QF B737 Replacement Competition

[docjames]

Could Boeing also give them “options” or some deal (?buybacks on the Max) regarding next-generation short haul ie. buy Max now, get priority / discounted access to the next (all new) generation, thereby locking them in for longer too.

Bowing next-gen short haul aircraft is a total paper design / thought bubble right now, but could be a carrot as well so the Max becomes a bridging aircraft, rather than a “long-term” solution.

 

[Carrots]

Is the ability to use containers for baggage in the A320 Series a real advantage or does the short turn around times on some of those flights negate their usefulness?

As @justinbrett mentioned, seemingly no benefits on the turnaround times, but there would be a cost saving from a HR perspective as the "cans" are much less labour intensive to handle and load vs the manual baggage loading in the 737.

 

[Quickstatus]

some deal (?buybacks on the Max) regarding next-generation short haul

The Max IS Boeing's next gen short haul.
NMA is still a thought bubble
777X - high capacity does not work for QF

"cans" are much less labour intensive to handle and load

Loading and unloading into cans or aircraft hold involve manual loading and unloading into either
Then cans need additional loading and unloading of can into aircraft.

 

[RichardMEL]

NMA is probably dead for anytime soon. Boeing nearly lost the farm with the MAX fiasco and there's still a long way to go with the 777X program, and the 787 has some shaky issues (build quality) of late so they don't have the capacity or capability to think about a new aircraft.

Plus the NMA was really looking at the 200-250ish seat market, which is bigger than the 737's (except the -10ish) so it's not really appropriate in this context.

One may see QF look to this size aircraft when the 330's come of age, which is probably 10ish years away give or take, and by then Boeing may have something, or there will still be the 330neo, or even a stretch of the 321.

Someone else mentioned the A220 (nee CS100-CS300) above, and I am sure Airbus would be keen to bundle in some of those potentially to usurp the E190/717 capacity need. Though that would purely be a price issue and QF would want to see it as a win for them over the current arrangement with Alliance to more or less wet least the capacity.. it may be a factor as the A220 is the latest and greatest out there that everyone seems to love.

 

[moa999]

The most recent rendition of the NMA was larger, more of a 767, which probably would have been a much better replacement for the 332s than a 787.

But I think the combination of the MAX issues plus the strength of Airbus 321s nibbling into that market, makes them reasses again.

 

[oz_mark]

NMA is probably dead for anytime soon. Boeing nearly lost the farm with the MAX fiasco and there's still a long way to go with the 777X program, and the 787 has some shaky issues (build quality) of late so they don't have the capacity or capability to think about a new aircraft.

Plus the NMA was really looking at the 200-250ish seat market, which is bigger than the 737's (except the -10ish) so it's not really appropriate in this context.

Analysts have pointed to the FSA as the 737 replacement. However, if even if the NMA and/or FSA were announced tomorrow, it would be several years before you could actually get one.

 

[Flying Fox]

And the winner is Airbus (which was my initial guess) -

Qantas locks in domestic fleet order for Airbus A321XLR, A220 jets

The first 40 Airbus A321XLR and A220 aircraft to revitalise Qantas' domestic fleet will begin to arrive from late next year.

www.executivetraveller.com

Without knowing any of the financials, I think that the A320 family is a better aircraft so long as QF don't reduce pitch.

So if QF don't order any B777's, there will be no Boeing aircraft in their fleet at some point (a complete reversal of a few years ago)?

 

[oz_mark]

And the winner is Airbus (which was my initial guess) -

Qantas locks in domestic fleet order for Airbus A321XLR, A220 jets

The first 40 Airbus A321XLR and A220 aircraft to revitalise Qantas' domestic fleet will begin to arrive from late next year.

www.executivetraveller.com

Without knowing any of the financials, I think that the A320 family is a better aircraft so long as QF don't reduce pitch.

So if QF don't order any B777's, there will be no Boeing aircraft in their fleet at some point (a complete reversal of a few years ago)?

Not sure about no Boeing's. The 787s will be around a while.

 

[Scarlett]

And the winner is Airbus (which was my initial guess) -
...

So if QF don't order any B777's, there will be no Boeing aircraft in their fleet at some point (a complete reversal of a few years ago)?

You’ve got to think the 787s will be around for quite a while?
<snap>

 

[exceladdict]

Still hoping for a substantially upgraded J on the 321xlr on transcon, replacing/increasing frequency compared to the 330s.

 

[Flying Fox]

Not sure about no Boeing's. The 787s will be around a while.

Oops, forgot about the B787s.

