SQ321 LHR-SIN Encountered Severe Turbulence [At least 1 Fatality and 30 Injured]

Reminds me why I (almost) always adhere to the seatbelt signs and in the rare cases when it surprises you while on the loo, I rush as much as possible back to the seat to get strapped in. Why do I say "almost" always? Because there are certain cry wolf airlines out there, almost exclusively in the US and China. They are the only ones from experience where pilots really "forget" to switch off the sign and as a result, everyone just ignores it and no one seems to care.

But outside these two geographies, I find these warnings used responsibly and it's usually for a reason. On SQ or QF, if that sign is on, you know that you better be strapped tightly into your seat!
Well I do follow the seat belt sign 100% of the time. Foolish me assumes that if it is off it must be approved by the pilot and thus safe to do so (hopefully the pilot knows what he/she is doing:eek:). And I fly just a little more than the average person. There are people who DON'T follow the seat belt signs? I thought turning off aeroplane mode/using data mid-flight is the extent of the foolishness accomplished by passengers (based on my observations).
 
And if it was more than a minute or two, I wonder why so many passengers and crew were out of their seats and/or not wearing a seatbelt.
This is the thing about seatbelt signs. Some crew like to think of it as law. But really, we can’t deny a person their dignity when needing the bathroom. So if they need to use the bathroom, then they do so at their own risk.

If it was less than a minute or two, I wonder why the pilots didn't see the horrible weather coming?
The radar is pretty good and can see the weather. Obviously it can’t see the clear air turbulence (no radar can at the moment).

I have flown around thunderstorms and still got smashed. Yet flying through weather that appeared bad on the radar (with no where else to go) was smooth as silk.

Mother Nature is a funny thing.
 
I think it's hard to argue that this situation could have been better handled by almost any other airline.
In the aftermath, or beforehand?
Sure, we can comment post facto easily... i.e. of course you should have never flown through that area with the weather they had there. Even easier to say so when you're not a pilot or aviator yourself.
I’ll say it. There’s not much excuse for running into something, especially given that the weather was quite benign compared to what the region can offer.
In a lot of cases, a good aviation culture is somewhat taking precautions but more responding to adverse incidents effectively. The latter seems what a lot of pilot simulator trainings are for.
Done many sims? There is a lot of effort put into management.
And that's if the backpack was actually 7 kg. We all know that the average weight is likely more than that (some are probably as heavy as checked bags).

Let's be honest, nearly no average person can take a 7 kg conk on the head without some damage.
G loading. If it hits you at 2g then it’s not a 7kg bag any more. Or at least its effect isn’t.
I thought I read in the "Ask a Pilot" thread once that radars detect weather and storm cells but it doesn't really give a strong indication of how bad that weather region might be in terms of turbulence. You could fly through stormy weather and be relatively fine, whereas another area (which may not have storms) is quite choppy. And then there's an argument for how long the turbulence could be (you might be fine taking a bit of chop for 2 minutes, as opposed to something that might be more sustained).
Reading a radar is a bit of an art, and I wonder how pervasive the ability to read it really is these days. They all have automatic modes, and they’re probably in them for 99% of the time. I found it rare to see any of the younger pilots going back to the manual modes, and one of the SCCs even commented to me that my own use was non standard. He quietened when he realised what I could discern.
Then there's the whole inertia in requesting a change in the flight path. The pilots would have had to have been very convinced that this was a really bad idea before requesting to change course, rather than plough through (or rather change course only once they realised how bad the weather really was). Sure, this time, it was likely the wrong decision, and the pilots may well be paying for this with their careers or their lives.
No. Getting a track deviation is easy. I don’t know whether Myanmar has caught up with data links yet, but with them it’s as hard as typing “20 R”. They were over land, so almost certainly VHF comms, which is just as easy. There is no inertia from the pilot side…it’s what you do. If the weather looks to be bad enough, you’ll avoid it without a clearance. There are laid down procedures for this.
 
