Seat occupancy lower

[Melburnian1]

On Sunday 20 February 2022, despite QFd only having six scheduled flights from MEL to ADL - from memory, pre-COVID, the number would have been nine or 10 on a typical non-school holidays/Christmas Sunday, at least - QF677, the 1035 hours departed with only 62 booked patrons in economy class. This means just 38.3 per cent of seats had someone in them.

QF1551, the 0825 hours MEL - HBA is one of only three QFd flights on that route today, also a decline from schedules 'pre-COVID'. It left with just 45 seats taken of B717 VH-NXI's 98 seats in that class, occupancy of 45.9 per cent.

The 1010 hours BNE down to SYD, QF521, is better with 101 economy seats occupied: 62.3 per cent.

QF81 from SYD up to formerly popular SIN has only 83 passengers in the 269 economy seats. Pathetic, at only 30.86 per cent of seats having a revenue passenger. Maybe the southbound flight tonight ('the 82') is better, and freight both ways plus mail ought bring in some moolah.

Given QFd business class so often has staff members travelling in either uniform or mufti, thus taking up highly priced seats - try $1600 one way Adelaide to Sydney (outrageous) - none of these domestic flights are likely to be profitable even accounting for freight and mail possibly carried.

I gather QF reports results for the six months to December 31 this week or by Monday week (ASX requires these reports by the last day in February). Unlikely to be an attractive financial picture. The company has an already massive debt of well over $5 billion.

 

[Melburnian1]

With AC34 cancelled again today (1215 hurs SYD - YVR), there could be a chance of any booked travellers being transferred to the about to depart QF75 (2010 hours).

Yet whY looks to only have 112 booked in peasant class, a seat occupancy percentage of 67.5 per cent, so just above two-thirds full.

 

[Melburnian1]

On our first autumnal day, a Tuesday, QF455 (1500 hours mid afternoon SYD down to MEL) looks to have about 98 in whY, so around 64 seats are vacant.

QF454 in the other direction at the same time is better, with 127 in whY.

Amalgamating the two gives a load factor in whY of 69 per cent. When coupled with reduced frequencies, is a micro example as to how demand has fallen for air travel domestically in Oz.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Tbh I've always wondered who filled these middle of the day mid week flights even pre covid. Connections would account for some but unclear on the rest.

With SYD & MEL back in business I foresee flight loading on golden triangle improving from next week on.

 

[jakeseven7]

We are finding flights are fuller and fuller now, fares are also jumping up. We’ve directly raised to our QF account manager on a couple of routes that they need to put more flights on, we’ve almost had to charter a flight because I had 20 team members I couldn’t get into a location on same day!

PER is also filling up, now WA Health wants our healthcare team lol

 

[Melburnian1]

Tbh I've always wondered who filled these middle of the day mid week flights even pre covid. Connections would account for some but unclear on the rest.

With SYD & MEL back in business I foresee flight loading on golden triangle improving from next week on.

There are always some businessmen travelling, but leisure travellers (especially visiting friends and relatives) filled some seats, and those now 'gone missing' mainland Chinese and other tourists going from city to city, or as you say making a connection, were also important, especially groups of Chinese. I used to see the latter even on mid evening flights: many seemed tired.

However like you I've been on a few mid-week domestic flights when you'd be lucky if 60 per cent of seats were occupied.

Post automatically merged: Mar 2, 2022

We are finding flights are fuller and fuller now, fares are also jumping up. We’ve directly raised to our QF account manager on a couple of routes that they need to put more flights on, we’ve almost had to charter a flight because I had 20 team members I couldn’t get into a location on same day!

PER is also filling up, now WA Health wants our healthcare team lol

Frequencies however remain way down on pre-COVID-19, so these flights should be constantly full.

 

[sqrt()]

I'm on QF1422/QF81 CBR-SYD-SIN today and was able to snag 23A (not quite an exit row) after checking in in person in CBR.

Loading looks similarly low to a few weeks ago.

 

[jakeseven7]

We are finding flights are fuller and fuller now, fares are also jumping up. We’ve directly raised to our QF account manager on a couple of routes that they need to put more flights on, we’ve almost had to charter a flight because I had 20 team members I couldn’t get into a location on same day!

PER is also filling up, now WA Health wants our healthcare team lol

We successfully had a flight added to Tassie - you are WELCOME people who were thinking of heading back on the March long weekend from MEL - quick snap up seats before it sells out. We took 20 seats

 

[justinbrett]

I don't mean to be rude @Melburnian1, but perhaps you could balance out all these "Seat occupancy lower" threads with some "Seat occupancy higher" ones? Seems like you're just focusing on the negative and it's not a complete picture. Not just for Qantas, but for all airlines.

