QF Fuel Surcharges... May go down when fuel below $60/barrel for a month

[QF WP]

With the ACCC looking at the petrol prices at the bowsers (with the word out that prices will fall by the end of next week ) , then perhaps they'll turn to QF and it's surcharges...

The plummeting oil price has prompted an upgrade of Qantas' earnings forecast by analysts at Macquarie Bank...

(Well, of course the boys over the Chinese Wall at Macquarie Equities are out to help their "cousins" in the private equity area)

 

[Shano]

With the ACCC looking at the petrol prices at the bowsers (with the word out that prices will fall by the end of next week ) , then perhaps they'll turn to QF and it's surcharges...

There is an article in todays The Australian about this...

 

[QF WP]

The airlines said yesterday they were waiting for more consistent fuel pricing to emerge before reviewing the surcharges.

Looks like we'll be waiting a while according to this oil chart

 

[serfty]

... More intriguing for me is the fact the local petrol prices have risen over the past few weeks.

More to do (I think) with the Holiday season and the need to ensure Caltex/Shell don't do their knuts on the 10¢ litre discount dockets.

 

[serfty]

Looks like we'll be waiting a while according to this oil chart

Except that articles today report that the aviation fuel price has dropped ~25% over the last 5 months.

 

[QF WP]

Exactly - that information shows there has been no consistency in the prices over that 5 month time period, thus the airlines are using the excuse that they are waiting for the price to be consistently within a determined price range before they will reduce the surcharge.

there was consistency in prices between 2 October and ~20 November, but then it spiked. Perhaps a better chart is this one, then click on Flip Chart (RHS centre of screen).

 

[JohnK]

It's hard to dispute their logic. :evil:

I loved this statement!

This will make the Qantas board very happy as it attempts to extract a premium for the airline from private equity takeover consortium Airline Partners Australia.

Premium? They have already accepted a much lower offer.

 

[codash1099]

AAP News

Qantas to cut domestic fuel surcharges
Tuesday January 16, 2007, 2:14 pm

Qantas has announced it will reduce its fuel surcharges on all domestic flights and some international flights from January 23 - by $5.
There will be no change to surcharges on flights from Australia to Europe and the United Kingdom, and from Australia to the US, Canada, South America, South Africa and India.
The company said the surcharge on flights from Australia to Asia, the Pacific and Honolulu would be reduced from $105 to $100.
Similarly, Australian fares to New Zealand also will be reduced by $5.
All Qantas Australian and New Zealand domestic flight surcharges will be reduced from $31 to $26 while QantasLink jet services and turboprop also will receive the discount.
Qantas executive general manager John Borghetti said the reduction was linked to lower jet fuel prices.
"We reduced international surcharges in October and we have been monitoring oil prices closely since then," he said.
"With the more recent fall in the price of jet fuel, we can now extend the surcharge reduction to domestic fares, as well as make further reductions on a number of our international routes."
Mr Borghetti said Qantas would continue to monitor oil prices and refining costs.
"Despite hedging and surcharges, we are still under-recovering the cost of fuel price increases by hundreds of millions of dollars, even with the recent drop in jet fuel prices."
Qantas also will reduce its Frequent Flyer points operation for taxes, levies and charges on Australian and New Zealand Award flight by 500 points.

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

Yay. Be interesting to see the effect if any on the next QF domestic sale. I notice the current one has slightly less discounted fares than previous sales, perhaps in preparation?

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

I loved this statement!


Premium? They have already accepted a much lower offer.

The offer is at a significant premium to the share price before the offer was made.

 

[oz_mark]

Qantas also will reduce its Frequent Flyer points operation for taxes, levies and charges on Australian and New Zealand Award flight by 500 points.

It's a good sign that they are prepared to adjust this as well

 

[serfty]

I wonder if the inclusive O class MEL SYD red e-deal fare will go from $125 inc. to $120 inc.

 

[oz_mark]

Yay. Be interesting to see the effect if any on the next QF domestic sale. I notice the current one has slightly less discounted fares than previous sales, perhaps in preparation?

Hmm, When did the domestic sale that is on now start (I don't remember seeing an email about it! - or have the snuck one in before the reduction in fuel surcharges!)

PER-MEL is $219 which is in keeping with its upward path over the past year ($199 -> $209 -> $219)

 

[oz_mark]

I wonder if the inclusive O class MEL SYD red e-deal fare will go from $125 inc. to $120 inc.

Current sale prices is $109.

 

[JohnK]

The offer is at a significant premium to the share price before the offer was made.

Irrelevant! The article was written on the 16th January, the statement I picked out from the article talks about the QF board extracting a premium for the offer in the future tense! Read it again!

This will make the Qantas board very happy as it attempts to extract a premium for the airline from private equity takeover consortium Airline Partners Australia.

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

Hmm, When did the domestic sale that is on now start (I don't remember seeing an email about it! - or have the snuck one in before the reduction in fuel surcharges!)

Domestic within NZ sales by QF are each Tuesday (and last until following Monday). I don't think QF does emails for these any more (or at least I haven't received one in ages).

 

[serfty]

When did the domestic sale that is on now start ... ?

Today, in response to DJ's "Clock Off Sale".

There was a 'mini sale' for late Jan travel. c.f. MEL-SYD $109, BNE-MEL $145. This new sale is for travel 1-Feb to 29/30-Mar.

MEL-SYD is the same @ $109, but MEL-BNE is further reduced to $135.

 

[Kiwi Flyer]

Irrelevant! The article was written on the 16th January, the statement I picked out from the article talks about the QF board extracting a premium for the offer in the future tense! Read it again!

The offer hasn't succeeded yet so it is still in the future

Where do you think the share price will go if the offer fails?

 

[serfty]

Current sale prices is $109.

That includes the current $31 fuel Fine.

Conceptually, if that sale is still going on 23rd Jan it will drop to $104.

 

[oz_mark]

I wonder if the inclusive O class MEL SYD red e-deal fare will go from $125 inc. to $120 inc.

I have long suspected that 'O' fares are based on picking a price and working backwards from there. So my feeling is it probably won't be reduced. I'd like to be wrong though!