Superannuation Discussion + market volatility

I think you are overstating the risk somewhat.

1) Not all loans have LMI
2) The LMI Insurer is not responsible for all the debt, only what cannot be recovered by sale, (even then they can still come after the borrower last time I heard)
3) You are assuming that LMI insurers are totally stupid, i.e. are totally unaware this is a risk and haven't put risk mitigations in place, e.g reinsurance of a significant part of their portfolio to reduce risk

Not suggesting there is no risk, just that it's not quite of the magnitude you suggest. A full on market debacle like the GFC sure, but I'm more confident than you they could ride out the current market stress.
Not at all. These businesses don't exist for the reason you suggest they exist.

They are simply an outworking of the fact that regulators require insurance companies and banks to hold different amounts of capital for identical risk profiles, simply because one is a bank and one is an insurance company.

For years banks were allowed to fully own their LMI insurer (called a 'captive' insurer). Loans were written by the bank, the 'insured risk' transferred to a wholly owned subsidiary (the LMI captive) and then the capital requirements for the group became substantially less. The risk for the group wasn't less, just reapportioned from one subsidiary company called the 'Retail Bank' to another subsidiary company called the 'LMI Captive', but it allowed them to hold significantly less capital.

I know the LMI insurers aren't totally stupid. They understand that the banks are simply 'renting' their statutory capital at a cheaper rate than they could get by holding capital themselves. But they're also very cyclical businesses, making a lot of money across the majority of the cycle before facing the inevitable in a downturn. There's a very good reason why there's a lot less LMI insurers now than there was 30 years ago and it comes down to a question of survivorship.
 

and so we have the March 2023 figures

2,592,695

Dec 22 was 2,576,580

age profile is this
age 66.5-69

1 July 2021 age raised to 66.5 so some people had to wait upto 6 months to become eligible after 1 January 2022...

despite this 6 month backlog, the number of recipients has been trending down (especially when approx 259,000 qualify each year by age)
every 3 month period approx 64,000 people become age eligible

December 2021 415,034
March 2022 404,040
June 2022 398,070
September 2022 394,742
December 2022 396,350
March 2023 396,775

Census August 2021 August 2016
65-69 years 1,298,460 1,188,999
70-74 years 1,160,768 887,715
75-79 years 821,920 652,661
80-84 years 554,598 460,550
85 years & over 542,342 486,845
total 4,378,088 3,676,770

total age
pensioners 2,574,643 2,556,410
Sept 2021 Sept 2016
58.8% 69.5%
so of the 701,318 extra only a net 18,233 (2.6%) have taken up age pension

and this is what's coming along!
FYI 60-64 years 1,468,097 1,299,400
so the June 2023 figures have arrived

slight increase
June 2023 2,598,190
March 2023 2,592,695
Dec 22 was 2,576,580

the 66-69 age group continues to trend down
June 2023 391,905
March 2023 396,775

of course, because the age has now increased to 67, there will be no new applicants until after 1 January 2024


the 90 & over age group has slightly increased
June 2023 156,335
March 2023 154,660
 
We were abought out of our business on Thursday and will now be advisors for a good period of time so we can consider topping up our SMSF before we reach 75 years of age. Mrscove is younger so she has more time but as always we will do the topping up together.
i just need to get my knee replacement handled on October 15th so i am not walking bone on bone and we can get back to being able to travel. We are exiting the business with lots of points and miles for hotels and airlines.
 
We were abought out of our business on Thursday and will now be advisors for a good period of time so we can consider topping up our SMSF before we reach 75 years of age. Mrscove is younger so she has more time but as always we will do the topping up together.
i just need to get my knee replacement handled on October 15th so i am not walking bone on bone and we can get back to being able to travel. We are exiting the business with lots of points and miles for hotels and airlines.
You have worked hard so now enjoy the well deserved next phase. The new knee will be ready to carry you along the next adventures!
 