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Shouldn't that just be BAU though? Lower are actually an anomaly.

MEL is the quietest I've ever seen on a Friday

 

[eastwest101]

I just took a walk from one end of BNE domestic to the other, not what I was expecting, but the Qantas end was very quiet with the Rex and Jetstar area about two thirds of pre covid but surprisingly the Virgin end was absolutely heaving with people like a normal Friday afternoon. No major delays or cancellations across the boards so maybe Bain have figured out how to get the punters in?

 

[wannabeinvestmentbanker]

Friday arvo = peak leisure = VA

Their price points have been very competitive if you're paying out of your own pocket

 

[Harrison_133]

I just took a walk from one end of BNE domestic to the other, not what I was expecting, but the Qantas end was very quiet with the Rex and Jetstar area about two thirds of pre covid but surprisingly the Virgin end was absolutely heaving with people like a normal Friday afternoon. No major delays or cancellations across the boards so maybe Bain have figured out how to get the punters in?

Agree. This has been a common experience of late. VA are doing particularly well at filling their planes – which might be a surprise to some.

MEL-SYD is one example I find interesting. QF prioritise high frequency. They have 15 min intervals in the peak, and 30 min (mostly) the rest of the day. If you look at ExpertFlyer most of these flights are not very well patronised. VA’s frequencies, while lower, are still competitive and have relatively good loads. It’s interesting QF are persisting with such high frequency when demand is flat. Especially given the Group is much more conservative with JQ’s current schedules.

And I know EF isn’t always accurate but it’s the closest guide we are going to get….so take some examples from today comparing the two:

• QF685 1535 MELADL ≈7J+95Y and VA233 1610 MELADL ≈8J+161Y
• VA735 1010 MELOOL ≈8J+127Y and QF880 1020 MELOOL J N/A ≈63Y, note: VA had hourly flights, QF 2 total. VA at 0910 had ≈158 pax.
• QF866 1620 MELCBR ≈9J+66Y and VA279 1650 MELCBR ≈8J+117Y
• QF470 1700 MELSYD J N/A ≈116Y and VA867 1700 MELSYD ≈8J+154Y
• QF474 1730 MELSYD ≈9J+109Y and VA871 1730 MELSYD ≈8J+157Y
• QF478 1800 MELSYD J N/A ≈102Y and VA875 1800 MELSYD ≈7J+136Y
• All the above were 737 flights

Again, I know this doesn’t give us the full picture of things like fare types or staff travel, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless. Obviously we can’t get JQ data to compare and Rex’s current predicaments have been well discussed, but there seems to be a trend where VA have much higher loads at present.

With things beginning to pick up, QF loads will improve, but even casting back to January 2021 when we had open borders and no covid, there was lots of commentary then too about VA having high loads compared to their rivals.

I don’t think we should underestimate VA like some here enjoy doing and it doesn’t help to look at things through a QF is best lens.

P.S. Apologies for the long post!

Friday arvo = peak leisure = VA

Their price points have been very competitive if you're paying out of your own pocket

Except you could apply Eastwest’s point to virtually any day of the week…my most recent VA trip was MEL-LST on a Tuesday, back on Saturday. Full flights both ways, T3 at Tulla absolutely heaving both times. Meanwhile, QF were still running 50 seater Q300’s to LST…only now have the 717’s started to increase in frequency again.

 

[justinbrett]

Agree. This has been a common experience of late. VA are doing particularly well at filling their planes – which might be a surprise to some.

MEL-SYD is one example I find interesting. QF prioritise high frequency. They have 15 min intervals in the peak, and 30 min (mostly) the rest of the day. If you look at ExpertFlyer most of these flights are not very well patronised. VA’s frequencies, while lower, are still competitive and have relatively good loads. It’s interesting QF are persisting with such high frequency when demand is flat. Especially given the Group is much more conservative with JQ’s current schedules.

And I know EF isn’t always accurate but it’s the closest guide we are going to get….so take some examples from today comparing the two:

• QF685 1535 MELADL ≈7J+95Y and VA233 1610 MELADL ≈8J+161Y
• VA735 1010 MELOOL ≈8J+127Y and QF880 1020 MELOOL J N/A ≈63Y, note: VA had hourly flights, QF 2 total. VA at 0910 had ≈158 pax.
• QF866 1620 MELCBR ≈9J+66Y and VA279 1650 MELCBR ≈8J+117Y
• QF470 1700 MELSYD J N/A ≈116Y and VA867 1700 MELSYD ≈8J+154Y
• QF474 1730 MELSYD ≈9J+109Y and VA871 1730 MELSYD ≈8J+157Y
• QF478 1800 MELSYD J N/A ≈102Y and VA875 1800 MELSYD ≈7J+136Y
• All the above were 737 flights

Again, I know this doesn’t give us the full picture of things like fare types or staff travel, but it’s an interesting data point nonetheless. Obviously we can’t get JQ data to compare and Rex’s current predicaments have been well discussed, but there seems to be a trend where VA have much higher loads at present.

