Seat occupancy lower

[jpp42]

One of the big challenges I reckon is many Aussies don't realize it's fine for them to travel right now. Contrary to popular belief most states aren't requiring COVID testing on arrival or quarantine on arrival. Yes some international destinations still have that requirement like the country of West Australia but for most common travel like a Sydney to Brisbane or Sydney to Adelaide, travelling now is very similar to travelling to those destinations in pre-pandemic times.

I think a lot of businesses are still quite wary of travel. For example, I need to travel from Sydney to Brisbane for a site inspection - something I definitely have to be on site for, and something that I would do at the drop of a hat with barely anyone else knowing prior to Covid. But now I have to go through all kinds of approvals to justify my travel, two weeks notice etc etc. Yes, there is some Covid risk from travelling, but not really any more than other daily life, as I'm triple vaxxed and have N95/P2 masks. But the idea is still out there, that it's hard, and that's even before we start talking about international (including WA, ha).

 

[Chicken]

One of the big challenges I reckon is many Aussies don't realize it's fine for them to travel right now.

I have been talking to a friend in the last few months (who have been successfully converted into flying J instead of Y), telling her about all those QF selling points promo, credit card promos, and her answers have always been the same:

'No, why? What's the point of earning points if I won't be travelling? Too many changes, things could be changed anytime. What if you catch COVID and can't board? What if borders are changed? Not worth the trouble.'

This is just a store of one, but I think it explains a lot.

I think a lot of businesses are still quite wary of travel.

My employer still has a 'no seeing customer in person' ban in place, and our annual kick off for this year flying everyone to somewhere stupid (Whitsundays or Hobart) is also cancelled.

 

[Melburnian1]

On 16 December 2021, QF said this:

"...Over the past month, the Group has adjusted the restart timing for some routes, including Japan, New Zealand, Hong Kong and Shanghai in response to extended border restrictions in those countries. The return of Sydney-San Francisco and Brisbane-San Francisco have been paused..."

Prior to that, QF had announced resumption of various routes but some (like Sydney - Tokyo and, as above, Sydney - Frisco) have been delayed, and from the list below, some or most may not be resuming as stated:

• "Sydney to Tokyo (December 19, four flights a week)

The airline is planning to fly to more international destinations in 2022:

• Brisbane to Noumea (January 8, one flight a week)
• Sydney to Hong Kong (February 14, four flights a week)
• Sydney to Dallas Fort Worth (February 14, five flights a week)
• Brisbane to San Francisco (February 14, three flights a week)
• Melbourne to Hong Kong (February 15, three flights a week)
• Melbourne to Tokyo (February 15, three flights a week)
• Sydney to San Francisco (February 16, three flights a week)

Qantas will add more international routes in April 2022 to destinations such as Bali, Manila, Bangkok, Jakarta, Ho Chi Minh City, coughet and Johannesburg. Qantas flights between Australia and New Zealand are expected to resume mid-December, assuming the two-way travel bubble will restart..."

If people don't want to travel, it seems costly to resume flights.

 

[AIRwin]

On 16 December 2021, QF said this:

Before Omicron?

 

[Chicken]

On 16 December 2021, QF said this:

Qantas said that they were going to resume flying to London in September 2020 too

 

[JohnPhelan]

My employer still has a 'no seeing customer in person' ban in place.

I hope your employer also realises that this will very quickly become a "no customers left" plan.

 

[jpp42]

I hope your employer also realises that this will very quickly become a "no customers left" plan.

Not sure I agree with that, depending on the industry. Perhaps this is sacrilege, given this is a frequent flier forum, but when I worked in a job where I sometimes made purchasing decisions, I always hated it when salespeople wanted to visit. It means I couldn't work from home that day, I had to figure out how to decline their attempts at taking me to lunch or dinner (I hated the sense of debt that created), and it usually meant more "smooth talk" and less actual technical/functional review of the products (usually software in this case). I very much prefer the "Zoom era" for sales. It also makes it easier to cancel a sales visit - since I'm polite enough to not cancel on someone who has travelled in person unless it was a major emergency, but if I need to reschedule a Zoom call etc it's usually not a big deal. Sure, all of this makes it harder on the sales person, but I think ultimately more fair if we spend more time talking about the actual product/services and less on the intangibles.

 

[Melburnian1]

Before Omicron?

Is Omicron resulting in large numbers of deaths of people under 70?

'The Oz' this morning suggests that the chance of individuals in their 60s dying from COVID-19 has massively decreased:

"Australians who tested positive for Covid between January 2020 and late November 2021 died at more than 14 times the rate of those who caught the virus during the subsequent two months since the Omicron wave hit our shores.
The statistics clearly demonstrate a dramatic reduction in the risk posed by the comparatively mild variant of the virus at a time when double-dose vaccination coverage among Australians aged 16 and above reached 86 per cent and rose to 93 per cent..."

 

[RichardMEL]

It's not all about deaths (and thank goodness the death rate is much lower, as is serious illness thanks to the higher vaccination rates).

The real issues are those either out due to suffering from covid (even if mild, there's an isolation requirement) plus contacts.. and related effects on employers all over (including airlines) and hesitation on travel (separate, but related) as previously discussed.

Omicron was known as an issue by mid december so I personally reckon this was part of the decision making process by QF per that announcement. It was probably not confirmed at that point how severe either the effects of this strain would be though, and that came before some borders and restrictions did reopen (and there were still testing requirements for QLD and SA for example) and well WA is.. WA.

I also reckon internationally QF saw that the aus border would not more broadly open to tourists and the like as expected with the worldwide spread, so had to push back some of those planned expension. Right now the talk is of March/April, but as we all know it's a moveable feast.

imo

 

[Melburnian1]

Mondays may not be the busiest day for overseas travel (including in pre-COVID times) but on Monday 7 February 2022, QF81, the 1120 hours SYD - SIN had just 80 passengers in whY compared to that cabin seating 269, equating to occupancy of 29.7 per cent.

