Yes, despite all those saying the banks are overvalued they keep going up. I did sell a relatively small %ge of my CBA shares recently but glad it was not more now.
I always love bank shares - buy once buy often and always. Until money becomes obsolete as a construct people want to borrow it or save it - from someone (even if the bank is in cyberspace rather than bricks and mortar most of the time)
If you could have sacked your fund manager for 12 months and put it all in bank shares – one of them, two of them, three or all four, take your pick – you’d be laughing.
The big four’s share prices all finished up 20 per cent or more for the financial year, and paid dividends on top. The benchmark S&P/ASX 200, even though it was fuelled by the big banks, gained 7.8 per cent.
And as reported in The Australian earlier this week,
"Professional traders are shorting the nation's biggest bank"
again! And one reason for CBA's recent spike is that the shorts had to cover (buy out) their shorts because of the price increase
I suppose they might eventually get it (timing) right.
(Edited out pay-walled link)
Well there were some on here predicting the price would go south of $100. While I have some sympathy for the view they are priced for perfection I’ve heard that so many times over the years while the price just goes up and up I generally tune that out. Maybe I should have this time too!
Clean one, tell us what the brokers are saying about CBA at the moment?
The market seems pretty bullish with the US Fed possibly going to cut rates. I’m wondering when profit-taking on CBA will occur and whether I should join in!
Clean one, tell us what the brokers are saying about CBA at the moment?
The market seems pretty bullish with the US Fed possibly going to cut rates. I’m wondering when profit-taking on CBA will occur and whether I should join in!
Having worked investment banking alongside the equities team, I know there is a lot of truth in that statement. But I hope if you get a couple of them together, they might give me a bit of an idea of how things might go.
I suspect it's not a large amount, given their readiness to send you the forms.
Transfer the lot to something like ING living super ... no "fees" although in their case they do force a 0.5% reduced earn on a minimum $500, so there's a $2.50 annual hit.
I looked into the claims by ING about the 'no fees' Super and pondered lodging a complaint with ACCC and then Covid came along.
ING do charge fees just not in the same way as nearly all other funds show them. Instead they charge a higher asset management fee per asset class itself NOT at the total fund level. This is clearest if you look into the performance of the cash option. Clever marketing?
Things may have changed since 2019 but, cynic that I am, I doubt it.
What I always look at is what the total performance AFTER tax is vs other options.
Some funds (mostly run by for-profit companies) shift a proportion of their fees into the asset class level and under the letter-of-the-law definitions this is not calculated (nor required to be shown) to arrive at the 'Annual fees & charges'. BTW - guess what company also manages that asset class?
Just have to love 'creative accounting & marketing'.
For every CBA share traded, someone was willing to buy at that price and someone was willing to sell at that same price. Does that help?
OK I know, we'd like to know what the "professionals" are doing so I've been following (academically) the CBA shorts, people putting real money into selling CBA shares which they don't own. It's good for a laugh (eventually they'll get it right)
I owe my comfortable retirement to an "old fashioned" stockbroker who started me with equites.
I have little use for the new age seers but find the research useful and interesting.
CBA is a real challenge , ten years of blue sky are writ in the price.
I owe my comfortable retirement to an "old fashioned" stockbroker who started me with equites.
I have little use for the new age seers but find the research useful and interesting.
CBA is a real challenge , ten years of blue sky are writ in the price.
I always love bank shares - buy once buy often and always. Until money becomes obsolete as a construct people want to borrow it or save it - from someone (even if the bank is in cyberspace rather than bricks and mortar most of the time)
Unfortunately rules like that work until they don't. A bit like property prices only ever go up...
So far, in Australia, the 'environment' (aided by both sides of politics) has been extremely conducive for the large banks (Too big to fail). Fingers crossed it remains that way.
If you look at any other country in the world (ex-NZ where the local banks typically made one serious error and got bought by one of ours) - banks have not been a good long term investment.
The difference being that in every other country the Govts at various times did NOT shrink away from letting large banks go down. Most recently in the GFC out of the Top 50 Banks (by market capitalisation) around 30 went under and either were split up or another bank was forced to take over the corpse.
In Australia, both sides of politics have never shown the same 'independence'. For example think of the JobKeeper money taken by the $$ billions by companies that never technically should have taken it and kept it once their financial health proved they did not qualify. Qantas readily comes to mind.
One or two Australian banks (no names but many will know which one in particular) virtually took the opportunity offered by the Fed Govt's virtually interest free loans via a special facility from the RBA to leverage their balance sheets and expand their business massively by buying up the debt that every other foreign bank in the world (virtually) was forced to dump at cents in the dollar/Euro/Pound.
The recent (decades overdue) move to CEASE the exemption of accountants, lawyers, precious metal/gem dealers (Perth Mint?) & real estate agents from the cash reporting requirements may have the unexpected consequence of reducing the big banks earnings. It would certainly end the (reputedly common) practice of payoffs for property development/rezoning applications - especially those most recently using the address of a NSW Dept of Finance parcel of vacant land on Bunnerong Rd, in Sydney.