Well I happily pay the $50 safety tax to fly Qantas on the golden triangle. SIA would have t drop their fares by $200-300 return versus the same amount given all other conditions are the same in order for me to rebook with them versus other carriers given all the other variables remain constant.
Perhaps you need to familiarise yourself with this incident. And Captain Kevin Sullivan.

 
This is the thing about seatbelt signs. Some crew like to think of it as law. But really, we can’t deny a person their dignity when needing the bathroom. So if they need to use the bathroom, then they do so at their own risk.
Which comes back to the way a company uses the signs. Firstly letting cabin crew do their normal jobs at all, with the signs on, simply teaches everyone that they aren’t really to be obeyed. And secondly, having them on, unnecessarily, and for long periods, magnifies the toilet issue whilst also reducing the importance of the signs for most people. I’ve been on airlines that literally leave them on for the entire flight. Stupid.

There’s also a percentage of passengers who simply will not fasten their belts, no matter what. I guess they think the earth is flat too.
 
This makes no sense to me; I must be a bit dim.

What is the probability of statistics?

A safety tax - really?

Qantas is upgrading their inflight experience - not on your life - and the probability of statistics?
Well, taxes stop clouds from forming this removing the issue of Clear Air turbulence. Makes sense? 😉
 
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Well, taxes stop clouds from forming this removing the issue of Clear Air turbulence. Makes sense? 😉
Only applies to inbound/outbound flights from Doha and Dubai and other middle eastern nations posh enough to do this (however most likely will lead to miscalculation and backfire) 🤣 🤣
 
Hmm a bit premature. I'm quite sure the BKK airport chief has not conducted a post mortem examination and has not issued a death certificate indicating a cause of death.
Avoiding consequences of a death onboard.
Some passengers have said that the seatbelt sign was on during the incident. It does make me wonder how long the sign had been on for prior to this.

If it was less than a minute or two, I wonder why the pilots didn't see the horrible weather coming?

And if it was more than a minute or two, I wonder why so many passengers and crew were out of their seats and/or not wearing a seatbelt.
i heard someone on the radio who had a family member (from Adelaide) onboard say the seatbelt came on then instantly the turbulence struck.
 
This is what a weather radar can show....

Note that the gain is showing at 100%, so it's in a manual mode. And also the green 21'21", tells us that I've got a stopwatch running, which in this case would have been started when the seat belt sign was turned on. The green dotted line is the planned track, so we're currently about 23 miles right of the planned track.
IMG_0458.jpg
 
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I’ve been on airlines that literally leave them on for the entire flight. Stupid.
Yep- been on lots of these flights, very common in the US. Always wondered whether it’s more than just stupidity, some insurance thing maybe- if you ALWAYS keep the sign on and something happens, no one can sue you for it? Not sure.

The only other jurisdiction that seems to like the same thing seems to be China but I might be missing some. Why they do it there is probably an even bigger riddle but it also happens very frequently and has the same effect- people just get used to it “always being on” so they simply ignore it.
 
And secondly, having them on unnecessarily and for long periods

Some airlines (that I won't name) use them as a form of pax control . This goes against basic psychology, which dictates that when a message is not used for its primary purpose, it will be diluted and ultimately ignored. It's like that 'wet floor' sign used every day when it's clearly not. This is a clear sign of a management malfunction.

I have sometimes asked the crew to check with the pilot if it is necessary (30 minutes of smooth flight) to illuminate it. Some pilots broadcast in advance that the sign will be on for 30 minutes (and with good reason). An informed passenger ought to be a safer passenger.
 
Thanks @jb747 for the informed answers.
In the aftermath, or beforehand?
I believe my comment would apply beforehand, i.e. could another airline have easily (or reasonably) avoided this and it was patently obvious (i.e. any competent pilot would be trained to do so).

I suppose given your follow-up response, the answer would be tending towards, "yes", i.e. this incident was quite conceivably avoidable.
Done many sims? There is a lot of effort put into management.
No, so I'll admit it was mainly because of reading your accounts in "Ask the Pilot" of sims, which seem to be a lot of problem scenarios thrown up at you and then dealing with those problems as they have arisen.