 

[AussieJasmine]

And the winner is Airbus (which was my initial guess) -

Qantas locks in domestic fleet order for Airbus A321XLR, A220 jets

The first 40 Airbus A321XLR and A220 aircraft to revitalise Qantas' domestic fleet will begin to arrive from late next year.

www.executivetraveller.com

Without knowing any of the financials, I think that the A320 family is a better aircraft so long as QF don't reduce pitch.

So if QF don't order any B777's, there will be no Boeing aircraft in their fleet at some point (a complete reversal of a few years ago)?

The 787s are still fairly young, so they'll be around for a while, not to mention the Qlink 717s. Also, given the A350s on de-facto order for sunrise, I think it's incredibly unlikely they'll order the 777x - it'd just be needless complexity. Wonder if we'll see an order for A220s to replace the 717s at some point? They are getting old.

But yeah, I can't say I'm surprised, and believe quite strongly it was the right decision.

Still hoping for a substantially upgraded J on the 321xlr on transcon, replacing/increasing frequency compared to the 330s.

I'm interested to see what QF do with the XLRs - there's a lot of potential new routes that could make sense with it, as well as transcontinental. I don't think it'll happen, but I'd love to see the A330neo join the fleet so we can still have domestic and regional widebody services too when the existing A330s reach end of life. Even in Y, they are so quiet and comfy

 

[oz_mark]

Wonder if we'll see an order for A220s to replace the 717s at some point? They are getting old.

Don't have to wonder. They announced that

• Airbus A320neo series jets replace Boeing 737 to become new domestic workhorse
• Airbus A220 series to replace regional Qantas Boeing 717s

 

[ajw373]

Reading some comments on other websites, people need to be aware whilst this announcement was for A321XLR and A220’s it doesn’t mean Qantas will be replacing 737’s with A321XLR’s like for like.

The part of the detail people have missed is these are being added to the existing Qantas group orders, so Qantas could end up with any of the planes in that order including A320’s and the non XLR versions of the A321.

Post automatically merged: Dec 17, 2021

Reading some comments on other websites, people need to be aware whilst this announcement was for A321XLR and A220’s it doesn’t mean Qantas will be replacing 737’s with A321XLR’s like for like.

The part of the detail people have missed is these orders are being added to the existing Qantas group orders with both Jetstar and Qantas drawing from those orders. So Qantas could end up with any of the plane types in that order including A320’s and the non XLR versions of the A321.

It’s going to be an interesting fleet over the next 10 years that’s for sure.

 

[RichardMEL]

Remember the order timeframe is over 10 years from 2024 for deliveries. Potentially A350 orders will also fit into that timeline for Sunrise.

By mid-late 2020's the A380's will be around 20 years old and QF has already decided to retire two of the 12. I can definitely see 350's replacing these in the medium term (as many other airlines have done such as LH). 787's still have a role to play, and they will only be 10ish years old at that point, so barely mid life of the airframes, and they can also move to thinner routes with that 250ish capacity vs the greater capacity of the 350-900 and -1000's potentially earmarked for sunrise.

I would imagine if QF becomes very much an airbus shop that by the mid 2030's the 787's could be ditched for whatever version of the 330 is out there or a potential new design to fit that role but a lot can happen in 10-15 years of course.

 

[moa999]

doesn’t mean Qantas will be replacing 737’s with A321XLR’s like for like.

The part of the detail people have missed is these orders are being added to the existing Qantas group orders with both Jetstar and Qantas drawing from those orders.

Agreed.

Albeit I think it's fairly clear that the initial 20 321XLRs and 20 223s are for QF/QFLink (though interesting no Link on the renderings).

There is also the engine decision of P&W, which is different to the Leap selection for the first 18/28 Jetstar 321LRs, and possibly also the 36 321 XLRs also coming from 2024. So while there is a combined group order for 299 aircraft, it's not totally flexible.

Was also some articles recently about QFLink still looking at more used 320s for 717 replacement.
So we could see the 223s replace some 717s and some 737s, and equally the 321 XLRs replace some 737s and some 332/333s.
And possibly also some top-up 787 (or base 350 orders for 333 replacements)

Looking at age of mainline aircraft that are the oldest.
2002-2003 deliveries - 4 332s (EBA-EBD), 21 737s (VXA-VXU)
2003-2005/6 deliveries - 12 333s (QPA-QPJ), 12 737s (VYA-VYL)

 

[AIRwin]

12 737s (YVA-YVL)

YVA belongs to VA - I flew on it twice this year...

 

[moa999]

YVA belongs to VA - I flew on it twice this year...

Corrected VYA-VYL