...
$100k spend on partners, CCs etc is NOT the same value as $100k spend direct with QF - no, QF will not get $100k profit if you spend that direct on flights, but they will make a much bigger profit (yield) from that spend without doubt.
And, let's face it, most people will spend $$ regardless - if they earn extra from points club or not - most people would not have significant extra disposable income to spend a whole lot more on extras just for the points - and if they did, it's likely they'd do it in smarter ways (eg: buy AA/AS miles and redeem). Even CC churners these days need fair spend in Oz to generate those bonuses (eg: $4k spend in 3 months for 100k bonus type deal). Not too many "joe average" people will be doing a lot of these in a short period of time I reckon.
....
Some really good points here.
Let's not lose sight that - if the airline were to close today - the loyalty program would be worthless - overnight.
A healthy airline can disguise an underperforming loyalty program, the same as a healthy loyalty program can disguise an underperforming airline.
The relationship between airline and loyalty program is symbiotic. One can be leveraged to help the other, but the pendulum always swings back to harmony in the future, and if the leverage was too great - airlines start failing.
I've heard some airlines are working on a third currency.
Example:
Currency #1: Points
Currency #2: Status Credits
Currency #3: Non-air earned points [eg: bank]
With the introduction of a 3rd currency, it will turn (Currency #1) points into air-earned points.
In this fashion, the value of the point being created [value to the airline] can be differentiated and can more closely reflect the margin in that point.
QFF wouldn't exist without the loyal passengers and they are the ones that should receive the majority of benefits.
100%^^^
More and more airline loyalty programs are tracking customers based on 'share of wallet'. That is - what % of your total business is the airline capturing.
If 100% of your flights is 10/year - you are by that definition: loyal
Another customer might spend $1,000,000 and take 500 Qantas flights, but they also spend another $10M with Air NZ. That customer is not loyal.
There is a basic equation to calculate loyalty value (loosely ties into LTV) that considers the share of flight/wallet%, the yield on the money spent (eg; H class tickets higher yield than I class), and the reverse impact - which is 'if a competing airline were to receive that $$ instead of our airline would we have sold that seat, and how much does it affect that customers group-wide yield LTV'.
A healthy airline needs a % of each customer segment.