At the end of this astonishing imbroglio, there will be only one person still standing, Israel Folau or Raelene Castle. But it won’t really matter because the game of rugby union will be in ruins.
As utterly improbable as it seems, rugby union has become the battlefield in the war between the religious right and liberal Australians.
Now, it seems, the fighting will move into the quasi-legal field with a Rugby Australia Code of Conduct hearing. RA had hoped to avoid this.
When Folau first went public with his religious views this time last year, RA’s chief executive Castle secured from him an undertaking that he would keep his opinions to himself in future. It allowed a tenuous peace to be brokered, one which kept sponsors such as Qantas and Land Rover still within the fold where previously they had been threatening to walk.
Castle is now being criticised for orchestrating this peace and given that she is being blamed for everything that is going wrong in rugby, she is the perfect scapegoat. But why shouldn’t she have believed Folau? He promised not to make his views public again but now, on a mission that he feels is divinely inspired, he has gone back on his word.
He believes it is his calling to speak out, and maybe that, in his mind, overrides everything else. But can Castle really be blamed for taking him at his word?
She could have — and perhaps did — insert a punitive clause in the $4 million four-year contract she signed with him.
But, as was reported in The Weekend Australian, such a clause would have been in breach of the Collective Bargaining Agreement between RA and the Rugby Union Players Association.
Presumably she had good legal advice that such a clause endangered the entire contract and so, instead, she had little option but to place her faith in his private assurances to her, backed up by the standard “reputational damage” clause in the standard players’ contract.
More fool her.
Because now she must tread the path of a Code of Conduct hearing and, from RA’s point of view, that puts it in the lap of the gods.
It didn’t get the desired outcome it sought in the Kurtley Beale case back in 2014 and, while RA might have been considerably less stressed about it in both instances, Karmichael Hunt and James Slipper were effectively lashed with a limp lettuce leaf.
These were all cases where high-profile players had brought the game into disrepute whereas Folau had done nothing more than issue a warning that as recently as a decade ago, would have passed muster within a less-liberal Australia with barely a comment.
If RA is searching around for someone to blame, they need look no further than Ross Xenos. Thanks to the efforts of RUPA, the Code of Conduct process has been structured to make it very difficult for RA to rid themselves of problem players.
In particular, will RA and the NSW Rugby Union have cause to regret issuing their original statement on Thursday that it was their intention to sack Folau?
Might that be seen to be prejudicing any Code of Conduct hearing? And are RA and the Waratahs in lockstep over what is the correct punishment for Folau, if indeed he is worthy of any? Is it possible he could play in a sky blue jersey but not in gold?
Which brings us to the crux of the problem — how the code’s sponsors will respond.
Whether Folau wins at the Code of Conduct hearing or loses, that won’t be the end of it. If RA succeeds in terminating his contract, his immediate response would be to take them to court. If Alan Jones doesn’t fund his legal challenge, Folau’s church surely would. Heck, he is wealthy enough to fund it himself.
But if the Code of Conduct hearing determines Folau has not done anything worthy of dismissal, then it gets predictably messy for RA.
The only way they might retain their naming rights sponsor, Qantas, would be to decide — as the Queensland Reds did with Quade Cooper — that they would not select him for the Wallabies.
Imagine the outcry that would follow that decision: an organisation that was forced to cull the Western Force from the Super Rugby competition because it was broke now paying $4 million to a player not to play!
There might be an out, but it would entirely rest with Alan Joyce, the openly gay CEO of Qantas.
He could realise that Castle had done everything within her power to try to protect his sponsorship but to no avail. He could indeed, take the same pragmatic view he took when he entered into a partnership with Emirates Airlines.
It made good commercial sense, despite the fact that the United Arab Emirates held decidedly hostile views about homosexuality. He turned a blind eye then. He could do it again.
Otherwise, it all comes crashing down. Would Castle be forced to go, though it would not be entirely clear what her crime actually was? Believing the word of a man who said he was doing God’s will?
The ugliness of such a dismissal would be forever a stain on Australian rugby, though there would be an element who would parade it as compelling proof that she was always the wrong “person” for the job.
Even if Folau is kicked out of rugby, has he now sown the seeds of the code’s destruction? Pasifika players now make up 46 per cent of Australia’s professional rugby players. Samu Kerevi and Allan Alaalatoa both liked his original social media offering but RA conveniently has failed to question them about this.
No doubt they were hoping the fact that Alaalatoa left yesterday for South Africa with the Brumbies, while Kerevi is already in the republic will keep them out of the media’s clutches for at least the next week. Meanwhile, no one has yet been able to get to Reds coach Brad Thorn to test his feelings on the subject.
And the insurrection is spreading. England No 8 Billy Vunipola not only liked Folau’s post but then expanded on it himself, suggesting “man was made for woman”, in apparent breach of the Rugby Football Union’s own code of conduct.
He now has been asked to appear before them. His club, Saracens, intend to handle the matter privately.
While Jacinda Ardern was quick to remind Folau that he is a role model for many, has the NZ Prime Minister tested the waters of her own rugby constituency? What support is there among NZ’s own Pasifika rugby community for his views?
Rugby has always presented itself as a game for all shapes and sizes — and races. God willing, that will always remain the case.
WAYNE SMITH
SENIOR SPORT WRITER
After a long stint as rugby union editor, Wayne Smith joined The Australian's outstanding team of cricket writers in 2007. He first covered cricket in 1971, and is also an experienced swimming writer.