With things beginning to pick up, QF loads will improve, but even casting back to January 2021 when we had open borders and no covid, there was lots of commentary then too about VA having high loads compared to their rivals.

I don’t think we should underestimate VA like some here enjoy doing and it doesn’t help to look at things through a QF is best lens.

P.S. Apologies for the long post!


Except you could apply Eastwest’s point to virtually any day of the week…my most recent VA trip was MEL-LST on a Tuesday, back on Saturday. Full flights both ways, T3 at Tulla absolutely heaving both times. Meanwhile, QF were still running 50 seater Q300’s to LST…only now have the 717’s started to increase in frequency again.

Virgin can't afford to fly empty planes. Simple. Qantas can.

Half-empty planes are bad news for Qantas, but worse for its rivals

Qantas can turn a profit while flying far emptier planes than its rivals thanks to its aggressive pandemic cost-cutting drive, which analysts say will help shield it from competitors Virgin Australia, Rex Airlines and new challenger Bonza.

www.smh.com.au

It'd also make the point, taking a sample of traffic volumes in a week when large parts of Brisbane and Sydney are flooded is obviously flawed.

 

[Harrison_133]

It'd also make the point, taking a sample of traffic volumes in a week when large parts of Brisbane and Sydney are flooded is obviously flawed.

Hence the examples out of MEL…

 

[justinbrett]

Hence the examples out of MEL…

Many of which to SYD & OOL...

 

[Harrison_133]

Many of which to SYD & OOL...

Which still show VA flights fuller than QF…which was also the same trend when I looked at traffic volumes a couple of weeks ago, pre-flooding.

 

[justinbrett]

Which still show VA flights fuller than QF…which was also the same trend when I looked at traffic volumes a couple of weeks ago, pre-flooding.

You're looking at a handful of flights with incomplete information. I'm not even sure how you're getting the pax numbers from EF - are you counting seats from the seat map or something? As far as I was aware this is commercially sensitive information that is not available on EF.

If I could be bothered I'm sure I could find six flights to prove the opposite argument, but I can't be.

 

[Harrison_133]

You're looking at a handful of flights with incomplete information.

Which is exactly what I said in my post. We’re never going to get the complete picture – obviously – but it’s the closest we can get.

And yes, it’s from counting the seat map, which I know isn’t going to be absolutely accurate but again, we’re never going to be. For VA it’s can be a pretty accurate picture of what seats are at least occupied when the flight departs. I’ve been sitting on the plane checking EF to see if the middle seat is vacant when they make a seat change onboard for whatever reason. I refreshed the page and I could see the change reflected on the seat map pretty much instantly. Again, not the complete picture, but interesting nonetheless.

And yes, you could find 6 flights to prove the opposite, they’d certainly be there, but from my experiences of late – and from what I’ve been reading quite a bit on this forum from others – it’s more often than not the VA terminals which are heaving, while the QF ones have been a lot quieter.

To reiterate, my earlier post was nothing more than some interesting data points and discussion in response to a very valid observation of another poster. I’m in no way trying to claim them as absolute fact…

 

[justinbrett]

Which is exactly what I said in my post. We’re never going to get the complete picture – obviously – but it’s the closest we can get.

And yes, it’s from counting the seat map, which I know isn’t going to be absolutely accurate but again, we’re never going to be. For VA it’s can be a pretty accurate picture of what seats are at least occupied when the flight departs. I’ve been sitting on the plane checking EF to see if the middle seat is vacant when they make a seat change onboard for whatever reason. I refreshed the page and I could see the change reflected on the seat map pretty much instantly. Again, not the complete picture, but interesting nonetheless.

And yes, you could find 6 flights to prove the opposite, they’d certainly be there, but from my experiences of late – and from what I’ve been reading quite a bit on this forum from others – it’s more often than not the VA terminals which are heaving, while the QF ones have been a lot quieter.

To reiterate, my earlier post was nothing more than some interesting data points and discussion in response to a very valid observation of another poster. I’m in no way trying to claim them as absolute fact…

In that case, I rest my case.

All of my flights recently on QF and JQ have been sold out. I could barely find a seat in the lounge on Monday. But I'm not going to try to say my experience is what everybody is experiencing nationally.