QF35 from MEL to SIN was even worse, with just 70 in whY, so the load factor in that cabin was 26 per cent.

There may be a higher percentage of seats occupied in J, and freight at its increased rates may help, while maybe the southbounds tonight have better patronage with some international students arriving in Oz tomorrow morning, but the many empty northbound seats aren't 'free' to QFi.

 

[Melburnian1]

Mondays may not be the busiest day for overseas travel (including in pre-COVID times) but on Monday 7 February 2022, QF81, the 1120 hours SYD - SIN had just 80 passengers in whY compared to that cabin seating 269, equating to occupancy of 29.7 per cent.

QF35 from MEL to SIN was even worse, with just 70 in whY, so the load factor in that cabin was 26 per cent.

There may be a higher percentage of seats occupied in J, and freight at its increased rates may help, while maybe the southbounds tonight have better patronage with some international students arriving in Oz tomorrow morning, but the many empty northbound seats aren't 'free' to QFi.

The complete international border reopening to all visa holders from 21 February 2022 will help loadings, but visas won't be instantly issued, and overseas Australia's reputation as a carefree place to visit has declined, so inbound tourism numbers from Western nations may well be a lot lower than we're used to. The China situation is a separate matter.

 

[jakeseven7]

My employer still has a 'no seeing customer in person' ban in place, and our annual kick off for this year flying everyone to somewhere stupid (Whitsundays or Hobart) is also cancelled.

Bummer - that seems ultra conservative. Sorry for you!

 

[jakeseven7]

Interestingly I'm seeing a bunch of routes starting to get busier - we thought that QF had cancelled services, but in actual fact the flights had sold out.... hopefully some green shoots emerging as people become less terrified of travel

 

[Melburnian1]

QF440, the 1200 'high noon' MEL - SYD is a B789 (VH-ZNI) on Wednesday 9 February 2022, that may be a regular once a week offering, perhaps because aircraft need maintenance and servicing in SYD despite LAX being a major newish base for those important tasks. Or does it undertake a return trip (which gives flight deck crew some short refresher sectors) and then form 'the 9' to DRW/LHR when operating?

This aircraft arrived in MEL last night at 2022 hours, three minutes early on QF10 ex LHR and DRW but was idle this morning. An expensive asset to have sitting around.

It did not take off until 1233, about 20 minutes tardy.

In whY, it has 102 of 166 seats occupied.

J's 42 seats were all taken but at least five QF staff were travelling in uniform, and perhaps others in casual clothes.

Ignoring W for which I lack information, this is a load factor of 61.4 per cent in economy class. The load factor in J is great at 100 per cent but at least five are costing the company money. At the Mattg-calculated $60 a whY seat to fly it on a MEL-SYD sector, that's $3840 QFd has to generate in other passenger or freight revenue to cover the empty economy seats.

A few leisure travellers might be savvy enough to discover this 'international standard' plane occasionally operating and consider using it even for a short 85 minute sector to be preferable to bog standard, ageing B738s forming the vast majority of flights on this route.

This was the first widebody for the day, so not even an A332 at say 0700 or 0800 ex MEL for SYD.

While QFd reduced the number of A332s on MEL-SYD-MEL before COVID-19 hit, there was more than just one flight by midday that were two-aisle aircraft IIRC. Apart from frequency reductions, this is a further unannounced decrease in overall daily seating capacity.

 

[Melburnian1]

Also on Wednesday 9 February, QF23, the 1030 hours SYD - BKK had 51 booked in a 269 seat economy class configuration, or only 18.96 of seats taken.

 

[Melburnian1]

QF1 (1645 hours SYD - DRW - LHR) on Friday 11 February 2022 looks to have just 68 economy users from 166 seats on the initial sector, so occupancy is 40.96 per cent. Full higher class cabins would push that up somewhat.

 

[Melburnian1]

Tuesday 15 February's seat plan suggests that QF1, the 1645 hours SYD - DRW that continues to wintry LHR has only 57 economy class patrons booked on the first sector. At T-2, most if not all should have checked in. That's fewer than a third of whY seats taken, or 34.33 per cent if one wants precision.

You'd think that with so few flights from MEL and SYD to/from DRW, these international flights would be filled with domestic travellers. It's approaching the end of the 'silly season' when individuals go bonkers in the tropics so why aren't there starting to be hordes of Darwinians heading home?

 

[TheInsider]

Tuesday 15 February's seat plan suggests that QF1, the 1645 hours SYD - DRW that continues to wintry LHR has only 57 economy class patrons booked on the first sector. At T-2, most if not all should have checked in. That's fewer than a third of whY seats taken, or 34.33 per cent if one wants precision.

You'd think that with so few flights from MEL and SYD to/from DRW, these international flights would be filled with domestic travellers. It's approaching the end of the 'silly season' when individuals go bonkers in the tropics so why aren't there starting to be hordes of Darwinians heading home?

I could be wrong, but I don't think they sell SYD-DRW on the QF1, only MEL-DRW on the QF9vv

 

[Melburnian1]

I could be wrong, but I don't think they sell SYD-DRW on the QF1, only MEL-DRW on the QF9vv

Being a staff member, I doubt you're incorrect.

If there are spare seats (admittedly hard to know in busier non-COVID times), wouldn't it make sense to sell local journeys? It brings in extra revenue, and gives passengers a choice of times.

Some AFFers love to travel on domestic legs from international terminals.

 

[AIRwin]

Some AFFers love to travel on domestic legs from international terminals.

Guilty as charged!