Now that I reflect on it, even if a decent amount of effort of management is done in sims (whether in and of itself, or management that is considered as a result of dealing with as-they-occur incident scenarios), I forgot to take into account all of the training for the same thing that happens outside of sims.
G loading. If it hits you at 2g then it’s not a 7kg bag any more. Or at least its effect isn’t.
That's true. A heavier bag would not help in that regard (or at best the mass would have little change on the overall consequences).
No. Getting a track deviation is easy. I don’t know whether Myanmar has caught up with data links yet, but with them it’s as hard as typing “20 R”. They were over land, so almost certainly VHF comms, which is just as easy. There is no inertia from the pilot side…it’s what you do. If the weather looks to be bad enough, you’ll avoid it without a clearance. There are laid down procedures for this.
That's good to know. So at least we come back one of the foundational arguments as to whether the pilots should have been flying away from the turbulent area (viz. they had a viable choice to do so).
 
There’s also a percentage of passengers who simply will not fasten their belts, no matter what. I guess they think the earth is flat too.
Ha. Curious thing to continue believing, if one is regularly at 40,000ft in a window seat.
 
Which comes back to the way a company uses the signs. Firstly letting cabin crew do their normal jobs at all, with the signs on, simply teaches everyone that they aren’t really to be obeyed. And secondly, having them on, unnecessarily, and for long periods, magnifies the toilet issue whilst also reducing the importance of the signs for most people. I’ve been on airlines that literally leave them on for the entire flight. Stupid.

There’s also a percentage of passengers who simply will not fasten their belts, no matter what. I guess they think the earth is flat too.

I think it would be the majority of operators that use the seatbelt sign like it’s painted on. Goes against how ive been taught it should be used. Experiencing a few gentle bumps and then not seeing the seatbelt sign spring to life should make passengers think about things and take some responsibility of their own. If it’s always on it becomes meaningless.
 
This is probably a very ignorant and dumb question, but I have always wondered when I am in J and about to sleep, putting the seat belt on only wraps around the middle part of you.
If a sudden drop in altitude results in people's heads hitting the ceiling, what would that potentially do a person laying down? Would be some serious horizontal whiplash that could be pretty damaging.
 
You don't know the premium people will pay to fly a failsafe airline. Call me old fashioned but an insurance is still an insurance even if it provides marginal safety benefits as long as you buy into the belief that it works. Same reasoning for flying Qantas a more established airline over with a proven safety factor regardless of their cost and service as opposed to other budget carriers priced just a little bit lower.
The most dangerous part of a 'flight' is the trip to and from the airport.
More chance of something going wrong in a car or a bus than on any airline on the planet.
 
I believe my comment would apply beforehand, i.e. could another airline have easily (or reasonably) avoided this and it was patently obvious (i.e. any competent pilot would be trained to do so).

I suppose given your follow-up response, the answer would be tending towards, "yes", i.e. this incident was quite conceivably avoidable.
My suspicion would be that they actually hit a very small cell, nothing like the huge ones showing on the image I posted above. If you have the radar on too long a range, they can simply become a few pixels, and so easily missed.
That's good to know. So at least we come back one of the foundational arguments as to whether the pilots should have been flying away from the turbulent area (viz. they had a viable choice to do so).
You can't always. Whilst it's nice to stay 50 miles away, the reality is that many times you'll need to transit areas of storms. And to do that you need to find the weakest parts, preferably upwind.
This is probably a very ignorant and dumb question, but I have always wondered when I am in J and about to sleep, putting the seat belt on only wraps around the middle part of you.
If a sudden drop in altitude results in people's heads hitting the ceiling, what would that potentially do a person laying down? Would be some serious horizontal whiplash that could be pretty damaging.
You're not talking about a great deal of g overall. Perhaps .5 negative. So half your weight on the strap. Might be uncomfortable, but I doubt that it would do any harm.
 

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