is it remotely like the investment profile of VA2? Just bizarre.

Maybe Qantas investors will jump ship and go into the Virgin register so they still have airline exposure, but not with the USA hang-up.

By far the bigger risk to the VA IPO is the weak IPO market in Australia, not the USA market which VA2 aren't exposed to.

 

[ozstamps]

For all we know, Bain could be sipping sparkling wine in a hot tub in Aspen watching the news of publically owned VA struggling like hell for all they care; they get their money

I suspect they've been doing that from the moment they got the total bonus ~$750 million donation from Qatar.

They were already quids ahead, WELL before then.

WHATEVER they get is all total gravy from now on - they do not really care about the airline, the staff, or the customers. Diseased carcass salvaged, and profited from. Move on.

 

[Saab34]

Don’t Private Equity bake long term contracts into the business before they leave? Be it financial, supplier, advising or services?

A family member of mine was telling me one firm he worked for, was doing some work for a ex PE company, they came across 20 year contracts that the PE outfit put upon the business before they sold out. Needless to say they were at above market rates, he said it’s somewhat normal and is one of the pitfalls of getting into bed with PE, however some companies have no choice.

I wonder if the E190s are being financed via Bain? Obviously they will be consulting Virgin for many years ahead regardless of share register.

 

[HS-TQE]

Don’t Private Equity bake long term contracts into the business before they leave? Be it financial, supplier, advising or services?

A family member of mine was telling me one firm he worked for, was doing some work for a ex PE company, they came across 20 year contracts that the PE outfit put upon the business before they sold out. Needless to say they were at above market rates, he said it’s somewhat normal and is one of the pitfalls of getting into bed with PE, however some companies have no choice.

I wonder if the E190s are being financed via Bain? Obviously they will be consulting Virgin for many years ahead regardless of share register.

4 of the E190s are leased (Those were recently transferred to the lessor), the other 4 are acquired through a mortgage arrangement (I.e mortgaged right from the get go)

 

[elanshin]

Why should investors in a predominantly Australian domestic airline (with wet-leased services to Doha and near overseas destinations) be frightened off by the collapse in flights to the USA? How much do you understand about the equity market in Australia?

And why on earth produce a plot of United Airlines and not, say, Qantas? Because its a VA2 partner? Is it remotely like the investment profile of VA2? Just bizarre.

Maybe Qantas investors will jump ship and go into the Virgin register so they still have airline exposure, but not with the USA hang-up.

By far the bigger risk to the VA IPO is the weak IPO market in Australia, not the USA market which VA2 aren't exposed to.

Im sure you're aware that this is probably a bigger macro economics situation than a VA specific situation. I think ASX:QAN ia also down below their pump post results. ASX200 is overall down 3% and pending what happens tomorrow we might see some bigger movements down.

It's more the global uncertainty with everything right now.

 

[RooFlyer]

Don’t Private Equity bake long term contracts into the business before they leave? Be it financial, supplier, advising or services?

Yes to the contracts thing, but 20 years I haven't come across. Traditionally PE wants to exit and have minimal management time residing in the past investment. But Bain/VA hasn't following the 'traditional' PE investment trajectory.

Im sure you're aware that this is probably a bigger macro economics situation than a VA specific situation. I think ASX:QAN ia also down below their pump post results. ASX200 is overall down 3% and pending what happens tomorrow we might see some bigger movements down.

Yes, hence the comment that IPO environment in Australia is weak at the moment. The market isn't 'raging' with lots of spare money 'floating' around. But Qantas is very profitable, Virgin is very profitable and government antipathy to QR has softened, so absent shocks like a fuel price step-up and the like, its not a bad time to go.

But a comparison to UA's share price remains an odd thing to put forward.

 

[ozstamps]

But a comparison to UA's share price remains an odd thing to put forward.

Odd to you perhaps, but to the REAL world, seeing airline stock tanking, I'd hate to be those VA suits this week doing their national roadshow to potential investors trying to get them to invest money in this airline, in an IPO this year.

They are a Virgin partner as it happens, and a litmus test of the industry overall, and losing near 30% of their value year to date is NOT what savvy fund managers will be brightened up seeing. The other major US carriers stock prices have tanked as well in 2024 as you'd know if you have done ANY research. Seeing you clearly do not believe me, maybe the Wall Street Journal might be acceptable source?

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/trump-tariffs-trade-war-stock-market-04-02-2025/card/airline-shares-fall-on-trump-tariffs-dqgQlBoD0t1T8gs4s3qq?siteid=yhoof2

I pray MY Super Fund dos not invest in Virgin.


'RooFlyer advises us on AFF, that you have NOTHING to worry about, and it is 'NOT A BAD TIME TO GO' is possibly their only plus they can put forward. I'm sure that will sway the real players.

They'll be as unwelcome as a Tesla car salesman knocking on their door right now.

 

[jase05]

This isn’t Bain’s first rodeo. I’d suspect they might just know a little more about these things than the average punter on a forum

 

[I love to travel]

This isn’t Bain’s first rodeo. I’d suspect they might just know a little more about these things than the average punter on a forum

And also they can determine timing. No date yet announced

 

[ozstamps]

This isn’t Bain’s first rodeo. I’d suspect they might just know a little more about these things than the average punter on a forum

Well if it were not my first rodeo, I’d know this was the worst week in years to be knocking on doors nationally asking for millions of new investment in an Airline.

Virgin Australia executives set to meet investors ahead of re-listing, says source​

By Scott Murdoch
March 31, 20251:42 PM GMT+11Updated 3 days ago




March 31 (Reuters) - Virgin Australia executives will begin meeting with prospective investors on Tuesday ahead of a potential relisting of the Bain Capital-owned airline, according to a person familiar with the matter.

 

[Saab34]

I recall they had financial commitments due this May, ie they needed to list this June.