In the early 2000s I came across a report issued by Interpol about Australia. Somewhat alarming and explained much.
Interpol stated that they ranked Australia the number one destination in the world for 'dirty money'. Furthermore they went on to say that they had traced every known organised crime group in the world to washing money in Australia - predominantly through property. There was an asterisk after that statement (being a pedant 2 guesses to what happened next). I look at the note and it said see appendix - so I did.
The appendix had countries, listed in alphabetical order, in two columns per page. Underneath each country were listed the Interpol identifed organised crime groups. This went on for 17 pages (IIRC). Who knew there were/are 5 organised crime groups operating in Thailand?
A friend increased my understanding on that score by asking me 'Where do you think the biggest airport is adjacent to the Golden Triangle?'
Enough said.
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If the 'crackdown' by including accountants, lawyers etc this time is real then the unintended consequences may be not so good for the banks but much better for hopeful property owners.
BTW - Austrac/Fintrac - as a result of reading the Interpol report I wondered how many prosecutions they'd launched since 1989 (IIRC) through to 2003? Hundreds, dozens, or less than one hand's worth?
Even worse, from what I found out - the only prosecutions launched had been as the result of front page articles appearing for multiple days in multiple newspapers. Such as insider trading by a Macquarie Bank Executive Director (for which a hard working lady working at CBA Stock Exchange branch had been threatened with the sack for trying to get something done about this man who kept coming in for $9,900 bank cheques).
So I dug further.
I asked a major bank's tech head, I knew well, about dealing with the Authority. He laughed and said that there was (don't think it had changed by 2003) no requirements about how to send the data other than it was required quarterly. So, he mentioned he thought, that each bank sent it in a different fornat. After a few years, he suspected that nothing was being done with the data - so for two years he had it sent in a different format each quarter. The bank was never contacted about it. Then, with a huge grin he said he'd decided to find out for certain and for several quarters they sent blank tapes. They were never contacted.
After that they sent the tapes, with the required data, in the same format every quarter.
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Hopefully since then Austrac/Fintrac ceased just being a cynical political exercise of 'seen to be done' but in reality had been nothing more than a confidence trick on the law abiding Australian public. However up until May this year wasn't Australia's rank in the 'actively working to minimise money laundering' around 197th out of 205 countries?
For every CBA share traded, someone was willing to buy at that price and someone was willing to sell at that same price. Does that help?
OK I know, we'd like to know what the "professionals" are doing so I've been following (academically) the CBA shorts, people putting real money into selling CBA shares which they don't own. It's good for a laugh (eventually they'll get it right)
I know when I had access to Austrac data as an analyst in Customs in the early 2000's we learnt that a major bank had sent in some meaningless or blank data records for several months before it was noticed. I am not sure if the bank owned up or if it was detected by Austrac. As far as I am aware there were no repercussions.
Having worked investment banking alongside the equities team, I know there is a lot of truth in that statement. But I hope if you get a couple of them together, they might give me a bit of an idea of how things might go.
Perhaps CBA up a little by midday, perhaps to around $132.50?? Is that good enough prediction for you? No idea how it might fair later in the day, or tomorrow, or next week, or next ...
Thanks, I guess, for the cynical comments about brokers and not knowing the future; as I said, I was 10 years in investment banking and the analysts were on the next floor down from me. So I know how it goes; don't expect anything has changed much since then.
But there are some good analysts out there - these are the ones that you can't find on the internet - and I was hoping someone who may have access to some client or HNW type reports might share the recommendations to guide me on an important decision I'll be making soon.
On CBA, those interested in the sell or keep question might look like to look at the article in the AFR today
basically quoting research suggesting that big stocks are much more valuable in a portfolio in the long-term than small ones and the expectations that they will rise and fall like other stocks might not be the case.
Balance, yearly income, monthly income, interest for the year
and this starts from around 67 years old for 15 years. It's very rough and I'm using an updated superannuation balance as today and interest calculation of 2.9% which I calculate on lowest balance of the year. With current super balance and me taking out about 10% each year I'm short of super money lasting 15 years.
No one knows what interest is going to do but should I increase the interest projection to a higher percentage?
Note end result is the higher the yearly income the more trips we can afford to Thailand each year.
What is that interest rate based on? It's only slightly above CPI for the past 10 years (2.66%) and so the interest in your calculation is almost eroding your balance before you even get a chance to. I've seen anywhere from 5-8% generally depending on investment choice, and I'd personally just use whatever the 10 year average your Super Fund uses in your statements/portal, but if you were deliberately subtracting CPI from the returns to show "real" returns, perhaps that is a reasonably accurate figure?
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At $120 I thought I wouldn't miss a few ....
Having worked investment banking alongside the equities team, I know there is a lot of truth in that statement. But I hope if you get a couple of them together, they might give me a bit of an idea of how things might go. 