Yes the pressures of running a business have ended.
i still found myself looking up kitco.com for the exchange rates and the multiple bank accounts to see which debtors had paid. I really don’t need to do that now.
I think most of my school chums started to retire about 13 years before me.
If any one wants to contact the tax auditor i haven’t shredded her contact details. That audit wasted over 6 months of my spare working hours right at the time of those east coast floods that cut our road and rail services.
Have made a voluntary contribution to our super fund on the weekend because that is allowed. I was stunned that the payment arrived from Westpac to ANZ in just a few minutes on Sunday.
Our friends last night mentioned The World ship but Mrscove has not done well with sea sickness in the past.
I want to get our next social housing project to Yes this year to do our bit to fight homelessness.seeing all our Governments are making a hash of it at the moment.
Getting my knee replacement and my next colonoscopy are health priorities.
Staying healthy is a big part of our plan now.
 
Congratulations @cove on your well earned retirement! A fruitful working life and now to enjoy the benefits and look after some important self care matters.
Best wishes to you and Mrs Cove, enjoy those things that are good for the soul. 😊
 
Yes the pressures of running a business have ended.
i still found myself looking up kitco.com for the exchange rates and the multiple bank accounts to see which debtors had paid. I really don’t need to do that now.
I think most of my school chums started to retire about 13 years before me.
If any one wants to contact the tax auditor i haven’t shredded her contact details. That audit wasted over 6 months of my spare working hours right at the time of those east coast floods that cut our road and rail services.
Have made a voluntary contribution to our super fund on the weekend because that is allowed. I was stunned that the payment arrived from Westpac to ANZ in just a few minutes on Sunday.
Our friends last night mentioned The World ship but Mrscove has not done well with sea sickness in the past.
I want to get our next social housing project to Yes this year to do our bit to fight homelessness.seeing all our Governments are making a hash of it at the moment.
Getting my knee replacement and my next colonoscopy are health priorities.
Staying healthy is a big part of our plan now.
Congratulations and well done on the social housing. Our family had a ticket in the big lotto recently and if we won (which of course we didn't) I was going to spend some money on social housing.
 
To do social housing we have a builder partner. Without that it would be difficult to get projects thru councils. Then we have no concessions from governments and their agencies.
Today we were investing funds in our SMSF.
 
Congratulations @cove
Welcome to the world of new beginnings !

Humourous but
I doubt we will see a new business “Joyce Cove & Co” spin up Astaire in the new Broadway season
Nothing will ever rival Mel Brooks “Springtime for Hitler”: A Gay Romp With Adolf and Eva at Berchtesgaden

It is a fictional musical in Mel Brooks' 1967 film The Producers
 
so the June 2023 figures have arrived

slight increase
June 2023 2,598,190
March 2023 2,592,695
Dec 22 was 2,576,580

the 66-69 age group continues to trend down
June 2023 391,905
March 2023 396,775

of course, because the age has now increased to 67, there will be no new applicants until after 1 January 2024


the 90 & over age group has slightly increased
June 2023 156,335
March 2023 154,660
Well September 2023 figures dropped on 1 December

Age pension have dropped
Some to do with no new entrants until 2024….
IMG_1919.png
13,000 less

IMG_1922.png
22,000 less in 66-69

Each year roughly an extra 260,000 come eligible less 130,000 deaths
And the figures are going nowhere ….
 
Well finally the super tax cuts which will pay for First class tics arrived !

On top will be a 2% CPI adjustment from 1 January

On top of that FREE Public transport for life
Bike and I can ride further and train home !

Nice little earner !
 
Well finally the super tax cuts which will pay for First class tics arrived !

On top will be a 2% CPI adjustment from 1 January

On top of that FREE Public transport for life
Bike and I can ride further and train home !

Nice little earner !
For me I need to wait to see the CPI for defined benefit
 
Well finally the super tax cuts which will pay for First class tics arrived !

On top will be a 2% CPI adjustment from 1 January

On top of that FREE Public transport for life
Bike and I can ride further and train home !

Nice little earner !
Which super tax cuts? I don’t remember any recent legislation in this area?

Who gets FREE public transport for life?
 
Which super tax cuts? I don’t remember any recent legislation in this area?

Who gets FREE public transport for life?

Sorry was hitting Preservation age
So tax-free and 10% tax offsets are now available


That info is out of date
It was an election promise
South Australian Seniors Card members can travel for free
on Adelaide Metro buses, trains and trams – all day, every day.
 

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