Tasmanian election 2018

[Quickstatus]

If the Libs can get a 14th seat which division will it come from?

Currently:
Franklin 2
Lyons 3
Braddon 3
Denison 2
Bass 3

Franklin or Lyons?

Also in the age of supercomputers why does the system take days once the trigger is pulled. Is there a substantial manual element?

 

[RooFlyer]

Current view of less politicians the better is populist but in reality as politicians are most often party based, they can’t possibly represent the diverse views in their electorate - leading to the usual chorus that no one listers.

There was some good discussion on local ABC radio about this. The point being made is that the current low numbers is not so much about being able to form a decent Ministry (although that's debatable!) but rather a good Parliament, where having an actual government back-benchers who can hold the ministry to account (to a degree) but also are still free to get amongst the constituents - the point you make.

Academic said that a Lower house should be {(# in ministry x 4) + 1}. That is, governing party will hold about half the seats, and the backbench should be at least half the number of the government. This ignores the Upper House, because in Tas that's usually Independent dominated. For Tas, that would mean a Lower house of about 40 (8 in each electorate) as opposed to current 25.

Although there would be an outcry about extra cost, the Government - both sides - has employed a LOT of advisers and other helpers because each Minister has 2 or 3 major portfolios.

In my seat of Lyons, all 3 Lib members are Ministers, and one of the 2 Labor members is the Leader of the Opposition. Not much opportunity for getting out amongst the punters.

 

[Quickstatus]

...Although there would be an outcry about extra cost, the Government - both sides - has employed a LOT of advisers and other helpers because each Minister has 2 or 3 major portfolios.

In my seat of Lyons, all 3 Lib members are Ministers, and one of the 2 Labor members is the Leader of the Opposition. Not much opportunity for getting out amongst the punters.

The counter to more politicians resulting in less advisers/consultants is that usually politicians do not necessarily come from diverse backgrounds and so advisers/consultants are necessary because of the limited life experience of the candidates.

The US system of an Executive (with in theory non politician secretaries of portfolios) and Congress is not necessarily better either.

 

[RooFlyer]

Also in the age of supercomputers why does the system take days once the trigger is pulled. Is there a substantial manual element?

Not sure. There are pictures in local media web sites showing people with named vote piles in front of them, including 'exhausted' (indicating its part of current count). Must be some manual component, or cross checking as they go.

The counter to more politicians resulting in less advisers/consultants

Another one is that more politicians will probably not result in less advisers and other hangers-on

 

[Quickstatus]

Not sure. There are pictures in local media web sites showing people with named vote piles in front of them, including 'exhausted' (indicating its part of current count). Must be some manual component, or cross checking as they go.

Well supercomputers can be affected by the hanging chad (GIGO). So probably better to have human scrutineers.

Question about the Robson Rotation - the rotation of candidates names on the electoral ticket so no one is favoured. Im unclear. Are the candidate name order randomly printed so that no one candidate is favoured at the top and no ticket is in a particular order?

....

Another one is that more politicians will probably not result in less advisers and other hangers-on

The greater the entourage the greater the hubris which pollies crave

 

[RooFlyer]

To my chagrin, the Green got up in Franklin - so now 2 in the parliament. I think Libs will stand on 13, which is a majority, but with having to supply the Speaker, will always need the Speaker's casting vote to pass legislation that Labor opposes (Greens will oppose nearly everything).

 

[Quickstatus]

Close...

 

[RooFlyer]

Final: 13, 10, 2.

And Tasmania becomes the first state to elect a majority of female lower house members.